Missed Opportunities and Winship

I sold Alcatel-Lucent (ADR) [[ALU]] too damn early. When I bought the fucker, I had a long term thesis in mind. Yet, when my gains eclipsed 25%, I sold it like a degenerate OTB guy. That story has and will continue to repeat itself, as long as I invest. It’s part of the territory, a trade off of sorts—good risk management for missed opportunities.

Over the past few months, I made money—but missed out on bigger money— in TriQuint Semiconductor [[TQNT]] , OmniVision Technologies, Inc. [[OVTI]] , Atheros Communications, Inc. [[ATHR]] , Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation [[BGFV]] , Ciena Corporation [[CIEN]] , Cavium Networks, Inc. [[CAVM]], Office Depot, Inc. [[ODP]] , Crocs, Inc. [[CROX]] etc. The list goes on and on.

In the past, I was a little more methodical with my sells, leaking out little by little. I would have big fancy spreadsheets attached to my Thomson Reuters quote system, giving me real time asset allocation analysis, effectively helping me micro-manage myself to death. Then, one day, it dawned on me: I was WASTING time analyzing a small cup of coffee, when I could be glancing proudly at a whole pot, if only I went to work.

I have a brain like a “space alien magician” and I do not need the luxuries of imbecilic spreadsheets, in order to determine my appropriate allocation. I told you fuckers, long ago, I am performing art, not science, here, on a daily basis—for all the world to see. I make mistakes and I hit the small crap jackpots, every so often. The one constant, through all the ups and down, “The Fly” wins. That’s all there is to it. Winshippery.

Regarding today’s tape: I sense a more robust charge today, led by the coke induced bulls. Once again, retail stocks, like Dollar Tree, Inc. [[DLTR]] , New York & Company, Inc. [[NWY]] , Family Dollar Stores, Inc. [[FDO]] and Shoe Carnival, Inc. [[SCVL]] , are ripping to the upside. With my money, I am looking to up my stakes in a variety of refiners and buy a couple retail names.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE: I bought 50,000 TerreStar Corporation [[TSTR]] , in the high $1.20’s. I bought 5,000 Barnes & Noble, Inc. [[BKS]] in the low $21’s. And, I bought 2,000 Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] @ $13.69.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8z13AjI8n4I&feature=related 616 500]

Damn this circus. I sold out of Sterling Financial Corporation [[STSA]] and American Capital Ltd. [[ACAS]] . Surprisingly, I find myself without emotion, despite getting poleaxed in the aforementioned names. This market is beginning to annoy me. It’s like a little dog, gnawing at my shoes. I will kick that dog into an electric wired fence, should it try to bite my balls off. If some of you dog lovers took offense to that comment, offer up your balls to some random pitbull’s jaws.

The market is just snapping at people, from the long and short side. Candidly, Le Fly is all about not giving a fuck.

Pardon the thin summer commentary, good people of the internet. I have been partaking in numerous personal, life altering events, which—unequivocally—keep me busy. No worries, sometime soon, I will be back to trading like a coked out surgeon, in the middle of a war stricken area.

Top picks: refiners.

As much as I would like to talk shit to the bears for getting mugged, day in and day out, I am noticing some underlying weakness in a variety of names/sectors. Today, I am “enjoying” my third blow up in three weeks, with this fuck of a stock American Capital Ltd. [[ACAS]] biting the homo hammer. I find myself rather complacent in the face of losses, mainly because—well—the market is my bitch. Every so often, she slaps me back. Today is one of those days.

Part of me wants to believe in the turn, as memories of past occurrences, particularly 1998, flood my mind with visions of grandeur. Another side of me thinks this market is a floating pile of shit, being buoyed by some sort of asshole submarine, directly underneath. I guess, the best course of action is to correct my errors as I go along and try to reduce my downside exposure, in order to lock in my gains.

With that in mind, I’ve decided to cut loose a few losers. There is no point, whatsoever, to hold onto a loser—no matter how extraordinary the situation is. Don’t worry, Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] lovers, I am not selling “The FTK-tard” yet.

My advice, in a nutshell, play small and bold; but prepare for that floating pile of shit to get eaten by some sort of deranged/homeless polar bear.

This market is soooo predictable, so boring, it’s putting me to sleep. It’s like beating up on an armless man, just too damn easy. I miss the old days, when people would freak the fuck out, over large capital losses, and exclaim: “the world is ending, it really is this time.”

Apparently, the housing market is showing sincere signs of a rebound. Look, I don’t know how “real” this turn is. All I know, people are believing it. Hence the term applies: “fake it until you make it.”

At any rate, one of the stocks on my 4g watchlist, Syniverse Holdings, Inc. [[SVR]] , is breaking the fuck out on news that they are buying Verisign’s messaging service. WTF?!? This whole market is a little wacky; try not to get too emotionally attached.

With my money, still, I like the refiners. And, for a 3 point move, I like General Cable Corporation [[BGC]] .

NOTE to Third Tier Bloggers: The PPT can now be sold via affiliate agreement.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfES21G-rQc&fmt=18 616 500]

Don’t look now, but if Dell Inc. [[DELL]] is about to turn the corner, buoyed by robust PC sales, this market will boot stomp the bears into dust. A new leg up in PC sales will sop up all excess supply of DRAM and Flash memory chips, resulting in a renaissance in chip names. Stocks like Best Buy Co., Inc. [[BBY]] and Logitech International SA (USA) [[LOGI]] will blow away estimates, thanks to end user demand. Naturally, it’s hard to believe anyone is buying anything, if you watch the fat faced Glenn Beck or frequent stupid panic blogs, like (fill in the blank).

My point is this: “The Fly” has been spending money like a drunken sailor. I have no respect for the recession and how it has fucked up people’s lives. Last time I checked, I was flying high, hitting all time highs. So, don’t come here with your bullshit stories of Armageddon. Plutonium Petey has a fucking time machine and the future looks bright.

In closing, I like the refiners here, specifically Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] , Holly Corporation [[HOC]] and Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] . Additionally, I like Sunstone Hotel Investors, Inc [[SHO]] , Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , Complete Production Services, Inc. [[CPX]] , Hercules Offshore, Inc. [[HERO]] and TeleCommunication Systems, Inc. [[TSYS]] . Now get the fuck out of here and go eat a burger.

I bought 10,000 Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] @ $6.40

Disclaimer: If you buy WNR because of this post, your dog will get run over by a garbage truck. And, you may lose money.

I am buying the refiners and doing it with style and in size. Before August is done, I will own positions in Western Refining, Inc. [[WNR]] , Tesoro Corporation [[TSO]] , Holly Corporation [[HOC]] , Delek US Holdings, Inc. [[DK]] , Alon USA Energy, Inc. [[ALJ]] and Frontier Oil Corporation [[FTO]] . Naturally, should a fierce, gold chain wearing, hurricane come barreling through the Gulf now, I will sell my refiner stocks for 25%+ profits. But, without a ‘Cane of Horror and Death, the refiners are due to run anyway.

Additionally, if you are short Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] , as a money manager, it is your fiduciary responsibility to cover your position. It is INSANE to be short FTK, in the 1’s, while in the midst of a hurricane season. With 25% of the shares sold short and financing shored up, I believe the stock is about to go on a “banana run” back to $2.50 minimum.

As you can see, the market does not want to trade lower. There are many FAZtarded individuals out there, who are gluttons for capital losses, via betting against this rally at every turn. However, for me, with over 60% gains year to date, there is no reason for me to try to time the top via short sales. Instead, simply, I will raise cash and wait for a better buying opportunity. Nonetheless, right now, this bitch is not done going higher.

Top picks: TSO, FTK, Hercules Offshore, Inc. [[HERO]]

And I am ready to fuck you up. Don’t let a little market magic get in the way of you making all sorts of ridiculous mistakes. By the way, have you noticed the INSANE accuracy of my market picks?

You want advice? You want to make some coin?

Take a look at the darn refiners.

Night-night fuckfaces.