The internet is a wonderful place, full of arm-chair analysts, who have zero industry experience. These people type long essays, prognosticating dire events, specifically for the U.S. Despite other nations having much worse fundamentals, these one man think tanks declare “The US will crash again,” under a heap of treasury bills. They throw out big numbers, like 55 trillion, and exclaim “it’s only a matter of time until the U.S. double dips itself into depression.”
Instead of trying to out-think the one man think tankers, I offer a phrase in rebuttal: “who gives a fuck?”
If the internet is well aware of these numbers, so are foreign central banks. It is my understanding, foreign central bankers (particularly the Asian ones), enjoy the current arrangement, with regards to America buying their crap in order to fuel their growth.
So, before you money losers dive in head first, short this market, keep in mind that Black Swan events (2008 credit crisis) do not occur often and are NEVER forecasted by cretins from the internet.
I have meetings to attend for the remainder of the day. Sometime tonight, iBC will issue 2010 predictions, from all tabbed bloggers, on one big PDF file, for your review. In the meantime, enjoy the bull market and feel free to flick your lit cigars at the doom and gloom, burlap sweater wearing, beartards.
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Have to agree!
I couldn’t have said it better, buy before your neighbor does.
I’m good with riding the debt driven bull for awhile, but beware. The potential fuckery on the horizon is unprecedented. Stay thirsty my friends.
Going along with the theme of the post, TIM (who has been incredibly boring for the last 3 months) puts out this:
‘My general impression these days is that the ones who have done the best in 2009, and who are most optimistic that Things Are All Right Now, are at the low end of the IQ scale, or at least the experience & knowledge scale. ‘
So for all of you who beat the S&P this year, be assured it’s only because you are stupid OR inexperienced.
Stupid and one year richer bitches.
Stupid is as stupid does
He really is unbelievable.
There’s a famous Flannery O’Connor short story called “A Good Man is Hard to Find,” about this family that gets hijacked and marched off to the woods and shot by a brutal gang of killers led by “the Misfit.”
One of the main characters is this total pain in the ass biatch grandmother (the cause, really of the whole family getting murdered) who gets one in the mouth at the end in a literal “coup de grace.”
The Misfit, pausing to reflect on his deed provides this epitaph on the know-it-all, selfish biatch grandmother:
“She would have been a good woman . . . if it had been somebody there to shoot her every minute of her life.”
Fitting, as well, for the soi-disant “soopah genius” proprietor of the Dope Slope.
________
There is a lot of software guys who maybe had a lucky year {2008} and now are stock gurus. The websight or blog might be slick or attractive , but they cant trade worth a shit . Some of them have quite a following , but so did Jim Jones
Short sellers have an issue with thinking along the lines of making money. Again, they might do well in a think tank, not so much investing money.
don’t know who TIM is, but have to laugh at that comment that the people who made money this year are stupid with low IQs while those who stayed short and lost money are smart. do the people making their apocalyptic calls about a new low understand that the most powerful nation in the world is committed to avoid that scenario? Did they not see fannie and freddie have unimited support for the next few years? Yes we have problems but better to be the US with some problems than any other nation. When the banks paid back the Tarp I took it as the Fed and Treasury have full confidence they can prevent a new low. Geithner is even on the record as saying they can prevent it The bubble era is over and we are in a new era that might end up being a stock picker’s paradise. 2010 is a world of stock oppourtunity for those who can abandon their obsession with the stability of the system and realize we have a foreseeable period of normalcy due to the trillions pumped into the economy. We might eventually sink, but not in the near term.
I’ll gladly take being called “that tipe of stoopid” [sic] right to the bank (or the beach, or the new villa, or the new sports car, etc., etc., etc).
I urge y’all to check out CBST numbers & valuation.
Good find, with a solid balance sheet. I estimate the value at a conservative $7 a share, which puts it at a fairly cheap premium, considering the present market conditions.
However, I’ve taken a blood oath to never, ever, dabble in the pharmaceuticals industry. Take this stock for instance. They are completely dependent on the drug Cubicin, used to treat MRSA. If anything should happen to the ability of that drug to combat the ever adapting infection known as Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, if a superior competitor should emerge, or if the year 2016 (the end of the patent, as I understand it) should be reached without them developing other dependable lines of medicine, this company will get ground into dust.
Just something for people to consider, before jumping in feet first. Though for a mid cap pharmaceutical company, this one looks pretty stable; I’ll credit it that.
Cain,
Thanks for your input. For the record, I hate pharma and never buy in this sector. This one, though, is cheap and solid…had to go for it. Cubicin sales are growing and it’s as stable a product, in my estimation, as can be in pharma. They estimate that soon they can do $1b in this drug alone. The way Cubicin sales are growing, that’s not unlikely.
I dig your analysis; could I convince you to offer your opinion on FUQI? Another favorite of mine.
PS, CBST’s forward PE of 12 doesn’t hurt, either, considering its growth.
Cubicin has been big winner and continues to win business- especially in MRSA blood infections. Also, there has been to push to use higher doses of drug . Couple of drugs that could compete a little are recently approved and released Telavancin from Astellas, and new drug from JNJ awaiting approval-Ceftobiprole. However, neither of these will likely be used much for serious blood stream infections in which Cubicin is becoming a preferred drug. Bottom line is that Cubicin sales will likely stay strong for now.
Cheers to that.
Okay, I’ve completed my assessment as best I could and am somewhat torn on the subject of FUQI. On the one hand, at first glance, I loved the name. It has a wonderful set of books, complete with everything that you could want in a company. It’s part of an industry with a heavy exposure to precious metals, which at present I think could turn the name into a runner all on it’s own, thanks to continued dollar fuckery. It has very little debt (although it just borrowed quite a bit of money for short term expenditures, for some odd reason), an estimated value of under $10 (let’s just say $9, with a 2:1 risk margin) and a mountain of cash.
The level of cash, actually, is almost excessive. I wondered why a company would require that much, especially with the way the PM’s have been behaving recently. This is more JakeGint’s line of work, but I think that PM’s are rather cyclical, so it’s possible that they are just getting out of the selling season of high prices to make their way into the buying season, and that’s the reason for the cash. At any rate, the lingering question of cash set me to actually dig into their inner most pages of font, and what I found was a little unsettling, although certainly not offsetting.
If you take a trip towards the bottom of their latest filing, it says straightforward that:
As required by Rule 13a-15(b) under the Securities Exchange Act…
We did not maintain effective control over the period-end closing process. Due to the insufficient number of qualified resources, we were unable to timely and accurately complete our work needed to close our books and prepare financial statements in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America for period covered by this report. In addition, this control deficiency could result in a material misstatement to annual or interim financial statements that would not be prevented or detected.
We did not maintain effective control over the revenue cycle with revenue recognition. We did not properly perform and follow the control procedures set forth in the revenue cycle. This control deficiency resulted in significant amounts of sales not being recorded in the proper periods.
So, let’s review. I really do like the name, I think the business is well poised in a beaten down industry to become a leading force of foreign luxury goods. They have a surplus of cash with which to acquire competition and expand business. Luxury goods as a whole are generally cheap at the moment, and any modest recovery could lead to this name making gargantuan movement to the upside. Also, this company should have a distinct advantage because it is laden with precious metals which should easily offset any further damage to consumer spending when coupled with the initiatives of global governments to enact quantitative easing.
But, because this company is, in fact, a manufacturer of luxury goods, I should expect to see more distress on their books. It actually concerns me, how well they seem to be doing, when they admit in their own report that they haven’t followed basic requirements which would be expected of any U.S. company. I’d feel better if I could at least pinpoint some defficiency in their assets or a gross liability somewhere.
All in all, I will probably buy some of this name myself. It really looks to good to pass up. However, I’d recommend erring on the conservative side, scaling back from the full amount you would normally contribute, just in case.
Your thoroughness is appreciated, sir. I think this is a $25 to $30 stock that’s been beaten down by the furious short-sellers.
I flipped it last week for 12% in 2 days; couldn’t pass up the easy gain, had to sell. I’m back in now, thinking I will give it some time to see if we can hit a double.
Awesome, I’m glad you put it on my radar. It’s definitely worth a look, especially if it turns out their current reporting is accurate. I’d go long in a decisive way, if I could confirm that. I’ll likely go long a little anyway, just in case they are.
The latest GMCR move (forget any subsequent move in either direction) got me wondering if Fly or anyone else would like to blog about their sale rules…if they have them. Or is it a gut feel. Don’t know how many times I watched a good gain only to give it all back. Right now sitting with a good gain 30%+ in since middle of Nov in JST. Shoulda, woulda, coulda.
The Fly has one rule, climb into time machine like a SAM, fly into the future, check price, fly back, trade accordingly!
Wondering — it depends on your system and timeframe. If your swingtrading, which is what i do, ive found through backtesting that once you get a 15% or so gain, you are best off tightening a stop to 2% or so.
I think velocity of gains is also probably cause for taking some off the table, such as here with GMCR. Long story short — ride your winners, but once they’re pretty big winners, don’t give your gains back…..na mean?
FLY~
Shove it up your ass, you stupid cock sucker.
love
mb
See? “Internet Gangster” needs to be added to the dictionary.
Oh no, say it aint so: The Krull is closing down:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTZzIJXzae0
He should become a stock broker.
Fly,
What do you think of Sprott asset management? They are big believers in gold..
Sprott has their head up their asses
Looking for Gold ? I dont think they will find it up there
Indubitably, gentlemen of the first ordeur, and soon to be vigourously rewarded, perhaps with cucumber cakes after a solid nine down on the Eton pitch.
Your natural knee-jerk cantankerousity aside, how can you like GROW and not Sprott?
______
Because GROW is a stock and Sprott is an ass.
The Leauw (sic) is an ass.
GROW is an ASS-et managuer. Heavy in gold, indued.
________
Seriously! That’s your answer?
Tim is just angry at the world because he lost most his capital this year. It’s hysterical, I can’t believe he made that comment.
What a clown. He draws stupid freaking lines on a chart and thinks he can have an edge over others.
Are you talking about Tim E. Coyote, soooopah genius?
_____
Hi Jake:
No I’m not , I’m talking that other genius who’s lost all his capital shorting stocks all year and who is now suggesting that people that made money this year aren’t as smart as he is (for losing all of his).
It takes a special mind to post that on the web. Amazing hubris.
I hate to admit it, but I used to read his site quite a bit. That was when I first started reading trading blogs. Fortunately after about a month of that shit he posted the infamous “auto mechanics class” blog. Decided to check this place out and never went back other than to stare in disbelief.
About a week ago there was a classic post over there. Mr. Knight called 2009 the year of the lottery long and was saying 2010 will be the year of the lottery short. OK, I’m still new to all this stuff; but I would have serious reservations about trading lottery plays on the short side since your potential gain is finite and your potential losses are unlimited. Seems like a disaster in the making. The carnage that could be unleashed using that foolish strategy is unfathomable.
Po:
I think it was the flymiester who described the trading style Timmey preaches as ideological trading.
Ideological trading will rip your balls off (in this age of gender equality… ones ovaries would be lost in the same way).
He thinks he’s the only one able to see the damage caused by macro policy we’re currently living through. However he forgets that private firms are at times able to navigate through the obstacle courses stupid government set up for them and continue to prosper.
The stock market is not the economy as that eternally wise man (Milt Friedman) once said.
The motor mechanics post was a classic, wasn’t it. It was all down hill from there. Never fuck with IBC all you lose all your capital is my motto
It’s a good thing nobody draws lines on charts ovah heah, xcept for that cock and balls formation…
Fly – and anyone else — what is your take on the post Holiday market action? I’ve started getting very jittery — feels very much like the calm before the storm. I have this feeling we get a decent january selloff (5%-10%) due to people taking some off the table before earnings.
I have lightened up my load considerably — plan on going into next week holding but one single issue, which is a biotech company.
Say what you want about Sprott but he’s not an idiot, best hedge fund mananger from the great white north. His hedge fund has “returned 496 percent over the past nine years while the S&P 500 lost 32 percent”. You have to respect those numbers even if you disagree with his opinions…..
Doom and gloomer
Agreed, and his latest stuff about market going below March lows seem idiotic but his returns are fantastic. So maybe he’s a dumb talker but smart trader. In the end all that matters is that he makes tons of $$ for his clients.