Courtesy of The PPT, here is a list of stocks that have vastly underperformed the market in 2009, all basic material stocks, with % of shares sold short over 10% and ytd returns of less than 10%. Naturally, it comes as no surprise, Flotek Industries, Inc. [[FTK]] is in the mix (fuckers).
Potential Late Bloomers (% of shares sold short, ytd return)
| 1 | EXH | BASIC MATERIALS | 11.40 | 9.48 |
| 2 | RES | BASIC MATERIALS | 14.30 | 9.21 |
| 3 | GGC | BASIC MATERIALS | 14.30 | 7.63 |
| 4 | USU | BASIC MATERIALS | 15.30 | 6.08 |
| 5 | GSI | BASIC MATERIALS | 11.50 | 0.51 |
| 6 | SWSI | BASIC MATERIALS | 10.30 | -2.30 |
| 7 | CENX | BASIC MATERIALS | 16.20 | -7.20 |
| 8 | GDP | BASIC MATERIALS | 24.50 | -9.52 |
| 9 | WTI | BASIC MATERIALS | 20.50 | -14.27 |
| 10 | FTK | BASIC MATERIALS | 19.80 | -19.05 |
| 11 | WNR | BASIC MATERIALS | 22.50 | -19.97 |
| 12 | ALY | BASIC MATERIALS | 12.60 | -20.36 |
| 13 | MMR | BASIC MATERIALS | 17.90 | -23.27 |
| 14 | SUN | BASIC MATERIALS | 10.80 | -33.65 |
| 15 | GMXR | BASIC MATERIALS | 21.80 | -39.97 |
fig
What will it take to get these homos moving Fly? I have been taking on positions in a basket of them including FTK.
Glad the PPT played WNR like the under performing bitch that it is.
digging a bit deeper, 4 of the 15 have fundamental PPT scores over 4. Tee Hee, get the PPT
fundy scores:
SWSI – 4.6
SUN – 4.3
RES – 4.25
WSI – 4.05
The only question I have is does it matter if Detroit wins or loses the game?
They will probably burn down Detroit (what’s left of it) win or lose.
The Tigers are the new Mets.
Ouch!
Watch it, gents…
Thanks Senor,
More than the thesis, bought some Flotek. At this point, their business can only go up. Who knows when but, whatever can happen, i.e. trouble in the Middle East… , oil & FTK are more likely to go up than down. And w the 20% short – make that a spike up. I don’t believe the Saudi’s. How is it that in all other oilfields in the world, production is declining; but not there. Right.
I believe the problem with FTK is that they are being squeezed like hell on their margins from their clients. Specialty chemical companies such as FTK took a fuggin beating late last year and early this year.
If you do business with a big dog (Shell, BP, Chevron, etc) they lock you into long-term pricing contracts… think 4 – 5 years. When commodity prices sky rocket such as 2006 – mid 2008 you’re still stuck selling to the client at prices established 3 years earlier. Margins shrink because your cost of supply has increased greatly. Consider yourself lucky if you get a minimal pricing increase during boom times. XOM and CVX didn’t make billions in quarterly profits by helping out their suppliers.
Even if you know supply costs are likely to increase over the period of the contract, you can’t build in too much into your offer. There is ALWAYS someone out there that’s going to bid cheap in order to increase market share.
Now here’s the fun part about working for an oilfield service company. As soon as commodity prices plummet (such as late 2008 early 2009), those same big clients expect you to slash your prices immediately. Bastards, all of them. If you aren’t willing to do it somebody else will so you are forced to choose between keeping the work at even further reduced margin or losing the work altogether.
Of course as soon as you slash your prices commodity prices begin to increase again. And you’re locked into another multi-year contract at shit prices. Now if you have some super duper specialty product that no one else has then you can tell the clients to fuck off a little bit more. Problem for FTK is they don’t have that. After perusing their product catalog it’s a bunch of old technology products that everyone has been selling for decades.
Sorry for the dissertation, but that’s my take on things as someone that’s been in this God forsaken industry for over 15 years.
thanks po
more info is always better.
do you think the average fund manage knows the above?
I don’t know any fund managers personally so cannot say for certain. I would hope they would be aware of such basic constraints to a business; but you never know.
A comment from Le Fly perhaps?
He’s busy dude, leave Le Fly alone, as at the moment the consort is readying his robe and various accouterments and preparing him for the days action.
Quae volumus, et credimus libenter.
Stamp’s Student Union, University of Maryland. (If someone else didn’t already beat me to the answer, I’d like to give the Gazillion dollar award back to you to be used to throw out the window of your space machine over New England when you are in a particularly benevolant mood– such as the afternoon we hit 10,500)
Coiling about my treasure horde tonight, I can’t help but be reminded of the noisome dangers of Smaug’s Lair.
Silver may be worth it, however.
__________
Jake,
A billionaire (I think he’s a billionaire; he doesn’t say) I know (well know of) also likes silver.
Billionaires often have a nose for undervalued assets.
I may speak of platinum today as well.
________
Jake-
While munching on a cinnamon bun, cast aside the platinum and take a look at its cohort in the platinum metals group- palladium. The futures have been performing better for it. The commodity is used for components in mobile phones, electronics, fuel cells, etc.
Been watching PAL for over a month now, and I keep being glad I haven’t pulled the trigger yet.
I have “trust issues” until it clears three bucks with gusto, ovah heah.
____
I think the miners of the raw material must have high operating costs because their stocks suck cock comb. The correct play off of platinum and palladium are companies that can fuck the consumer, particularly the Chinese ones who sit atop humpty dumpty levels of cash. I think the jewelers are the ones who are benefiting from the demand pull or inflation trade induced commodity price appreciation, whatever the driver is. Check out FUQI, TIF, BID, CWTR, HWD, JADE, NILE, and ZLC, all of which are looking to break out.
Knight watchman:
Hope for dopes spring’s eternal.
Based on the graph below, I would simply say:
1. A down day tomorrow – even a modest one – would be very good news for the bears in light of the last two back-to-back major up days;
2. A cross beneath 1020 on the $SPX would completely seal the deal;
3. The penetration – and retracement toward the underside – of the $SPX vis a vis its trendline (which dates back to the March low) is, to me, a thing of beauty.
Draw a line, connect a couple of price points and then call it a thing of beauty.
I was trying to think back to what I thought was the best example of his BS. Prevoiusly you or one of the other guys here mentioned the time he “accidentally” went long and made a big profit. I can’t remember that case specifically, but it may have been before my time. I only read that site on a regular basis for a month or two before I found out about this one via the Auto Mechanics class post.
For me, the greatest example of his deviousness (is that a word? fuck it, it is now) was back sometime in the spring. He put up a chart of LMT (Lockheed Martin) showing how it was prime to be shorted. Again, a couple of obscure points seemingly picked at random joined together with a line right above where the price was sitting. You’ve seen this a million times.
Any way, prior to him posting that graph there were press releases saying the defense department was cancelling further orders of one of the Air Force fighter jets made by LMT (F-22 I believe). Of course the price plummets and all the dopes start high-fiving him saying what a magician he was.
I always had my doubts, but that is officially when the slope jumped the shark in my mind.
When he’s really getting reamed he posts one of those trades of his where he supposedly shows you his account ledger “proving” the trade is real hours after the fact. Of course he enters just a little off the bottom and exits just before the top, imagine him trying to figure out just how close he can make those points so it all looks believable. The guy didn’t give anybody a sniff of this incredible trade when it was actually unfolding mind you and if anybody dares ask questions about what led him to his buy and sell targets he gets super-defensive or pretends to ignore it. The best is when he breaks out his performance graph as though once again he isn’t manipulating the shit out of that too. If you want credibility just post your entries and exits in a timely fashion, no need to record your trades or anything we’re smart enough to figure out if you know your shit or not.
Dear Alcoa Management Team,
No pressure today. The fate of the entire world’s economic recovery rests in your announcement this evening. No biggie.
Regards,
Teh World
P.S. Cook the damn books if you have to.
lol.
I’m sure Goldman will get to them and force them to cook the books. Go deep enough under the web swamp and I’m sure they’ll be someone making that suggestion.
they will miraculously beat by .01, on que.
Fly what is a week dollar
good for the market?
Can you do a piece on that.
you mean “weak”….?
LIQQOTD (Low IQ question of the day)
MON loss widens…….
par for the course.
And yet… not down by much.
Odd, no?
__________
not down much, but there again MON hasn’t moved with the rally over the last 8 months like everything else….I mean its 52 week low was 63.00ish it is only up 11 bucks from there at 74.00ish where all other stocks are up 100%-200% and some 300%-1200% off there 52 week lows.
Even MOS is up 100%…. so MON was never “up” very much. You can’t fall very far when you are only standing on the first rung of a ladder? no?
I am looking to get some MON if it dips in the 73.00-72.00 range for a long term play to hold thru next spring.
It’s a “long term play” to hold through… next Spring?
LOL.
Hold for your grandchildren.
Seriously, look at the five year chart (I’ve owned it for about six now). We are — today — right at about the 50% retrace and the “sign of recovery” will be a break of the 61.8% retrace at about $91.50 or so.
You can see we failed the last time we got there. I think if we are in a cyclical (ie, non-secular, short term) bull here, we may see that break on the next approach.
Trend line support should hold at $73.50 if you are looking for an entry.
_____________
I will hold for my children and use it as a bribe if need be.
In other words if they don’t change my Depends or they stick me in a crappy nursing home it will be NO stocks for you.
lol
I can see ’em tearing up the house now… “Where’s the Monsanto certs, dammit, where’s the Monsanto certs?? ”
_______
that’s funny, yep, that’s how it would work…..
we’ll have to bury them in the back and leave them a “treasury map”…a real complicated one, then the scramble will be “get the shovel and the mattock”!
yeh, long term for me is 3-6 months, I usually play in and out over 1-10 days, others may view long term in years, I don’t. But, MON is on my radar for an upside “if” earnings are o.k. over the next 3 weeks, for a winter into spring hold.
but there again…. who the hell knows.
I bought little LYTS the other day below 7 on Le Fly’s first recommendation and after a little PPT et al all digging.
The stock really has a good bid to it. It’s involved in the LED light installation business which means it has a good chance of big growth. It has really ugly liquidity and could only be described from now on as Henry Fool liquid, which is 50% of the stock’s value is the bid/offer spread as i found to my horror recently 🙂
It looks to me that it has a shot even over 10 bucks over the next few months and the LED light thingi sinks in.
LED’s offer real savings. I read somewhere that Phila will save a million $ a year in energy costs by replacing street lights with LED. Payback is a year or less – an easy decision even for broke governments looking to close budget gaps.
In lieu of GLW, I took down some AUO @ $9.45 ….
I had been watching CREE for a while, but never too a position. Maybe LYTS will give me an entry.
I’ve been holding and adding to CREE for a couple of years. Others can argue with me, but I think they are the best to own if you want an investment in the LED thesis.
I heard the fly trades with paper money, is that true?
That’s right ….. $5M greenbacks being converted to capital gains via space alien magician technique much to the chagrin of Timmay and you sheeple!
Haven’t heard “sheeple” since the DevilDog days.
Who gives a fuck, he’s not showing anybody his net worth so he can trade in rupee or beaver pelts or anything he wants as long as he provides timely entries and exits (which he does).
Paperboy
and what do you use, sea shells, you fucking idiot.
anyone have any thoughts on AMLM?
Teahouse:
Frankly I don’t believe anything he says and as far as I’m concerned he’s a bullshit artist of the first order. The things he’s said recently to cover up the fact that he’s lost money on this rally makes me disbelieve anything that fucker has ever claimed he’s made.
Wasn’t he using some self directed “wo-manual” trade entry system in the first place …. very suspect !!
Went back into QQQQ. Fuckit.
Im so bearish and underwater with my shorts. Im down like 75% since March. Im so depressed. Fly, please help.
I thought you looked a bit down today. Is this the reason you only did half a lap before getting out of the pool sobbing uncontrollably? Don’t worry, the snack stand opens in 15 minutes and you can console yourself with an Eskimo Pie.
Why did Bloomberg change their scroll, no more index futures in after hours and the print on some of the sections is so small I need a wall size plasma to read the damn thing. But the correspondents are getting much nicer indeed.
yeh, I agree, they have a new studio and re-worked everything, and I don’t like it at all.
They have Margaret Brennan always “above” everyone else on an elevated platform so she looks down on all her guests, either thru ego or some dumbass in production thought it cute to have her 2 feet above everyone else so she looks down on them and they have to look up…. I don’t like it and the new studio is too bling-ie and cold looking.
and the ticker was great, now it really sucks, I’ve already fired off a letter to them about these changes.
Aw Christ, now I’m bothered by Brennan being higher than everybody else too. Good on ya for having the juice to send them a missive, I tend to just throw things at the set…
Really Sucks!
HATE the new ticker. Why?
Tim:
The only person that can help you is the guy on the other end of the suicide call you make regularly. Listen to him please.
J, they are talking about LED street lights on Bloomberg right now..
Okay thanks, A
Pimm Fox is doing a thing on it later I suppose, he just did an intro to it.
The Fly is currently Bill and Ted-ing the market right now and with be arriving shortly in a phone booth nearest your local 40 oz bottle shop.