Great day for Pat Boone and friends… Pat looking on warmly with that glint in his eye, as opposed to the gleam he reserves for bad days, when his guitar strings break and he ends up beating Debbie and the wife.
Smaug’s Lair of The Hobbit’s late-chapter fame is a good metaphor for this market, if you are like myself and need metaphors to get you through the day like a nice semolina bread and head cheese sandwich at lunch. The old treasure dragon from the Tolkien classic signifies the danger implicit in this precious metal bull, and yes, maybe the greed, too.
So let’s try to remain cautious and harvest prudently when the corn grows high, whether by selling calls or taking our positions back a bit. No need to be piggish and end up as dragon droppings amidst the mithril.
Only one chart tonight, and maybe tomorrow I’ll give you some new picks to augment my Jacksonian rockets (The Jackson Port ended today at 38% despite loss positions in both Monsanto Company [[MON]] and our ultra-hedge [[TBT]] ).
Tonight is a silver night, however, as my seven silver horses [[AGQ]] , [[CDE]] , [[EXK, Hecla Mining Company [[HL]] , [[PAAS]] , Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]] and Silver Standard Resources Inc. (USA) [[SSRI]] were up a combined average of 9.19% today.
These miners will continue to perform as silver tries to catch up with already “BTFO” gold, which broke to new highs today. As you can see with [[SLV]] , there’s still a lot of room for silver to grow up in this cycle:
More later tomorrow after yet another morning meeting. Remember — be cautious with the sleeping dragon, lest he make a tasty canape out of your chitinous carapace.
Ciao.
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Jake,
I guess I don’t understand price volume charts. Do you know a web site that provides an explanation. I kind of get price and volume under it, but the bar graphs on the side is beyond me.
BTW, I cut my PMPIX back from 25% to 10%, after making a whopping 8.95% today.
Life is good!
As always, much thanks for your support.
H5-O-
Price and volume bars are pretty simple but you can probably find a formal definition at Stockcharts’ “chart school”.
Basically they define areas of support and resistance by identifying where there has been significant buying (black) and selling (red) in a stock. Often price will stall in these areas , so a break through or break down in a “long bar area” would be considered significant.
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Addendum — fixed link.
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Jake,
#1 way to play silver and/or gold, long term, with retirement money?
Thanks.
Personally? I’d take at least 30% of my current pile and allocate it thusly —
25% Physical bullion (in safe deposit box or home safe)
25% GLD and SLV (bullion equivalents)
25% Large Miners (including GDX as a proxy)
25% Junior burritos (for the bang in your buck)
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“Junior Burritos” ??
Sorry, that’s Fly terminology.
“Burritos” generally designates smaller cap, fast moving, volatile stocks, as first described by Fly in reference to the wild wild West of Chinese stocks, or “Chinese burritos.”
“Burrito” has since been used in reference to biotech stocks, also known as “pinless grenades.”
I am referring specifically to the junior miners which were all under $5 back in November, although many have graduated… including NG, NXG, NGD, BAA, IVN, CDE (10 for 1 reverse split, now over $20), HL, EXK, GSS, RBY, XRA etc, etc…
I own all of the above save IVN, btw.
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never mind
Never mind what?
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I started to explain burritos to the young man, but you finished before me. Therefore, I redacted my comment in an E. Littella manner.
If I have a chitinous carapace would that make me a beetle? LOL.
Like your blog Jake and your colorful commentary.
Yes, a “gold bug” for sure.
Thanks for stopping by.
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The Hobbit, directed by no less than Peter Jackson, is set to release sometime at the beginning of the next decade, or so I’m told.
Did they finally nail Jackson down for that? I’d heard he was waffling….
I sure hope they can get Ian McKellen again for Gandalf, or it’ll suck.
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My cousin in law is a Tolkien fanatic (more than just the stories), and he tells me that, shortly after the waffling fiasco, Jackson set himself to the task. In fact, I’m fairly certain shooting of the film has already begun, since he was thinking of flying out to New Zealand for a year to try and be in the movie (thankfully, money, family, and common sense put a stop to that).
The lake men apparently made shirts that said “Laketown Fire Department,” which they distributed.
You’ve a discrepency (see below).
My boys would love those tee-shirts. Any left?
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I have no idea. I’ll ask him though.
Guillermo del Toro (HELLBOY, and a great visual stylist (viz PAN’S LABYRINTH) will be directing THE HOBBIT.
Once again, I will be playing the part of a beaver.
Pan’s Labyrinth is one of the greatest movies of the decade…if you haven’t seen it, you’re doing yourself a great disservice.
Here’s hoping that del Toro will lend ‘The Hobbit’ a similar dark/fantastic style.
I’ve seen Pan’s Labryinth. Don’t know if it’s “the best movie of the decade” but it was pretty good. Too ghastly for the wife, unfortunately.
I dig Del Toro’s funky “monster sense” — he has a distinct visiual style like Tim Burton does.
Didn’t he also do “Chronos?”
So is it Jackson producing with Del Toro directing, then? Or is Jackson not involved at all? I know Jackson got another kid to helm his “District 9” to good results, from what I hear (have not yet seen it).
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“one of the greatest of the decade”. Not the best. Just one of them.
See also, in no particular order and probably not complete: City of God, Memento, The Departed, Snatch, No Country for Old Men, Donnie Darko, Eternal Sunshine…, The Incredibles, LotR, Gladiator, Dark Knight,
Yes, Jackson is the producer, although, unlike Blomkamp, del Toro is already established (as you know). But he probably would not have been picked as the director without Jackson’s name, whose touch has been golden since LotR (except for maybe King Kong).
District 9 is excellent, btw.
oh, and also: Black Hawk Down, Almost Famous, O Brother Where Art Thou?, Requiem for a Dream
Well I’m disappointed; I like what Jackson did with the Lord of the Rings. Still, he’s involved in the screenplay, according to one of the fan sites I just peaked at.
Jake-
Which of the major miners are you in?
Well I’m in all the Jacksons, of course, but depending on what you mean by “major” I’m also in GG and AUY.
No ABX or AEM, or any of the old “Hedgers.”
I think EGO, ANV, IAG, GFI will all be the size of the bigs soon.
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Jake,
IAG recently bought 17% of Oromin Exploration (OLEPF.ob OLE.to). Oromin released spectacular results from Senegal last night. They already have 3 million AU ounces and the high-grade potential now is immense. Check them out, I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised.
It’s a little ironic that, only a few years after the Lord of the Rings, they’re trying to make the Hobbit, since they blew up the Hobbiton set after production. Oops…
I’m sure del Toro would want to design his own Hobbiton.
Prolly have Hobbit hookers in a Hobbiton red light district, but…
Looking forward to his “Trolls.”
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Here’s hoping that somehow this guy makes an appearance:
http://www.channel4.com/film/media/images/Channel4/film/P/pans_labyrinth_xl_01–film-A.jpg
Hedge fund manager John Paulson (speaking at the recent Grant’s Interest Rate Observer conference in New York) succinctly summed up his views about how to protect himself:
“What I’m looking at is not where gold is going to be tomorrow, one week from now, one month from now, three months from now. What I’m looking at is where is gold going to be vis-a-vis the dollar one year from now, three years from now, five years from now. And I think, with a high probability at each of those points, gold will be higher than it is relative to the dollar today. That probability increases the further out you go. So when I look at what the risk is, the risk to me is far more staying in dollars than it is in gold at this point.”
Did I mention I own AA too?
When it rains….
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Silver up another fitty cent. Gold up another ten.
It was a good day….
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Watch XOM for the break of the long term triangle here… If it breaks up (or down) it takes the SPX w. it.
Triangle point is November 24th, but I’m not sure it gets that far.
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Completed Review of CVM and HEB.
Please note I’m definitely not TA rated and there’s an obligatory oxymoron warning…this review is from the perspective of a doc investor.
CVM
Leadership – Maxmilan de Clara, whoever that is. Dr. Daniel Zimmerman lead scientist is for real, but…well old if that matters to you. He’s been working this stuff since I spit the binky.
Drug – Multikine, forget this L.E.A.P. thing, way too far away from anything there.
Target market – solid tumors; head and neck but others. First line therapy prior to other treatments
Market potential – extremely high if it really works
Status – passed phase ll building up for phase lll. Short of money and partners. 33% improvement in 3 year survival in a small study (19 patients)
Gut check opinion; these guys have struggled mightily for a long time. Money always a problem, otherwise phase lll should have started years ago. Building a facility that can service other companies needing to make biologics. Reason is to contribute revenue for getting the phase lll study going. A build it and they will come strategy? Doesn’t reassure me.
Bottom line opinion; it’s a pure speculative roll of the dice, maybe buy a bit and put in the closet for a while. Leadership bugs me, small study size in phase ll bugs me, building a place to sell services to other biotech’s bugs me. Nothing conclusive can happen for years until that study is rolling. Maybe day trade it on technicals, but any news is likely to be internal company fluff for a long time to come.
HEB
Leadership – cool by me
Drug – Alferon (natural interferon). Drug has been around for ages (I used it back in the late 80’s early 90’s) limited applications and [designated] market size. Sales of .09 million for a 20 year old drug don’t impress much. Chances the drug gets some new mojo is pretty slim, so only the pipeline matters.
So the story is their drug Ampligen – been around but not approved for anything since I was a wee lad, and they hope works on everything. The only real data comes from some almost 10 year old stuff they did on Chronic Fatigue syndrome. Nothing to see here from what I saw in the study.
Target market – every viral problem you can shake a stick at.
Market potential – I’d rather not answer that.
Status – Ampligen passed phase lll several years ago – no final approval nor marketing yet.
Gut check opinion; pig with lipstick
Bottom line opinion; pass
Sounds like you are telling me to kick those old Henry picks to the kerb and stick with the shiny metals…
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Somebody asked me about ILI. It’s all about genetic tests to determine if you’re at risk for certain problems, and what diet will work best for fatties. Love that. Check out the website (it’s a quick read) http://www.ilgenetics.com/
They got product, sales and fat customers. I love that whole thing going on. Can you see where a Helicos genetic analyser works in this picture? Who might want to know information about their genetic risks for all kinds of stuff? Oh, maybe everyone. That’s a big market.
Worthy of a my 2% position (currently water breathing about 10%), I’m in no hurry on that one.
Thanks Doc. I had asked about ILI. Sorry about that water breathing problem. Looks like I’ll pair an HLCS and ILI trade. Err make that position.
Gold @ $1051… silver at $17.82
Can I get a whoo-hoo?
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WHOO-MOTHER LOVING-HOO! A double helping too!
Okay Jake, I am totally on your side now:
I don’t want to pay taxes anymore…
LOL. Good for you.
It’s more than about just paying taxes (or not) however. It’s about the role of gov’t.
New post btw —————–>>>>>
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Uh, yah, thanks for pointing that out Jake. Actually I was only sort of kidding around; euphoric and all that. C’mon, let’s not get started arguing about how socially averted you are, and how politically astute I am , spoiling this glorious moment.
If that means you are still a commie, you’re not exactly knocking me over with a feathah, ovah heah.
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My take on these two veterans is blockbuster news isn’t likely anytime soon, if at all. Maybe CVM has something going on what with those wacky germans and all the crazy stuff they do (you know, Raelians, weinerschnitzel, and other kinky things), but what a slog proving it.
Still might be crazy trades the way small cap biotechs bounce around, I don’t quibble with the fool.
Of course HEB and CVM are up big premarket (along with my favs).
Good time to boost them, I guess.