Recent surveys indicate refrigerator sales are through the roof in China. If you choose to fuck around with ice boxes, you may want to look at WHR or TECUA.
Everyone is LCD nuts, especially those silly fuckers in China. Because of them, I like AUO, LPL, GLW and maybe a little HIMX.
Smart phones are selling like whores in the South Bronx. Into the fervor, I want to own STAR, CY, ATML and maybe a little ALU.
Small network players, like TNDM and FNSR, offer upside, while big ones—CIEN and CSCO— are must owns.
As oil and natty march higher, once thought to be dead, in vacant lots somewhere in DC, oil service stocks will be revived—like the Phoenix—forcing those who are short to swallow molten steel. Within the space, I like OIS, FTK, WFT, CGV and DWSN, amongst others.
Let’s not forget, hurricane season is about to begin. Senor Tropicana will be here, wishcasting, with lots of “fuck those rigs, let them burn” plays.
See pal, I know my shit, unlike you, fumbling through your IBD, thumbing through asshole charts, as if they mean anything. Most importantly, I will know when to step to the sidelines, in order to forgo dickfaced price declines.
In short, I cannot lose.
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Fly, you need to relax. We are not in a new bull market and the global economy is not recovering. I am very surprised to know that you are so stupid to believe otherwise.
I love this blog, keep it up Fly.
Fly,
what is so special about FTK?
“what is so special about FTK?”
The Fly probably has about 30% float of the stock…thats why
I’m going long OYOG 2morrow.
Devildog is now driving a Yugo after losing his Viper to a margin call.
Dogs new rule… Ignore the rally, just focus on the economy.
If you do merchandise, you have to have a T-shirt showdown: DD vs. Fly.
And did anyone notice DRYS down 5%?
Versus 10% on LVS?
Think about it…
Lets not forget the “liar loans” or otherwise called “stated income mortgages” that were handed out like candy 2005-2007 numbering in the millions that have yet to reset. Foreclosures have not gotten to these, last of the insanely stupid offerings by the banks.
100% mortage, no money down, banks also gave a 2nd loan as well to the people to pay closing costs, home buyer ended up with 2 loans, lied about their income, most lied (by IRS tax records later found) by as mush as +50% above their real income, allowing for a loan given to them for twice what they could afford at the height of the bubble even down.
Don’t forget these when jumping for joy that the worst is behind us and all going forward is rainbows and butterflies.
These are the banks worst nightmare. These are the loans that the bank loaned out $750,000.00 for a house sold in 2007 that was bought in 2001 for 195,000.00. The seller is fat and happy with the check in his account for 750,000.00, the buyer is now walking away this week, the house now is back to a value of 225,000.00 (and dropping) and the bank is going to find out they are going to own this house come tomorrow with a 525,000.00 loss going forward. times this by about 2 million more of these over the next 12 months.
I’m just saying…..
You didn’t happen to snag that TECUA idea off of my Investment Spotter WL, did ya? 😉
I know you didn’t, I’m just kidding. I’ll have an analysis of it up in the PG in the next hour or so, if everyone is interested.
Congrats on the big gains today Fly.
A very nice post, Fly.
Yes, Congratulations on the big gains.
Really appreciate your postings.
Oh yes, it so hard to pick a winner nowadays. Even the crappiest stocks are roaring. Who needs the PPT? A dart board full of post-it-notes with your favorite hot stocks is all that is required.
Fly check your email for PPT ad.
I agree this post is titties.
Great Post Fly as usual and what great calls!!! Your sense of the market is very helpful to some of us newbies. Right now I’m waiting for a pull back because I missed the last two days. Your overall sense of what the market is doing has been very helpful to me.
Harbinger of the future:
A relative of mine who owns a small business is going belly up. She’ll file for bankruptcy at some point this year. She is part of a small business owners association in the North East that has about 5000 members. She estimates that a third to half of them are in the same boat. She’ll be defaulting on about 50k worth of BAC and Capital 1 credit card debt…. It’s coming people..
I’ll be the first to propound the awesomeness of this here rally. May it go on for weeks and months more! I know it will (fly told me so), but when it ends later this year, be ready. There’s a whole lot of bad news out there yet…
trade sharply people
sorry for your relative’s situation. i hate seeing small businesses go under.
You will know when it turns to shit. Why is anyone loosing out and heading for the cave in the middle of this kick ass heat wave. Money is going somewhere… equities.
Yes we are fucked, so bank coin while you can!!
Loosing your business sucks…Sad times, been there.
Anyone who spells “losing” “loosing” is subject to an instant ban. IT guy, get on it.
Sorry, I’m educated. Honest. You didn’t call me a dick face this time. You must have had enough of me.
This rally is being “propagated” so banks can raise money via secondaries or to sell inflated assets to cash out the TARP loans. It is all balance-sheet voodoo.
When the big boys are finished there will be an immediate “crisis” which will take S&P below the magic 666.
No one is earning any real profits, except for The Fly.
How is that, Zen? Since you see it all, aren’t you making a profit?
Another stock that does well with hurricanes and spills ..(look @ a 20yr chart) it has explosive upside. OMNI..and its cheap and moving up….D.Dog you’re read is correct but timing a bit premature..I labored with mindset and it cost me major gelt..I had to buy a white board 30×60″ and right play what you see, not think STUPID..and place it above screens..it still took weeks to finally roll with it. Good luck all
Maelstrom, what does “gelt” mean?
Anonymous:
Zen is not the practice of “seeing”. It is the practice of accepting what is and going with the flow.
It’s what The Fly does, but his fly eyes see 1,000’s of paths, while mere mortals only can see one, if they are lucky.
Gelt = cash money (deutsch)
“Gelt” is just Yiddish for gold, but in its idiomatic usage it generally means money, dough, semolians, balloons, cash, grease, cake, etc.
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the commercial real estate shoe might not drop as hard as feared, many of the big projects coming up for refi are getting extensions. They even coined a term for it—pretend and extend—-they are pretending things will get better and giving extensions instead of the big foreclosures. If we get a dose of inflation and credit improves, the values will go up, and over time the properties could then be rolled over to refinancing. This is the reason the market is yet to be flooded with commercial foreclosures…they are bigger owners and better able to work with the banks as compared to residential borrowers. Also, the special servicers who are the decision makers in whether to sell often own the B piece of debt and don’t want to sell to take the loss. They bought the B piece during the boom in order to get the servicing fees. It was suppossed to be a low risk venture, no one thought about the conflict pitfalls in a down cycle. The A piece guys are all over them trying to force a sale since the A is still whole, but the servicers are choosing to extend instead of foreclose because their piece would get crushed in a down market, the servicers are refusing and extending instead of selling on the market. It is flat out Tranch warfare between the different A and B piece holders and there is some litigation taking place. The special servicers have a conflict of interest, but it is preventing the commercial foreclosures from taking place as much as everyone expected.
Not being negative, but I just had a meeting on Sunday with the owner of the 2nd largest lumber company on the east coast (a friend of mine as well as client) told me they just idled their truss plant.
This is what I’ve been talking about for months. I live in reality and go with what I actually see, not hear on TV. The home building sector is at a stand still, good or bad, that’s the way it is right now.
I have friends all over that are big time developers (I’m an artist/architectural designer, among other things and do design work for them) and they are mostly idle right now with halfway finished properties that sales have come to a halt.
I have a marina that I designed for Lake Tillery, NC that is being built right now but that is a little different than homes and the overall outlook I see. (people have to play and fish and get ice cream somewhere you know)
So, when a large truss plant goes completely idle, that is not a good sign. (for those who do not know what a truss plant is, trusses are the engineered, pre built roof sections that go on houses, pre built at the plant and delivered to the job site and lifted into place with a crane).
also on aside, I just drove 550 miles, from NC to Florida on May 23, and back from Florida to NC on May 30, another 550 miles. I saw very few tractor trailers on the road, in fact at the large welcome center truck/rest stop at the Georgia border there was only 2 tractor trailer trucks in the rest stop. Usually when I stop there, there are 20-30 trucks in this rest stop. This was the case going and coming. And for the entire 1100 miles, very very few on the road.
just giving a road report here on reality in the transport area.
carry on.
Henry, you looking at AGEN or KERX?
small cancer bio seems to be on the up this spring….
Couple of thoughts before the open. I am traveling this week and on the Left Coast (Silicon Valley) so my posts will be thin. Congrats to all longs yesterday, I coined so much money in Oil with a 90+% profit on my biggest position DXO. I did take a little off yesterday at 4.50 (My cost is $2.39) while letting my UNG and short UGA run. With regards to the markets the bulls have horned the bears so bad that I think even hard core bears will be turning bulls soon. I am trading light and lighter as the days go on with the bulk of my positions in commodity names. GME is a space alien ship, thanks Fly!
Now one thing that I want to mention, I don’t know if any of you are from California but this place is turning into a ghost town. Seriously the CRE space here is fucked. You just drive down the 101 and you see empty warehouse after empty warehouse where large companies used to reside. I guess this market is immune to this but someone has to have been getting hit even though their stock prices don’t reflect it. CBRE seems to own a large majority of the names, or at least their name is all over the place. But like I said, I think everyone is immune to this myth of CRE but wanted to share what I see. I will try to check back in later, good luck out there today.
Gap,
CBRE is the third party leasing agent and property manager for those properties. It’s possible that a CBRE Investors Fund would own a couple, but they wouldn’t have their signs up with phone numbers on them. The signs you see are most likely advertising available space on behalf of a different owner.
Fly has asked me to do an update on CRE but i just haven’t had the time. it’s busy as hell in my arena right now (I place commercial real estate financings, so everyone and their brother needs help right now).
Tampa Trader above makes a very solid point about the extension of loans. the foreclosure train is not going to go full stride on commercial real estate mortgages, except for in failed condo projects and in deals where there are weak borrowers. any strong CRE company can work with a lender to extend, or refinance if there is substantial cash flow present at their properties. i have done many low leverage refinances this year, taking a loan off the books of an out of business lender and putting it with an in business lender (i.e. taking an AIG loan and placing it with a local bank).
CRE lags the economy, so there are fundamental worries in the future for us. companies downsizing, giving back space, and the rental rate declines aren’t really going to be fully realized for a few years now.
however, any property trades or financing that are getting done right now are pricing a lot of that in. lenders are taking 20% discounts to today’s net operating incomes, projecting rent declines, and then sizing their loan amounts off of those stressed levels. risky deals are either not happening or are getting done with full personal recourse to the borrower so that the lender isn’t stuck with the toxic property should the deal fail.
this TALF program and the PPIP are slowing down the recovery process for the meantime, as most all big players are waiting to see what those programs bring them. transaction volume is way down right now, but things will have to move eventually. there used to be a motto back in the early nineties called “stay alive til ’95”. now people are starting to say “keep it lean until ’13”.
i, personally, would not be short CRE for the long term. the credit crisis in the sector is only going to loosen up from here, considering transactions are at an all time low and the gov’ment is doing everything they can to open up liquidity. the fundamental declines are already priced in.
just my opinion. i’ll try to answer some other questions if i can…
Fellas…
correct me here, but weren’t these guys saying they didn’t need any or anymore capital only a few weeks ago.
Morgan Stanley, jpmorgan, American Express Selling Common Stock
Fuck they’re lying, good for nothing sacks of shit, these CEOS and senior execs. Every single one of them is a lying piece if shit. In fact they make Bernie Madoff positively honest looking.
In a fair world they should be fired for lying to the market as nothing has changed only a few weeks ago.
J – These guys are selling common stock because things are getting worse and they are preparing. A few weeks back they may have been honest about not needing more capital. Now they are seeing things are getting worse.
Credit card defaults are rising and the pace is not slowing down.
Foreclosures are on the rise. In fact if one takes into consideration that banks put a moratorium on foreclosures for 3 months starting late last year, it makes sense why we had this rally. Less foreclosures made banks balance sheets look better. Now foreclosures are occurring faster than ever. The Pay Option ARM explosion is just getting started.
The fact banks that previously said they didn’t need capital and are now raising capital is cause for concern.
Cap:
JP and MS are real shockers to me. Perhaps you’re right.
I am Peanut King! http://tinyurl.com/nbagb5
DD said last week, and I quote him verbatim,
“S&P 804 by 6/2. We will then get another manufactured bullshit bounce to around 874 ending on 6/10”
With that, I suggest he be stripped of tab, banned and awarded the June Asshat of the month award for being more than 100 points off in his prediction. I hope no-one follows his bile.
They are all liars.
Just follow the money.
FTK blows goats! Keep on trying to pump it up Fly!
I’m movin on up to deluxe PPT seat. So look to follow my shite over there if you dare.
Today’s my sons 11th B-day so I’ll be busy getting things ready and not too active.
I’ll leave you with much of my same an a little new.
DVAX i think is gonna RIP but it’s a penny so be careful
im still long IMGN MDVN FSYS GAIA RFMD XOMA EXEL CROX GU ENTR however took some off yesterday here and there. Like Senor Tropicana says “Don’t forget to trade out.”
I’m adding HOKU right here 3.05 and will add on shake off 3 or breakout whichever comes first
That is correct – follow the money – follow the tape – follow the Fly, but do not follow that doggy fellow with the “proprietary” BS.
Drudge Headlines about Obama and Iranian nukes and calling Clinton a liar.
Pretty much guarantees an Israeli strike in Iran and a wake up call for moderate and blue dog Dems (one would think).
http://www.drudgereport.com/
Hey Fool
So we lose your insights here in the cheap seats? That sucks.
I am No Blogger my friend just moving to PPT to have all the bells and whistles. I’ll log all my trades there, so if you want to follow me come on ova!
Not at all cebu sun FREE ADVICE makes this sight what it is.
I like the tabbed bloggers will do my best to share stuff here too, just trying to add value to an already valuable resource called the PPT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Like this Free Gem:
IMGN doesn’t seem afraid to make it’s way to 52wk high list everyday. Like here @ 8.25 it looks great!
Will EXEL shake out all the CNBC viewers and close the week over $6… I think so.
Fool just said ova.
Is Fool really Jake?
The people want to know.
Fool:
Where are you posting over there as I don’t see your paw print?
TradderCaddy,
One way to tell:
Hey Henry Fool I have a question for you – what do you think of Canada?
SO SNEAKY!
Well, if they are one in the same, they follow very dif’t shit and do well with both.
TC says
Drudge Headlines about Obama and Iranian nukes and calling Clinton a liar.
Pretty much guarantees an Israeli strike in Iran and a wake up call for moderate and blue dog Dems (one would think).
I don’t read it like that at all. In fact the O’man is giving them an escape shoot. He can’t very well deny them nuke for peaceful reasons, so he’s taking them at their word and then applying limitations in terms of the non proliferation treaty to receive inspections.
This isn’t a bad out come at all.
He’s smoking them out.
Didn’t build my portfolio on PPT too busy. I have one eye on trades other eye is multitasking odd jobs. I’ll get to it soon enough. I can’t wait
The Fool just be the Fool. Born, raised, and living in NJ! thus the ova. or is it ovah?
No bullshit Turnpike exit jokes I live in the farmland’s less than 1 hour from NYC.
It rocks here! We have it all.
Henry…what egzic in NJ?
Not to be a FAZtard, but I think your buy the dips strategy may go through a bit of a drawdown over the next week or too. Beautiful blow-off on high volume on the NQ right into multi-year resistance… same with ES. This bitch is gonna drop.
“No bullshit Turnpike exit jokes I live in the farmland’s less than 1 hour from NYC.
It rocks here! We have it all”
..and by all, you mean $20k annual property taxes?
anyone have a Russian EFT to look at?
Hey Henry Fool I have a question for you – what do you think of Canada?
My next blogpost will put to rest the myth that I am anti- Canadian.
I am only anti-“statist.” The nationality — or “internationality” as they might say — is not important.
_____________
IMGN, for the love of all that is Henry!
_______________
PCU- enjoying a nice gain and I like the massive insider buying- demand for copper in use of batteries is something I never thought about when I bought the stock. It’s not just about the use in construction.
I’m bidding for lots of 15,000 of DVAX @ 1.51
The bottom line is I tend not to think of Canada unless its running away or smoking hash. Although I have relatives on the saint Laurent somewhere.
Henry,
Why do you like so much of DVAX at this moment? Thanks.