You thought you were all smart and shit. I know your type. You had your little charts stacked high on your bullshit desk. You just knew the government bailouts were working. After all, they could print money forever and ever and ever. You thought “hey, this Fly dude isn’t all that bad. He is wrong. I’ll show him.”
Wrong again.
“The Fly” is one bad motherfucker and you, sir, are an ordinary fucktard, easily distracted and easily killed.
I warned you of the January boot stomp. You chose not to get involved. You and your fucking charts, your mindless, dick sucking charts, are now enjoying the sharper end of my blade. For what?
Your bullshit accounts are on their way to zero—all because your had to bet against Senor Tropicana aka HORATIO CLAWHAMMER.
When will you humans learn (“The Fly” is a space alien magician)?
Regarding the important matter of investing:
I covered the rest of my KIM short, south of $15.75. I covered half of my XOM short, south of $75.5 and I increased my short position in HANS, just south of $31. I did not touch my VNO short position. As a matter of fact, I didn’t even look at it. It’s too beautiful.
As you know, I have big dicked exposure to inverse etf’s. I will not sell any of them today—due to my belief that the market is set to retest the lows. However, into the coming dive, I will sell them all and never buy, nor look, at them again—as promised.
Going into the close, I expect the market to get nailed to the fucking ground, effectively making clowns like Cramer and Kass look like dancing gorillas near a banana tree.
One pair trade worth considering is long oil, short oil stocks. You can do that via long UCO, long DUG. It’s possible that oil can bounce off of these levels. However, there is no fucking way oil stocks maintain these lofty levels for too much longer.
NOTE: I covered half of my XOM position because of my huge exposure to ERY and DUG, which already gets me short XOM. I’m just trying to eliminate overlapping investments, in order to build cash.
Top picks: SMN, DUG, FAZ and SRS.
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Don’t worry, Vince Farrell says its all priced in
CNBC wins ASSHAT of the year award…..
The biggest Joke is CNBC with their OJ like coverage of Madoff. Market is getting its teeth kicked in and all they talk about is Madoff. What a fucking joke CNBC and all of NBC is for a network. Probably one of the reasons why GE is getting fucking creamed
Crude to $3 by february.
GS hits its lows for the day, much to my liking. Fuck the partnership and the so called smartest guys on the street. I am not covering anytime soon
The joke is the market isn’t that hard right now if you have your wheels turning right (unfortunately, mine aren’t). Could have bought Nortel at the opening and sold it a few minutes later for a 50% gain. Hoohah!
anyone buying SLW on the pullback or are precious metals going to die too in a deflationary spiral?
I turned CNBC OFF after the first hour of the blurry car footage. THE CAR that would take Madoff to his grim fate…blah blah blah. Wait is that him?!!!
Fuck CNBC in a very egregious way.
Ok, The Fly, Devildog and CAP walk into a bar. The bartender turns to Fly and Fly says “Monster Energy drink with a bag of Earl Grey tea in it,” Devildog says “warm blood from the throat of a cow, straight up,” CAP says “no thanks, I’ll suck my own cock.”
Adam Michael
12:50:00 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Energy Update
The COT reports are negative (Commercials net short). Inventory numbers are bearish, and reports from my traders in Houston say “there’s crude everywhere”.
I’d also note that winter is when demand peaks so don’t expect things to get better as we get closer to spring. Short-term, I expect to see a little bounce as some of the key currencies I watch are close to support (EURJPY especially), but I’m not going to try and play it. Bounces in energy/energy stocks are opportunities to sell ‘em in my opinion.
Crude is headed to $25 by spring is my best guess.
Question…am I the only one who thinks this guy Jeff Cooper is a complete nutcake? For years I’ve watched him 375 right angle of the cross triangle tangent this and 426 circle jerk trapezoid formation on the square root of the triple bottom pentagram that, yet nothing he says marketwise holds up with reality. I don’t think I’ve EVER seen him make any kind of call where I felt, “Wow, I should’ve listened to him”.
It’s funny, you guys talk about hating CNBC but watch it everyday. If you have to trade with a TV on just watch good movies all day and keep Drudge report up on your screen, that’s it.
PPT transition team not buying the calls like Henry demanded. To worried about Nanny Taxes. Whoosh!!!!
Speaking of PPT…. Fly send me a beta of that shit…and 1 hour of Tech support….hopefully not @ 3am!!!!
DD in a frenzy, bears all loaded long hubris, opex fri. Reversal coming folks.
Jester earns egregious loads of karma with that one
… if I still existed.
DD is not in a frenzy you oaf….he’s been short for 8 days, he’s already looking at 25% profit gains and if there is a reversal it will be for 5% and soon REVERSE back down…….go eat a burger U…..
hahahaha @ jester
As an upstanding righteously indignant american, yes, the joke is on me.
We need an OJ-style low-speed pursuit of Madoff.
Helicopters overhead. A herd of police cruisers hanging back, but following. Black SUVs paralleling the chase, one block to each side, with a team of laptop-wielding forensic accountants inside each one. Madoff’s vehicle upfront. A grim-faced driver grips the wheel, ignoring the curses from passing taxis as he keeps half his attention on the road and half on the copters. In the back of the limo, Madoff is sipping from a wine glass as he stuffs jewelry and documents into DHL boxes.
Today is definitely a day to turn over to Bloomberg. CNBC at lunchtime is like watching The View. Nothing redeeming about it. No information. Just bullshit.
I personally cannot wait for Dennis Kneale to be see scrounging thru garbage cans on 12th street for a crumb of bread after he and all those pompous ass opulent living overpaid assturds from CNBC all loose there jobs during the upcoming depression…..once GE sells CNBC to Al Jazeera (the only buyer at the time) who then circular files all their contracts and all are out on the street……. then, just then, maybe they will see real world reality….?????
I’m short right now and I have the charts to thank for it. Watchu talkin bout, FLY???
Good thang we stayed short!
USO — burbling?
_________
Have you seen this from the Telegraph?:
Freight rates for containers shipped from Asia to Europe have fallen to zero for the first time since records began, underscoring the dramatic collapse in trade since the world economy buckled in October.
A report by ING yesterday said shipping activity at US ports has suddenly dived. Outbound traffic from Long Beach and Los Angeles, America’s two top ports, has fallen by 18pc year-on-year, a far more serious decline than anything seen in recent recessions.
“This is no regular cycle slowdown, but a complete collapse in foreign demand,” said Lindsay Coburn, ING’s trade consultant….
Flaps has June death puts on DRYS “in size” plus, against all good advice, is holding EEV and FXP, plus SRS from 51.5, plus short MAC, CBL and PLD.
Looking like Flaps’ net worth is up 15% YTD, so is adding The Fly and the DD to his list of righteous Americans.
ps
The Fuckery show is cancelled today due to a death in the band.
Bot, 5k more DXO @ 2.86
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Could I request a PPT reading on DD (Dupont, not devildog), it looks like it might be heading for another leg down soon (mini double top on the dreaded charts, at least my crayon marks make it look that way).
Thank you, kind Sir Horatio Clawhammer.
Jake:
UCO trades better than DXO.
PPT on DD:
Technical Breakdown
Accumulation/Dist. [?] 1
Price Performance [?] 1
Relative Strength [?] 1
Volatility [?] 3
Volume [?] 2
Overall Technical Score [?] 1.22
PPT Recommendation: Strong Sell
Fundamental Breakdown
Debt/Equity [?] 4
PEG Ratio [?] 5
Price/Book [?] 5
Price/Sales [?] 5
Profit Margin [?] 3
Overall Fund. Score [?] 4.70
PPT Recommendation: Strong Buy
Hybrid Score
Hybrid Score [?] 2.68
Historical Scores
How has DD scored in the past? Click here to find out.
PPT Recommendation: Sell
Jake is burbling a technical term, as in burbling down the funnel, or burbling up from the ground?
thank you Fly, much appreciated.
Boca — I’d wait for a break of $24. Filled a minor gap here, but if it breaks $24 you’re good to at least 21.35 and maybe more… a lot more.
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the fly i must give you credit, i’m a new trader and this market is a tough read for me, between you and gio and cajun i’ve learned a lot…kudos
Listen up. Crude is preparing to rip your face off. Who shorts the bottom?
Yeah, mebbe the joke’s on me, but somehow I ain’t laughing.
Boca —
“Burbling” is a reference to Jed Clampett’s “burbling crude.”
As in — “Ellie Mae, I shot me a gusher!”
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Oh shut up with all the bottom talk?
WHO THE FUCK SAID THIS IS THE BOTTOM?
Asshole.
I am not short oil. I am short oil stocks. There businesses are irreversibly impaired.
Fly —
Re: UCO v. DXO — in what sense?
DXO volume seems pretty good, very liquid, etc.
You mean because of the relative share prices?
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Nooen said anythign about a bottom, I just said we would bounce. Watch and learn.
Someone want to record Meredith Whitney’s interview on CNBC at 3pm, then post it on youtube?
Volunteers?
SLV kisses the 50 and comes back to life. Party on…
Watch and learn?
I don’t watch or learn from the likes of you.
Fuck off.
Market is almost there…maybe 1 day or 2…maybe this afternoon…volume more than 10 to 1 ratio to the downside….market sniper rifle locked and loaded..waiting for the killing shot
Barclays previews large/mid-cap bank earnings
Barclays previews earnings for the large/mid-cap banks, noting they have seen consensus expectations trend lower over the past four weeks. Nevertheless, they continue to expect the majority of names under coverage to miss consensus expectations. In 4Q08, they expect their coverage to post a loss of $3 bln, led by C, compared to modest profitability in 3Q08. The firm expects about $23 bln in NCOs (vs. $17 bln in 3Q), as well as $18 bln in loan loss reserve building amid a decline in risk-ratings. They see the average bank’s NCO ratio increasing to the 1.70% area, versus 1.43% in the prior quarter. For 4Q08, they appear most below consensus on C, JPM, BAC, as well as CMA, PNC, STI, and FITB. C, JPM, BAC, as well as FHN, SNV, FITB, KEY, MI, and RF could also post losses or break-even quarters, in 4Q08. As for 2009, they believe SNV, C, FHN, MI, KEY, and FITB are most at risk of not being profitable. While they expect the outlook for asset quality and capital to garner the lion’s share of investor attention on the earnings conference calls, they are also interested in the anticipated impacts of the recent jump refi applications (positive) and the possible passage of cram-down legislation (negative).
Thanks Jake 🙂 I know there’s more pain left somewhere in that stock.
BEHOLD – The Messiah Rally ! In Barrack We Trust.
yay, KOL sold at day trade target $14, I musta made like fitty cents there. Having a look at CNX long next
Whitney will spook the markets at 3. You’ve been warned.
BOT 1000 more ERX @ 34.12
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Oh boy. Here we go again.
You are one stubborn man, Mr. Gint.
STOP BUYING OIL STOCKS ASSHOLES.
Look, if you insist on playing oil, buy the commodity via UCO, USO or DXO.
The underlying companies are impaired.
Check out the move up in RTN today, guess war is always good business, they got a nice contract yesterday and Israel’s adventures can’t be hurting their business plan.
You just know Meredith is going to be brutal, especially after the HBC news.
I predict the JPM pre-announcement is part if a bigger plan to stuff as much bad news into this week as possible (before the inauguration)
If this turns out to be true…banks will MELT DOWN even further. Beware…
Jake, you’ve become mightily bullish after being a grizzly bear for a long time. I’m having a hard time adjusting to the bullish Jake.
Lots of warnings on this site today. Do this, dont do that….
whitney on at 4 not 3?
I miss the old Jake. This new version is like some sort of mix of Chivas and Kass.
Somebody get that interview recorded, i’m stuck at work, otherwise I would.
FLY-
She speaks at 4pm not 3pm.
Youve been warned.
initiated starter size position in CNX @ $27.50
^^^^^
You may be right.
I may be crazy.
But have you ever stopped to think:
It just may be a lunatic you’re looking for?
_________
The “Same Jake” btw — is amply hedged right now.
That is all.
_______
Meredith is the only person ever shown on CNBC that says it like it is……all the others ever interviewed are trying to sell us there shit……CNBC has turned into a big national TV show to market all their wares to any schmuck dumb enough to buy into them…….Listen to Meredith……otherwise go ahead and slit your wrists (just make sure you do a through job)
yeah I should have figured you would never forget to hedge. But the old Jake used to let loose with some very entertaining bearish rants, can’t help but miss that.
anyway, if you’re crazy, you’re crazy like a fox.
Have to go out at 3:30 pm, drat, gonna miss Meredith and I have no idea how to get video from my DVR to YouTube anyway.
hey look SRS is getting destroyed in late day trading…suprised?
Who was the poster that did the Meredith schtick….that was very funny by the way. I’ll never forget when Maria asked her if LEH could survive? She paused and then laughed out loud. She be the whistle blower…get her on the clean up team!!!!
BUY BUY BUY
AVAV under 35
AFAM under 40
AIPC long w/ stop @ 23
TNA under 27
SWHC load it under 2.50
There she blows.
Yes. Meredith is back, time for me to be an asshole again.
If Meredith “Ursa Major” Whitney had children she would put them to bed with a sleeper hold.
Boca — still very bearish long term. Just think that some of this fckery is going to stick for the short term, that’s all.
_____
FLY: As your long time advisor or, “man behind the curtain” I advise you to grab a 5% long position in AVAV under 35.
Do not mention this on your foolish blog minions.
Yours truly, Henry Fool
…..hey wait this isn’t my email!!!
Fucking dollar is just kicking my ass. I hate it’s fiat bullshittery.
________
hmmmmm– Laughing Out Loud
explain to me fool, why you think SWHC will go up? explain in detail…..this means I need to know just where revenue will come from?
Enough with this market, “enjoy” some cock and ball torture instead.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7oCDbDebDA
Hey FLY, you expect a testing of the bottom before Obama? Any recovery rally (even if brief) just before his inauguration next week? my only reservation is how oversold this market is…
by the way, if CNBC is not letting Meredith go on until after the close….what she has to say undoubtedly has to be liquid shitty…..
There will be no rally.
The world is fucked, the US more so, and Obama will increasingly be revealed to be not much more than a soothing voice in the night.
His team is so far looking more and more like a W set up, and who finds anything bullish in that?
The only way a rally happens is if he aannounces that another trillion will be spent on the hunt for Bin Laden, and Bin Laden specifically.
I have been long DXO and short XOM, just look at how its playing out.
The market blows up today and CNBS thinks that people will stop watching after 4PM?
yea, the bear market rally since November and the PPT “WTF” action at the end of day has made me cautiously skeptical of a mother sigma selloff we saw through Nov 21… but if this is going to continue, I’m all in baby! go SRS/FAZ!!
I am swearing off of Tim Knight’s sight and Xtrends today. The last couple of days their posts have been horribly stupid and wrong.
I have deleted them off my browser.
There isnt any one that is going to get it right every day so you cant depend on that, I guess you have to evaluate how much someone is ‘ winning” in COIN when they are right.
Fly you are shorting oil companies but not oil…Sheesh…I have two stocks (yes I still am holding these) that are oil/gas trust holding companies for Texas/Oak/NM- oil/gas drilled in US in those states. They dont have negative cash flow or lots of debit, they are just a holding company to pay dividends….
Net Profit Margin 99.33% 98.28% 98.49%
Operating Margin 99.33% 98.28% 98.49%
EBITD Margin – – –
Return on Average Assets 576.96% 408.70% 388.35%
Return on Average Equity 1119.92%
Where do these types of stocks fall in your idea of shorting oil companies but not oil and gas? They are SJT and MTR. The idea of shorting oil/gas companies but not shorting oil and gas commodity is rather…schizophrenic in my mind so trying to figure out what the ‘ double speak’ means.
Oil and Gas are more valuable than gold. I am sorry but the world runs on these two things and over time this commodity will rise.
.
You wanted the best, and you got the best. The hottest band in the land, THE FUCKERY!
Just bought PG $57.34 a vote for America if you will.
on SWHC
SWHC began pricing in dismal growth a year before the market crashed.
$4 was rock bottom for some time and now they appear to be divesting of the slowing hunting business and growing pistol sales. Also Obama hand gun sales will peak in the next reported qtr.
It’s a case of bottom fishing a stock with an 8 handle PE.
I’m not laughing.
SWHC low volume pullback to 20 day and 50 day
convergence of those 2 ma’s too
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=swhc
Smith & Wesson?
Don’t they make that there tastee cookin’ earl??
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Lady, oil per barrel is a one time sale, profit based on cost in vs. cost out. Saudi Arabia has a cost in per barrel right now of about 3.00 per barrel, even at 30.00 per barrel they make money.
Companies like XOM have a fixed cost of about 40.00 per barrel on a break even…..at 35.00 per barrel Exxon losses money, but being an integrated company they drill, explore, buy/sell crude as well as refine it, as they have such a high fixed cost per barrel, they, as The Fly has pointed out, and is right, will loose money as oil drops below 40.00
Even the refiners like Tesoro have a hard time making money as oil falls below 40.00 because the ratio of mark up diminishes.
Kass is truly swine. I remember when he announced to buy C at $27 and “just forget about it for a couple of years”. What a putz.
Henry Fool…
You sure about TNA under $27? Not sure about that one…
3 pm shake out.
Why do I feel like this is deja vu all over again?
__________
Artist
That information I know, my family’s business manufactures a lot of the things for oil drilling. We have two huge buildings filled with CNC machines. We need oil around 56.00 a barrel to keep jobs in American and to keep working. This is my Dad’s company not what I do.
Nevermind….even tho my stocks are just dividend holders and nothing more, they are dependent upon the San Juan Basin still producing…so I guess they should be sold off at HUGE losses…according to Mr. Fly instead of waiting for oil/gas to stabilize at around 50.00
I may seemed very myopic about oil/gas but its not just about me but also about my entire family and over 100 employees so I worry about oil/gas prices everyday. I read local reports about drilling and information from Schlumberger and others but listening to Mr Fly just makes it worse.
.
Big Cigar…..yeh Karen Finerman bought C at 21.00 also…….but you have to realize these people are PROFESSIONALs….and they are not playing with their OWN money….they play with OTHER PEOPLES MONEY……it’s real easy to sleep at night loosing someone elses money…..for these assholes and assholettes at least.
Lady G —
As long as you’re not overleveraged, I wouldn’t fret too much.
We’ve got the Luminous Bituminous folk around here, and they’ve ridden through every storm with the precept that “the commodity always comes back.”
_______
Did I say TNA under 27 yeah that one has my balls in vice right now but will pay by end of week.
Lady,
your dad doesn’t go by the initials of “JR” does he?…….just kidding.
But, oil, although as companies who are involved in it would like it to be above 60.00 per barrel, you cannot overlook that it is only controlled by demand, and as we see, current demand is falling, as the months roll on, I cannot see demand rise, only fall further….
as you know, even OPEC cutting production has done nothing, cutting more is dicey, since they are making money and cutting production more is just cutting their own feet off…….
I honestly can see oil per barrel at 20.00 myself by March.
!@*&#*(#&$&*^#&$(@*#$*(&@#*&$^*(@&$)(!(*@#*(!@&$*&#!!!!!!
.
Keep yer trusts for the income but if they are not long term holdings as they should be then hedge them with shorts as Fly suggests.
aapl looks like its gonna get raped tomorrow due to Jobs medical leave…should lead NQ down hopefully..
Henry Fool – yeah… i agree it will pay out… I intend to trade out of FAZ and into it.