Thoughts?
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
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Yeah, and we won’t be able to inflate our way out of this like in the past. Deflation may slaughter us before we get the chance to devalue our dollar to the point where we can actually pay those debts.
So let’s go buy stocks and send fan mail to CNBC.
That’s why the Treasury should put all printing presses on full speed ahead. $100 bills.
There is NO downside to this in our current economic condition. Drop money from helicopters.
Cliff-falling data at the link below suggests prophecy, and that EEV and FXP will rocket from here. The graphs for Chinese exports AND imports show that they are both falling off a freakin’ cliff. Korea and Taiwan as well.
Done.
http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/2009/01/11/this-really-doesnt-look-good/
Kind of makes sense to get yen & gold, doesn’t it?
But inflationary finance is not conducive to savings.
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Watched this over the weekend.
Aligns with my macro analysis of US Peso.
I’ve already agreed with Jake a long time ago on Yen and shiny metals.
Gen Bond
Printing dollars will not solve this crisis. In my opinion, the only way out is to double taxes on the country and take away goods/services.
The whole fiasco was engineered.
Ruble devalued again:
http://iht.com/articles/2009/01/11/business/ruble.php
This one goes out to you oil lovers
http://www.steelguru.com/news/index/2009/01/10/Nzc5NDM%3D/Saudi_expects_global_oil_demand_to_fall_by_45%2525_in_2009.html
Fly,
What happens when you double taxes and consumer spending collapses? Won’t the economy collapse too leading to another depression which will only exasperate the problem? (I’m not saying that taxes shouldn’t be raised, I just don’t know if now is the right time.)
so when shit hits the fan, where’s everyone gonna move to?
Interesting article about third world development… maybe culture does matter?
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Jig — New Zealand. Ducati’s got a bunk.
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Thanks for depressing me Fly. Our politicians are guaranteed not to deal with this until it impacts their next election. Of course, by that time it will be a crisis and too late.
I believe we all end up in diapers in the end, so whats the point of all this nonsense. Spend it all while you can and take it from those who give it out. Government is getting takin for all its worth from both poor and now the rich/banks/auto industry/etc,etc.
China owns us, however they will have big problems if we stop buying goods. I see this on a first hand basis. I will tell you about it some other time.
The end of days are at hand. I suggest you act accordingly.
Regards
chuck
Chuck — SWEET! I finally get to meet my lord Satan!!!!!
Without having watched the video, I can say that if you’d have read extraordinary delusions links I sent you, then you’d know it’s prophecy.
I think Obama will be very cognicent of his actions and will try to make a difference…the issue is the competence of his advisors. Only time will tell…
Maybe Mr. Devil Dog is right….all hell is breaking loose, the end of days are upon us, 2012 Mayan prophecies here we come, we are all screwed.
I have no idea what ‘the average person’ will do? Riot?, Raise arms against the government? That won’t work the government has bigger guns than we do.
Our enemies? they will watch like stealth panthers in the night….waiting for the right time to pounce. Desperate people do desperate things, all semblance of civility goes out the window. Our lowest animal nature rises to the surface.
Maybe there’s a StarTrek episode that can help us.
.
jake, was thinking the same thing.
I’d like to know what assumptions they made regarding GDP growth to generate the debt to GDP prediction.
I also would like to see their predictions after 2030, I suspect there will be a rapid decline in expenditures as the baby boomers die off.
Of course, that doesn’t negate the problem of paying for everything promised to the boomers.
In the end, expect deep benefit cuts and big tax increases, but not before imminent bankruptcy is staring us in the face.
If the foreign debt is paid back with inflated dollars then the prediction of government destabilization is alarmist. My guess is all effort will be expended to accomplish that inflation, which creates its own problems.
My personal answer is own assets not money, assets can be exchanged for currency at a contemporaneous value. The only flaw is when people don’t want, or can’t, buy the asset you will not always have the cash you want exactly when you want it. But I have yet to find a better plan.
As a nation I think we spend the next ten to twenty years like England in the 1970’s.
Learn to live with less and like it. JMHO.
I do think the intent will be to inflate (no epiphany) to repay. The risk is rising interest rates that are not used to defend against inflation, but will be necessary because nobody will puchase the debt.
I’m not as worried about deflation. Face it, our society is full of fat lazy slobs that don’t know the meaning of delayed gratification. The generation coming up sure doesn’t get it either. I’m not saying there won’t be some pain, but society as a whole still would spend on the 2nd or 3rd TV or whatever other shiny thing catches their eyes even if they can’t eat.
In the near term the market will continue to collapse. The caveat being “smart money”. They seem to be worried about missing the big swing which will lead to further big movements up even when the fundamentals aren’t there. They seem to think the bad news is priced in.
Boca, how will your assets avoid deflation … you hold through deflation and hope they reflate back to where you bought them?
I’m still predominantly short as I think I’m directionally right.
One of the fundamental differences between the U.K. and the U.S. is assets. Investors still believe the U.S. has the assets to back-up the value of the USD.
I recently had a dream that disturbed me.
I dreamed that a wave of “lay” assassinations began to occur in the US. Broad daylight, average men and women, young and old, pulling the trigger on business leaders, politicians, bankers, flaunters of wealth, etc. Bodies pushed to the gutter. Bystanders spitting on the dead. It was pretty disturbing.
E8, yes, hold certain assets through deflation, sell only enough to survive and buy as much as I can afford from others dumping their inventory at very distressed prices. Hey, if I’m wrong I will be just as broke as everybody else but have huge amounts of “stuff” bringing me endless hours of entertainment. Either way is a win depending on my attitude.
“MOOBER?”
LOL. You fargin’ kill me, dude.
____________
🙂
It is my new top secret code name, so the dream police can’t find me.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWt-zxKqK3U
makes me want to start buying TBT again, lots and lots of TBT
MOOBER try Ambien. 🙂
When I worked for the company that gives children cancer and covers up the research (you know the one Jake) I could not sleep for days on end. Ambien couldn’t touch my brand of crazy. Nope. Just stay up until the lights start to blur and you need your wife to remind you what city you’re in. Ambien just made me “edgy”
this is funny…
Fly you should bump this shit to the top:
Bernie Speaks!
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Jake & Jig,
Researching water infrastructure stocks a few months ago, I’m pretty sure I remember reading that Australia was depleting their fresh water supplies at an unsustainable rate – as in running out of water for crops/industry in about 15-20 years (sorry this is from memory so that may have been the impression I was left with rather than actual numbers from the article). Know anything about New Zealand’s fresh water supplies? Ducati might not have anything to drink but whiskey.
Prophecy or Alarmism?
January 11, 2009 – 9:51 pm
i dont think its either ..purpose of credit.. you didnt have to save for years to get what you want now ..just make payments ..so im not alarmed at the outcome ..and i saw this comming 47.5 years ago
Sleepy —
New Zealand’s climate is more temperate… Oz more desert-like.
I think they’ve got plenty of water… just watch one of them there Lord of the Rings flicks.
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Everyone knows the U.S. Treasury has been printing money 24/7 for years. What no one really knows is just how long they can add dollars to the system. What is the ceiling to debt creation?
Three Great Banking Documentaries
http://www.gamingthemarket.com/2008/11/three-great-banking-documentaries.html
Stay up late tonight and watch Hugh Hendry on CNBC europe. You will thank me later.
After pondering this issue for many years….and personally being a young man of 16 when the great Ronald Reagan took office.
After 16 combined years of a Bush I & II White House, which, through their positions of power as presidents with a nepotistic common agenda.
Clearly, the only explanation to all of the policies that led us here:
The New World Order.
When you think about it, it makes perfect sense.
Eliminate the middle class…get rid of borders and countries, lead indefinite and costly (yet profitable) wars, create generations of fresh, young minds….
Minds that have been brainwashed through an extremely liberal (and bi-lungual) American public educational system….
From the elimination of the pledge of allegience, to be made ashamed to have any patriotic ideals, or having any kind of national soveriegnty as an ideal is a horrible, horrible thing.
It took a long time, but looks as it is finally here.
Welcome to the New World Order.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a9Syi12RJo
You’re joking right Damon?
The current administration bum rushed the UN every chance they got.
All this NWO stuff makes no sense to anyone who watches US policy from outside US borders.
And dude most human beings are bi-lungual.
I think you need to worry about your first language acquisition skills before you start worrying about “other tongues”.
By the way, a great deal of the world speaks more than one language. Once you can write more than five sentences without tripping over your own subject-predicate order you should consider learning an additional one.
Top three should probably be Mandarin, Hindu, or Spanish based on being able to do business with the rest of the freaking world nimrod.
Oh, right – you wrote that you left Cali porque las gentes no tuvieron la cultura misma but I expect that you could find some good tutors even up there in the Oregon.
Face it, all this NWO alarmism comes from cryptofascists who both a) don’t understand US history and b) refuse the idea that the US belongs in any global hierarchy other than the ones dictating marching orders to the rest of the planet.
Perhaps you should try stand up? I’m willing to concede that your posts are being ironic and self-referential…
I’m bi-lungual….
I have a feeling today will be an exciting day in the markets, too bad I have to be away part of the day. The whole week should be exciting though.
Just call me Shawty.
At this time (6:30 am CT) US futures just about all Green.
This blog is making me think short term bull is in play. Some TNA with for Fib retrace ?
PPT is hard at work these days.
Look for a meltdown of the economy in the next month or two.
SP 300
Bitches
SP futures are down 4 points – i guess thats the gap down some predicted will happen this Monday
Cuervos and Boca – What a trip! I’ll need to re-read this thread after I have a couple more cups of coffee and perform CPR on my dead laptop. Since I am also bi-lungual, and have worked and lived with others that are bi-lungual, I’d like to weigh in on this, but it will have to wait. Please keep up the good fight while I’m away.
FLY – This Hugh Hendry video ?
Looks like he’s heavily long Govt. bonds and thinks they will continue to rise. Same strategy he pursued in 2002. On the other hand he could just be talking his book.
wee wee mon sewer, oye como va, polly voo a homme homme, come and tell me who? Kowshon onglay, haw haw haw!!!
New Zealand? WTF.
They have sex with sheep there.
Australia is the place to go.
BI-LUNGUAL ?
I would say most of us have 2 lungs.
Bi-LINGUAL on the other hand – a little different.
Frederick Flinstone III