While in recovery mode, the fundamentals are unimportant. What money managers need to figure out is: where is the true value of the market, without a full blown collapse? Meaning: providing the banks are flush with Federal tier one capital, at what level does the Dow become expensive?
We all know there is a lot of bad news to come. However, markets do not discount all of the bad news at once, idiots. With time, the markets will price the market where it belongs. However, for now, following a massive decline, it (the market) will reflate back to “non Aubrey McClendon margin call” levels.
My guess, that level ranges from 9,500- 10,500.
A good sign for the banks hides in the performance of preferred shares. For the unwashed type, you can track some via [[PGX]] and [[PGF]] .
If we are in classic melt up mode, the market will close at the highs of the day, trade lower tomorrow, then proceed to punch the mustaches off of shorts sellers on Wednesday.
A few things to note:
Dry bulk shipping rates are in the gutter, yet the shipping stocks are up. For a trade, [[SEA]] is worth a look.
The 8% divi in Pfizer Inc. [[PFE]] is better than keeping money in the bank.
[[M]] has a rock solid line of credit, via JPMorgan Chase & Co. [[JPM]] and Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] , for 2 billion—thru 2012.
[[UKK]] is a kickass upside ETF.
And, finally, “The Fly” wins again, even when the world is about to end.
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HEY FLY WHY YOU LIKE MACY’S I OWN THE DOG
Any word on MVIS. Would you even consider buying some?
Boomer wanted me to ask you how you can be so good at the stock market if you don’t know the difference between their and there?
Macy’s is retail. And, it is so cheap, I am sure upper management is busy vomiting on eachother.
Right now, the stock is being priced for bankruptcy.
Pardon the typo. I don’t edit my posts, nor do I take a lot of time with them.
Fuck off.
Furthermore, “The Fly’s” grammar and syntax is always on the highest level, making most third tier bloggers surrender under the black flag of annihilation.
line of credit might be significant now, and the trade is good, but the new paradigm is “no borrowing allowed…”
Ask someone in 10-15 years if they have a credit card, or if they’re getting a loan… and then be ready to duck so as not to get your mustache puched off for saying such foolish things.
Everything will unravel.
MVIS is a lottery ticket. At best.
It’s good to see bears like Tim Knight hopping back in. It’s going to be a good 4th quarter for da bulls.
I miss the days of Woody always bagging on your grammar.
It’s like he was forced to sign a “cease and desist” order once you tabbed him…
-DT
Fly – who gives a fcuk about syntax and vobaculary . You’re purpose is to bnak a fcuklaod of coin. You’re not a fcukin english professor or some shit.
Fly I concur….
LOC maybe right longterm, but that makes no dif right now….LOC lighten up that were not down another 500 points today…this is a chance to buy some nifty fifty for the long haul…
Actually the ‘black flag’ means something else entirely Señor Tropicana:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarchist_symbols#Black_flag
PFF also for preferreds
When using a black flag to threaten annihilation of 3rd-tier bloggers, the black flag of choice would be this one:
http://www.old-time.com/commercials/1940's/Ad%20Black%20Flag%20Super%20Insect%20Spray%202.jpg
A daring move for a fly.
I know what the Black Flag means. I am a huge fan of it.
#IU&(@!
http://tinyurl.com/3lolfh
Back off, buzz boy!
http://www.old-time.com/commercials/OTR/Ad%20Fly%20Ded%202.jpg
hey, what do you guys use to receive the morning analyst remarksj, such as recs and estimates, in real-time? (not including cnbc broadcasts, because i’m not at home) JPM shit the bed today thanks to a C estimate cut, but i didn’t find that out until about 10min ago. thx.
ROFL @ short sellers.
Off to drink from my chalice.
Worse than those who sold in a panic at the Friday lows are those who tried to short the market this morning right after the opening. Talk about pushing your luck.
JPM might have also sprayed the bowl because all of its calls for its retail clients have been dead wrong for weeks.
Not that Old Beardy could care.
These people are in excellent shape despite their anxiety and will make for some top quality Soylent Green.
wait, you mean it’s no longer cool to put a sign up saying “the end is near”…
DANG!
Master Fly knows what time it is!
I like PFE, a lot. Q is a lottery ticket for both price and divi, as far as I’m concerned.
But if you’re going to chase divis, you’re going to have to go swim in the REIT cesspool…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHk7zahvDFI
Fly, may your chalice be sweet today and even sweeter on Wednesday.
Since when did Apu become a money manager ?
UYM = YUMMY! 26.48 +3.78 (+16.65%)
….and check out UKF , thinly traded , but DAMN sexy!
“My best guess, today will be an epic short squeeze for the ages.”
Time machines are cool.
From MarketWatch about an hour ago:
“U.S. banks are lobbying Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to take the same step (as the Eurotrash) of guaranteeing interbank lending.”
Holding all of my UYG in belief this will come to pass. Anyone else?
You gotta love what GOOG & BIDU can do to the shorts.
I am selling covered oct calls at ridiculous strikes.
Anton – me too. Maybe tomorrow AM before the open?
Fly – Very, very, nice call on close at the high today. I enjoy banking coin very much.
Hey Fly, do you think UKK is a lot better than UWM? The bid/ask are pretty wide and the volume is pretty light on UKK.
It sure had a hell of a move today though.
well done Fly. now it’s time to award the asshat of the week to DEVILDOG. anyone seen that guy today?
I saw him at lunch time roadkill… I think it was a 18 wheeler with a tandem trailer.
# CAP Says:
Call me crazy but I think we could see Dow 10000 by Friday.
October 13th, 2008 at 10:56 am
I made this rather bold call with the Dow up 300 this morning. Lets see if I am right.
Fly likes Macys only because he goes there every Christmas to sit on Santa’s lap.
Yogi,
If futures look scary weak tonight, a.m. announcement re interbank guarantee is a good bet. Somehow, I don’t think they want to do this, tho, or it would already have been announced. Maybe with dwindling ammunition, the Fed’s been waiting to use this as a concession to get some of the big banks to buy up some of the little ones.
But like they say in old movies, “It’s quiet… Too quiet.”
did you see the DUG close????
these ETFs are trading funny. 20 buck drop in 2 hours…percentage wise, off the charts.
doesnt seem to be reflecting components, just supply and demand disruptions in the etf
DevilDog….oh where…oh where can he be?
Possibly burying a hole in his back yard….?
Hey! A great day, up over 800 points. Congrats to all the longs.
SMN went from $107 on Friday to $68 today, thank god I hung on to that!!
Can I woo?
Fly,
There are reports on Kim Jong II’s health saying that he might be in the hospital. North Korea news channel show him performing his own brain surgery. Now that guy is amazing.
Hey, wow, imagine that…if NOV can manage to rally another 10%, Fly will be back to his original buy-point. Of course he will cite that he averaged down, in classic “Bill Miller” fashion. Being a sophisticated trader along the lines of BM and not paying attention to stop-losses has clearly paid dividends over the medium and longer-term in this market, eh?
Of course, it seems most people here are more focused on outcome over process… pretty awesome rally all the same
TP,
You’re on a roll.
Anton,
I agree. I thought it odd that they did not announce last night. I guess we just watch the libor fix tomorrow AM, and the futures, and see what happens.
Cap there is nothing bold about that call. All other waterfall crashes have been met by a bounce of similar magnitude. 1929, 1931, 2001, etc. That means an 18% bounce from the lows is pretty likely, and we just got 11.5%.
but I still commend the play, of course
Danny – Its a bold call considering I expect it to happen by Friday. If I said 10000 by sometime between now and December that would be weak.
Dow 10000 by Friday. October 13th, 2008 at 10:56 am
It is an especially bold call in that it posits the existence of a parallel universe nearly identical to ours, one where the United States of Ameriga celebrates the 30th of June with massive displays of fireworks.
EFR Enerplus Resources Fund pays %17 dividend per year at this price (the close today).
they aren’t geniuses (slowly declining for a few years) but it looks like they would hover between 30 and 40 while they pay loot.
a bubbling crude and so forth.
opinions ?