I made fun of “The Woodshedder Prophecy” yesterday for saying “we need several 800 point drops,” in order to form a bottom. Scratch that idea.
I am going to one up all of the fuckers on CNBC and say “we need” to drop like 5,000 points, over the next 3 days, in order to “form a bottom.”
Keep in mind, that bottom will be built upon fire and shit. Nonetheless, you will be happy to know, it will be “the bottom.”
Sifting through stocks this evening, I can make a strong argument for mass bankruptcies, from [[M]] to Prudential Financial, Inc. [[PRU]] . As you know, I have been warning of this crash for more than a year. As a matter of fact, up until two days ago, I was up more than 60% for the year. My gains are still bountiful, but my blood pressure is through the roof.
This failure is indicative of a failed society. One that let a corrupt government lead it by the nose into financial, moral and social bankruptcy, which inevitably may lead to national default.
Erroneously, I find myself long equities in the midst of this crisis. My plans, as always, is to slaughter them all. No seriously, I will be forced to duck and cover tomorrow. I might have to throw on some lightening fast hedges, in order to stem my losses. Moreover, I will look for a “real bottom” to form, around Dow 3,000—giving me motivation to lever up and get long some General Electric Company [[GE]] around $4.
No matter how much money you lose, always remember, there are armies of space aliens out there waiting to abduct you and perform anal cavity searches. Do not let those little big eyed green fuckers capture you and laser beam you up into their spaceships. They are first class asshats.
Top pick: Early Alien radar detection system
UPDATE: Apparently, Krull lost his shirt.
[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDD7Wjbot_8 450 300] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
Whats the symbol for that Alien radar detection system?? Thats about the only thing I won’t short right now.
Hmmm…
Looks like I won’t be the only one lying awake tonight.
-DT
ABDUCTY (ADR)
we are so screwed…
Totally man. Like sooo screwed.
Homo
no more 401K contributions!
the “government” just takes 10% of your monthly income.
(if you have an income)
it was sad to see you go all bullish and shit only to have to grab your ass and kiss 20% goodbye… now that is homo
Yes, looking forward to National Coming Out Day.
Good point Z Bob.
It will be even sadder to see me down another 50% tomorrow, when the market falls to 1,000 Dow.
Or, maybe I will track you down and punch your chest hairs off.
just to set it straight, you had it all figured out…you just out-thought yourself… should be up 200%… but 40% on a couple dozen mil isn’t chump change… me, i’m just a piker so i’ll never know…
Going long on the open off the “THE FLY HAS GIVEN UP ALL HOPE” indicator……see you at the bank…..errrr, at the home safe I just bought and my new hollowed out mattress.
Fly,
If the gov’t is about to invest in the banks, isn’t this exactly the wrong time to sell UYG? And if you’re going to hedge at this stage in the game, are there any ETFs you’d choose, or just short individual stocks?
I’ll take my answer off air and thank you again for all your work on behalf of the children.
im making too much money while every one looses their shirt., i feel guilty.
I will be buried with my UYG. Hedges may include BOM, SRS and TWM.
Who knows?
The Gov’t has to address these issues immediately.
MS on the verge of credit downgrade. They will get ape raped tomorrow.
Fly, we are all considering that a major drop/ crash is a likely situation. Can you provide a counterfactual situation where we dont? ie, what would it take for there not to be a crash?
Short,
Not as guilty as we’re going to feel when we roast you alive over a pile of worthless stock certificates and hundred dollar bills.
But we’ll get over it.
Short,
I just don’t understand why everyone is trying to fight the trend. This is pretty easy times. Market is in a death spiral so short shit.
When (if) things turn around then we can go from there, until then…..
The Gov’t needs to guarantee inter-bank lending to bring LIBOR down.
That’s a starter.
And, the Fed needs to buy equity futures.
Fly,
No I am not short. I short all the way down till the mid 10000s and then think ‘Hey this is a good place to go long’ So being the riverboat gambler that I am, I start loading up SSO and QLD every 5% drop. This has to stop somewhere right ? Fuck ! Probably not. Next stop zero. It sucks ‘cos I was up nearly 40% YTD only to watch it evaporate.
No worries though. The strategy is simple. We get a bounce tomorrow, I sell a portion of my longs and buy SPY puts. We crash on Monday, sell the puts and go long a shitload of UYG October calls.
This all ends with a 1000-1500 single day drop. Non of that pussy 500-600-777 point drops The market wants real blood. The bottom is 7100. Mark that down. A complete retrace of the March 2003 to October 2007 move. The whole 2003-2007 bull market was built on bullshit right ? So the market is going to send us back to the beginning.
God forbid they decide the whole 1982 -2000 bull market was created on bullshit too. We’ll be at 1000 by next Friday.
buy GDX…it will explode more than general equities once things turn around. COMEX gold is a farce. There are rumors that COMEX gold contract holders are asking for delivery and can’t get it. They will move to gold miners as they can’t get physical since every dealer is sold out. Check any of them. You can’t get physical precious metals from anyone. Load up on GDX. It will be in 2010 what the QQQQ was in 2000 times 10.
The problem with shorting here, I should know, is the likelihood of a sharp reversal, effectively cutting off your balls.
I am long DGP.
Fly,
Explain this one to me:
“DECK reports preliminary third-quarter sales of $195 million, a 51% increase from a year ago and better than expected $175 million.”
Is that doucheanomics or what?
3,000 – That’s 1990!
Gold:Dow ratio will be 1:1 within 4 years at the latest.
Or continue to go long and lose your balls that way…. however you want to do it.
Do you see where lies and fascism get you. Love was the answer, but you kicked it to the curb and decided to enslave the world for profits.
Suffer your fate as your markets crumble. Next will be your currencies.
Then Martial law will be declared and only those who have prepared will last till our arrival.
We shall wipe fascism from the face of your planet.
Prepare to meet your maker.
GW Bush,
As a proud new owner of some Ugg slippers, I, for one, believe those numbers.
-DT
Thanks, Fly. Feel like the guy who got his arm caught mountain climbing and finally cut it off with a pocket knife with this fucking UYG. Maybe hedge and hold on rather than cut it off.
BTW, turns out the mountain guy could have gotten his arm loose if he’d only been willing to let go of his iPhone.
True story.
It’s not a joking matter.
fuck DGP. Barclays could go down. ETN = debt. Get physical or buy mining stocks. Look at the $gold:$xau ratio. It is the lowest it has been since 1974. The miners need to catch up.
After last night’s Nostradamus call, Paulson is sending a black helicopter as we speak to pick up Woodshedder to advise Paulson directly on how to wind up this credit crunch crash scenario as soon as possible. He’ll be standing behind Paulson at the news conference, wearing an IBC tie.
Yo, anyone have any of those Reeses things? They have a candy shell, but are filled with peanut butter?
If not, it’s cool. Anyway, can I implant some shit in you?
Cool, thanks.
Proof of your fascism:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKP4sE1NbLk&feature=related
I love chaos.
We need our government to BUY EQUITIES. Announce that Treasury is buying $20 billion worth of broad stock index funds EVERY DAY for the next seven weeks.
That is a GOOD use of $700 billion, and those stocks will shore up Social Security!
Let the fuckin’ banks and brokers GO BROKE.
Fly, I know you hate charts, but look at this. This is just 3 years. It is the most out of whack since 1974. The gold mining stocks will explode over the next 3 years…http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
What you can do:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5YQD_uNllIc&feature=related
Fly,
Isn’t all this stuff that the government is doing going to create moral hazard?
I am so glad I read IBC. I hedged my retirement accounts with SRS last week.
Turns out to be just about the right mix at the moment. I also own a lot of GLD (30%) which is my own idea.
Due to unacceptably high per-hour costs, all black helicopters will remain hangared until further notice. Queues are now forming for black Priuses and Segways.
A swift drop kick in the nuts say you FLY…
Capitulation has not come yet. Wait till 7500 and then we see capitulation.
I’m joing the David Tice camp 5k-6k DOW…at this rate thats about 5-10 trading days away….
there is an open chart gap at dow 2600 from jan 1991. only gap that i know that has not been filled. it will not be filled, and if it is, it would not matter
Black,
They can take that scottrade fuckers helicopter
Hey Boca, since we’re all “end of days” these days, there’s an old sci fi novel called “Alas, Babylon” set in a post apocalyptic Florida in the area I lived as a teenager. Was pretty good as I recall, but I was a kid when I read it. Might come in handy as a survivalist manual in the days to come, tho that area is too overpopulated now to support so many people living off the land as the book describes. For your Post Apocalypse reading…
Send Lawyers, guns and money
The shit has hit the fan
Hop on the SKF express. Stick a loose stop on it and presto casho
“This failure is indicative of a failed society. One that let a corrupt government lead it by the nose into financial, moral and social bankruptcy, which inevitably may lead to national default.”
This is exactly how I feel. I am betting the sheep wake up as wolves and crack some skulls before we get anywhere close to zero.
The people at the top won’t stand a chance because they are so heavily out numbered and dependent on the proletariat to wipe their pampered asses.
Fly – your tone has me confused. I THINK you are being facetious. Please, plain-speak for the simple-minded.
Are you serious about this post? Surely not.
Thanks.
Will the IBC PPT launch when the DOW hits 1?
How about we toss around some market scenarios?
Here’s mine for the moment. we open down big, rally off that low, get green, close with a green flurry, finish on the high tick.
Crash Monday. Dow 7k .. S&P 750 .. NDX zero
“giving me motivation to lever up and get long some General Electric Company around $4.”
hahaha – man, that made my night.
it’s funny because it’s true.
So lets say the Treasury steps in and guarantees interbank lending (tomorrow) and then buys relentlessly in the futures market. Is anyone even looking at fundamental conditions in credit markets now? Arent we at levels in equity markets where everything is a technical reaction? Is there any situation where a bounce (for any reason) won’t be met with furious selling? Hate to ask, but it seems like the answer is no.
Great comment Anton. “Alas Babylon” paperbacks have been good sellers for me this year. Interesting sci-fi book and very timely info on how a small rural town can survive post-apocalypse. You grew up in what I call “Old Florida”, nice.
There’s always the Everglades… gator meat is tasty.
The sentiment change on this blog in the past 24 hours is startling.
I mean, I’m still scared, but everyone else is too.
What trips the trading curbs? A combination of volume and price action? What would it take for the market to shut down completely tomorrow?
Boomer, I think he’s being sarcastic with a big helping of dark truth mixed in.
I have a very dark sense of humor like that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4HthUPYlh4M&feature=related
Make sure you make it atleast 24 seconds in.
LMAO
Contractor, I’m not fearful, I think I’ve given up.
Also don’t forget Bush is speaking tomorrow morning — the markets never respond well to his speeches, he’s not good at inspiring economic confidence.
Boca,
Gators used to swim away when we jumped into the creek near my old house. Water moccasins, not so much. Over time it seems gators have lost their fear of humans. They think we’re tasty, too. And now there’s Dexter to worry about. Watch yourself in the “Glades.”
Contractor,
858 would put us down 10% for the day… that would halt it… need to brush up on the market halt rules
My backup plan has always been to go up to our land in Connecticut next to the state forest, nice hills, all forested and with a natural spring, and live like a hippie. Hell the land isn’t good for anything else right now.
Dow futures down 239!
boca,
I hear you. I was being a bit facetious.
Not about the me being scared part though. I was serious about that. I’ve never experienced anything like this before. Everything seems to be unraveling before our eyes.
Thanks Bad News Bears. That is well within the realm of possibility at this point.
Chivas, exactly, re: the gap.
Wishing you good luck tomorrow, Contractor. (and to all of us as well)
RE: Market Scenarios
Dow opens down 1000 points and drops to – 2000 by 10am. Riots break out on the floor of the NYSE. Bob Pisani takes a blow to the face and breaks his nose. Mobs attack the CNBC studio. Dennis Kneale receives a baseball bat to the back of his head. Jim Cramer gets forced into a clown suit and paraded down Lexington. Erin Burnett gets gangraped. Mark Haines gets tossed down an empty elevator shaft. Charlie Gasbagarino gets hit by a chair losing his balance and falling down a stairwell. Larry Kudlow and Don Luskin are forced into gimp costume’s and sent on air to do Kudlow and Co.
Bad news Bears,
the circuit breaker start with 10% of the begining of the quarter….that is a 1030 drop son…
George W speaks at 10 AM tomorrow to reassure the nation, that alone is worth -200 on the DOW. The man is clueless.
Hasn’t that guy destroyed enough wealth, already?
For the first time ever, I am afraid to trade.
WTF?
Mr.Mortgage is God
“I am going to one up all of the fuckers on CNBC and say “we need” to drop like 5,000 points, over the next 3 days, in order to “form a bottom.”
What? Did you and Albert Edwards have lunch today?
Cap,
May all but the E. Burnett part come to pass. Wouldn’t make this all worthwhile, but it would give the world hope that there will at least be justice ahead. Then on to the homes of Mozillo, et al.
http://www.ibankcoin.com/woodshedderblog/index.php/2008/09/16/circuit-breakers-and-other-market-volatility-procedures/
Everything you need to know about circuit breakers / trading halts.
Short MS?
Great stuff, Wood. Thanks.
Anton: Stockpile cookies. Hell with the guns and ammo. The guy with the last bag of Mother’s cookies is gonna be the richest guy in town.
Their parent company (which bought Mother’s in 2006) just declared bankruptcy and shut down all operations today. More details at
http://www.suntimes.com/business/1211866,CST-FIN-cookie09.article
Looks like a privately-held company with, according to the article, “assets of $50M, liabilities of $500M”. The depressing thing is that it was the input costs (spike in the costs of corn-based sugar, oil-based energy, and wheat-based flour) that destroyed ’em, and the costs of all of those commodities have all come back into a region where they’d probably be viable.
That cookie factory had been running in Oakland since 1914:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/09/BU6413DQQO.DTL
So I haul ass after work to the grocery store and grab a few bags. Their part of the shelf space was already half-empty. Guy at the cash register remarked that he’d been seeing a lot of these cookies sell today. Told him the story. Person behind me waved her kid in the general direction of the cookie aisle while my purchase was being rung up.
Fuck runs on the bank, now we’ve got a regional run on cookies!
At least Main Street’s finally learning that when Mama Market aint’ happy, ain’t nobody happy. Still sucks that I gotta give up my cookie fix for them to learn that lesson. They can always print more money, but when the last frosted Circus Animal Cookie is eaten, there will be no more.
That’s the kind of shit that worries me, though. There must be tens of thousands of privately-held small/medium-sized businesses out there on the verge of failure, and they’re by definition all off our (publicly-traded-company) radar screens. But as they fall, the banks steadily accumulate additional losses they have to write off. Maybe the endgame isn’t banks being swallowed whole by Paulson’s sharks, but about everybody being nibbled to death by ducks.
I would like to know what is on peoples buy list (seriously) if we go to 7500. What would you buy with plans to hold as intermediate to long term buy- to cheap to ignore. If the last several years has been fluff and we go back to early part of this decade a lot of things still seem fluffy. I know it is not that simple but for example Toll is 4 times what it was in 2000. POT is 10 times. Dupont on the other hand is at 1995 levels with 4.5% dividend. Just curious if anyone has a buy list besides short side. By the way thanks for AN idea Fly- puts are doing well.
-5000 is for pussies. Let’s go -8579.19 asap.
Your government was to busy installing cameras on every traffic pole to catch you in a transgression, while they allowed “radioactive” financial by-products to be produced in masse…job well done.
GW,
Your absolutely right. I knew it was 10%, like I said need to brush up. Thanks for the link Woodshedder. I really hope that we don’t need to see an example of it in action but….would not surprise me if we do.
Interesting that the S&P low and close were 666.90 and 666.17 from the ’07 high. Also, the SPY aftermarket close at 8pm est was exactly 6.66 lower than yesterday’s close. Very interesting.
Am I seeing this correctly? Is the Hang Seng up over 500?
_______
But all this tv talk about being oversold…support levels, etc, is all bullshit. That shit is based on market that technically has issues. NAS bubble, 9-11 terror, etc. This is much different, thats why none of those rules apply. Bottomline, financial companies have a series of assets with a book value of trillions but a real value of ZERO. Once the unwinding really gets going, insurance cant pay up, we will have a TOTAL AND COMPLETE COLLAPSE upon us. Dow 4,500.
Jake< your missing pixels on your computer, look for the little “-“
Boca- you should also check out On The Beach by Nevil Shute. Drastic measures for drastic times.
I don’t know if I’d want to buy GE, even at $4. They’re basically a bank. Look at how well that’s turned out for GM.
Jake… Lay off the bottle. It’s down 1300
Spot gold up $35.
Jake wins, even when it appears he has lost and to Woodshedder, no less.
______
no your not, down 1325 ~ 9%
You are recused:
You tell me what you see.
________
“The Fly” is always serious, except for when he is joking.
George Bush in an idiot. My apologies to the 11% of you who still like him.
We’d be better off with a chimp as President.
Liberals out there, please do not respond to the previous sentence.
Jake, for some reason the Hang Seng data you posted is from yesterday.
http://finance.yahoo.com/#market_summary_asia
It’s down about 8%
That’s from yesterday douche…
Look at today
Is there a ETF for natural gas?
Here is some stuff I want to buy when the DOW gets below 8000.
JPM WFC
FCX ATVI
AAPL GOOG
HPQ HP
WMT KO
MCD T
XOM CHK
SWN AUY
Plus some oil, gold and natty g for good measure.
GET YOUR FUCKING LISTS AND CASH READY
Oh shit, my government sponsored computer has Dow futures up 1,000.
Is that real, or is it Government fakery?
I was convinced Monday was the bottom after the 500 point rally of the lows. I went long in size. Right now I feel really sick. I could throw up looking at the screens. I can imagine how many traders have been wiped out the last few days. Its been surreal this whole week. I’ve been laughing it off as a big joke. Now the realization is starting to sink in. My God, what we’re seeing if absolutely incredible. History is being made right here.
Mushroomz,
UNG.
CAP:
A little tough hate coming your way.
Shut the fuck up and man up. So what you lost money. It’s not as important as you think. Go make more you fucking faggot.
You were right all along, until Monday. You fucked up and believed in the solvency of America. What a silly notion.
Don’t worry. Soon enough the currency will be routed as foreigners flee from treasuries, effectively canceling out all market gurus under a blanket of hyper inflation.
Get long LBT, for the dollar is next to die.
NQ -33, ES -29.75, YM -241
New lows set tonight.
NQ: 1230.50 (Naz 100)
ES: 873 (S&P 500)
YM: 8274 (Dow 30)
Fly, I have the same fears about the currency.
You think the Euro might break before the dollar?
You think the Asians are going to sell Dollars and die a double death?
I don’t know. Just food for thought, thanks to Chivas.
It is amazing how Moodys and S&P have been asleep for over 5 years and now they want downgrade GS and MS. Where the F*ck have they been?????? Is the CEO of Moodys Bin Laden????
The last thing we need is the Govt. buying stock. It didn’t work in Japan and it won’t work here. Get the credit markets working again and we will rally a few thousand points!! Unfortunately, that will only bring us back to last week!!!!!
My list: JNJ, PFE, CVX, NOV, K, and PG. Already own some XOM, add to it. DD and MMM are tempting.
Also, hold my breath, grab my balls, and buy armloads more of Q.
Have we decided yet…. is it different this time?
Recusancy — do me a favor and go fuck a pencil sharpener. Obviously the site is fucked since the Nikkei is showing today’s price.
Pissant.
_______
Shroomz — MON, CHK, UPS.
I can’t believe you didn’t put GE in there. But then, I can’t believe I wouldn’t either.
Sigh.
___________
Yes! JNJ, how could I forget that?
Maybe AMGN too.
___________
Looks like Schitti gave up the Wachovia Ghost.
___
I wish I could embed this.
This is the market tomorrow AM:
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/video/watch/987304/
If they do start fleeing the treasuries then “Main Street” will take to the streets. That will be the shit hit the fan moment.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
Shed, no question the Euro is fucked. Europe is circling the bowl, both demographically and economically. The only country worse off then them is Russia.
The only currencies that will work will be net savers.
Swiss Francs and yen.
But I’m sticking with warm, buttery, slippery shiny gold.
______
think of the house calls tomorrow. joey bag’o donuts is calling in saying…”just gimme another day…the mkts will be up tomorrow i’m sure”…they’ve only 40 k equity and 120 k debt and a 20 k margin call and they are all locked into the idea that its “just a paper loss”… they cant admit to the loss by offsetting….multipy this scenario on a mass market across the planet scale of discount brokerages ( europe, china, BRIC….( multiply by a couple hundred million accounts)….thats my theory of whats happening now. have the pros lost control to joey bag o donuts margin calls?
Since someone mentioned Bin Laden, I can’t help but think that somewhere in a cave on the Afghan Pakistan border, Bin Laden is laughing at us. His turban, AK-47 and 3 goats are worth more than the US economy.
Fly – I have a plan. I’m not bitching. It’s just amazing to see the carnage that occurred this week and its not over. If someone told you this would happen even a month back, you would think they were high or mentally ill.
I’ve also thought about dollar devaluation due to debt default. I didn’t know who would make it out of that situation given that everyone seems dependant on us and we have the most guns.
So would FXY work in that situation or would you actually have to go and open a bank account in Japan or Switzerland?
The chimp President could also pick the banks to reinflate. At least that way it would be fair.
I’d invest in Chiquita bananas.
Done with my analysis. I’m going 200% SHORT at the open with SRS and SHORT LMT.
why is it not allowing me to post a link from Wiki or Yahoo???
If the forigners start fleeing the treasuries than that will be the shit hit the fan moment. Wanna see main street take to the streets??? look up hyperinflation on Wiki.. the picture says it all
What up Boomer. Been a while. Hope all is well. Glad to see you are still livin outside the dilbert cube. L..I..V..I..N….
Anunnanki, I just drew a cartoon pic of the prophet muhammed on a piece of TP and wiped my arse with it. It was not a conspiracy, just a good old ars wiping.
Our money manager said they’re is plenty of cash out there,from his recent letter…”The notion portrayed in the media that there is a shortage of capital and that this is the problem with the market today is not completely correct. There is no shortage of capital. In fact, we as a country have more cash available today relative to the total U.S. stock market capitalization than we have had in the past 15 years when adjusted for interest rates. The chart below shows that savings accounts, CD’s, and money market funds, as of June 30, 2008 are equal to 82.19% of the total U.S. stock market capitalization. At the bottom of the 2002 recession it was 73.42%, and in March of 2000 it was only 30.98%.
wtf is going on here…if you have to ask if there is an etf for something, i suggest that you take your money, fold it over, put it in your pocket, and walk the hell out of this market…and stop trying to pick bottoms, thinking this train wreck will stop at 8000!!! it’s over folks…OVER
Everyone thinks they know something special about all this crap…bullshit…walk away while you still can…most of you are probably those idiots that are trying to figure out if you should sell now…please. Calling in to Cramer and saying boo ya and shit… This market will rally just enough to suck the rest of you dumb asses in just before it goes to zero…whatever is left will be taxed at 90%.
welcome to Armageddon, fuckers…you wished for it…here you fucking go!
good luck fly…it’s been nice reading your banter, but you don’t need luck. Just these dumb asses handing you their money.
oh, and in case you people think i’m having a bad day or lost my stash, i’ve been 100% cash since July…screw inflation
Wow this Kirby Daily’s take is extremely scary … no place to hide for a long time
What you got against Lockheed Martin?
where did that come from?
sorry, devildog short LMT
Anyone notice how everyone on here last night was bullish and now you are all ridiculously (or should I say egregiously)bearish.
F you all. You are the biggest contrarian indicators.
Sack up!!
Tomorrow we will be down early and then the shorts will cover like pulling the string on a Yo Yo because of the egregious amounts of money the G7 are going to throw at global markets.
SSTUrn — I am in agreement, save I think the scenario will evolve when AIG’s CDS Gordian knot gets figured out by 11:30 or so.
I’m still buying gold, and saying a novena.
No kidding.
_________
The most important thing to decide the faith of equity tommorrow will be how the Lehman CDS auction settlement goes.
I wonder which commerical banks issued this dark clouds of doom. If it is viewed very negative, i believe financial institutions are doomed, however, if a slow up down reaction occurs, allow time and some luck for a short term bottom until the next set of bad news. (choice a. within weeks due to earnings b. within months due to …?…CDS writers had no reserves oops, sorry can’t pay your insurance money.)
We won’t be much longer. We have located the stolen time machine that is destroying this Reality. When we retrieve it we will remove this unfortunate branch from the cosmos.
Perhaps the Dow will return to 14K or perhaps you will all go Poof!
Jake,
i also agree. but not about the gold or novena. i think the last few days gold has been trading more out of fear and not potential inflation.
being a trader, i hate straight moves, because you can’t get the most bang of the it unless if you are leveraged crazily. So, thats the only reason why i want a short term rebound to trade the gaps and make steadily.
However, in fx, i don’t mind a straight extended moves, as leverage (50-100) easily available to me, so called sheep (retail investor).
Gold, IMHO, is going to get homohammered soon.
chivas, you are right.
A great move would be short gold when the markets calm down and start the dead cat bounce/ believing in the bottom again with full credit to our central bankers.
They will be using Occam’s Razor to cut that Gordian Knot. Unfortunately, it is suspending the Sword of Damocles. Tomorrow is going to be mythological.
Z_Bob: Go fuck a rabid rat. Congrats on being all cash. It’s not that hard when you have $500 to your name.
The Fly is God.
Unfortunately, we are all caught in the Minotaur’s Labyrinth.
________
Chivas, no novenas? I’m telling mama.
_______
Chivas,
Seriously, the only way they get the fuggouttathis is by running the presses, morning, noon and night.
Get ye some.
Jake,
novenas? stopped believing 12 yrs ago.
no running of presses now. they will borrow, borrow and borrow. mostly from our asian friends, and they will be happy to lend to us.
Chivas, sorry to hear.
He works in mysterious way, you know.
________
Jake, after my wife died, i stopped believing.
Zombie,
don’t know about that…maybe you know what that’s like from experience since you sleep with the dead…
in case you missed it… i know fly is god, i admire his audacity to drop 1.2 mil on citibank watch it go against him, hold on and take a profit…i’m the little piss ant on his shoulder telling him to step his game up and knock all this little peons out of here.
everyone wishing for the credit meltdown and rejoicing in it…
fly posted a few weeks ago that such fruition of the derivative meltdown would lead to the demise of all that we have come to know and now it is here and we are picking stocks to buy at 8000, at 7100 and asking about certain etf’s…that was my only point…sorry you missed it, assface
but you know what’s funny…as one political candidate has “gained” on the other, this market went to shit
damn… fly just smacked me to the floor and stomped the life out of me…i’m done.
Contractor,
“I’ve also thought about dollar devaluation due to debt default. I didn’t know who would make it out of that situation given that everyone seems dependant on us and we have the most guns.
So would FXY work in that situation or would you actually have to go and open a bank account in Japan or Switzerland?”
everbank.com is another option
chivas – I’m sorry your wife died. I can’t imagine losing mine. 16 yrs last month. Must have been terrible for you.
Boomer,
thanks.
it was, it is.
Chivas- peace, to you and her soul.
(from a believer)
I like this Z_Bob guy, bring him back. He is filled with anger.
Shall we start discussing religion now?
That’s what depressed men are supposed to do, no?
Or, maybe we can reminisce over the good ol’ days when the dow was 5 digits?
11 billion shrs traded on the NYSE today …. capitulation needed to get to at least 11-12 billion shrs rather than the sub 10 billion shr days we’ve been seeing ….
From OEW tonight:
“By 3:00 the SPX 961 support pivot gave way. And then by 3:30 the SPX 935 short term pivot gave way as well. Nearing the close another long term pivot was challenged, SPX 912. The SPX hit 909 and closed right at the support pivot. ”
“Support for the SPX drops again to 912 and then 848, with resistance at 961 and then 990. If you are playing the pivots, there are only a few left before we hit the 2002 lows: 912, 848, 789 and then 768. Short term momentum is extremely oversold, and the near term indicators are still there as well. In the past six trading days this market has dropped nearly 22%. That’s a typical bear market within itself. From the October 2007 high this market is down 42% at todays low. Tomorrow at 8:30 the trade deficit and import prices. More importantly tomorrow is the CDS settlement day for Lehman bond defaults. The results of that settlement will impact the market.”
Fuck Romania, let’s go to Iceland! (they’re so fucked, 400 USD round trip lulz)
sleeping is for sheep.
long UYG?
GS and WFC are going lower, right?
GS back to the low 80’s and WFC breaks $25 tomorrow , .. right?
…. FUCK BANKS. johnny McMargin and his hopped up loans of leverage are no more. what is an investment bank? , do they still have those? … the world is over. why do we buy dips? the pen is blue.
BREAKING NEWS:
Don Harrold just challenged Woodshedder to a guitar off.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjbwiiV0l5k
Your turn Wood.
GS will rape Warren Buffett via sudden bankruptcy. That will be my only solace in seeing such a thing.
Anyone remember the good old days, when Fly couldn’t swear for two weeks because the Dow kept bouncing up every time it dipped to 11,200? Those were the good old days. Oh, wait, that was early last month. Crap.
damn, don’s the man. nice little jam. is wood really that good?
I know this is a bit of old news but just found it to be very clear… and sobering… anyone have thoughts on the Lehman auctions Monday…. should make for an interesting day
http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/30/magazines/fortune/varchaver_derivatives_short.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008093012
Anyone catch Jimmy Rogers?
He says the safe havens will be the yen, swiss frank, commodities (he’s buying farm now and presumedly metals soon) and companies with good balance sheets and cash flow/liquidity. He says the global response via massive infusions of liquidity is stupid and cannot prevent the collapse and will only create hyper-inflation in a year or two. The only way to deal with this is to let the mismanaged businesses fail and for the surviving well managed companies to pick up the pieces.
Asia continues to get…. how would Fly put it…. gorilla raped
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=asia
Asia continues to get, how would Fly say it, Gorilla gangraped
Jake,
No worries. We’re out of the labyrinth on these cool wings made by my friend Daudelus. (Same designer what made this fucked up hedge! Irony, no?)
Just don’t tell Bowie.
In a bid for more credibility, Rodgers gave up the bow tie for a pink polo shirt.
This is the final sign of the apocalypse.
Worse yet, I agree with him.
I’m long FXY. But, unfortunately, it’s like 0.001% of my portfolio.
How do you think Monday will play out with the Lehman CDS auction… Could be THE day
http://news.yahoo.com/nphotos/Photo-Highlight-China-National-Day/ss/441/im:/081001/481/f36d75d93eec4a44b13b8c3546037235/;_ylt=Avk7XrP6HvYTvSWaiqlPU4mek3QF
So the European markets are crashing at the open. Who cares? Think about it. The reaction in the S&P futures is down 30. Down 30…whoopdee doo. If that’s as bad as it gets, the US market will rally tomorrow. There will be no crash in the US, we have obviously already crashed if the futures aren’t down more than that.
Thank you, Steph. With that thought and a handful of Ambien, I think I might get a few minutes sleep tonight.
But seriously, good point. Doubt the rally, tho.
Nite, nite.
Just looked up the timing on the Lehman CDS auction, the process starts at 9:45 and looks like the final numbers will be released at 2 pm tomorrow, but I’m sure info from the bid process will leak out. I assume that the losses from this will ripple out from the 13 or so primary insurers- I assume that at least some of them bought their own protection
All this market needs, seriously, is some goofy unexpected thing to turn. No kidding, if you had a press release tomorrow morning that said that Warren Buffett just bought 5% of something out of the ordinary like Google COMMON STOCK, this market no longer goes down.
$100,000 on the Jets to cover.
Who care about Europe or Asia? GE’s earnings will gangrape us all anyway.
And obviously that should be “who cares”. Would be nice if the ‘edit’ function got a bailout or some such.
I think Krull is taking this all rather well.
Futures moving up a little, still bad but not atrocious – man am I grabbing at straws and I’m 90 percent cash. Looks like Europe is coming off the bottom a touch
Futures now very bad … had to say that, I felt stupid after my last post.. can’t or don;t want to sleep . Ironically, last week I was looking at photos of a hosiery mill lost during the depression by one of my great greats
Hey Buckeye Bob, go get some sleep. you’ll feel better. Remember: 1) it’s only money. 2) the new economy currency is based on cans of tuna and sardines. 1 can = $1
Sorry Fly. Had to sleep. I’ll get back to Mr. Harrold in time.
It’s too late to sell.
And when (if?) this market finds a bottom, the fucker’s gonna be up like 20% in an hour.
So I’m just hanging on for dear life.
I wonder if Bush’s speech this morning will contain the phrase “Americans should go out and shop or go to Disneyland”.
If I were the Fed etc. during an election year and we had to take over or buy banks ETC. With no buyers in the market all I have to do is stop the PPT from buying stock.
Let the stock I need to buy go down as far as possible. Let some insiders with large cash and the PPT pump the market up like a rocket just in time for the election. So what else is new?
If UYG is a must own @ $11 what’s it at $7? Heh, silly Fly.
Hey, its not so bad…I see the sun is coming up.
Okay, I got my guns, ammo, monthly supply of water and food, and I’m thinking of starting a new religion, with me as the savior.
I’m ready to trade the Armageddon. However, once the Armageddon is over with, I look forward to a cold beer after the close.
Good luck today, everyone.
-DT
Buffett is down to 10 or 15 bill – that is what he needs for security – he has made all the deals for this year – he was early – too early.
DT,
LMFAO
Out of pure morbid curiosity, I will put some bids in – extremely wide – just to see if they are hit.
Last hour yesterday was almost comical how they hit the bids.
Chivas – keep that fucking rally monkey handy.
I tried to listen to the Jim Rogers clip, but I only get the first 3 seconds of it. After that it just says buffering… foreever.
I wonder if there will be some other bandwidth issues today with the potentially insane volume? My guess is yes.
@Anon: Maybe Buffett was not too early, but rather wanted to put a $10 billion portion of his balls on the line to try to play JP Morgan and help the country. Very noble–expensive, but noble.
What does one do on a day like this ?
Do you buy ? Everyday this week has looked like a great buying opportunity.
Do you sell ? If you sell now the fear is this could be the bottom. I suppose the bottom comes when the fear of losing more money is greater than the fear of missing out on a bottom. I think I have reached that point.
Take a look at this chart cause its probably where we are heading. The days of pre leverage.
Okay, I got my guns, ammo, monthly supply of water and food, and I’m thinking of starting a new religion, with me as the savior.
__________
Boy is Obama going to be pissed.
__
BTW — Funniest.
Krull.
Ever.
_____
Buffet was early, not noble. But you have to wonder, how could a guy like him not have imagined this total meltdown (we might have today)
Cap,
Markets over react on the high side and the low side. If it goes there, it may go lower.
I foresee a continued drop today until this PM when the shorts cover and the markets SOAR!
The fuckin’ idiots on CNBC are talking about
“PE ratios on forward earnings” and wondering if they are “12 or 18 or blah blah blah”
If these fuckers had a brain, they would know that at economic bottoms a couple of decades ago, the PE ratio on the DJI and S&P went to
INFINITY- as rthe earnings of rthe indexed stocks were NEGATIVE.
And thru those NEGATIVE PE’s, the markets ROSE!
Fuck Bailouts — and even good companies, with positive P/E’s went to mid-single digits…
This is not the final puke, no matter what. We could go all the way back to the highs (1500’s) on the S&P, but as the Cat in the Hat says, “That is not all! No, no, that is not all!”
_________
Let it all crash! I am going balls deep in equities. You think we’re screwed now? Wait until the Chinese land on the shores of California. Fuck the aliens!
RGLD fuckers!
_
LEH auction just went at 9.75 cents.
Krull=Adam Sandler hilarious
Ask and Ye Shall Receive
Receive… and fuck you