While it’s true, markets usually bottom after such severe beat downs; oddly enough, it’s not happening.
Energy stocks are getting mauled to death, as if their lines of credit have been cut off.
Hmmm.
The credit default swap market is 64 trillion big, larger than all the worlds economies combined, yet it remains entirely unregulated. That makes no sense. And, to make matters worse, only 10% of swap owners actually own the underlying notes.
Some economists say it’s all air. One big disaster waiting to happen.
Did you know a version of cds’s were banned back in 1909, due to the market makers inability to prove it wasn’t gaming?
Look, all I can tell you is the market is setting up for a “classic bottom,” during “non-classic times.”
Just know, I have put my buys on a scale, considering the knifing action. For National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] , I will buy a certain amount every 3 points. For [[UYG]] , I will buy a certain amount every point.
Finally, I am shocked to see Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] back down to these levels. Those idiots made a mammoth mistake by waiting to raise capital. The the stock was in the high 30’s, last week.
To sum things up, until this storm passes, I will hold a 50% cash position, 4% gold [[DGP]] , and begin to allocate the rest into egregious longs. I cannot justify selling short down at these levels.
These are trying times and “The Fly” is here to pawn them.
UPDATE: TED spreads have reversed and are easing here. Get long something, you pussies.
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I’m thinking gold stocks may be set up to explode … gold is up & their major variable cost – energy – is down huge. And the gold/xau ratio is at all time highs, fwiw
worth a shot with some lotto money
also TBT , a bet on eventually rising interest rates .. the final outcome of monster debtor nations
Minyanville Staff
10:56:19 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Vibes from Minyan Tony “Snoop” Dwyer of FTN Midwest
In an unprecedented move, the Global Central Banks cut short-term interest rates by 50 basis points.
The recent Global Central Bank’s actions are going to be judged on more than a few hours worth of trading. The key is changing the two current perceptions, which the move obviously didn’t do:
The global financial system is melting down.
The global economy is going into a severe slowdown.
We needed three things to change the above perceptions and lead to an intermediate-term low:
* Massive coordinated global rate cuts – 100 basis points would have been massive, 50 bps was insufficient.
* An RTC like entity to stabilize asset pricing – become less meaningful due to public debate and time lag.
* An extreme oversold condition using my trusty 14-week stochastic indicator. This one is almost there.
All three happened so far, but not to the degree that is needed to change investor’s “fear of being in” to “fear of being out.”
Fly
You re turning all socialist on us now? The 64 trillion is a gross figure dude. Buyers and sellers. The net position is much smaller.
What exactly is wrong with hedging anyway? One other thing people use those to price the markets perceived credit standing of a firm. The more accurate things can be priced the better it is.
So stop it with the socialist babble. You’ve made money and now you’re felling all expansive on us such as the super rich turning Dem on us like the Hypocrite from Omaha.
Enough of that shit.
SIX SIGMA…LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE LIE
Fly,
Would you think of purchasing some BAC at this time?
Fly- you’re probably tired of being complemented, but allow me to add – I’ve been following your blog since the “Fly on WallStreet” days – you’ve saved me a TON of cash. THANKS!
Would you please comment on the MVIS news today – what are our prospects for this stock going into 2009?
How bout those Uggly shoes? Just covered mine .. wth
Sir Fly,
If you get caught long this market again when it shitcans lower because you believe things like “oversold” are still relevant, you’ll never forgive yourself.
J, who says it’s socialist to have checks and balances?
http://sadguysontradingfloors.tumblr.com/
There’s 2 situations… one, a global sell of that is massive, momntum continues, panic feeds on itself and everything that is a stock goes to single digits or fractions of dollars.
2, the market rips higher at some point, and goes up 1000 in a day.
But in trying to capture that move, you might miss 3 consecutive days lower.
The overall move is down because long term we’re going down lower than these levels.
I don’t know, NOV is still a great pick if you are to go long…
But you know, it’s possible for people to think there methods will make a ton of money, and it has a very high success rate. An example might be betting it on red, and stedily increasing your bets. It works and you make a lot of money because you have such a high success rate… But over the course of time, you will run into a run where it goes “all black” 100 times in a row, if you spin the roulette rwheel long enough…
Similarly, in the market, oversold buying works, until there is that one massive once every 75-85 years crash, and the losses are so huge that it wipes out all gains, and just abotu every single undervalue company goes bust.
Livermore lost it all a few times.
I’m just saying, in these time and days, having a hedged position seems to make sense
Once you’ve gone black 100 times in a row, you never go back.
Dow Jones Industrial Average, October 7, 2008: Down 508 points.
Dow Jones Industrial Average, October 19, 1987: Down 508 points.
we can short on the way down, we have found shorting to be much more profitable.
get a robot trader, everyone rich is doing it.
NUE hangs in there……jeez
KSU is still a good short, even in these OS conditions.
“President Obama Says:
Once you’ve gone black 100 times in a row, you never go back.
”
LMAO
Enough already. Where’s my new polo sweater?
UYGEEEEEE
FCXXXXXXXXXX
SSOOOOOOY
Jerry Lewis Says:
UYGEEEEEE
FCXXXXXXXXXX
SSOOOOOOY
Miss Laaaaaaaaaa-deeeeeee,
Uyg! I think you just stepped on my GEN-tiles…
UYG to ZERO! We need to start the rebuild from the foundations, not the 3rd floor!
I, for one, am ready to welcome our alien overlords.
Whatever happened to the “I suck” trade?
LM downgraded by Moody’s today to A3.
Fly says it’s a 64 trillion credit default swap market. This guy says it’s 54 trillion. I say tomato you say tomahto.
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm
Spooky.
If it’s only $54 trillion, then what’s all the hubbub, bub?
anyone else think that we get below 9000 today???
Up, up, and awaayyyyyyyyyyyy!
DP, don’t jinx it please. 😉
JINX JINX JINX
Here we go with the bipolar shit again. 200 points up, 200 points down, in the matter of minutes. Care to feed it some lithium, anyone?
I think the last girlfriend may have left some of hers behind. I’ll look for it.
From the glass half full side – a 1% drop in the DOW is only a double-digit drop now. Not a bad day at all.
I bought a tiny amount of UYG calls. OCT 8s, so it is a total gamble.
A 3.79 Spread doesn’t make me horny!
I’ll be your cup of tea, TED.
http://digitalheadbutt.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/austin-powers.jpg
No shit, this whole market reminds me of my ex-fiance.
You shouldn’t talk about your sister like that Ozark Hillbilly.
I don’t know about anything else, but MON is up 10+%. We’re dining well tonight!
Heh-heh, Deepzy, as I has explicated to Donny, “hubris” is a four-letter word.
Someone is getting rich this week. For every seller getting out at a loss the opposite side of the trade is a buyer getting in at a much lower cost basis. The buyer is betting things won’t go much lower. Some are right some are wrong. Which are which? Not every stock deserved the punishment it took. The trick is to find the ones that just went down for the ride with no real fundamental weakness. Watch for those reaffirming guidance or declaring that the dividend will continue. Especially watch dividend announcements as people will be chasing dividends. If the fear is that Obama will raise capital gains tax then some will look to hide their money in dividend payers.
Bob Pasani sucks cock. What a fag.
You tell ’em, lardbill! That is just simple Economy 101!
Or at least I think it is. I was protecting our country music in the Texas Nat’l Gards that day (wink) and missed class.
I denominate you for Secretary of the Treasures under President Palin!
Unless Meg Whitman Sampler has already taken the job.
Now, how fast does you type?
Thanks, President Bush. Thank you for giving me some of your wiseytude. I feel smarter already. No longer “left behind”.
60 WPM last time I was tested (late 70’s).
this isn’t exactly the 1000 in a day snap back that some were expecting.
lol…typewriter?
Sellers finally done. $203 of upside to go.
Bitches.
Deepzy, you is welcome. Don’t let all of the smartification go to your head.
Lardbill, you is THIS close to a presidential pardon for the job, but you must have to be more pacific. Which is it, 60 or 70 mph?
While I has you here as a captivated audience, does you mind if I pull a “Texas Nat’l Gard Duty” and leave a little early on this here presidenting gig? If I’s hurry, I’s still has time to bring my special brand of leaderingship to the Commissary job of Major Leagues Baseballs.
Besides, everything here in this govermint job is purty much on autopilot, just like in my mission accomplishing days.
but is there any conviction here on the buyer’s part?
guess not
Fly, the correct verbiage is “pwn,” not “pawn.” As in, “these are trying times, and you are here to pwn them.”
A short message from the younger generation.
Now, continue on with your “pwniage” of the markets.
GG holding up, nicely.
About time.
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This is some pretty funny shit.
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