While it’s true, it appears we are doomed to repeat the asshattery of our Grandfathers. It’s also true, the stock market doesn’t have to go down another 50% this week.
We’re down 14% inside 5 days. I hate charts. I know they’re for morons. For example: how many of you bowling alley lovers got flamed going long when the Vix hit 45 again? But, how much lower would you grave diggers like the market to go?
I guess the decision at hand is: will the financial system melt down, right now? Not in 1 month or 1 year. Right now. That is exactly what the market is telling us.
However, things are being muddied by hedge funds folding, mutual funds tax loss selling and people panicking to blow out of their bullshit 401k plans, because of the mass hysteria in the media. Call me a mentally ill gorilla gone apeshit if you must, but I like to buy when blood is in the streets.
If you have heavy losses, I suggest selling everything and starting new. Nothing clears the mind more than having a clean slate. It will empower you to make smart decisions, instead of worrying about the same garbagio that has been punching you in the scrotum for the past year.
If that means selling Bank of America Corporation [[BAC]] down at these levels, so be it. The name of this game, as always, is still stay in it. Because once you are out, it’s very hard to get back in.
NOTE: Bill Miller from Legg Mason, Inc. [[LM]] is still the worst investor on the globe.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
lol. I’m in awe of your post title.
cue The Zombie.
Ah, hell, I’ll do it myself. The Fly is God.
Eggsactly.
I like me some Jay Pam tomorry too.
And gold, lots of rich chocolatey buttery gold.
Mmmmmmm… smack! smack! Deeeeeeeelicious!
__________
The market is most likely at an intermediate low, give or take a few % points. That’s how you have to bet, risk reward wise. Great post Fly.
Bullish? No. Tradable bottom, +/-, Yes.
Noted Fly…I’ll blow out this dog stock MVIS first thing in the morning
Fly,
We FLY (get it?) tomorrow……
And once again…..we behold the FLY gain more surplus wealth….bastard!
Anyone have an inkling how much of this selling is due to the hedge fundies getting plastered out of the water?
most excellenr. bll miller is a bull mkt babbon.
Todd Harrison
03:22:33 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Of Juggles and Struggles
Seventeen years and I still haven’t gotten used to the notion of stepping away from the screens in the midst of a trading day. These are no ordinary days, mind you, but the vacation adage comes to mind. You know that one–it’s when you feel you can’t take a vacation when you need it most. Yes, our crosstown (kick arse) meld validated what I suspected. The sun was shining. People are breathing. Life goes on.
Some top-line vibes as we punch some doggies on the heels of the Hump:
* There is no denying there is massive risk to the market. That’s why you only trade with what you can afford to lose. For my part, the long-term bucket of my book remains 100% cash and my bull costume effort is with my trading chips.
* The real test will come at 3:30 when redemption notices hit and forced selling percolates. That, by definition, is unnameable so the onus is on us to see all sides as we find our way.
* There’s an old adage on (the industry formerly known as) Wall Street that the only thing worse than losing money is underperformance. Keep in mind that IF (huge, monster if) Hoofy can find some footing, performance anxiety could percolate. Just putting it out there through that “see all sides” lens.
* Walking to this meeting with Charlie and Kevin, I turned to them and said “There really is no legitimate reason for the market to rally. In some backwards way, that could be precisely why it rallies. The market is forward looking and validation tends to post rationalize.”
Fly-
Good post. I am SO f*cking tired of reading all the “sky is falling” BS on every thread. Yes, we ARE f*cked, but DOW 1000. Give me a break. It WILL NOT HAPPEN.
I agree with buying when blood is in the streets, but do we have to wait until the blood is knee deep? I have done very well this year to the short side. No where near your 60%, but 24% YTD is good for me. Having said that, I no longer “enjoy” the downside even when positioned correctly. The reason is simple- MANY hard working people are taking losses that they will never recover from…ever. I find that incredibly sad. I know there are those on these boards that revel in old ladies living in gutters, penniless, but I am not one of them.
I hope we head higher, although I don’t see a catalyst. Thanks, BTW, for answering my UYG question. It will be hard for me to sink more cash into that dog, but I might have to do it. I thought $13 was a steal, but after having it use my balls as a speed bag I now know I was wrong. Good luck and thanks for posting your ideas….
Down six days in a row and tomorrow is October 9th, which has historically been a key day for the market. Not only did we top out last year on that very same day, but back on October 9th also marked the bear market low back in 2000.
So October 9th seems to be symbolic…until it’s not….
With the short sell ban expiring tonight, I’m sure that alone kept many sidelined as there’s a fair amount of uncertainty to what we will see as a result. In addition, Yom Kippur. If we see a big rally tomorrow, that will go a long way to confirm the “Sell Roshashana, Buy Yom Kippur” trade.
Sorry Juice…my post went as as your own…weird
Expect the unexpected.
to confirm the “Sell Roshashana, Buy Yom Kippur” trade.
I’ve been waiting years for someone to validate that strategy, thanks for your work.
Where’s Wood?
That man has done lost his mind talking about we need several more down 800 days.
ROFL.
That’s like marshall law fucked.
Please ignore that I said that Jeff.
” bowling alley lovers” Classic. As the saying goes on a bad day, ” I don’t know whether to shoot myself or go bowling”.
I am ready for the Great Depression. I applied for a job with The New WPA. The mission is to go into closed Starbucks and redo them into government owned mini discos.
Great post Fly.
ummmm …. martial law…
Here’s a question:
Where will the Dow be in 12 and 24 months?
That’s assuming Obambi doesn’t do anything to fuck things up.
This market is sold out. The mother of all rallies is coming. Oh the irony, i can barely stand it.
Obama should’ve plunged his fist into McCain’s chest last night…
…pulled out his thumping heart…
…eaten it with a nice Chianti in front of millions of horrified TV viewers…
But I digress !!!
…but then…he basically did just that …
Blood in the streets? This may just be a little nose bleed for whats to come in the next few months.80% cash for now.Fly, I followed your lead and bought NOV in the 28’s this morning.Looking to buy more.
Even I’m all in tomorrow.
Ultimate Costaza
No great depression will occur. Hoover screwed that pooch in ’29 by tightening into the fall, coupled with a static money supply pegged to gold. Roosevelt then devalued the dollar from $25/oz AU to $35, expanding money supply. The present day cheese makers will (and already have begun to) inflate us enough to forego that calamity, thanks to Tricky Dick busting the gold standard completely in that 70’s show. I think our end game today involves a dollar bust of some kind. Maybe not to 0, but 30%, 50%–who knows? We’ve come part way already.
Prepare to become Japan for the next 10 years. Banzai, bitches.
Get your arms punched off today? There is hope.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GATCiaeuK0E
You know, if the market rallys tomorrow, that would make almost everyone on this website right.
Think about it.
I hate charts…. I can understand that when you don’t know how to read them or use them then I guess that must be tough…..
Woodshedder is right 500-1000 point drop on the Dow tomorrow. This week is exactly like the build up to Black Monday in 1987. The chart is eerily similar. Dow had dropped from 2600+ to 2200 in 9 trading sessions and people were calling it a great buy. And then BAAAAAMMMMMMM Black Monday 2200 down to 1616.
Enjoy …
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&st=1987-06-08&en=1987-12-01&id=p53401581512
Howard: WTF? You run a halfway decent third-tier blog and you don’t use a spell check?
J: He can’t possibly make things any worse than W has.
Hang on, Mom is calling me for supper. I’ll be right back.
An acquaintance in Birmingham, AL is a wealth mgmt guy for Wachovia. He told me eight AL Wachovia clients have committed suicide in recent days, none his clients. Very strange days indeed.
Boomer,
Were they in danger of losing their homes or were they losing their asses in the market ?
The equity market is just a warm up band to the main show Credit market in this complete meltdown…Capitulation? WTF!!…People’s fixed income portfolios (i.e. people like your grandma) are getting obliverated!…Get it? Poof!!…Funds that were trading at $10.00 are now at $5.50…Preferred stocks? Not preferred anymore!…Corporate bond trading? Only by appointment…Its absolute carnage, but you wouldn’t know it here.
Cap – I don’t know. He was more in a sad space and I didn;t want to pry. I just listened.
IBM just preannounced earnings, which beat, and reaffirmed guidance. Just the kind of news which may provide a nice speed bump to spur some buying tomorrow. Bought some SSO right before the close and I’m liking that decision right now.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aZ0t7RM0g2YI&refer=news
What the government needs to do here is hand out $2000 to every American family in the form of a ‘gift card’ that can only be used to buy consumer goods and services at the following –
AAPL WMT COST TGT M JWN BBY DDS KR ANF CAKE BWLD CMG MCD YUM SBUX ( feel free to add your own)
That should help jump start the economy no ? Probably be good for a few thousand Dow points.
A $2000 gift card that excludes hookers and blow? What kind of commie shit is that all about?
When Lord Rothschild said “blood in the streets,” he meant it quite literally. We are seeing a little of that with dudes throwing themselves in front of trains and people shooting each other over which candidate’s t-shirt should be worn. I’m truly sorry to hear about the financially induced suicides; we should not forget our humanity. But IMO this crazy shit is still ramping up. Not to say we aren’t possible forming an intermediate bottom, but this is not the end of the show either.
From a retail standpoint, I am only just this week starting to see lots of investors freaking out. The public selling is far from complete.
Treepart,
You can give the hooker your ‘gift card’ in exchange for ‘services’ rendered.
I have listened to Dr. Faber on Bloomberg. He says that the governments/central banks are changing the rules which makes it harder to know what to do – he guarantees that these bubbles will not reflate any time soon. He says that the root cause of the financial woes is the excessive leverage in the system which was aided by the too low too long interest rates. He said diversify – he said inflation could come in the future – he still believes in a year end rally in equities and commodities. Making money appears to be timing and selection – both tough games, no? Except for “The Fly”.
The selling is mutual funds and hedge funds – equity mutual funds have been draining all year. Me? I am just a piker daytrading these bear ETFs – sold SKF under $140 in the last hour before it tore upward, but I did not want to hold it overnite.
But, how much lower would you grave diggers like the market to go?
I plan to buy in stages. stage 1: 50% down. stage 2: 75% down. stage 3: 90% down.
Go ahead and laugh asshats. C U in hell.
The $15 Trillion Obama hedge fund (funded by Soros and Buffet) will continue to lean against this market and flush this bitch down the toilet, until the election is over. Then he’ll introduce “Phuck Wall Street” legislation. Every Phucker on Wall Street will get the shake down to pay for $101,234 per family tax rebates for middle class Americans.
fyi…the QQQQs…after today…have seen 9 consecutive LOWER HIGHS !
…the IWM (the Russell 2000 ETF) …has seen 9 consecutive LOWER HIGHS !
…and get this…
…the MVV (the Mid Cap 400 Ultra Long ETF) …has seen 13 consecutive LOWER HIGHS !!!
Now…that’s just freaken ridiculous !!!
“Hair On Fire” rally…upcoming !!!
Git yer popcorn ready !!!
I think this is a bad week. As much as I would LOVE to see this “rally” you guys are all talking about I dont see it happening *this week* the confidence just isnt there. Possibly a small rally Friday and carried on Monday.
Just like everyone els i *KNOW* the market will turn (no shit?) Its just a matter of when.
Yeah Wood, everyone on this blog is bullish as shit.
(rolling my eyes)
____
All lies. There are no bulls left. We killed them all. The market will go straight to zero. I swear on this.
At the airport?
Bulls at the airport?
There is no truth to this, by the Prophet I know it.
The Bears, they have beaten them with their shoes, and then eaten them with chamomile tea.
____
Great…restoring shorts tomorrow (maybe) but now this from WSJ
U.S. Treasury is considering ways to inject capital directly into banks, possibly by taking equity stakes.
Now SKF will really be screwed up – how do you short the Federal govt
We live in crazy times, when this settles down and it will, we will all be bored to death … remember the good old days of whisper numbers and quarter point rate cuts
asia seems to be having a banner day so far. about as good as they get after you’ve been given a solid corn holing with sandpaper for lube.
Greetings fellow comrades,
So sorry to hear great misfortune that fall upon stock market bulls. But this is great news for Politburo of USSA under guidance of Commissar Paulson. He is most brilliant man. Under his leadership and creation of Perestroika, we impose ban on shorting to restrict competition. That way only your Politburo can borrow shares to short. US market lose $2 trillion over last month. Your Politburo is richer by $2 trillion. Just consider your loss as special contribution towards fund for Supreme Socialization of USSA.
Thanking you very much for patience and understanding
Sincerely
Vladimir W. Bush
Secretary General USSA
Jake,
In the past you have had the courtesy of walking three steps before rolling your eyes, which is both mannerly and an hilarious set up.
But Mr. Shedder has been right much, much, much more than I have lately, so I am not rolling my eyes at all. Besides, they are swollen shut after UYG punched my eyebrows off today. (Plus my limit order at $10.75 didn’t fill for some ETarded reason, just to add insult to eyebrow injury.)
But as I scan Bloomberg teevee tonight, things seem to be a little more positive right now among our friends in foreign lands, so tomorrow holds some hope.
Looking to get long DGP at the open, even tho Don Luskin just declared “gold goes to $2,000/oz. in the next six months. He’ll say and do anything just to get Larry Kudlow to ask him to the prom.
Good luck to all tomorrow.
Almost all, anyway.
Anton,
Is that hope I smell ? Markets don’t bottom with hope. They bottom with despair, fear and gut wrenching sickness.
My game plan if this market continues dropping. Buy UYG October calls early next perhaps $15 calls. Stick 10% of portfolio into those calls. I suspect some Opex fuckery will occur sending UYG 100% higher and a 500% gain on those calls. If I lose. Its just money. If you tried a similar play in July you would have made enough money to quit for the year. I was heavily long UYG (not the calls) and was up overall some 20% in 2 trading days.
cap, the problem with your comparison to 1987
is that in 1987, in the five months preceding the 9-10 day bad stretch, the market had been UP
over 10%, while this time it was DOWN 20%
before the current period. MUCH OF THE DAMAGE WAS ALREADY DONE before the Bailout Blues.
We will NOT have a Black Monday. BET ME!
New MacBook Pro “Project brick” leaked. Looks legit. Manuf with a solid piece of aluminum, cnc/water cutter, lighter, stronger, cheaper. Oct 17 is official announcement. Vavavavoom!
http://9to5mac.com/macbook-brick-spyshot
And something completely cool:
http://www.uncrate.com/men/cars/motorcycles/confederate-limitededition-fighter-motorcycle/
Dear Lord FLY,
Why is USD rising? Because the rest of the world economies are screwed so they will cut rates and hence USD rises?
Or The rest of the world economies are supporting USD to save their export????
Or the easing of commodity eased the negative pressure on USD?
But they r printing dollar right now!!!!!
Boomer, how did that bullshit get leaked?
Cancer Scarecrow Steve, lookig to shake things up?
______
Boom, was that a can opener you can take to work?
Or a movie projector?
_
Project Brick has been circulating. The photo is from a chinese site. Back in the day Steve built a factory for an early Mac supercomputer. Rumor is they have a new state o art facility.
If tru, aapl will not be constrained to typical shapes, prototype timing. etc. concept to proto to the line in days. custom runs. one offs. etc.
i interviewed at crispin porter a while ago, and they had a 3d rendering device for prototypes. like for the vw “fast” thing. they did it in foam for ideation
mac might just have the real deal set up.
better margins, vertical integration, JIT inventory, the whole shizz.
big announcement pending oct 17 i think.
I just saw an ad on Conan for a new ipod touch with game functionality. Is that new?
http://www.apple.com/ipodtouch/
more macbook pics leaked just now:
http://www.macrumors.com/2008/10/08/more-brick-macbook-case-images/
I don’t quite get how manufacturing the new macbook cases out of 1 solid piece of aluminum is in any way advantageous in terms of cost, materials, time.
Also, the case is still only part of the equation. You still have to have the processor, motherboard, components, etc.
I don’t see what the big deal is…
I have similar questions. SHould be an interesting reveal.
Rumors also say the macbook pro will have a touchscreen trackpad. we’ll see.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSN0640944820081006
This auction settlement of the value of FNMA and Freddie Mac senior and subordinated debt is probably under-reported good news held over from yesterday:
GSE Auction Price Close to Par
By Ed Zwirn, Regulation Correspondent
The credit derivatives markets have settled their largest default event yet, with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac credit default swaps fetching prices close to par at auction.
The auction, held Monday by derivatives processors Markit and Creditex, used protocol devised by the International Swaps and Derivatives Association to determine prices for CDS referencing securities of the two government-sponsored enterprises, which were placed under conservatorship by the U.S. government on Sept. 7.
Final prices for the derivatives ranged from 99.9 percent for contracts referencing Fannie Mae subordinated bonds to 91.51 percent for Fannie seniors. Freddie Mac subordinated debt obligations were pegged at 98 percent, with Freddie seniors going for 94 percent.
This price–called the recovery value–will in turn determine the payouts that have to be made by insurers and banks that offered credit cover on the mortgage financiers in recent months.
Here is the Sept 30 ISDA press release with background on the auction itself. The Oct 6 “Mission Accomplished” ISDA press release is here, with a link to settlement prices and more ISDA material here.
Now, this is good news if we can infer that FNMA and Freddie bonds were worth more than people might have expected, since it suggests that the underlying mortgages are maybe not as bad as we think. But I need some time to digest this and I am relying on some cogent commenters to do the heavy lifting here.
i found this here:
http://justoneminute.typepad.com/main/2008/10/we-troll-for-go.html
I just got off the phone with the top tier of the Jewish community. They told me that Jews from all over the country are going to buy this market and make this bitch go up tomorrow. I asked the Rabi why, and he said becasue it on sale and we want to get a good deal.
Shalom bitches
We’re talking about a 1 QUADRILLION derivative market unraveling, all debt being blown out, socialism and comunism, corruption and greed, everything that’s always gone on is being exposed and is in the open for everyone to see, oil being shreded down to nothing, why? because the market is forward looking, and businesses not only won’t grow, but they’ll flat out go bankrupt in domino fashion, and the fed handing out blank checks, the comunismization of america, and GLOBALLY EVERYONE has borrowed so much, for so long, that in order to pay off everyone we’ll have to double the worlds wealth 3 or 4 times to pay everything off. People are trading in futures for goods that don’t even exist and can never exist. Try to collect on oil that isn’t there, gold hat doesn’t exist… Everyone try all at once…. This is absolue madness, the prices of these derivatives. Divide that in half, and the losers of the trade simply will NEVER have enough to pay the winners. There’s a shortage, and it’s going to effect every person on the planet. There’s going to be hundreds of option ARMs defaulting every single day by 2011… the market hasn’t priced that in. The market hasn’t priced in how bad earnings are going to be, and things aren’t nearly as cheap as anyone thinks. The US which the entire world is running based off of is going to collapse. 10 trillion in debt, and 50 trillion in unpaid promises, and obama coming to bring change by adding another 10 trillion in social programs. And Bernake forced to either cut until other countries give up on the dollar, or until credit drys up and american businesses evaporate. Look, the days of getting loans is DONE. We will have so many restrictions, to protect ourselves from anything happening again, that the bankers will give up…
Heck, we may even move to “the amero”, or a digital currency, and all loans must be done through the fed and/or the government, who will screw everything up .
Everyone will gradually wake up to many of these things, one by one, and probably a million other things I left out.
If we’re falling down before the drop, that mens there’s more momentum and the drop should be one BIG drop on HUGE EPIC volume… we’ve seen nothing but chicken shit volume. Look at a bank stock like FITB after it’s major drop to hit it’s bottom (for now).
That’s the type of decline we need to see with that type of volume, and with a large VIX SPIKE (not a vix climb, a SPIKE)) before we hit bottom.
But have fun on your “bear trap” and buying that bear flag right before you see what a major down move is.
All the central bankers are gonna lynch the black swan tommorrow, with rumors of equity stakes (another form of increasing budget deficit=inflation expectations (in the future)) Tommorrow may be a good time to close all short oil,gold,growth stocks.
I see a temporary stop of downward selling for GBP,EUR,AUD,NZD however, bear in mind, they will eventually come down when the next yen carry trade deleveraging occurs. This may be a week, or months away. Allow time to consolidate and we will see where we go from there.
My friends, its these cronies on ibankcoin that have been stealing taxpayers’ money. -McCain, the boom boom bust.
Let my record speak for itself. -Obama, the “that one”.
-I like that tax cut policy for Obama, because it will help the lower middle class help with their spending habits and won’t hinder the appreciation of USD if it occurs (long term).
Obama, Obama…. I’m practicing because when this comunist/socialist movement comes, I dont want to get shot by the Nazi… I mean, federal police.
anyone know what a fetus tastes like, I think I’m going to start practicing my fetus eating ritual, Illuminati style.
Don’t wait to buy gold, buy gold and wait!
Sad news from OEW:
“With todays drop below DOW 9438 and SPX 986, the DOW has now retraced 71% of the 2002 – 2007 bull market. This has exceeded the 68% threshold level we noted yesterday morning. Historically, when this has occurred a full retracement of the bull market, with some overshoot, is likely before the bear market ends. Therefore, we need to give the DOW alternate count a higher probability at this time. Currently we are maintaining the count we’ve had all along, and are still expecting a Primary wave A bottom. The next important support pivots are at SPX 961 and then 912. There is also a significant fibonacci cluster in the 920’s for the entire bear market thus far.”
“After a short term wave 4 rally, wave 5 of this downtrend could fit into a fibonacci relationship as well.
If the pivots at SPX 961 and 912 fail to hold, we could be looking at a much steeper decline for this bear market. Since 1921 there have been only two times that a multi-year bull market was fully retraced. The 1921-1929 bull market during 1929-1932, and the 1970-1973 bull market during 1973-1974. In both cases there was some overshoot on the downside. The worse case was 1974 when the bear market dropped more than the entire bull market by 13%. This would suggest that the DOW could hit 6350 before this bear market ends.
One last note. During the 1921-1929 bull market, the DOW moved from a low of 63.90 to a high of 381.17. This was a sixfold increase! The depressionary bear market of 1929-1932 retraced that entire bull market and overshot by 7% to the downside before ending at 41.22. That major bear market simply wiped out the 1921-1929 bull market and not much more. Our recent bull market rose from 7197.49 to 14198.10, this is intraday data. The speculative excesses were not in stock prices, but were in the credit markets. Worldwide, some the emerging markets that had sixfold or better increases, will likely drop 80%-90% of their value. This is certainly not expected to occurr in the DOW or the FTSE.”
Europe calmly & easily in the green; futures up 200. Too good to be true?
“Now, this is good news if we can infer that FNMA and Freddie bonds were worth more than people might have expected, since it suggests that the underlying mortgages are maybe not as bad as we think.
______
I smell a whiff of the stink of moral hazard: The auctions may be going so well because the buyers know that their purchases are now backed by the government.
“Final prices for the derivatives ranged from 99.9 percent for contracts referencing Fannie Mae subordinated bonds to 91.51 percent for Fannie seniors. Freddie Mac subordinated debt obligations were pegged at 98 percent, with Freddie seniors going for 94 percent.”
How the hell do subordinated bonds go for a higher premium than seniors? Either I’m dumb (possible) or something is bjorked in that…
I’m beginning to think that the FLY and his nemisis, Dope on a Slope have two tin cans with a string. What has the trading world come to when these two agree, not once, but for several weeks?
TED spread at 4.11
Fear and constipation continue to rule the credit markets.
The Fly speaks the truth about clearing the slate. Time to simplify.
I am executing small pre-market buys… X and AA, for a trade.
Spread is rising… 4.13… anyone who wants to fuck this wide pussy, BE CAREFUL and WEAR PROTECTION!
The FLY plays his flute and the suckers fallow him into the fire. The only problem is the Fly will come out alive.
Dr. Marc Faber says there is only one bubble in the world remaining – US Treasuries.
Caddy,
What do you think of INTC as a long term play down at these levels?
thats right anon… thats why I recommend buying TBT … power move yesterday
Jeffrey Cooper
08:30:20 AM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
A Set Up Exists Here To Rally.
The psychology from where I sit is such that with upspikes being able to be shorted with impunity after yet another failure of an upspike yesterday morning, that the first time the market comes back after pulling back and fizzling out from a Roman Candle, we could see a panic and a stampede in the other direction. That would be up in case we’ve all forgotten. Yes north still remains on the map last time I looked.
If another up fuse fizzles (such as this morning) and the market lights up again, Boo may run for the hills as he realizes a Roman Candle of an option expiration howitzer is pointed at him.
However, as Rick Santelli brilliantly put it this morning, it’s good to be early based on chart tea leaves but we have to move slowly as, “there are many ships on the bottom of the ocean and they all had chart rooms.”
Do I think there is a better than average likelihood that the market has a date with destiny with the 2002 lows? Yes. Do I know when that will be? No. Do I think it could occur this November or even by the end of October? Possibly. Do I think the market can stage an intervening rally? Well I would be uncomfortable about being short right here, right now. The answer is I would not be surprised to see a backtest toward S&P 1170—- quickly but as of yet the market has done very little to prove that it is in the cards. And we are still not dealing with a house of cards.
DJ30 is well below Fibonacci 62% Retracement. Next Support at 7500.
kidstock- As a daytrading fool I would have to say that your opinion on INTC is as good as mine, if not better. I really don’t have a clue except I would say that if we are in for slow growth over the next few years and the fact that there still exists an oversupply of chips then I would say on a fundamental basis INTC would be a lagger. The positive is that it dominates as AMD is a dead duck.
I basically just trade SMH probably 2 or 3 times a day as I can usually get a good read on it.
Now, this is good news if we can infer that FNMA and Freddie bonds were worth more than people might have expected, since it suggests that the underlying mortgages are maybe not as bad as we think. But I need some time to digest this and I am relying on some cogent commenters to do the heavy lifting here.
_____________
All I infer is that Fred and Fan are backed by the US gummint.
Hooya.
_______
I asked the Rabi (sic) why, and he said because it on sale and we want to get a good deal.
Be careful about spelling Jewish terms properly, lest someone think you an anti-semitic motherfucker.
Shalom yourself.
isn’t it “sematic”?
no, it’s semiautomatic
se·mat·ic (s-mtk)
adj.
Serving as a warning or signal of danger. Used especially of the coloring of some poisonous animals.
–
In linguistics and ethnology, Semitic (from the Biblical “Shem”, Hebrew: ??, translated as “name”, Arabic: ?????) was first used to refer to a language family of largely Middle Eastern origin, now called the Semitic languages. This family includes the ancient and modern forms of Akkadian, Amharic, Arabic, Aramaic, Ge’ez, Hebrew, Maltese, Phoenician, Tigre and Tigrinya among others.
As language studies are interwoven with cultural studies, the term also came to describe the extended cultures and ethnicities, as well as the history of these varied peoples as associated by close geographic and linguistic distribution. The late 19th century term “anti-Semitism” refers incorrectly to hostility toward Jews specifically, further complicating the understood meaning and boundaries of the term.
LIBOR and TED spread actually went up overnight. Are these the new wall of worry for the market to climb or is it still carbon monoxide for the equity markets and U.S. economy?
NCC getting bought out? Who’s the lucky fucker who bought those preferreds?
Besides my friend here in town (a broker, the fucker).
_____
If the Italians can fuck up, so can we.
Wow, the shorts are gonna get the ban reinstated, one day after having it lifted. lol….
Here we go again, lets manipulate the fucking futures. Thats fucking it, I am going on a fucking cussing rampage next door today. Hopefully I can get some good video of me cussing out fucking Larry “Leisure Suit” Levine. While I am at it I may just fucking punch that grizzly fucking looking retard at the merc too, you know who I am talking about. Its a nice day outside and I don’t mind shitting on the front door.
Do it GAp!!
So far the SPY is holding the upward trendline from yesterdays low. It may continue to climb but volume is pretty weak. I wouldn’t be surprised if it busted through or drifted along to the highs made yesterday. Nothing is really surprising anymore.
Sorry, this is on the 5min chart.
After getting a vise grip clamped on my ballsack with that last ban, I didn’t trust that repeal for one second. Whores.
Iceholes.
Sonamum biatch.
__________
(When will I get my video posting back so I can post “Johnny Dangerously” clips, as appropriate?)
___________
Jesus Christ, my Dad just moved his entire life’s savings, (and my inheritance) back into the markets…all in…
Fuck me. I hope I’m fucking wrong.
So much for that trendline.
seems like the longer-term trendline is continuing, ie., fucking downward.
Well Shed, at least you’re somewhat hedged by staying out. Who knows, maybe he’s buying fear and your inheritance is about to get a lot bigger.
UYG headed to zero. Seriously. SIngle digits any minute now.
GM trading at options prices now.
Shed,
I hope you sent him your excellent post from last night.
And as my Vietnamese comrades like to say:
didi mao! didi mao!
—
The Sheltering Beard is now open for a very short time.
Oh the fucking irony.
Just switched my Rydex IRA into 2X NASDAQ 100 for 10:45 price. So please crash this pig about that time. Thank you.
We are crashing I guarantee it. Nobody wants to own stocks.
Tomorrow Black Friday followed by Black Monday.
Fly maybe this is the melt down. Maybe we do end down 20% on the week. What else will get us higher. Everything single thing is bad.
I will set foot when you least expect it.
The market has been in a serious down slide ever since Leave It To Beaver was taken out of it’s 11 AM time slot.
Coincidence?
I think not.
hm… maybe my having bought UYG calls here was not the best idea.
Eddie Haskell is liquidating his fund.
If it makes you feel any better, Shed, I just discovered my mom’s broker had laced her portfolio with preferreds of winners like AIG, LEH, BSC…
I think it’s time to take the gamblers method.
Pick a supersized 2.5X leveraged fund, and load it on up.
DXMLX DireXion Mid Cap Bull 2.5X Fund
NASDAQ Mutual Fund
DXQSX Direxion NASDAQ-100 Bear 2.5x Fund
NASDAQ Mutual Fund
DXQLX DireXion NASDAQ-100 Bull 2.5X Fund
DXSSX DireXion S&P 500 Bear 2.5X Fund
NASDAQ Mutual Fund
DXSLX DireXion S&P 500 Bull 2.5X Fund
NASDAQ Mutual Fund
DXRSX DireXion Small Cap Bear 2.5X Fund
NASDAQ Mutual Fund
DXRLX DireXion Small Cap Bull 2.5X Fund
DXTLX DireXion Total Market Bull 2.5X Fund
NASDAQ
DXDDX Direxion Dollar Bear 2.5x Fund
NASDAQ Mutual Fund
DXDBX Direxion Dollar Bull 2.5x Fund
I use Rydex 2X funds for my IRA. They let you get in or out at a 10:45 price and then at the 4:00 price. No limits.
If it makes you feel any better, Shed, I just discovered my mom’s broker had laced her portfolio with preferreds of winners like AIG, LEH, BSC…
Which is exactly why I took my Mom’s portfolio out of her asshat “American Funds and sit” broker’s hands last October.
Lazy fucktard.
_______
CNBC just now keying in on Lehman CDS settlement.
It’s time to buy the corporate debt pounded down by AIG forced selling for the Lehman CDS settlement tomorrow.
HIX, HIO, HYT … closed-end debt, selling 30% discount to NAV. Yielding 15 – 18%.