iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,419 Blog Posts

C R U S H E D

I must admit, I did not see that coming. What was that, 300 points down in 15 minutes? People are just getting banged out, via egregious margin clerks.

Maybe the world is ending after all?

Brutal.

I ended up losing some coin in [[UYG]] , but did alright in The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , [[DIG]] , National-Oilwell Varco, Inc. [[NOV]] and Apple Inc. [[AAPL]] .

The only thing left to do is chase the rabbit down the hole, if needed.

Thank God for ample cash supplies.

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103 comments

  1. Erin Burnett's Booty Call
    Erin Burnett's Booty Call

    Here’s the deal: if I follow you (actually, it was merely a coincidence that I bought a bit today before I looked at this site) you will get burned.

    My luck has been horrible. I’m going to have to go all Costanza opposite on this market in order to make a fucking cent.

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  2. Hammer

    Geesh…that’s the last time I let someone walk into my office and distract me from the screen.

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  3. Romio

    Im glad to see it close @ the lows, did not happen yesterday with the sucker rally 2nd part of the day. We need a real short/mid term bottom and we, i believe, is very near ladies.

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  4. Fly in the Ointment
    Fly in the Ointment

    Anybody got any thoughts on SIRI. Their pps move down has been brutal, and with tight credit they seem to be in danger of going kaput.

    Comments?

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  5. bailout lover

    Anyone who took more than a short term view had all the spare change picked from their pocket and wire transferred to a trader’s account.

    A suggestion in 3 words: Get over oversold.

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  6. alphadawgg

    I sold a portion of my inverse ETFs earlier this morning. Shit.

    Off to gamblers anonymous meeting.

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  7. The Game is Rigged
    The Game is Rigged

    Ouch my ass hurts. That was very uncool.

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  8. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Note to Hank Paulson: SHUT THE FUCK UP FOR ONCE AND EAT A CANOLI!

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  9. sniper6

    SIRI going to zero. I oughta know, been holding a small piece since $4.00

    I thought maybe they’d get involved in satellite phones, another area I took a minor debanking in, but that shit ain’t happened yet.

    Daaaammmmmnnn!

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  10. The Fox

    Fly-

    In UYG at $13.00. Bail or add? Thanks!!!

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  11. CAP

    Get ready for Black Friday and Black Monday. The chances we crash are 100% now. Its guaranteed. Nothing can save us. Nothing.

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  12. sniper6

    Plus, Mel Karmazin is sporting a fake-ass Angelo tan, you know that’s a bad sign.

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  13. The Game is Rigged
    The Game is Rigged

    Superman could save us.

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  14. The Fly

    UYG has to be bought sub 11.

    Ridiculous.

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  15. bailout lover

    Fly,

    How about adding a little clAss to the Asshat awards this week by going international?

    There are some great candidates as world markets collapse like subcode construction in a hurricane.

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  16. Hobo Joe

    Yep, Nobody wants worthless pieces of paper, they call stocks. Wonder what other pieces of paper are next. Maybe we can get that Hyperinflation MEME Going.

    Be careful what we wish for. It’s 1929, Housing is only half way corrected. There will be no Christmas, People are pulling their retirement funds….. and going to bury gold in the back yard. All the banks are going to Zero.

    We have created the myth, now we have to live with it. Fortunately it’s the information age and we can do it in a few months

    We have scared the civilians away, Many of them have cashed out, and they have turned their contributions to Zero. There is a depression coming, and they have to prepare. The Shell game is over folks, this was all a confidence game and it’s over. Why would anyone want to get involved in this nonsense. Where is that 60% correction? We need to price it all in. Dow 6K and the collapse of the banking system. just like the MEME.

    No reason to get involved till then. Vix has yet another record close.

    Long Soup, Guns, Butter.

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  17. Oklahoma Uncle

    I would buy equities here but I don’t want any NYC f@ckers to get my $. Besides, small infestors are a running joke. Wall Street can get all they need from SWFs and the gubmint. Got tp?

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  18. surfdude

    Would someone get these clown off my ass? I was clownfucked today. Ouch!

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  19. The Fox

    CAP-

    Quit smoking crack. You are starting to sound like Cramer and that ain’t good.

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  20. richard

    Fly:

    Ridiculous is not even the word to make up what I feel today.

    I have never felt so cheated. Run down the rabbit hole, tomorrow?

    Oh boy………….

    richard

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  21. Ichabod

    Hey Fly, how far down the rabbit hole will you chase those stocks? Do you have some sort of stop loss in mind, or will you chase down then lighten up on a bounce? Just curious what The Fly has planned.

    That close was beyond queer.

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  22. Dinosaur Trader

    DT wins again!

    -DT

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  23. CAP

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression

    Read up on that guys cos that’s where we’re headed.

    The Fox,

    I wish I could sound different but unfortunately when the market wants to do nothing but go down, a crash is all but guaranteed. Nothing the government or Fed can do will help the markets. You can;t stick a gun to peoples heads and ask them to buy stocks. Even guys like Buffett are hoarding cash when not being a loan shark ( in the case of his ‘investments’ in GS and GE). We don’t have short sellers as a floor to how far down prices can go. There are no real buyers. Market participants want nothing to do with stocks. We are heading for a crash and its either Friday or Monday.

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  24. Global Depression
    Global Depression

    The ’73-’74 bear market lost about 40% over 23 months.

    The S&P is down 38% from its peak a year ago. Just since Sept 1, or a little over a month, it’s down 25%.

    We’ve already crashed.

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  25. Karl Marx

    The Beard up 8% today.

    One Beard to save them-

    ONE BEARD TO RULE THEM ALL…

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  26. CAP

    Global,

    I still say we have a 15-20% down day before this is over. The selling is going to be so sick that Bob Pisani is going to puke on the floor of the NYSE on live camera. Dennis Asshat Kneale will crap his pants in the studio and will politely be escorted outside to ‘clean’ up. Erin Burnett will rip of her clothes and run around the CNBC news room in her birthday suit. Maria Bartiromo will blow Dylan Ratigan on live camera. Mark Haines will wallop Charlie Gasbagarino with a baseball bat. And finally Jim Cramer will light himself on fire and and jump out the window. Thats when we can think about going long.

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  27. Karl Marx

    ROFLMAO!!!

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  28. chris tucker

    daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaamnnnn

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  29. Oklahoma Uncle

    Make it stop daddy!

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  30. Pot

    Fly, you are an awesome short trader but a terrible long trader

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  31. Darius

    I wont even say I told you so. I wont.

    You guys are gonna get fucked if you keep trying to call buttoms.

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  32. ish

    Erin’sbootycall,
    whenever I decide to just trade on paper, I’m a genious… Whenever I tradwe in real life, I’m an idiot.
    Whenever I go ” do the opposite of my emotions” and “the opposite of usual” Costanza style I chose the wrong time to do it, and again, I’m a genious, I just take the wrong trade, and I still screw up. When I decide to just stick with one method for a long period of time, it doesn’t work. And when I say, okay, I’ll just pick a successful trader and mimic him, I choose the exact wrong time.

    Hand me the foil hat, I need to join the conspiracy theorist, someone’s tampering with my brain waves.

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  33. Darius

    Wait till people jump from buildings then buy.

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  34. Ray Ray

    Bravo CAP…there is nothing left to add to this exercise

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  35. Needle dick the bug fucker

    I got in and out of UYG with a profit. Thanks

    Fly I will agree under 11 UYG should be bought.

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  36. Needle dick the bug fucker

    In markets like this I have one motto.

    the objective.

    “the object is not to loose money.” Book a profit and take it. Pete Rose made a career hitting singles.

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  37. Needle dick the bug fucker

    Ya know if it takes Fuer Paulson to open his trap to sink markets what the hell does that tell ya about investment managers. !!!!!

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  38. Darius

    When paulson gives a speech that gloomy I would be careful of getting into UYG.

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  39. boca

    Even a tiny bit of patience can go a long way. Rome wasn’t built in a day. I had to walk five miles to school as a kid in a blinding snowstorm … oh yeah it was about half a mile, sorry.

    Things are crazy, difficult and screwed up with minimal confidence, but it is not the Great Depression Part II, at least not yet.

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  40. Erin Burnett's tata's
    Erin Burnett's tata's

    CAP +1

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  41. boca

    Needle, in the 90’s Greenspan caused major market turmoil by merely mentioning the words “irrational exuberance” in a speech. Paulson’s a piker compared to that performance, he’s tired and stutters is all.

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  42. The Great Awakening
    The Great Awakening

    As the planetary alignment comes to completion and perfect alignment at Zero Point, and the Mayan calander comes to an end, the material physical world will end, and we will asend into the 4th and 5th dimension, we will grow to realize that material wealth means nothing.
    In order for us to all understand this, everything will all unravel until everything is gone.

    But the ends justifies the means, and those with the spiritual connection to the 4th dimension and above, understand.

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  43. gold

    how much has the market dropped since 2000 in terms of gold?

    How much has the market dropped in terms of 1950 dollars?

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  44. boca

    Apparently I’m being entirely too rational about all this.

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  45. Darius

    “Even with the new Treasury authorities, some financial institutions will fail,”

    Wait a sec. huh?

    “The EESA doesn’t exist to save every financial institution for its own sake.”

    You dont say.

    I wonder.

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  46. Needle dick the bug fucker

    Congress greased the skids for this one. Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 [Carter] and the Commodities Futures Markets Modernization Act of 1994 [Clinton] and the act that eliminated the long-time rule that short sales can only be made on an uptick.

    The ’94 bill enabled the risky swaps and other tenuous securities packages involving subprimes. And it specifically recognized the gambling aspect of these issues by overriding all and any state laws against gaming that might otherwise have prohibited them.

    Great lack of backbone within the Beltway.

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  47. Darius

    UYG 10 -> 5

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  48. chivasontherocks
    chivasontherocks

    Boca,

    if i ever get married again, i hope it is to a woman with your common sense and rationality

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  49. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Fly you feel good about your UYG buy?

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  50. boca

    thanks chivas, you’re a gentleman.

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  51. Elliot Wave

    The BIG major wave down is coming, all stocks to 0

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  52. tripple down

    anyone know if those X3 ETFs are out yet?

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  53. TraderRenn

    Thanks Cap 🙂

    I needed that!!

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  54. bounty_hunter

    Fly gets 3 out of 4 buys right and you guys bitch and moan about the one he *so far* got wrong. Brilliant!

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  55. tripple down

    DXSSX
    DireXion S&P 500 Bear 2.5X Fund
    NASDAQ Mutual Fund
    DXSLX
    DireXion S&P 500 Bull 2.5X Fund
    NASDAQ Mutual Fund
    DXRSX
    DireXion Small Cap Bear 2.5X Fund
    NASDAQ Mutual Fund
    DXRLX
    DireXion Small Cap Bull 2.5X Fund

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  56. DSB

    We are NOT headed for another great depression. We are headed for a fuckin’ rough time, that’s for sure – but not a great depression.

    Remember, in 1929, people had to wait a day or to to find out what was going on, and the markets were less efficient. Globalization and optimization has ensured that whatever pain we are about to endure, it won’t last as long as you think.

    or, I could be wrong.

    .02c

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  57. TraderCaddy

    XLF is way below the July lows when SKF was at 200, yet SKF is WAY below 200. Odd, no. Plus if XLF drops another 50% will UYG go below zero? Will it go plaid?

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  58. Ozark Hillbilly

    LOL, actually it was realtime EW counting that kept me (mostly) short today. I had to cover some in the family accounts because I’d rather miss out on some ego boost than not be able to go home for Christmas.

    I dabbled in value plays in my IRA but I am still short or in cash in my trading accounts.

    Best of luck to all of you.

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  59. bailout lover

    I notice everyone’s down on Russia again today just because they closed their market after trading for less than 2 hours.

    Sure they were down 14% today and about 35% for the week so far. But I think they were right. Get your business done early so there’s plenty of time left in the day for something else like outdoor sports or military expeditions or Putin photo shoots.

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  60. ottnott

    Stocks to zero? Why stop there?

    Stocks that go to zero will go to -$20. Stocks that go to -$80 will go to -$100.

    Calculated Risk had a very nice post today that helped steel my nerves: http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/adjustment-process.html

    Remember that the credit bubble didn’t expand forever, in spite of the self-reinforcing aspects of the bubble (more credit meant more spending meant more economic activity meant more credit, etc.). At some point, further expansion was impossible. The country ran out of people willing to use option ARMs to pay 20X their annual salary for a home. Prices stopped rising, and that killed the market for the flippers. Etc.

    Likewise, the self-reinforcing aspect of the credit contraction won’t drive everything to zero. At some point, businesses will be cheap enough to bring in cash-rich buyers. A crappy stock market is, in the long term, a terrific opportunity for companies like AAPL that have a huge pile of cash. The startups are now more likely to cash out in a sale to AAPL than they would be if the market was booming and IPOs brought the best price. Homes are becoming cheap enough to draw in the patient, prudent people that decided to keep renting and saving when home prices went crazy. Etc.

    I believe that, as long as the governments and central banks of the major economies work in cooperation, armageddon won’t get triggered. There will be plenty of pain and displacement, but no armageddon if none of the majors initiates a mad rush to be the first one out the exit.

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  61. Needle dick the bug fucker

    TraderCaddy Says:

    XLF is way below the July lows when SKF was at 200, yet SKF is WAY below 200. Odd, no. Plus if XLF drops another 50% will UYG go below zero? Will it go plaid?

    October 8th, 2008 at 5:38 pm

    No that tells me when the short rule is lifted in 7 hours. SKF will move to the mean.

    Another great call by Sir Fly.

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  62. Awake

    Trader:

    ETF’s are weighted by market cap

    So when a shitty financial goes down the toilet (Take your pick) the ETF is re-weighted to include more of good financials (WFC, JPMC, Conservative Banks, etc). This is because SKF is merely an inverse swap on the DJUSFIN index.

    Really throws a wrench into inverse ETF trading and can be frustrating as fuck.

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  63. Needle dick the bug fucker

    Caddy,

    Looking at the charts and thinking about how the markets are moving right now. Seems the herd is not moving into SKF but not buying XLF either.

    Good point. This could spell a short term bottom. I wont go out on a limb and call a Cashen like reversal. better to sit in cash. Vesting only small amounts, very short term.

    Chuck

    Wall is such a “random walk”

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  64. DEVILDOG

    Can’t believe I managed to make some money today. Gotta watch those crazy 8s. 10/8/08. I think that was the bottom. We melt up from here. VIX over 59. N

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  65. Q4

    Ground n Pound

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  66. Needle dick the bug fucker

    Beatles for sale, circa 1964.

    some Patron tequila. Emm thats good.

    I look to work UYG like the broke donkey she is.

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  67. Woodshedder

    Holy cow I’m yet again in awe at all the rationalization.

    What the hell?

    Folks, there is no rationalization. It is as bad as you think it could be.

    You’ve got the bailout, the .50 cut, and you see that there is still selling, redemptions, and margin calls.

    Why is it acceptable for the market to run up huge on fake profits, but it is not acceptable for the market to erase all those gains when the reality of the scam and fraud is realized by the masses?

    Fuck it, I’m putting up a post tonight with nothing but my fucking opinions on all this idiocy. The bears should be partying, and pressing their bets. The bulls should be in cash. Somehow, the bears are in cash, and the fucking bulls are still pressing their bets.

    Insane.

    No offense to my friends who are long. Truly, I can’t figure out why everyone is so confused about what to do here.

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  68. ottnott

    I know I’m not a chart chomper, but is this chart formation really called Bulls Pressing Their Bets?
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EGSPC&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

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  69. Needle dick the bug fucker

    Wood none taken.

    My 401k is in bonds and while co-workers gather around the tv like deshiveled indigents around an east end fire can, in January. Im smiling.

    My TD monies are only to take advantage of price disconnections.

    Plus its chest pumping.

    I spend every waking hour reading studying charts etc. I earn my trades.

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  70. CAP

    For all the times we’ve mocked Woodshedder this time round he’s a stock market God. I think the Dow melts down to 6000. Its all a confidence game and nobody has confidence in the market. There is absolutely zero confidence. Sure they are plenty of bottom pickers but no one with serious cash is willing to go long. People have lost their faith in America and our financial markets. Its all over. Time to pack my bags and move to China. The Sun has set in the West and will never rise again.

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  71. CAP

    Perhaps we will erase all those ‘fake’ gains we had between 1982 and 2007 and head back to Dow 1000. Its only appropriate. All things come full circle.

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  72. CAP

    25 years to get from 1000 to 14000 and 25 months to go back from 14000 to 1000. 🙂

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  73. Needle dick the bug fucker

    Wood I see the market testing mid eight thousand. I guess all this supposed money on the side line. Are mutual fund managers holding life preservers {other peoples money} with the churn and burn idea. Im getting mine till the bitter end.

    Damn the end investor. damn the “ice landic’s” of the world. Screw the tailor the cobblers of the world. Feed them hope. Take their shoes.

    It sucks, but in the end the least informed are the most toasted.

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  74. Global Depression
    Global Depression

    How can IBM beat estimates and confirm full year guidance when the system is melting down? Is it really not as bad as everyone says?

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  75. Needle dick the bug fucker

    Cap,

    My concern is foreign money. You gotta know we will see a sharp pull back in money flow from those countries. Riots at foregin US factories?

    Or maybe they have little choice.

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  76. CAP

    The IBM news is another reason why everything will be sold tomorrow. Another example of a company full of shit. Selling stuff on credit to buyers who have no money to pay. They mark it as sales and show it as profit but they will never receive a penny. Its how this whole bullshit system works. People don’t have money to buy the shit you sell. So you offer them some credit and low monthly payments. Then you book the sale and show it as a profit. 3 months later the buyer defaults. Welcome to the United States of America, the greatest fraud the world has ever seen.

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  77. Needle dick the bug fucker

    Global Depression Says:

    How can IBM beat estimates and confirm full year guidance when the system is melting down? Is it really not as bad as everyone says?

    Na my take is. They are some where on the upper totum pole, food chain if you like.

    In the END mark my words. Economics of scale will be the last soul to turn off the lights.

    Thats the bottom.

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  78. Needle dick the bug fucker

    Cap,

    I have a “ccokie jar” no money down, no payment or interest for 12 months.

    Get it.

    Bwhahahahaha

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  79. Yogi & Boo Boo

    Boca – I’m with you. Patience.

    Ozark – Great Job! I was early. For those that will accuse me of picking bottoms, I don’t. I wait for my signals then pull the trigger. When the SPX is 3 SD’s down, it’s time to buy.

    To those that are looking for a depressionn – The credit markets are getting unstuck. For whatever reason stocks didn’t quite “get it” on the way down, They don’t see things are clearing.

    Remember… patience.

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  80. JakeGint

    Okay, I was out at meetings all day, so I just now got to Cap’s rant above about what’s “gotta happen” at CNBC before we can go long.

    I have one thing to say:

    Thank you Cap, that’s one of the heartiest laughs I’ve had all week.

    I literally have tears in my eyes from laughing so hard.

    _____

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  81. Jerry Seinfeld

    So WHYYYYYYY do they call it a GREAT Depression?

    What’s so GREAAAAAAT about a Depression?

    I mean, give me a break, it’s a DEPRESSION for gosh sakes!

    And now for a few words for Barack Obama from our old friend Kraemer.

    WHOOOOOOO are these people who call themselves Barack Obama?

    What is that? Like a Kenyan leprechaun or something for gosh sakes?

    (Honestly, how’s my comeback going so far?)

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  82. JakeGint

    Hey kids — pay attention to the European banks.

    It’s a global thing.

    CAP — I am assuming this is a giant act. You are being way too overly ironic here to be serious.

    If not, there’s always lithium.

    _____________

    Wood — STFU. You act like you’ve never read a book on techical trading before. A refresher — it’s all about playing the odds.

    The “odds” are not on “crash.” That’s a romantic notion. There have been two in 100 years.

    The odds move AWAY from the bears when we are 20% or more below the 200 day moving average. Today we were a tad over 25.4% below that MA.

    Could we “crash” from this place? Definitely, as both crashes (1929 and 1987) came from oversold conditions.

    Is it likely? No. What’s likley? A regression to the mean.

    So pleases, stop with the “are you all crazy?” bullshit. I’ve been bearish and made big coin on being bearish. I have no interest in giving that coin up. I will therefore take the prudent step here and lighten my bearish exposure and begin placing longs for the reversion to the mean.

    This is the rational approach. Capisci?

    ________

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  83. The Game is Rigged
    The Game is Rigged

    Yawn. The Dow is going to 1000, the SPX to 150. Got it, thanks. Booked 20% today trading both ways. Yeah this is awful, please make it stop.

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  84. PharmPhucker

    In addition to IBM kicking ass, Eastman Chemical raises estimates. Lower input costs – energy, natgas. Depression? Or, dumb assed traders being fooled out of their positions in death spiral fashion, only to rush the entrance when it appears they were fools to exit in the first place?

    We’re going to have a 1,000 point DOW rip higher in a single day, when you least expect it.

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  85. The Game is Rigged
    The Game is Rigged

    Pharm,

    Not only is that day coming, and soon. Perhaps before Oct op/ex, but we will gap up huge the next day as the margin calls come in on the short side. Then, and only then, will it be ok to toss on a few shorts.

    Praise be to GLORC.

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  86. Anand

    Hello Fly,

    I respect you as a trader/investor who is very successful in all calls made so year in the last year or so.

    I have some cash stuck in GS (bought at 200 a few months back) and UYG (bought at 18 a few days back). I have a little more cash and need your valuable advise/suggestion. Is it safe to add more with GS and or UYG or both?

    I know you have no time to reply to small investor like myself who is no way close to you in any manner. But I hope you are not that hard as your writing style.

    I will greatly appreciate your advise if you can post your reply here or better to send an email to my email address.

    Thanks in advance.
    Anand.

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  87. boca

    Shed, even after the ’87 crash there was some reversion to the mean.

    My parents (who had me late in life) lived through the Great Depression, one of my uncles rode the freight trains around the country looking for work. This is different, it’s bad, and America may end up not being quite the prominent global power it has been, but it’s not at all like the Great Depression. If you really believe that, stop trading, cash in everything you have and buy a farm to grow your own food. Throw out the computer too, stock up on lamp oil and lanterns and home-school your kids, all off the grid. But if you want to live in today’s modern society, keep plugging away ’cause here is where we are, and life will be what we make it.

    JMHO of course. Smart traders getting worried or fearful or frustrated, and going to cash instead of shorting comes along with slowly building a short term bottom and reversion to the mean, no?

    In other news, Asian markets appear to have a bad case of the runs, send Immodium by the case.

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  88. Anand

    I missed to ask this. Are these ETF safe? Like SKF or XLF or UYG? Do they have any policy to close the fund in case of meeting any specific targets lower or higher?

    For example, DCR was closed when oil started to move up big time. But now oil is much down, but DCR is not there any more.

    Likewise SKF or XLF or UYG can vanish too based on where the financials go?

    Please help me understand the concept of ETF’s. I don’t know much and lack knowledge in this area.

    Thanks in advance for your time and valuable reply/advise.

    Anand.

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  89. CAP

    You’re welcome Jake,

    Yes the other posts are a dramatic act on my part. But honestly that’s how it appears the market is acting. Everything is bad news. The world is ending. Despite the market closing down today the underlying action wasn’t so bad. The whole commodity sector was on fire.

    I can’t discount a Black Friday or Black Monday type event. The possibility is still strong IMO. We need something to flush the last of the sellers.

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  90. Danny

    Boca, you are right re the above comments. I didn’t read the whole thread, so I may be totally off base in my comments, but I know that Shed is now espousing a “crash” like scenario, which, in the scheme of bets, is a VERY VERY VERY unlikely one. He isn’t flawed in his thought process or reasoning, just, I believe, in the outcome. You are exactly correct that if he REALLY thinks that, then he has MUCH bigger issues than “what to short next” and should literally be preparing for subsistence living, since Ralphs and Safeway or Piggly Wiggly whatever it is you guys have will certainly have bit the dust.

    In short, Shed, the crash bet is an extremely poor one to make.

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  91. boca

    thanks Danny. You get it, it’s not impossible but it’s not very likely that in the short term we get Great Depression Redux. In the long term who knows?

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  92. boca's mom

    Im srry to tell you this, but we didnt have you late. You were adopted.

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  93. Yogi & Boo Boo

    For all the “crashaholics” out there – I googled stock market crash, and look what the hamsters found:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2008/10/08/this-is-not-your-fathers-market-crash/

    Also remember, we had portfolio insurance in 1987 that caused the fierceness of the meltdown, not raw emotion.

    People, the crash is over.

    ——-
    October 8, 2008, 1:56 pm
    This Is Not Your Father’s Market Crash.
    Posted by David Gaffen

    The Way It WasRob Curran reports:

    Almost every generation, it seems, has its October stock-market crash.

    The cumulative losses of stocks since the plunge on Sept. 29 are comparable with those suffered in the October stock-market crashes of 1987 and 1929. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 9% this week, after a loss of 7.3% the week before.

    By comparison, in the worst week of the 1929 stock market crash, the week ended Oct. 19 that year, the Dow took a loss of 8.2%; the blue-chip index lost 13% on the week that started with Black Monday, Oct. 19, 1987. So far in October, the Dow is off 14%, compared with a loss of 20% in October 1929 and a loss of 23% in October 1987.

    And neither the week nor the month are over yet. The market has hardly been on firm ground Wednesday, though stocks are higher. Still, the middling reaction to a barrage of worldwide interest-rate cuts suggests that the selling may not be over. It may feel more like a tumble down the stairs than a jump from an airplane, but the end effect is the same.

    Selloffs of this nature feed on themselves. The record 777-point drop last Monday “destabilized the market,” said Lorenzo Di Mattia, manager of hedge fund Sibilla Global Fund. The Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index, known as the market’s fear gauge because it measures the premiums paid to protect against market swings, is trading at its highest level in its current form, around 58. That gauge dates back to 1990.

    Both institutional and retail traders reached a “pain threshold,” said Peter McCorry, senior equity trader at Keefe Bruyette and Woods, where they were unwilling to continue holding stocks so deep in the red.

    One hedge fund manager in Chicago said people he knows who trade on their own accounts are throwing in the towel. “A lot of friends of mine say ‘I can’t take it, I’m selling my stocks,’” said Jeffrey Pavlik, head of hedge-fund firm Pavlik Capital Management.

    Losses are also likely feeding on themselves because of “stop losses,” or levels where traders automatically sell to limit their down side. Chatter is mounting that clients are demanding cash back from hedge funds, forcing them into the market. Whenever a trader is forced to sell, they do so at a lower price.

    Amid uncertainty in their own industry, brokers increased margin requirements, or the amount of capital funds needed to underpin their positions, one hedge fund manager said. For these reasons, many funds may be selling holdings in a hurry.

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  94. Techtrade

    Regarding IBM- Harware is a loss leader. It’s all about services. No one knows how to run anything anymore, and have to pay ransom to the few that can get it done. Eventually that will run it’s course, but for now IBM is still rolling in deals and cleans up marketshare in tough times. Some in IBM privately celebrate

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  95. pn

    I think the dive at the end of the day was a result of mom & pop mutual fund holders puking and the mutual fund industry’s best effort to give them the worst possible price. Thank you for your business. Please come again.

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  96. Mike Hock

    I love bi-polar markets they are so entertaining to watch when your sitting in cash

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  97. Anton Cigur

    Yogi,

    From your keyboard to GLORC or Warren Buffet’s ears, whomever we’re assigned to pray to these days.

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  98. Anton Cigur

    Hey Mike,

    Congratulations!

    Now go suck your alias.

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  99. Needle dick the bug fucker

    Anand Says

    ETF’s are not funds to which you think they operate.

    anyone remember the Swiss fund or the German fund back in 1990. Anand ETF’s are a different breed.

    Bloody well google ETF’s and learn about the basics then come back to this forum and ask questions.

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  100. RAY RAY

    Come on…If you guys can’t laugh at Bob Pisani on all four at the Procter and Gamble specialist post hurling chunks while Art Cashin gets out his mop and bucket you’re in the wrong business…Also for the young’uns on this board who would still like a career in finance may a suggest that there may be a suging demand in the compliance sector. (Procter and Gamble, maker of Pepto bismal…get it)

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  101. Woodshedder

    Hey everyone, I’m not calling for the Great Depression. I’m calling for capitulation. Some might call it a crash. I have probably called it a crash. I have probably erred in doing so.

    We need another couple 800+ down days. That’s all I’m saying.

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  102. alf44

    I certainly DON’T “need another couple 800+ down days” !!!

    Uhhhhh…fwiw !!!

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