Jim “bowtie” Rogers is getting rolled on today, as everything from metal to corn gets tossed into a gasoline fueled bonfire.
The carnage is severe, following the shitty eps report from The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] .
In short, deflation has gripped hold of bullshit commodity stocks and killed them. For awhile, the faux inflationary effects of oil/gas/corn inflated commodity stocks, making people fear for their rice supplies. However, thanks to the kickass worldwide banking failure, farmers no longer have to worry about Monsanto Company [[MON]] ripping them off.
However, there is a severe price to pay for this bubble popping, such as massive deduction of tax revenue for the U.S. government. Hell, the oil industry was the only sector left standing. Now that they’re fucked, expect to see even further municipal shortfalls, causing more infrastructure projects to be canceled.
As for the farmers: those idiots will be participating in Farmaid concerts, within 2 years. The credit crisis is killing everything. God willing, the GOP will shoot down the bailout (spiteful Fly wants everyone to be punished for their ignorance), effectively causing unemployment to spike north of 10%.
Already, thanks to the The Boeing Company [[BA]] strike and auto meltdown, 4th quarter GDP will come in at -1.5%. Write it down.
Look, if General Electric Company [[GE]] and Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. [[GS]] has to pay out 10% yields for a Buffett golden seal, what will General Motors Corporation [[GM]] or Citigroup Inc. [[C]] have to pay?
Look out below.
Finally, the carnage in ag plays is spectacular, which includes: CF Industries Holdings, Inc. [[CF]] , Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) [[POT]] , The Mosaic Company [[MOS]] , Monsanto Company [[MON]] , Lindsay Corporation [[LNN]] , Valmont Industries, Inc. [[VMI]] and Agrium Inc. (USA) [[AGU]] . In addition, all basic resource stocks and mineral are being ape raped. I cannot find it in me to buy this dip, after get “coal holed” in Walter Industries, Inc. [[WLT]] .
The fucking farmers are screwed.
NOTE: [[SMN]] is north of $60.
NOTE II: This commodity sell off further emboldens my bearish position on Vulcan Materials Company [[VMC]] , Eagle Materials, Inc. [[EXP]] , Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. [[MLM]] , Texas Industries, Inc. [[TXI]] and Caterpillar Inc. [[CAT]] If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
You forgot to mention PAL and SWC.
I’m buying video game companies. Fucking fat, lazy, spoiled American kids will still be able to afford their video games. $40 is cheap entertainment, these days anyway.
[Insert nasty hooker joke here]
I would like to extend greetings from the middle seat of Southwest long haul back breaking Bdsm flight from hell with a stop as a plus.
I am broken. Someone bid me $1 for CLF, SCHN and FCX, i’ll hit it.
Bailout = inflation = commodities re-inflate?
Ahh..fond memories of March Y2K. A total meltdown right before the House vote tomorrow….odd timing, no?
“Ape Raped” – I’ve been wondering about this often used Fly terminology. Is it like pig phucked? Bull screwed? Chicken poked? Will Nancy Ape Rape the Republicans into passing this bill, or not? Will Joe Ape Rape Sarah in this evening’s debate? Will the employment numbers be Chicken poked tomorrow at 8:30 am? Strange that The Fly so hates farmers, but is a constant user of animal fornication terminology.
Maybe American Farmers should rise up goat grope The Fly?
Massive RATE CUT COMING followed by 1000 point
Dow upday.
Rate cuts – NOT BAILOUTS – are the way to go. PRINT MORE MONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jake,
Why is Silver heading to zero ? I thought we had a silver shortage. Apparently someone is full of shit. If we have a shortage why is silver dropping 10% on a daily basis. This is fucked up….
I share your sentiment about letting the U.S. economy burn so the ignorant masses will understand it’s not an “us vs. them” issue but then I think about my poor grandparents who live on a fixed income and my little brother in law who is up to his eyeballs in school loans and close to graduation. I hope this bill goes through for their sakes.
Who knows though, it may not even work in the end.
Econ 101
Bailout = Fucked Up Economy = Crashing Commodities
Fly,
Commodities rolling over is a sign we are entering into a new bull market. Commodities are the last sector to roll over. Buying all early cycle stocks would be a good bet here. I think financials will outperform – atleast the ones that are still standing – long C, JPM, BAC, WFC would be the way to go. Long the above and short commodities is probably the way to go. MON POT MOS AGU FCX are all heading 50% lower.
Hedgies getting wedgies
CAP — I am as baffled as you. Smells like deflation, I guess. I am getting cock knocked like Mr. Spock on my pm’s today.
Believe it.
My only consolation is that these fucks will pull out all the stops to combat deflation, which means… hyperinflation.
_______
News Flash:
The equity market is now eligible for assistance from both the Red Cross and the United Way.
Sorry, CAP, that was me.
___
Let’s take’m down – crush those commods – crunch’em too – stomp those commods in the ground!
If financials get their head above water and commodities are drowning solar should fly. I want to buy FSLR down here real bad, but I’m not going to catch a falling knife.
I’m buying some bullshit Ag, oil service names …. I think the bottom of this leg will be SPX 1050 & it should be here by monday at this rate, if not sooner.
02:59:09 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Vibes from Minyan Tony “Snoop” Dwyer of FTN Midwest
So far any government action (TAF or TARP) or private investment (Buffett in Goldman Sachs (GS) and General Electric (GE)) has had no effect on the fixed income markets. Fixed income is for all intents and purposes shut down, which means economic growth is shut down. Unless the credit markets are unfrozen over the very near-term, a mild recession should be the best case scenario.
Equity folks keep trying to view credit in the same way they do stocks. It is different with very different levels of liquidity and transparency. Below are some annualized rate of returns that you can get in the corporate fixed income markets as of last nights close according to my “bond dude” Brian Reynolds of WJB Capital. First, let’s define exactly what Annualized Rate of Return means. If XYZ Company’s bond that matures on 01/15/09 is trading at 93, then assuming they are in business on that day, they will owe $100. That represents a 7.5% return in just over 3 months or an annualized return (with coupon) of 31.5%. If you are wondering if this is a real world example – it is a Morgan Stanley (MS) bond.
Here are some other examples of annualized rates of return (ARR):
* Rescap (mortgage arm of GMAC) bonds maturing in 11/08 have ARR of 199%
* Sallie Mae (SLM) bonds maturing in 01/09 have ARR of 83%
* GMAC bonds maturing in 01/09 have ARR of 80%
* General Motors (GM) bonds maturing in two weeks have ARR of 65%
* Ford (F) Bonds maturing in 02/09 have ARR of 31%
There are many more of these examples except that the bond market is so illiquid that many bonds aren’t trading. Despite the Senate passage of the TARP Bill and a huge investment in GE by Warren Buffet, credit is worse today. Until this improves dramatically, I repeat my message of just “staying out of the way.” This has become so much larger than Wall Street and the U.S. This is a global financial and economic crisis that is showing no sign of abating despite many public and private attempts. In fact, it appears to be accelerating. When individuals and businesses are wondering if their money is safe in the bank, they are unlikely to increase lending to others. The above ARR makes this point crystal clear. As I indicated yesterday:
Again, due to the intense global focus on the credit crisis there is upside news item risk (highlighted by the above 3 bullet points) that could make being short or overly defensive (by sector allocations) look very smart now, only to be reversed on a dime as was the case yesterday. We truly want to be as neutral as possible in order to be protected, yet able to take advantage of any possible dislocation that may occur. One way or another, this is coming to a head as we speak. The regulatory bodies will take significant note of the credit situation and could try to somehow stop it. That could significantly increase volatility over coming days which warrants our position. That makes being overly defensive or aggressive a guess.
Toronto is down 750 points so far today….
Fly,
Sorry to wake you, but at this point, do you think even House approval and Palin/Pelosi girl/girl action at the press conference will give us a rally here? Or has the entire process shaken out all confidence in the market along with most retail investors?
Donmeister, did you get outta DIG in time?
recusancy, try TAN instead
Many people have been screaming about inflation … Barry Ritholtz and Peter Schiff come to mind. They are flat-out wrong. Schiff has been out there making this argument that the Asians are gonna take over the world, and mop-up the needed demand to push commodities higher. That’s Bullshit!
The entire fucking world is going down the shit hole, and so are their currencies. The “emerging markets” will suffer more than us.
It’s DEflation no INflation. And it doesn’t stop with commodities … all asset classes will get hammered from this fucking ponzi scheme rolling over.
Bennet Sedacca
02:17:16 PM
Position in FITB options
More on Integers
Nearly every credit I track in the credit space is trading in an ‘integer’ market.
In the stock market, this can be a good thing if you are a buyer.
But the credit market is a different, less emotional animal.
A few names are Morgan Stanley (MS), Fifth Third (FITB), Keycorp (KEY), Regions Financial (RF), Sovereign (SOV), General Electric (GE), Goldman Sachs (GS).
What a mess.
And it proves that you can throw $750 billion of our dollars at this dog, but the credit market has yet again, voted. Thumbs down.
TSCO looks like a great short for the farmaid BS failure crap!
No doubt, this market takes things to extremes. Witness the commodes puking their guts out.
Gone are the days when JJ was here pumping up SWC and the palladium supercycle.
Bennet Sedacca
01:00:08 PM
Position in FITB options
I just saw…
…Fifth Third (FITB) bonds maturing in 2010 trade at 55.
As in 55 cents on the dollar.
Or a 55% yield. Unless it was a misprint, which is possible.
While I have a bet against many regionals that are ‘too small to save’, this is rather spooky.
The credit market is closed.
Risks remain high.
The guys losing their asses on commods are the same ones that were bootstompin’ the financials. No tears will be shed by Uncle as they implode.
Bennet Sedacca
12:25:51 PM
No positions in stocks mentioned.
Watch Gold Shares…
…As a clue. Gold shares are down a quiet 10% today.
I recall a day in the middle of October 1987. They fell 50%.
Why, they were the ‘safe haven’?
All of a sudden, they weren’t so safe.
AGM is apparently looking forward to helping farmers get more in debt. Nice.
Employee 8– you still in AGM?
Unemployment already is over 10%, as the numbers have been bullshit ever since Reagan rejiggered the guidelines to make them look better in the early 80s
awesome. i love watching bullshit like POT die. when i’m homeless and living in the park, i’ll be shouting about POT getting bought out by the russians and canada shutting down.
We are now downgrading planet earth to a sell.
I just watched the Buffett interview when I shoulda been watching the tape – Donmeister, didya get outta DIG in time?
Juancho, the economy is strong, just like Enron!
bought 75k of xhb 18.67
Anon
I still hold DIG because I think we’re going to have a rally. I thought it would come today, but it makes sense for the market to give the idiots on Capital Hill fair warning. Very powerful fuckfaces on WS are wanting this drop, in hope that it’ll promote a YES vote tomorrow.
This thing is all but assured to pass tomorrow. Bank on it.
Going long names in the coal carnage
Going long drillers
Cool Head Donny – OK. I chased SRS up for an hour this afternoon – I refuse to chase it anymore – F it.
Just bought that pos WLT .. back to a 2 year base where it had that, now, bullshit breakout. Maybe it goes all the back to 5. What a market!
bought MOS .. wtf .. trading at a 4-5 pe
MOS has low PE, but how is the balance sheet?
Can’t buy anything today (or most non-bubble days) without looking at the balance sheet.
I’m sounding very bearish today. Go figure.
Clay Aieken , I mean FCX
This Tape is Gay
The ag names lost at least 3 limbs today. Imagine trying to hobble around on one arm and no legs.
Don’t worry it can’t go any lower! 🙁
Crazy chit mang.
For Jake – a Commie Commercial
http://www.youtube.com:80/watch?v=0vtHwWReGU0
Sorry to wake you, but at this point, do you think even House approval and Palin/Pelosi girl/girl action at the press conference will give us a rally here?
___
LOL, Anton I always had you pegged as a “Hollywood Type,” but now I’m thinking….
… maybe The Valley?
___
Chivas sez:
bought 75k of xhb 18.67.
Holy shit, forget about the Fly’s big clanking balls, my friend, we may have to send out a surveyor to get a gauge on yours!
Must be uncomfortable to sit.
____
http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/oct022008.html
Bruce —
Oy.
___
How ’bout some URE, for that big balled look?
if the bill passes they say it will “lube up the system” great- bend over.
Jake,
Only in the most tangential, peripheral way could I be considered Hollywood. Had many interesting experiences and been to some great parties down there, tho. My excitement in going there is only exceeded by my happiness when returning home. It’s a town that runs on bullshit and schadenfreud.
I think I read this weekend that they’re shooting some of The Office in the Valley now, too, btw. So it’s not just porn anymore.
Fly,
Does “ape rape” refer to an ape who is raping a person or another ape or does “ape rape” refer to a man raping an ape?
Inquiring minds want to know.