Look, there is very little to discuss. The markets are insanely gay. Many of you are suffering severe losses.
I rarely make big mistakes. I made some pretty sizable errors getting long a variety of commodity stocks, thinking I was God to the masses of stock idiots. The lesson learned is always the same.
However, this is why I am different than most of you faggots (that was brazen, wasn’t it?).
Over the last few days, I accepted my commodity defeat, like a man, and took the proceeds to buy more [[SRS]] , [[EEV]] and short a variety of auto plays, including Navistar International Corporation [[NAV]] , Cummins Inc. [[CMI]] , amongst others. As a result, I enjoyed big dicked gains today, much to your chagrin.
The trannies are so done, kudos to Carter Worth for that call yesterday. Short all the rails, including Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation [[BNI]] , Union Pacific Corporation [[UNP]] and FedEx Corporation [[FDX]] .
To sum things up, I took losses today in some names, including [[ROM]] , Research In Motion Limited (USA) [[RIMM]] and [[UYM]] .
As of now, I still have 25% long exposure, with the rest leaning on you bullish fuckers, via [[REW]] , [[TWM]] , [[SKF]] , [[SRS]] and [[DUG]] .
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Very brazen!
This was wacky Wednesday? Buffett says Washington needs to move now – not later. He is about as alarmed as I have ever seen him. It is best not to allow the train to jump the track – fix the track and it will save a lot of expense for the wrecked train.
I see. You changed position over the last few days without posting about it. Yeah. Right.
Fly, you are SUCH a bullshitter.
Cover at SPX 1050 or when the word “Depression” is front page news on all bullshit dead tree printing presses.
Then we’ll have a bullshit 15-20%, “maybe it will only be a bad recession”, rally.
“thinking I was God to the masses of stock idiots.”
But you are God.
Utilities have been beat up pretty hard (for utes).
I think they are overdone, especially with commodities and rails in trouble and the threat of Fed rate increases off the table.
I don’t have anything more than these off-the-cuff comments. Curious to hear what others think.
HOT off the Romanina PRESSES! JJ has just been arrested for punching out some random dude who muttered the word “palladium”.
Is it a bad sign if I can’t focus my eyes, my ears ring, and my checks is pounding?
Switch to pinstripes, and your checks will stop pounding.
We are fucking doomed, Charlie (blackscreen) Rose is giving advice on CNBC.
Yeah, sure you did. The biggest mistake your dum ass made was turning bullish in a Bear market. You’re getting slaughtered right now so don’t try to start making shit up. Just take that shit like a man and shut up with the lies!!!!
you guys are mad stoops, yo. I don’t remember reading the “Fly will post every happening his office” clause.
Bailout to be cut to 250B…last one out turn off the lights.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSWEN873320081002
Do you idiots know how to read?
I’ve said, multiple times, that I sold out my longs and that I’d sell more today. And how many different ways do I have to say “I am buying SRS”?
Why do I bother?
Fuck off.
thanks for all you do fly, fuck the haters
I am short SPG and accidentally pulled up the quote for SGP and nearly fainted. I realized my goof up a few seconds later. That would be nice though. Short SPG from $98 down to $17 🙂
BTW I covered my GGP short at $15 2 weeks back. Sucks. I was short from $38. I nearly bought $10 puts on it this morning while it was trading at $12+. Kicking myself for not doing it…..
disagree with the hyperbole of depression….recession yes but please talk to someone who lived through the depression or maybe someone whom lived in Europe during the second war….they will describe for you a depression.
Only the self absorbed Boomers would look at today and cry woe is me….
Why do u guys listen to the Fruit Fly? I was the one telling you to sell, sell, sell to raise cash 3 weeks ago. I was the one that said that u couldn’t make money two days ago when we went up 500 points “without being in the market”. And, I am telling you that if you were out of the market today, you would not have lost any money. “They know nothing, they know nothing”? Can I be any clearer?
So Fly, ‘it’s business as usual for you”…maybe the only enity in the world that can use that expression.
BEST ARTICLE written about this whole mess:
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/opinion/op_ed/view/2008_09_30_Bear_market_for_personal_responsibility/
Jake gint you will like this one
Even I have to admit that anyone who approves Son of Bailout is a corrupt moron.
Fortunately for us bailout lovers, that only means that its chances of becoming law are excellent.
When that happens, don’t make the mistake of assuming it will bailout your ass.
I’m watching Mad Money nowadays for the first time ever.
When Cramer capitulates, I’m mortgaging my house and buying everything I can.
fly- don’t listen to the assholes-after 30 yrs. following the market your site is the most controversial- thought provoking on the web-period-i like bespoke and the fat guy’s big picture but you take the cake-keep truckin.
Fuck Europe.
oh and fuck jeff immelt.
Thanks. I know even my haters love me. They’re just mad and shit over going broke, within 1 week.
Hey, it’s only paper with ugly faces on them.
Time to drink some bourbon, no chaser.
“anjing bau Says:
disagree with the hyperbole of depression….recession yes but please talk to someone who lived through the depression or maybe someone whom lived in Europe during the second war….they will describe for you a depression.
Only the self absorbed Boomers would look at today and cry woe is me…”
+2
Fly,
Look, fucker, either post every trade, in REAL TIME, or refund my fucking subscrip…
Ummm, never mind.
In PPT, I will do that, without missing even the smallest trade.
You can take me to task then.
“Taking you to task” sounds kinda gay, but I’m in for the “without missing even a tiny trade” part.
Please hurry and get the PPT ready while I still have a little money left in my couch.
Mystery-
It figures, that’s my Abramoff-connected congressman at the head of the pack. Coincidentally, a few years back he left his wife for the mistress (also a lobbyist) he was having an affair with.
IMO I agree All this talk about depression is stupid.
I will only believe this is a depression if I see people riding around in donkey carts like they have in 3rd world countries.
Geez. Everyone:
Give The Great Depression a Chance.
It takes time for all this stuff to unfold. Be patient.
Soon enough, donkey’s will replace cars.
Nevermind I just found an image of the Fly riding around in a donkey cart.
http://doubledudedonkeys.com/Media/Images/TheGallery/Donkey%20Carts.jpg
Shit we are in a Depression.
CAP and The Fly: I’m investing in rickshaw futures, myself.
Nice mustache.
Here is one with JAKE rising his donkey cart
http://doubledudedonkeys.com/Media/Images/TheGallery/Donkey%20Carts%20001.jpg
Juancho – Rickshaw futures. Hmmm now thats a good idea. Where can I trade those ?
Here is Ducati and his donkey cart in some Romanian village.
http://rpjl.net/OldSlides/DonkeyCart69.jpg
Here is JJ loading up his Donkey cart with way too much PALLADIUM.
http://thirdrail.smorgasblog.com/archives/donkey.jpg
Careful there JJ ! Don’t want to hurt that beast…..
This is not your grandfather’s Great Depression.
Your “fireside chat” this time will be a text message on your cell phone from President Palin.
Why the blanket?
Chivas,
Just caught your “nibble” of xhb under Fly’s last post.
Only the drop in commodities and a shortage of multi-ton dump trucks saved your King Kong-sized brass balls from being hauled to the salvage yard by some grifter today.
Shine on, you crazy diamond. Hope xhb bounces to the moon tomorrow.
Utilities have been beat up pretty hard (for utes).
Check out NWN… you’d think we were in a boring market with those fuckers.
Seattle area, building liquified gas terminals, nice management.
_______
Good to see you in form again, Fly.
Still knee deep in tang down here in DC, dude – come get some! They have Popeye’s chicken and Commies rule for a few more hours at least.
Lobbying hard for Jake as next poet laureat – watch those bite marks.
I mean, earmarks.
Karl “rider” Marx
Thanks for the tip, Jake. Intriguing.
In Depression II, the sequel, you will be getting your fireside chats from this happy bastard.
_______
Karl, you ever read Whitaker Chambers’ Witness? about the US commies in the thirties and forties?
They may have had some pretty fucked up economic ideas, but apparently, the sex was great.
_______
You pikers had your chance down the right path
Fly,
Looks like HIG got taken to the cleaners. On some bogus news. Might be a buy.
I know Senor Fly is trying to figure out what will work tomorrow. Will commods gap up and then rally for awhile? I am a piker and will try to get a small profit if that happens – I will wait until the first hour is over and decide if DGP or DIG or some other ETF is going to continue any rally.
Comedy Hour tonight from St. Louis! Tune in at 9PM EST (I think) to watch scumbag Biden and the ditz Palin debate about shit.
the govt dragged this out too long. their credibility in this matter is gone. they could pass a 2T bailout tomorrow, and it wouldn’t matter. the market is going to grind this mess out by itself, and everyone is going to get a second asshole reamed through their belly button.
i will be submitting an employment application to the grocery or drug store next week.
also, the police force will be hiring soon for riot control in bigger cities. could be a good career opportunity there for folks that don’t like being behind a desk.
my new prediction: the stock market drifts toward 5,000, as mutual fund mandates switch to 65/25/10 – bonds/equities/cash.
I really hope somebody tells all the MoFo’s on the LA freeways there is a depression going on…and get off my road
I’m planning to tune in to CNBC when they broadcast a full day of coverage as the Dow crosses 10,000 just like they did on the way up.
Lower Manhattan screwed the pooch. Time to let someone else manage the world financial system for awhile.
We haven’t had a depression in like, 75 years. We’re due, don’t you think?
http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm
We are in the winter now….thanks, anjing!
“Buffett compared the U.S. economy to a top athlete who has suffered a sudden and severe heart attack. He said the proper response to such a heart attack is to use a defibrillator as soon as possible, not argue about the precise placement of the paddles or argue about whether the athlete should have taken blood pressure medication beforehand.”
I think it’s more like when someone is shot in the head but alive, that it’s important not to panic and try to probe the bullet, like what they did with Lincoln, that they later proved ultimately killed him, and that he may have survived had they not.
It’s like trying to remove a knife all at once, without figuring out if it’ll cause the person to bleed to death.
It is important that they act fairly quickly, but cmon, as someones name said “sars pains hoaxly” was the result of acting too quickly… Panicking would be foolish.
http://www.amanita.at/i/08/080917-derivative.GIF
American’s ponzi scheme of credit is in trouble. We either bite the bullet, or we reinflate it, and try to push it off as long as we can.
from http://www.amanita.at/e.htm
The sum of USD 85 billion for the bankrupt AIG looks like a lot of money but in reality that’s just peanuts. As a last consequence we are dealing with the mother of all bubbles: the derivatives bubbles. OTC (over the counter) derivatives alone have a notional value of currently around US$ 800 trillion (!), the latest numbers available (as of 12/31/07) stated US$ 596 trillion (http://www.bis.org/statistics/otcder/dt1920a.pdf). Two factors are especially alarming:
the yoy rates of increase of 40-50%
the disproportion to the real economy: the notional value is already about 20 times (!) larger than global GDP (if the statistical GDP manipulations are excluded)
I’m still alive, only i’m very badly burned.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jLaCqrisEac
Alpha, you’re right we’re “due”. Time is relative, so tracking astrology is a good way to recognize the patterns.
http://www.amanita.at/e/reading/e-0512-juplu-dep.htm
The great seer and healer Edgar Cayce mentioned a depression cycle of about 24-25 years that I analyzed, I found out that it is clearly astrological in nature, defined by the conjunction of Jupiter and Pluto (both planets are at the same spot in the sky), that’s why the exact length is 24.2 years (depending on the orbit eccentricity of Pluto). Pluto symbolizes destructive energy that apparently is reinforced by the expansive Jupiter. It’s strange that only every 2nd conjunction is important (data source):
Ø conjunction 9/1857: very serious recession 6/1857-12/1858 (18 months contraction)
Ø conjunction 2/1882: depression 3/1882-5/1885 (38 months contraction)
Ø conjunction 7/1906: serious recession 5/1907-6/1908 (13 months contraction)
Ø conjunction 10/1932: serious depression 8/1929-3/1933 (43 months contraction)
Ø conjunction 7/1958: recession 8/1957-4/1958 (8 months contraction)
Ø conjunction 12/1981: very serious recession 7/1981-11/1982 (16 months contraction) – last deep recession
Ø conjunction 12/2007: start of the Kondratieff winter depression 2006-8?
On the average the economy contracted by almost 2 years which is a lot. Please consider that with today’s fraudulent US government statistics a GDP growth of less than 3-4% is already a recession because the GDP growth is stated way too high. The trigger for the economic contraction could be the exploding oil price and perhaps also a natural disaster in 2006. I do believe that a depression starts between mid-2006 and 2008 that lasts a few years.
“I agree All this talk about depression is stupid.
I will only believe this is a depression if I see people riding around in donkey carts like they have in 3rd world countries.”
Depressions are lagging indicators. Like Fly said, be patient.
Jake,
I have not read Chambers, but I was there, playing lots of parties with my ace back-up band, the Fellow Travelers.
Look in the index under “chalice, borrowed” and it should lead you to The Incident – the one which involves what reviewers have referred to as the “sci fi” aspect of the piece. I miss those days, and lit psych types will probably tell you that it was the loss of that band at the height of our powers, in that fiery “plane crash” that took their excellent young lives, that has led me to the life of debauchery and cheese-covered chicken I am experiencing now.
Maybe – but this shit is delicious!!
Thank God you finally found me!
So what’s been going on since I left?
C’mon, why’s everybody so glum?
Depression? That sucks!
I picked a helluva time to come back, I guess.
Couldn’t be much worse than this, huh?
Oh wait. I’m dead.
Prediction: Market will not bottom until June 2010 when President Obama officially opens up the border and a bill is passed to allow for mexicans to purchase american homes with a 5%/ 50 year mortgage.
I think you guys need to learn something, right now market conditions are really bad. There is no obligation to be trading all the time, sometimes you need to take a break, and come back when things look more clear. Capital preservation is the name of the game right now. I have been on the sidelines for a month now, I think I will come back until December.
When did Erin Burnett become a giant bearshitter?
Mexican-
If you have been on the sidelines for a month then you have missed out on the easiest money EVER. What is so hard about “everything is going lower”. This is a trader’s paradise. If you think this is tough then you should probably buy mutual funds. Sorry for the candor.
Mexican,
What’s so hard about trading this market? You say market conditions are bad. True, only if you hold mutual funds. This market volatility has been a gift for traders.
Although, I guess if one is a fundamental analyst, he might be involved in a difficult guessing game, trying to guess where EPS will bottom, when the economy will turn around, how much to discount future earnings, and now, how to figure what a financial institution is worth with modification to FASBs.
Some of you guys a fucking crazy. There’s going to be a recession and the US will get over it and off it goes again. Suggestions there is going to be another depression is nuts-oid.
Here’s my bet. I offer 10:1 that we will not see 25% unemployment like we did in the 30’s. In other words the labor departments stats will not register that high. up to $100,000 as a bet.
Takers please?
Just tuned on my TV and at first I thought I was seeing a trailer from “Idiocracy 2” starring Tina Fey, and I thought “Man, that girl can really dumb it down!”
But then the camera turned to Biden, and I realized it was the VP Debate.
thx Danny…I am guessing by your videos that you are a Gen xer who is no doubt fed up with us boomers worrying about our inner child while ignoring the greater society and its needs all around us. The future is what you and the Millenial kids decide it will be the boomers are totally the me generation and you can see where that has left the USA today.
eg. loads of Chinese youth of their own volition hopped on trains buses and bikes and went into the eartquake zone and helped out alongside the rescue workers…the other side of Winter is gonna be sweet if this is the civic minded spirit of the post boomer people.
Right on J…imagine being in the soup line (like back in the dirty thirties ) and the poor bastard in front of yells.. Dammn there is THAT FLY in my soup….SOB…smile…
Attention Jake
God help us
Palin is an idiot
Dems will win
and that’s not good
Death,
I prefer option 2 . Let’s reinflate, and try and push it off as long as we can.
Yo Fly – I seek your mastery — what are the media stocks that you think are going to eat rectum? I was in the bookstore tonight and there are so many niche magazines geared to dipshits with fancy bikes and tricked out watches, and I’m thinking – who is going to advertise in these magazines that no one can afford to buy about topics that no one can afford to participate in?
Chivas,
Don’t worry… most people aren’t listening to what she’s saying. She wins because she can talk and smile at the same time.
Try it… it’s not easy to do.
-DT
Astrology is witchcraft.
“astrologer”?
Your natal chart has burning stakes (not steaks) in your future if my girl Sarah ever becomes President.
I won!!!
http://www.palinbingo.com/
J-
I’ve got a better bet, I’ll think of a number between 1 and 4; if you guess it, I’ll give you 100-1 odds up to 15 Trillion.
Bullshit shadow government statistics.
Good take on the commodity sell off today via BNN and Don Coxe. http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip98265
Fly,
Who is your prime broker ?
Roubini tonight: “we’re one accident away from a systemic financial meltdown”
When LEH was going down, he said the Investment Bank model was history; everybody looked at him as if he was insane; two weeks later, all the Investment Banks were gone.
Chivas,
Disagree totally. I thought she did great. Keep in mind, she’s hot, and she talks like the average American.
With all that bullshit about the kitchen table (from both of them), they are not looking for the average Fly site voter.
Biden looked like he’d hired Sauron as a plastic surgeon. She was pure sunlight vs. his lizard like corruption. It’s unfair, but hey, so is Mr. Melliflous’s presence at the top of Biden’s ticket.
Give me ten more of those, and we’ve got a landslide.
__
I’m drinking Cab again tonight.
I hope you fuckers are all ready for madness tomorrow. Don’t take any of this shit to serious, cause you can lose your hair and shit worrying too much.
Just understand this; the entire fucking globe is now spinning in the wrong direction, and you can’t stop it.
Place modest bets.
fer sher ya know
Jake,
lol. i dont know, but i really hope you’re right. from your mouth to God’s ear.
I don’t care what anybody says, that Palin is one good looking MILF. All those kids and shit … you got to be fucking kidding me. She’s still got a nice curve in her rump.
She is so much easier on the eyes than that gray haired, FuckFace, she was debating.
Gawd Damn .. Dodgers 6, Cubs 0. Fuck me … the goat lives.
Lizard-like corruption is true. Biden looked like the slimy kick down your door repo man he is. His MBIA gravy train may go bankrupt though, so him and his son will be off the dole.
I’ve heard “depression” and “abyss” more times this week than I’ve heard Hope and Change in the last 12 months. I’m seriously wondering if it’s overdone.
I haven’t changed my strategy at all (short oil, short debt-laden cos, long cash rich tech), but I did buy a Glock 19 and plenty of food in case dudes like Roubini are right.
I stick to my thesis that GS/JPM/Fed are doing this to implode the Euro to teach those Europussies who really runs the world – namely American bankers. Biggest bank wins this thing, and that is the Fed.
The Cubs continue to rollover like a fucking cheap date.
They’re a larger flop than the Mets.
“You betcha, ya know?”
Give me a break. I hate when politicians act all folksy to pretend they’re your friend. *shudder*
Cubs simply can’t handle any pressure. Every year they get tense and choke when the pressure is on. I will be forced to retire this Name after the weekend 🙁
Master Fly. For next rally, do you recommend good names or shitty heavily shorted companies?
It’s aiight, Sweet Lou still has some magic left in him. It’s comeback time!
was it 1908 the last time the cubs won? the year after the panic of 1907?
go cubs
Cubs wouldn’t be so lovable if they won…look at the Sox. Why do you want them to win? Savor it for a few more years or decades.
Boca —
She isn’t pretending. Did you catch her right after the debate was over. Those fuckers on PBS left her mike on, by accident (I guess), and you could hear her talking to her family.
She’s all countrified. What you see is what you get.
That’s extremely appealing, especially when contrasted with 36 year Senator Gasbag’s “I’m a Main Street kinda guy” bullcrap.
Doesn’t hurt that she’s hot, either.
_
I stick to my thesis that GS/JPM/Fed are doing this to implode the Euro to teach those Europussies who really runs the world – namely American bankers. Biggest bank wins this thing, and that is the Fed.
Thunderous Small Dog, I am grokking more and more to this thesis.
Maybe it’s just that I like to see the Eurotards get schtupped, I dunno.
_______
I am worried about the Fly. He is not present so often now.
I fear he got a “rusty staple” and he lies on his sickbed, “50cc morphine IV drip, stat.”
_____
Fly needs to blogroll this shit.
(Hat tip, Anjing Bau)
__
It’s like fingernails on a chalkboard to me Jake. She’s a good speaker and I believe her handlers have told her to keep using the folksy terms, even though I believe she has the ability to speak in more dignified manner. The debate is a formal occasion and it felt “planned” to me that she flouted the formality with her choice of slang. She also seemed to automatically drift into vaguely rousing campaign speech sound bites.
She is better looking than Biden though, I’ll grant you that. 🙂 Oh well. Election night will be interesting.
Jake, Fly is preparing for the dawn of a new age. I know this firsthand.
damn right she looked good–and that’s why shes getting my vote. I mean McCain. McCain’s getting my vote. But really I’m voting with my other…nevermind.
——————
I liked how Biden explained his richness.
“Yeah, I live in a beautiful house. Yeah, I make more money than everyone voting for me–Senator’s salary ain’t bad…”
Well played.
Dodgers 9
Cubs 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oXXM7yoB0zA&feature=related
kid, there is nothing new under the sun. old cuban saying.
Jake:
Read Henry CK Liu over at Asia Times, or google him, especially his pieces about “American hegemony.” He who prints the world’s reserve currency owns the world. The Euro is a threat to that. There is already speculation the Euro is going to fall apart over this.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3118994/Financial-Crisis-So-much-for-tirades-against-American-greed.html
Last paragraph.
Jake:
Read Henry Liu over at Asia Times. Whoever controls the world’s reserve and trading currency controls the world.
Euro is a threat to that. There is already talk of implosion:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/3118994/Financial-Crisis-So-much-for-tirades-against-American-greed.html
Last paragraph.
Thunder — without even reading that, I have been saying that for years.
Our country may be screwed up, welfare state liability wise, but at least we’ve got the replacement population numbers…
Countries like Spain are down to 1.2 children per couple. That’s basicall “end game” for a population. Italy is close.
Spain! A Catholic country! Sometimes, I weep for this world, its so fuggin depressing.
__________
Pretty good commentary, my friend:
I’m watching Hannity & Colmes and Dick morris just called Colmes a brain dead cretin who is incapable of doing anything other than spewing Dem talking points.
Morris noted that he said Obama won the last debate and how he objectively thought Palin won this one. And then when Colmes interrupted, Morris fuckin’ destroyed Skeletor.
Anyone have a clip of this? If so, throw a link into the comments. I’d love to embed it. And dip my balls in it. It was perhaps the greatest moment of Live television since FDR spoke to Americans about the Moon Landings.
_________
Jake:
Liu is good for the Asian perspective. The dollar as reserve/trading currency means we own China or any growing country too.
The Euro was Europes’ last gasp at relevance before they depopulate. I think it’s failing.
Palin is effective on TV in certain settings and when well-prepared. She communicated well under pressure. Slightly better than Biden I thought. Very folksy and a relatively quick learner. Of course, she lost substantively. Avoided many questions. When pushed I didn’t think she reacted in a way that showed she didn’t have the depth of knowledge required in VP candidate. The morons that were voting for her anyway (McCain as VP) were thrilled. I doubt anyone on the fence was swayed by her ‘you bethchas’. Still a fatal choice for McCain. Debate a push-like the last one.
Tomorrow back to the WALL TO WALL COVERAGE OF THE PENDING DUSTBOWL.