Our local weather man is on fire. He’s like a tornado wrapped inside an inferno, wrapped inside a super cyclone—heading for the internet.
Serious Note: Gustav is a beast. If you live near the “Red Neck Riviera,” you should evacuate now.
UPDATE: “The Fly” has a bunch of fantastic hurricane plays (he kept his notes from Katrina). However, if I gave them to you, that would be like giving them away. Sorry folks, they’re for closers only.
now a category 4
Combine Gustav with
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5544
and
http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5543
, and we have a potent cocktail for higher oil prices, or at least a spike.
BREAKING NEWS: Gustav could become Category 5 storm before crossing Cuba, forecasters say
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idINN2947893020080830?rpc=44
I have UNG about 2.5 points in the red so maybe this will get me out……or maybe not…………this is acting like George Costanza………oil may fall from demand kill here.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26470515
Now a category 5 according to FEMA
Good luck to everyone that is preparing for this storm and leaving town. Our thoughts and prayers are with all the ibankcoiners down in that area. Ragin-be well
God speed
Litwin
Does anyone know any property insurers to short off this storm?
Best of luck to RC and all Gulf Coasters. Fill up the tank and head North. Been getting rain here all day from outer outer bands and we are 400-500 miles away.
I bet most of the major insurers stopped writing in that area several years ago and started dropping policyholders like they have done in Florida. Some of the casinos would be decent shorts but of course it’s too late.
Zach:
MRH
77 oil and 37 natural gas productions has been shut down and 45 rigs evacuated so far. Almost 1 million bpd shut down.
RC, we’ve already got some NO’ers coming up for the weekend, but if Rosemary Beach doesn’t work out (ie, it “goes away”) haul up i-65 to see us.
_
Right.
RC can do an iBC country tour.
Make accommodations accordingly.
His last stop will be Fly’s domain, in the North East corridors of Guidoville, USA
Bought DXO on Thursday. Oil SHORTS are going to get annihilated.
Much more than that.
Think reconstruction. Think water.
More on this later.
He’ll have to drive through Richmond on his way to Guidoville.
Stop in and let me fix you some Emu, Cajun.
sad to say, but a devastating hurricane is good for the economy, ala katrina.
RC. you and your family are more than welcomed down here, in coconut grove, florida.
My friend is an engineer for the Today show here in NYC. He just called me to say that he has to get on a plane at 9pm tonight with the “behind the scene” crew and a TON of gear (NBC chartered the flight) to get in place for coverage. He said he was scheduled the enite time to go, but the amount of people they are now sending is much more than they had discussed in their meetings. Also, they were set to fly out on Sunday afternoon, and the flight change to tonight came last minute.
This isnt major news, but I do think its intresting to know. They (NBC) must be pretty confident that this is going to be a major news event.
IMO, if anyone ends up making money because of this disaster, they should consider donating a portion of those profits to their favorite charity.
No way Dude.
That’s like giving back the money someone made on ag stocks, due to a drought.
Thanks for the support guys!
With all the activity out there, I like the idea of a “RC iBC country tour.”
Developing…
If I was RC I would head down to Coconut Grove per Chivas. I would be eating stone crabs (if in season) at Monty Trainer’s by Dinner Key Auditorium while the storm was hitting.
TC,
i’m 2 blocks from monty’s. stone crabs not in season until october, but lobster year round.
I grew up in Miami in the ’60s and ’70s and lived off SW 56th (Miller Road). Went to Southwest Miami High and knew Andre Dawson (formerly of Cubs and Expos many years ago). The Grove was pretty sleepy in the ’60s. My wife taught at Gulliver for a couple years when we first got married and I used to go to Matheson Hammock all of the time.
National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. advisory says Gustav is a Cat 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph. Cat 5 storms have max sustained winds in excess of 155 mph. So, it is close, but not quite a Cat 5 hurricane.
But, if you’re living in a shack in Cuba right now, it really doesn’t matter. You are SOL either way.
TC,
my wife, that past away, graduated from southwest in 1977.
Cat 4 and still has all the warm gulf water to gain strength after Cuba. This isn’t going to be good
PikeTrader,
The waters of the northern gulf are cooler than those around Cuba. At this point, the Hurricane Center expects the storm to slightly weaken as it moves north, but they still expect a Cat 3 or Cat 4 storm to make landfall.
Of course, anything is possible, but no one is predicting a Cat 5 storm making landfall, at least not yet.
Even then, it still won’t be good.
Crude futures trade tomorrow, we will see.
chivasontherocks,
What an incredible loss for you and your families. I am so sorry.
I lost my baby brother last month in a freak accident in San Antonio. The pain, it never ceases.
All of you in harms way, please be safe.
Mrs. A.
Bozo:
Oil does not trade on Saturday.
Wait until it opens for trade, late Sunday.
$120+ here we come.
Most recent tracking map shows Louisiana landfall at 1 p.m. Monday with hurricane force winds continuing 24 hours after landfall.
Cajun-
Sitting on the fairway at Pinehurst #2, come on down bring your sand wedge.
FLY
Have you been in touch with your weather guy about the other storm forming? Could this end up being a knockout one two punch?
If I were Obama, I’d grab Jake, jump in a small boat, and just tell the storm “peace, be still.” Then Jake would believe in me.
Kind of surprised to see the negativity from the comment about giving to charity. I think those hurricane folks are going to need it.
I’m looking at shorting Louisiana banks which were hurt after Katrina. With banking already struggling, Louisiana banks are going to really feel a double blow.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a12j5Q2MlMJE&refer=home
hopefully DIG will grow enough to cover this semester’s tuition, that way I’ll have no need to borrow from uncle sam
Chivas- I do feel bad for the loss of your wife. I graduated from Southwest in 1971 so I probably didn’t know her. I was a nerd in High School although being sports editor the jocks were always sucking up to me to get some print.
Cheesefries- So what hole are you on? I always liked the finishing stretch of 16-18 on No. 2.
iio: I am more surprised that people put themselves in harms way by living in these areas, and not some comments.
When you make a profit in the markets it is at someones expense, regardless of ‘canes and shit.
Interesting deletion. In the National Hurricane Centers 2 p.m. Advisory Discussion, the primary forecaster said this:
THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK AT 140 KT…CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY…OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL STILL BE HIGH…FOLLOWED BY A VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS.
But, that language was not in the 5 p.m. Advisory Discussion, nor does it exist in the 8 p.m. Public Advisory. Instead, this language is in its place:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 150 MPH…240 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THERE ARE UNOFFICIAL REPORTS FROM PINAR DEL RIO PROVINCE OF WINDS NEAR THESE ESTIMATES. SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH AN OVERALL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS…AND GUSTAV COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY DURING THIS PERIOD. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
The NHC is no longer discussing the possibility of gradual weakening.
Why the hell would ANYBODY in their right mind want to live in that humid, bug-ridden hellhole
of New Orleans? As dumb as living in Vegas.
KC Bill, looking great on the Fighting Illini pick.
Keep up the great work.
Thanks much, KC!
TC-
Holes 1,2,3,4,5,7,8,& 9 have homes, back nine has none.
Donald Ross’s old house is off the 3rd/5th green.
Danny Lee put on a show last week, 18yrs old…
I walked with them Sat and Sun. Did your boy make it?
It’s funny you mention 16-18. You cannot play those holes without thinking of Payne, at least I never have. You can usually find me sitting in a rocker on the veranda behind 18, with cold beverage in hand.
2nd
Zombie looks like they shit the shower. Good game….fuck me
They were looking good there for a while…had Juice not overthrown Judson on that 2nd long bomb down the sideline, I believe the Illini would’ve completed their comeback…
Both teams looked awesome though and probably will win at least 10 games each.
I.Williams is going to bank some coin next year. Serious Gun
Sportsbook kicked my ass yesterday. Everything I won was in a losing parlay. And Illini straight up.
At least I’m long UNG– VLO just watching that bowling ball of death for the next 2 days.
Sorry to hear that, KC Bill.
I pushed the Illini game; I got +10.
Fun crap when they kicked the extra point after time expired to get within 10. So fixed.
Thanks again for the pick; great game.
Which book do you use, KC?
sportsbook.com … to push that game must of felt like winning the Super Bowl
buddy was telling me about matchbook.com…it sounds kind of cool in that its set up like an exchange where your betting another individual as opposed to the book. I guess you can sell your bet all throughout the game.
Yeah, I’ve heard of that. May I suggest wsex? As a stock trader, you may appreciate it more. At World Sports Exchange, you can trade contracts in any position at any time during the event or after it, whether it’s one game or a future wager. You can even day trade like I did with the Bama game yesterday. Fun crap for sure. Thanks for the info. Sportsbook.com is decent, but I don’t like their futures odds. Your UNG position will easily make up for the f-ball games and then some. Aces.
Coffee is for closers only …. LOL