iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,396 Blog Posts

Don’t Bet on a Bottom

Today is another pivotal day from a technical perspective.

Crude oil is poised to move again, the price action suggests a wild ride in the upcoming weeks. If crude breaks $140, it will tap $150 quickly. Back up the truck on your favorite energy names.

The dollar is trading at a relatively higher low, but I am waiting for a break below this channel line before I trade.

Curiously, the VIX is the most interesting piece of this puzzle. The chart of the Dow that RC posted earlier this week is a troubling signal of more losses yet to come, but for such a bone crushing move in the averages today, the VIX isn’t moving. This makes me believe that the market will sustain a much larger drop before the VIX starts to rally to a point that would suggest a buy signal.

Again, this price action today is critical. I’m looking for financials weakening at support, and weakening tech stocks trading off their highs to get ready for the next leg lower. Until the VIX trades to $28, I won’t budge my sentiment. Rather than try to get defensive here, get short, or else.

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24 comments

  1. BWLD

    I’m feeling a bit light-headed. I hope one of you guys will catch me, should I slip and fall.

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  2. Cajun

    Jeff,

    How can I get that chart of oil on TOS/Prophet?

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  3. CubsRock

    Short SKF $144, lets do this!

    QQQQ’s hit 50% retracement.

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  4. TraderCaddy

    I am reloading on KRE as a long daytrade @ 27.97 with a tight stop. I already made two roundtrips on this POS for some $$. STI,FITB going higher.
    BZH to lead homies on a quick scalp this PM.

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  5. Mushroomz

    Cubs, you want to short SKF to get double long banks? I had the idea to short SMN, it fell down to the 50 day after a quick poke above it and now and many of its components are getting similar support above the 50.

    It is pretty strange that the VIX is trading below its level from June 11, when the market was a good bit higher.

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  6. Sold SKFie – left some on the table – price of oil and ng are out of whack with energy stocks today and for last 3 weeks, oil and gas moved up 10% while stocks stayed flat – maybe believe oil is going to finally push the economy in the ditch? Any guidance by the Fly appreciated.

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  7. Kiwin

    These graphs you have are far too clean to be seen on this blog.

    He, as in “The Fly”, just might ape-rape you, that’s if you’re lucky enough.

    Besides that thanks for your commentary.

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  8. Option Addict

    RC,

    Try CL0808. That is what I used.

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  9. buylo

    OA, your charts are way to clean, like the Fly you should have arrows pointing towards certain points and state on the charts like “longs getting fucked here” and “shorts banking coin there, etc”, reality stuff, you know.

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  10. doubtful

    must be getting close to a bottom; CNBC is telling the common man to short stocks.

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  11. BOOMER

    blew out of BOOM @ 34. small profit. overall market is weakening. i dont think this is the bottom.

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  12. calvino

    where’s the ppt? this is unacceptable to killer hank, and i covered my shorts. let’s run the tape again. proviso, still short bidu , csgp, pot, mos..

    basehead points out a good short with adobe. my pals in the graphics biz, say bizniz iz baad.

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  13. BOOMER

    My current thesis (more of a note to self)

    – recent earns guidance indicate that the 2nd half recovery is not coming. period. not now, not for a while.

    – current market trading range with potential upside was dependent on the hope of recovery.

    – recovery not coming, therefore a new wave of discounting will occur.

    – plus financial/credit crisis unrelenting

    Thesis: shit is bad, but not as bad as its abut to get.

    Might be years before the bull is back.

    Double note to self – self, dont do stoopid deballing bullshit moves to try to make a long work. please listen to me, self. i am smarter than you and you should pay attention.

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  14. Hattery

    I think it’s kind of amusing that the Fly loves to bash “chart chomping” then when he needs the day off, he gets a “chart chomper” to replace him.

    BHP is starting to excite me. Ever since you said buy it at resistance in anticipation of the H+_S it’s been selling off on significant volume. I’m getting excited to add to this position after it breaks 80

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  15. KG

    Jeff
    Thx for ATW and ADBE 🙂 (Ka-ching!!)
    Any opinions on RIG? Nice pennant and it’s down $13 from it’s high

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  16. Option Addict

    Thanks for the pointers, fellas.

    KG,

    I know “Fly” likes RIG, but to be honest I can’t see the long term value yet. Besides, I think you could scalp 15 points shorting the stock right here.

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  17. PleaseKillMe

    Thank you Ben for your fine Harvard, MIT, Princeton work…

    Oil over $140, new record.
    Dollar just 2.5 cents from all time low.
    Corn makes new record.
    GM, F, Chrysler pretty much goners.

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  18. lol

    Don’t you know Ben B’s not on your side?? Do you think an elite member of the most powerful central bank in the world is going to worry about consumer interests?

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  19. Cheesefries

    The all you can eat buffet is now closing.

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  20. TraderCaddy

    Scaling out of KRE for some small day trading $$. Never broke below its low of 6/24 AM unlike XLF so it could be a good long soon (for more than daytrading). Any opinion on this theory OA?

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  21. Prospectus

    RE: RIG–It’s a source of funds now, as are any equities. The only thing up is Oil and inverse ETF’s. This is ‘bad times’. A lot bigger selloff than I had predicted for Spanky and Hanky not raising or cutting rates.

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  22. Prospectus

    OA: I want to start to swing trade options. Do you recommend a broker? I need a web-based order interface and cheap commissions…

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  23. Option Addict

    I trade with Interactive Brokers and ThinkorSwim.

    The ToS platform is great for analytics, but you can’t beat IB rates.

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  24. DEVILDOG

    Mushroomz Says:

    Cubs, you want to short SKF to get double long banks? I had the idea to short SMN, it fell down to the 50 day after a quick poke above it and now and many of its components are getting similar support above the 50.

    It is pretty strange that the VIX is trading below its level from June 11, when the market was a good bit higher.

    Yeah SHORT SMN!!!

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