I do not think I am right about the direction of the market. I know it.
It’s only a matter of time when reality sinks in and people realize they were buying retarded stocks, at fucktarded levels.
Go ahead, look back at the years when the markets sucked wind. Following abysmal January’s, there is ALWAYS a run from March-April. However, they always fail, as grey matter activates cogent thinking.
Look you, I do not need to pound this drum, for it is here to make me rich—not you. However, I will tell you, with the certainty of a genius amongst Congressional misfits, we will trade down between 10-15% in 2008.
With that being said, I will remind you of my game plan:
Bet against stupid furry boots, via short [[DECK]].
Bet against dumb people who work at banks, via [[SKF]].
Take advantage of commercial vacancies, vis [[SRS]]
Bet against China, especially before the Olympics, via [[FXP]].
Bet against weak casinos, via short [[MS]] and [[LEH]].
Bet against hedge fund managers chasing performance, via short [[POT]] and [[MON]].
Bet against Cramer and his inferior website, via short [[TSCM]].
Any questions?
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The Fly Top is in. He sells SMN yesterday, I bought.
I win.
Fly Dies.
Is it not interesting that the day after Cramer comes and pumps RIMM saying it would be at 130 if there wasn’t this little thing called an economic meltdown happening, RIMM melts down along with the rest of tech, hey along with the whole damn market for that matter? I move that Cramer replaces the Golden Bear and Gay Bull when we need to appease the bearish gods.
When does AAPL report? Morning or evening tomorrow?
how the hell do u short POT??? all else is great
Wood:
evening
AAPL posts AH:
Raider beat me to it
For those of you trying to bank coin on the demise of LEH, a well placed internal source of mine says “more layoffs to be announced in May.” FWIW.
Oil about to hit 120! Good god.
Thanks.
IR is hard to find on aapl’s site.
we ain’t done going up … not time to bet the farm on the end of the world as we knew it
I bought more FXI, much to the Fly’s chinagrin.
When do I do all that shit?
Fly,
What was your %loss on SMN? There’s bound to be a pullback sometime soon. All the components are overbought like crazy. Watch the CRB index, double top and looking for pullback then bounce on the 50 EMA.
Best Trade: Long Oil contracts…ehh, why not? $125 is inevitable no? then next week is $130, then $140, then $150.
lost 10 bucks
lets see… ken hebeber says we go up.. and the fly says we go down.. and mind you his mutual fund is long / short with his biggest short last year being cfc..
ill bet on ken
Ken can shine my nuts.
glad to see you back in the saddle again! charge!
Ken Heebner said he is buying stocks now – for next year’s upside.
May turn around here as MER,MS,GS pulling into +.
Take a look at all the volume today on the June $50 calls, and the June $40 puts… looks like an interesting strangle
shorting POT is like injecting just enough potassium chloride to shut down your kidneys but not kill you straight away.
buy PPO as a hedge, since they make dialysis filtration.
Corn plantings are only 2% complete (normally 10% by this date). Heavy rains overnight in key growing areas of the Midwest means they’ll be even further behind. The next three weeks are critical. Planting corn after May 15th results in reduced yields. Given how high input costs are (fertilizers, diesel, herbicides), farmers need to maximize yields. Few will plant corn after May 15th. Acreage originally intended for corn but fails to get planted due to weather will mostly be shifted to soybeans.
Bottom line: Corn is going much higher. Guaranteed.
Fuck stocks.
Buy BCO to hedge against the coming riots!!
fwiw – My contacts with aliens have warned me that Friday could be a big day, direction unknown.
I suppose it depends what we do before then.
Stocks are for asshats- we are looking to have a record season here in Virginia. Climate has been perfect.
Ethanol and Al Gore should be made illegal.
Oil has been in the headlines (heavily) for about three months. Trust me, I am not a bear as you know from all my prior posts. However, when grandma and the liquor store bum start putting their cookie jar savings in the the WTI contract this sucker is going to have a nice little correction. Watch for it, good support at $107.50, if we break that for longer than five days, it goes lower for a bit.
The best trade possible…Buy a shit load of rice from Costco…store them in multiple warehouses. Then proceed to sell it to the Egypt, Haiti, etc., after prices near doubled in a month.
Tomorrow at 10:30 on inventory day would be a good time for an oil collapse. Good or bad numbers it may not matter as it will be a time for profits or the specs will see slower demand.
Apple reports on Wednesday.
That Costco rice idea is the funniest thing I’ve heard in a while. Trust me, I’ve had ideas like that as well in the past but it seems my wife didn’t think it was a good idea storing gasoline in our pool.
Crude, too funny.
Get drunk buy POT.
Ron Paul says fuck income taxes, the irs & out of control government spending http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2008/tst042008.htm
RP also says to fuck the NAFTA superhighway
http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2008/tst042008.htm
Woodshedder:
Just found this on Bloomberg. The government says plantings are 4% complete. The 2% number I used came from a private forecaster who was quoted in another article I read over the weekend.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aLxlZjxyiVCI&refer=commodities
juice,
4/27 is a bradly turn date
Another reason to be glad we kicked Hitler’s ass… the “alternate history” would’ve been ugly.
Fo’shizzle:
Who you callin an alien, Juice? WAAAAAAAAAAHH!!!
Can you call plutonium a metal, when Pluto isn’t a “real” planet?
TSO, VLO calls anyone? Seems obvious here doesn’t it?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=TSO&m=2009-01
http://www.skyscript.co.uk/metal9.html
Through countless centuries a living connection between the earth and heavens was taken for granted. The metals were considered to have an inherent affinity with their parent planets, and represented a material expression of living cosmic energies. This article is extracted from Nick Kollerstrom’s book The Metal-Planet Relationship, an extremely important work which, through scientific analysis and metaphysical reflection, ties the prosaic realm of rational science to the qualitative realm of essence and being. The book explores the natural correspondences that exist between the traditional planet-metal associations and, more importantly, details how modern experiment only serves to vindicate the relationships.
Pluto and Plutonium
Underground millionaire Pluto lord of Death
Allen Ginsberg, Plutonian Ode (1)
When Uranium was discovered in 1789, it was named after the new planet Uranus, found in 1781. No further elements beyond Uranium were discovered until after Pluto’s appearance. Uranium was the ninety-second element in the Periodic Table of elements, and when the next two elements in this sequence turned up, elements 93 and 94, there was a kind of inevitability about their naming. They had to be named after the next two planets, and so were called neptunium and plutonium – both found at Berkeley using the new cyclotron. Glen Seaborg who named the new element had (it hardly needs saying) no inkling of the awful symbolic appropriateness of the name he was giving. He would have guessed it would be fissile, that’s about all.
Within the core of nuclear reactors, a transmutation-process goes through the sequence of the outer planet-names:
Uranium 238 to Uranium 239 to Neptunium to Plutonium 239
The uranium-cycle is:
Earth: Uranium is mined;
Air: a winnowing separates the isotopes, the fissile U-235 from the denser U-238 which remains as ‘depleted uranium’;
Fire: in the heat of the reactor core, the uranium chain-reacts and plutonium is bred; and then
Water: in nitric acid baths, the spent reactor fuel is dissolved and thereby the plutonium is separated out – and given to the military (2).
The ‘plutonium economy’ is one of stealth and secrecy, as may remind us of the way in which “Hades was never depicted in ancient Greek art, more out of awe than because of the problems of showing an invisible ruler” (3).
The problem of who had what plutonium was an exciting government secret, labyrinthine in its deceptions. Pluto’s domain gained its ‘plutocratic’ wealth from minerals, especially precious stones and metals, underground: advocates of a plutonium economy foresaw an era of cheap energy that would ensue from using it. The trouble was that a mere microgram (millionth of a gram) can kill, if lodged in the lungs. The dream (or nightmare) of plutonium-based reactors, called ‘fast-breeder’ reactors, seems to have died, around ‘Pluto’s turning-point’ of 1989, due to world uranium costs dropping.
Pluto Rising
What new element before us unborn in nature? Is there a new thing under the Sun? At last inquisitive Whitman a modern epic, detonative, Scientific theme First penned unmindful by Doctor Seaborg with poisonous hand, Named for Death’s planet through the sea beyond Uranus…
Ginsberg, Plutonian Ode
There was a definite moment, when the endeavour to create a sample of plutonium began: in Berkeley, California, Glen Seaborg switched on the beam of the big cyclotron onto a sample of uranium. Seaborg’s diaries give us the exact moment of this event.(4) The previous summer neptunium had been made, and Seaborg’s team decided to have a go for element 94. A beam of deuterium was focussed upon a uranium sample from 8.00 hours until midnight, on December 14th, 1940 (5). The chart for this moment has Pluto rising within half a degree. Sun, Moon and Earth are aligned (at Full-Moon) with the Galactic Centre at 27° of Sagittarius. That’s our local black hole, (or, maybe its a white hole – let’s not be dogmatic here), which could be symbolically quite appropriate. Also in line is Seaborg’s own Pluto, i.e. its position when he was born, at 27° of Gemini.
The Plutonium-creation chart is bristling with pentagram-symmetries which astrologers call ‘quintiles’. There was a Jupiter-Saturn conjunction chiming and Pluto was square to this, and also it was in quintile (72°) to Uranus. That quintile between Pluto and Uranus met and re-met altogether five times (due to the retrograde motions), and Plutonium was created at the last of these five quintiles. The Moon was on the midpoint of this aspect, i.e., in a decile (36°) aspect to them, and right on the position of Seaborg’s natal Pluto (within 5′). Thus Pluto had moved a decile (36°) since Seaborg was born.
Plutonium has five different crystal-type conditions or ‘phases’ that it can be in, and has five possible valencies (6). These are abnormal and surely unique properties for a metal. In addition it seemed to me that it could exist as five possible isotopes that were important, though others were also feasible. Its markedly fivefold character was expressed by the pentagram-geometry in the heavens at its birth.
I found and published the chart for plutonium in 1984, then more recently in 2000 its striking connection to the earlier chart for Pluto’s appearance was noticed (7). The ‘ascendent’ of the plutonium chart was four-and-a-half degrees of Leo, i.e., this was the degree rising when the cyclotron beam was switched on, and Pluto was then at four degrees of Leo. When Pluto was discovered a decade earlier (by Clyde Tombaugh at Flagstaff, Arizona, at 4.00 am on Feb 18th, 1930), the ascendent at Flagstaff was three-and-a-half degrees of Leo: the genesis-moment for plutonium had Pluto rising and on the ascendent degree of its own discovery! Such synchronicity rules out the possibility of chance, and indicates that the new metal is in some sense ruled by the new planet. Also, Taylor noticed, a straight line between Berkeley, where the new element was made, and Trinity where the first plutonium device was exploded, passes right through Flagstaff in Arizona.
Pluto and its large moon revolve around a center of gravity which is outside them both, rather like some fission product. Thus the given position of Pluto is pure nothingness, mere empty space…
References
1. Allen Ginsberg, Plutonian Ode, 1982 City Lights Books San Fr.
2. In Canada, nuclear reactors have remained unlinked to any military program.
3. K.McLeish, ‘Myth,’ 1996 Bloomsbury p.236.
4. The Plutonium Story, The Journals of Professor Glen T. Seaborg 1939-46, Ohio 1994, p.14.
5. N.K., Pluto and Plutonium ‘The Astrological journal’, Autumn 1984 p.4. I obtained the relevant page of his then-unpublished diaries via a letter from Seaborg. The genesis-moment is 4.00 am GMT on Dec 15th 1940.
6. Plutonium ‘undergoes no less than five phase transitions between room temperature and its melting-point.’ Also its ions are commonly ‘in the III, IV,V & VI oxidation states, but also VII’: J.Katz and G.Seaborg, Chemistry of the Actinide elements 1957 p.265.
7. Brian Taylor, The discovery of Pluto in: Orpheus, Voices in contemporary Astrology Ed S.Harvey 2000 247-330.
“Bet against weak casinos, via short (MS: 47.36 +0.34%) and (LEH: 44.70 -0.89%).”
How do you bet against casinos going short MS and LEH? Shouldn’t that be LVS, WYNN?
http://www.mmacycles.com/articles/articles/pluto-in-capricorn/
PLUTO IN CAPRICORN:
THE GOOD, THE BAD, EVEN WORSE, AND REDEMPTION 1
You want to know what Pluto in Capricorn is all about? It is something that I am quite intimate with. I may be the very embodiment of Pluto’s spirit to transform physically and psychologically, as it prepares to move over my own natal Sun. Mars, and Moon. I feel it, I know it, I am in awe of it, and I am humbled by the vastness of its force, which I am just beginning to comprehend. I try to convince myself that I welcome it, that I will embrace it and work in harmony with it. But whenever I try to program this positive affirmation into my conscious mind, something even deeper within me is laughing.
In fact, I realize that it is not even within me, but more like another consciousness in a dimension that surrounds me – one that is connected to me but not really the “me†as I know myself. And it conveys this idea that: “Ray… you don’t really have a clue at all. You think you have a choice. You want to believe you have a choice and that your choices will make a difference. The only choice you have to is to choose the inevitable. And that choice I – Pluto – have already made for you. You think you can control your thoughts and program the form in which I will manifest in your life, and thereby you can make yourself “joyful†over my arrival. But you cannot. And so therefore the primary “joy†that awaits you, related to me, is the process of discovery – the discovery of that which involves not just your own true self, but also of humanity and the realization of your connection to it.â€
And so goes my conversation with Pluto, as he enters Capricorn and starts his conjunction to not only my own natal Sun, but also the Winter Solstice point of Humankind 0 degrees of Capricorn.
*************************
Standing like a huge monolith rising out of the earth in the middle of nowhere, and casting a very long shadow over all the other signatures within the forthcoming “Cardinal Climax,†stands Pluto in Capricorn. This is the initial signature that starts the complex and fascinating cosmic pattern of the “Cardinal Climax,†and it is the last to leave. The principles of these two astrological symbols – Pluto and Capricorn – are intertwined very closely with all the other signatures and patterns in effect between 2008 and 2015, and even into 2020 when Saturn and Pluto return to their 32-37 year conjunction.
Pluto, the God of the underworld who rules such mundane experiences as death, power, debt, and taxes, moves into the domain of Capricorn, which is the realm of government, authority, boundaries of nations, and is signified by the psychological concepts of ambition, caution, resistance, responsibility, and an urge to make a clear distinction between right and wrong or good and evil. When these two principles interact with one another, it promises to be a very serious time. Pluto is a force that gathers like dark clouds prior to a severe storm. You can feel the electrical force building up in the atmosphere. You know the storm is coming. Inside of Capricorn, a cardinal sign, the storm finally strikes with all of its fury and force. Depending on the degree of preparedness, there could be great damage and destruction, or just a very close call, which in the end results in very little damage and very great thankfulness. And even if there has been great damage, the rebuilding effort that follows may actually result in conditions or situations that are better than they were before the storm. The storm leads to healing and a stronger structure from which to go forward again.
It is my belief that everything we are experiencing today is part of an unfolding celestial process that will peak around August 1, 2010.
It is at that time that one of the most outstanding celestial configurations of our lifetime will occur: Saturn and Uranus will be completing the last of their five opposition passages. They will be in 0 degrees of Aries and Libra, the points of the spring and autumnal equinoxes. At the same time, Mars will have just entered Libra and Jupiter Aries, to join Saturn and Uranus respectively. Also, all four of these planets are in a major T-Square to Pluto in Capricorn.
We haven’t seen anything quite like this since the early 1930-31. That is, we haven’t seen Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto in a T-square since then, and never at the very beginning degrees of cardinal signs, which are arguably the most critical points of the zodiac, for they define when our seasons begin on the basis of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun.
So let us assume that the period of time within 18 months of August 1, 2010 is an important “shift†in the direction of Humankind, as indicated by the principles of astrology.
At the center of all this geocosmic activity is Pluto, that far-out celestial body that astronomers recently announced that they have downgraded from a planet to a “dwarf planet.†You will be pleased to know that in May 2008, at the United Astrological Conference (UAC) in Denver, professional astrologers form all over the world will gather, and they will make an announcement too, that indeed, in their opinion and via their collective observations on the correspondence of Pluto to cycles in Human activity, Pluto is very much a planet – and not a simple “dwarf planet.â€
In the next 7 years, and especially 2008-2010, Pluto will assume a powerful position in the heavens in relationship to other planets.
First of all, Pluto will enter Capricorn on January 26, 2008. It will only stay there until June 13, when it retrogrades back to Sagittarius until November 26, 2008. Then it remains firmly positioned in Capricorn through March 23, 2023. Pluto’s orbit around the Sun is a very long 248-year cycle. During that time, we will expect to see many major changes in the world, which we will discuss shortly, for Pluto represents the principle of reform, and Capricorn the principle of structure and boundaries. Structures and boundaries will likely be transformed in a radical way, and this will have extremely important relevance to investment decisions, and well as political and economic ramifications.
Secondly, Pluto will be at the midpoint of a T-square involving the Saturn-Uranus opposition of 2008-2010, especially at the end of this period when both Saturn and Uranus enter cardinal signs too. This too is a very rate configuration, which last occurred in1930-31.
Thirdly, Pluto will form a waning square to Uranus 7 times over a three-year period, from 2012-2015. This is huge aspect in terms of importance. The last time this type of square unfolded was in 1876-1877.
Fourth, Pluto will be in opposition to the USA Venus and Jupiter, 2008-2010 for the first time ever. Venus rules the currency of a country, and with Pluto, its banks and institutions where values are stored.
Fifth, Pluto conjuncts the Sun in the Federal Reserve Board chart, and opposes it Pluto, in 2008-2009, for the first time ever. In this case, Pluto represents a major transformation of the institution, and perhaps its demise.
A sixth point of interest has more to do with the Saturn-Uranus opposition than Pluto’s position. On November 4, 2008, when the USA election tales place, Saturn will form its first of 5 oppositions to Uranus. It will take place at 18-19 Virgo-Pisces, forming a grand square to the chart of Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, involving his natal Sun, Moon, and Jupiter.
Pluto in Capricorn, moving to square with Saturn:
So let’s begin the discussion with an overview of Pluto moving into Capricorn, a time band that I have referred to as “The Good, The Bad, Even Worse, and Redemption.â€
The reason for this sub-title is based on the past history of Pluto in cardinal signs, and its correlation with the U.S. stock market. In all three cases, the U.S. stock market has made a new high first, and then suffered a huge collapse. It started a recovery before leaving the cardinal sign, but usually had a secondary low shortly after entering the next sign, a fixed sign. You can see this pattern on the enclosed charts of the U.S. stock market from the log of index points, developed by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles.
Pluto was in Aries 1823-1853. The stock market made an all-time high in1834-35, and then lost 80% of its value the following 7 years, bottoming in 1842. It made a recovery into 1853 (“redemptionâ€), before falling to secondary low in 1857.
Pluto was in Cancer 1914-1937. Again there was a “blow-off†high in 1929, followed by a 90% collapse in value by 1932. The market recovered nicely into 1937 (redemption), but then had another secondary low in 1938 and 1942.
Pluto was in Libra in 1971-1984. Once again an all-time high formed in January 1973, followed by a severe recession and 46% decline in the DJIA into December 19i74. It staged a modest recovery into 1981 (redemption), then a secondary low into August 1982, before taking off on this latest great bull market run.
And so here we are again, with Pluto about to enter another Cardinal sign, 2008-2023. Once again stock markets are making all-time highs as of October 2007, with a good chance of continuing higher into 2008 and maybe a little beyond, if the harmonious aspects of 2008 are strong enough to overcome the harder aspects that arise later in the year. If the Pluto-in-Cardinal-signs pattern follows its historical course, we will first see a new all-time high, then another collapse of 50-90% in the indices while Pluto is in Capricorn, followed by a recovery before its leaves Capricorn, and a secondary low with Pluto in late Capricorn or early Aquarius.
To understand these possibilities, let’s examine basic astrology principles for these signatures, during these next few years.
Pluto in Capricorn:
1. Pluto in Capricorn is like Pluto making an aspect to Saturn, the ruler of Capricorn.
2. Pluto in this case pertains to taxes and debt in the financial world. Capricorn pertains to government and business.
3. Psychologically, Pluto pertains to obsession. Capricorn (and Cancer) pertains to patriotism, nationalism, and force. A growing segment of people are becoming driven and obsessed with their country and it’s military.
4. The result is a movement towards “empire building†through the cultivation of superhuman strength and force – a powerfully trained warrior class in some societies.
5. Covert intelligence operations; political assassinations – especially with T-square with Saturn and Uranus.
Now in regards to these last three matters – Patriotism, Military might, and Empire building – the United States is entering a period of great conflict. While the trend of many nations is in this direction, the USA’s own progressed chart shows the opposite movement in force. In the USA chart, progressed Mars is in the peace-loving sign of Libra, about to go retrograde, July 10, 2008 through November 5, 2086. Mars rules military and war, and as it goes retrograde for the next 78 years, it suggests that there will be a strong movement in the USA away from military activity and offensives.
As can be seen in the progressed chart above, the progressed Sun is also important, as it starts its 30-year journey through Pisces. Pisces is not a war-oriented sign. It is a sign also of peace. Instead of being the world’s leader in military might, it seems that a growing segment of the USA population wants its leadership to be leaders in world peace.
So here is the conflict: the world is going through a 15-year period in which the trend is towards more nationalism, patriotism, and military excellence – pride in one’s military. A large segment of the U.S.A. population will of course respond to this aspect, and want a stronger, well-trained and highly polished military, especially as the rest of the world puts their focus in this direction which – by the way – the United Sates has encouraged over the past 5-6 years.
The USA has encouraged the rest of the world to start building their armies again, and now they are doing it. And as they are doing it, a growing segment of the USA wants to transform the emphasis of the military to a defensive entity, and no longer an offensive one.
The polarity between these dynamics reaches a peak in the USA in the next 7 years. Concurrent with the peak of terrorism, as suggested by 1) the approaching square of Uranus to Pluto, and 2) Uranus moving into Aries, this is also a time of increasing emphasis upon military technology and the development of high powered new weapons of mass destruction. Unfortunately, IMHO, this tells us that one of the great investment growth areas in the 7 years will be in weapons development, for the militaries of the world. And the USA may not be the leader in the production of these weapons and equipment. In fact, there is a very strong possibility that by the end of the next decade, the USA will no longer be the sole military superpower on the planet. Our security, provided by our military forces, may fall behind due to the development of armies by other nations.
So in terms of this year’s USA Presidential election, we will see this conflict front and center between Republicans and Democrats. The Republicans, in the mold of current President George W. Bush, are most likely to represent the Pluto in Capricorn dynamic, the awareness that danger in the world is increasing and the need for increased emphasis on national security. The Democrats are most likely to represent the growing movement towards desiring world peace and the USA’s role as a leader in securing this peace, even to the point of curtailing investment and development of the USA military. This conflict will likely reach a peak during this next presidential term, 2009-2013.
But the issue of military strength and development is only one area of conflict within America these days, as signified by Pluto moving into Capricorn, and especially as we approach the cardinal Climax period of 2008-2015.
If we look at a list of all the periods when Pluto transited through Capricorn in the past 2500 years we will see many other themes besides stock market turmoil and military status transformations. Many of you enjoy doing your own research, so here are the last 11 dates of Pluto in Capricorn, to commence such a study.2
1. March 7, 449 BC – December 3, 428 BC
2. March 29, 204 BC – December 27, 184 BC
3. January 1, 42 AD – December 7, 61 AD
4. January 16, 287 – November 24, 306
5. February 21, 532 – November 22, 551
6. January 2, 778 – December 1, 796
7. January 8, 1024 – December 20, 1041
8. December 31, 1269 – November 1, 1287
9. January 2, 1516 – December 21, 1532
10. January 7, 1762 – December 1, 1778
11. January 26, 2008 – November 19, 2024.
There are common themes that characterize many of these eras dating back to 449 BC. In economics, the themes are higher taxes resulting in class warfare, violent protests, and even revolutions against the government or those in power. But there are also many instances in which those taxes were used to advance human rights and construct important infrastructure needs for communities. At the same time, there are many cases of severe restrictions placed on human rights, where segments of the human family have been labeled and demeaned as detrimental to the ideals of leaders who are on a quest to create world empires. These newly “outcasts†are not to be part of this new world order. World power either shifts during these times, or shortly afterwards. But the movement to conquer, and the subsequent failure to succeed in that quest, has led to many changes in world dominion and boundaries between nations. This has been especially true when Pluto has transited either Capricorn or Cancer.
Pluto in Capricorn, 2008-2024: “The Good, Bad, Even Worse, and Redemption.†What are the trends we may anticipate during the next 16 years? If history is any guide (and it is to an astrologer), then we can anticipate first new highs in many of the world’s stock markets. This of course means that investors – the wealthy of the world – become even wealthier. But this creates an imbalance in society between the classes. The “haves†have more. The “have nots†have less. Movements begin to raise taxes, and not always of the wealthy. At the same time there are movements by people in power (governments or dictators) to restrict basic rights and liberties. These leaders of the world move to expand their powers, perhaps to the point of acting upon their primal impulses to destroy or massacre certain segments of the world’s population that they believe interfere with their “vision†of a perfect world. And yet these same leaders may act to rebuild the infrastructure of their country, providing important basic needs to communities that support these populations (as well as their own personal legends of being “the greatest†leader of that nation). On the one hand, they do some good deeds. But on the other hand, there is a cost for doing business with these people: you lose your rights, and you may even be the wrong religion or skin color or nationality, and that makes you subject to annihilation because you are a threat to their perfect world vision. Does it have to be this way? Of course not. And in the end – before Pluto leaves Capricorn – these megalomaniacs with an unquenchable lust for total power will likely make critical errors in judgments, just as they have done in the past. Their populations are apt to rise up and throw them out of power. But only after they have first wreaked havoc and destruction of the national pride.
What Do People Want – What are they going through – as we enter Pluto in Capricorn? By an overwhelming majority of greater than 75%, in a recent poll (January 2008), Americans believe “The Country is headed in the wrong direction.†Only 19% believe the country is headed in the “right direction.†(Note: I am sorry, I cannot remember the news source of this poll, as I read it while in Europe in January 2008).
Based on the movement of Pluto into Capricorn, towards it T-square with Saturn in Libra and Uranus in Aries, the “direction of America†is not likely to change in the next 2-3 years. In fact, the discontent with this direction is likely to go from “bad†to “worse,†and then we come to a period of redemption, probably about 5-11 years before Pluto moves into Aquarius (2012-2016).
So, as Americans, we have a challenge to change our attitude. It would probably be easier to change our attitude about our direction if we could find a leader who really could unite us, instead of leaders who seem to polarize us, as these aspects suggests will continue.
Pluto also pertains to taxes and debt, both on the collective level and the individual level.
In previous years, I have outlined the 32-37-year Saturn-Pluto cycle, where the waxing phase represents the best of economic times, when national debts, taxes, and interest rates go down while the economy and stock markets increase. The waning phase, which is from the opposition to the conjunction, is the opposite: federal deficits rise, taxes increase, interest rates go up, and the economy and the stock market go down or stagnate. Currently we are in the waning phase of this cycle, from 2001 through 2020. But so far taxes and interest rates have not increased very much under President Bush. The federal deficit has. But in 2009-2010, the halfway point of the Saturn-Pluto waning cycle – when Saturn will square Pluto – I think these factors will kick in. I think taxes and interest rates will increase, and shortly afterwards, I think this will lead to an economic recession and decline of the USA stock market, and probably stock markets of other nations too.
We already see signs of this starting to emerge, as recent newspaper clippings demonstrate. The Democratic chair of the House Ways and Means committee, which is in charge of tax reform policy planning, recently submitted his “Tax Reduction and Reform Act of 2007.†The Republicans are labeling it as the “Mother of All Tax Increases.†We already see many states starting to raise their income tax and levy other taxes on their citizens. This is just a preview of things to come, I believe.
Along with the tax increases will come higher interest rates. This could very well be the result of growing inflation, even though the inflation numbers that are currently part of the measurement seem to indicate inflation is in check. But as we have seen in Argentina and even the USA, the factors used in measuring inflation can and have been altered to produce the desired but misleading result. Not only that, but a little over a year ago the Federal; Reserve Board ceased announcing the rate of growth of the M3 money supply. In 2007, several analysts have reported that the money supply has increased at least 13% above the prior year. Even so, if inflation soars, so will interest rates in an attempt to stop the surge.
Debt is another area of concern – especially with the housing market.
In addition to conflicts about the role of USA military and taxes, there is great conflict about debt. The USA citizen is caught is a very strange situation where prices are increasing all around – from food, to energy, heating and cooling, travel, etc. The one place that is not increasing in price is where most Americans have invested their money – their homes. And this is major problem, for it creates a huge debt problem that is likely to grow during the Cardinal Climax period.
I am not going to spend a lot of time on the sub-prime mess, but suffice it to say in every serious economic downturn and depression, fraud is always at the root. This crisis started to emerge as Saturn was in opposition to Neptune, August 2006 through June 2007. This is an aspect of fraud and deception in many areas, but for now we will focus on this sub-prime mortgage crisis. Typical of Saturn-Neptune transits, all the nasty things that happened behind the scenes don’t come out for a year or two later. We learn only now that sub-prime lenders had a huge and effective lobby effort, handing out more than $20M in political donations to legislators “to blunt efforts to crack down on reckless lending.†Those very sub prime lenders are “defaulting now in large numbers, roiling global credit markets, sparking debate about whether regulators and lawmakers should have anticipated the mess and taken action.â€
Wall Street Wizards helped, by creating all these fancy derivatives and packaging them in such a way as to make it appear that this would actually disperse risk. But each step along the way generated large banking and brokerage fees. Even credit rating forms signed off on these crazy packages as “credit worthy.†In the end, it became something like a ponzi scheme, and these mortgage CDO’s became rated as junk. The end package was worth much less than the original loan called for, after all these fees had been extracted from it. In the end, this will probably be revealed as a case of massive fraud and manipulation by the banks, brokerage houses, and sub-prime lenders.
The sub-prime crisis really came to light when Venus went retrograde, July 25-September 8, 2007. That is when the FRB went to work and intervened in the market to shore up support. From that day on August 16 through October 11, the DJIA soared from its biggest decline in over 4 years, to a record high.
But the crisis was far from over, and it once again depressed the markets into the end of the year, and even now, as Jupiter conjoined Pluto on December 11. This aspect can last for up to two months, and the last time it hit in November 1994, we also had a major debt crisis. Orange County defaulted on its municipal bonds. As we end the year, the banking community and the Federal Government announced a plan to help home owners that are being affected. But as this plan is scrutinized, it appears that less than 10% of those who are being hurt by this phenomenon will qualify to being helped by the so-called “bail out†plan.
So want is going to happen? Will the crisis be resolved, or will it escalate and be a huge drag on the national and world economy?
The way I see it is this:
1. Jupiter and Pluto were conjunct December 11, 2007. As this conjunction separates, and Saturn moves back to trine Pluto in Capricorn April-May, it will seem that the worst is over. I think we will see progress made her by March, maybe even by the end of January. Usually Jupiter-Pluto transits do not last more than two months.
2. However, by 2009, I think more revelations will come up and the problem – or any similar one – will arise that will be even worse as Saturn starts its square to Pluto, which will last through 2010.
3. With Uranus then forming its square to Pluto in 2012-2015, I think we reach the bottom of the debt issue and start the “redemption period shortly after.
Now, let’s look at a couple of other charts and see what they say about all this, and hopefully through this understanding we can find ways to protect ourselves, and even identify areas that might prove to be favorable investments.
First, let’s review the USA chart again.
As Pluto goes into Capricorn, note that it will be in opposition first to the USA Venus, and then Jupiter. Venus rules the country’s currency, as well as its assets and net worth. Pluto in a hard aspect rules “threat†of change, or death, or even loss. This is a concern because the US Dollar is falling, and there is concern that it may soon lose its status as the standard world currency. This aspect suggests that may become the case while Pluto is in Capricorn. Before it leaves, it will also conjunct the USA Pluto-Moon conjunction in the 2nd house of money of this chart.
So is this a real possibility, that the Dollar may lose its status as the world currency? Yes. So the first thing you want to consider is: diversifying your holdings into various other currencies than just the U.S. Dollar in the next 7 years.
Pluto also rules taxes and debt, and in opposition to Venus, the planet of money and net worth, this too seems to suggest a movement towards higher taxes and more debt in the next three years. So, you will want to pay attention to what the next administration is offering in terms of tax shelters and tax breaks.
Federal Reserve Board Chart
Now let’s look at the Federal Reserve Board chart, “born†on December 23, 1913, shown on the next page.
Note that Pluto going into Capricorn will form a conjunction to the FRB Sun at 1 Capricorn, and opposition to its natal Pluto at 0 Cancer.
This is a signature of major changes coming up for the FRB. This will begin in earnest right after the election, when Pluto moves into Capricorn for good for the next 15 years.
The Sun represents the leader, or chairman, of the FRB. Pluto represents termination of his role or change of his duties in a substantial way, or a major transformation in the institution itself.
Natal Pluto represents the debt structure of the entity. Transiting Pluto in opposition to it might be the awareness that the FRB either does not have the money we thought it had, or its power as an independent and rather secretive institution is being threatened – and maybe successfully.
Why would this happen? Why would there be such substantial changes to the FRB? Probably because the country is in some kind of a crisis, and the political leaders want a scapegoat. Or maybe because things are being revealed about the FRB’s past history that calls into question the reason for its very existence. These revelations may create an outrage. Maybe they pertain to the sub-prime crisis we are now going through or maybe something else entirely different that creates such an outrage, and a demand for stripping its powers.
And who do you think would be affected by this? Let’s look at Mr. Bernanke’s chart, head of FRB, born December 13, 1953 in Augusta, GA, time unknown.
Here we see a different geocosmic dynamic at work. Note his Sun is at 21 Sagittarius, in opposition to its ruler Jupiter at 21 Gemini. The Moon may or may not be at 21 Pisces, depending on how close hew as born to noon, for which this chart was calculated, not knowing his correct time of birth. From April 2008 through February 2009, Uranus will be passing 21 degrees of Pisces, exactly square his Sun-Jupiter opposition. This type of hard aspect suggests a great deal of excitement, but also of very fast evolving events in a person’s life. The challenge will be to keep things from escalating out of control, for Uranus-Jupiter aspects can be a signature of hysteria and panic, of behaving out of character, and of making decisions and immediately realizing that these decisions may have been made in haste. Unless one slows down and takes the time to analyze properly, this can be a period of poor decision making. Not only that, but with Uranus square the Sun and the ruler of one’s Sun, it can mean sudden loss of position, as in being fired or quitting.
The matter is further complicated by the transit of Saturn, which passes 22 Virgo in 2009, opposite his Moon, and also in square to the Sun-Jupiter opposition. Since Saturn means limitations and restrictions and even loss, and nothing comes easy in this type of configuration, I think it means Mr. Bernanke becomes the scapegoat for things gone wrong. Saturn in this aspect suggests one who is criticized severely, and not very popular. His has a major life decision to make.
All of this suggests to me a very turbulent time ahead for the FRB. And perhaps the next president of the USA does give his/her support to the Federal Reserve Board Chair. Mr. Bernanke may be dismissed, and so you have to think: which presidential candidate would be most likely to fire Mr. Bernanke? Or, under what conditions would Mr. Bernanke quit? It would seem that a democrat would be more likely to dismiss him or an economy that is falling apart and out of his control cause him to resign, or perhaps the fact that inflation had jumped so quickly just means he is at a point of great crisis and must adjust quickly in order to remedy the situation.
But it could be even worse. There may be a call to reform the entire Federal Reserve Board system, as well as to transform the actual U.S. Dollar currency somehow.
In other words, something big is about to happen in the next couple of years. It’s going to affect our economy, our Central Bank, and probably our currency. We are coming into a very critical period in America’s history – world and national. And although I think things will be better for most of 2008, I think shortly afterward the election we feel that we are not really going in a new and better direction. We are still vulnerable to feeling that the country is moving in the wrong direction, from bad to worse. And then we start to pull out of this and enjoy the wonderment of the renaissance we are also going through, but too numbed by difficult mundane circumstances to really appreciate right now.
I see a bright future ahead for humanity, but not before we go through this major crisis. I see the young people of the world leading us into new trends, and these are trends that are actually unfolding right now, like with “You Tube†and MySpace and Facebook. It is huge social transformation that taking place with the aid of modern technology, being used in innovative ways to serve and connect the youth to one another. And herein lies one area in which investment opportunities could be revealed in the next few years. Just like in 1963-1968, when Saturn opposed Uranus and the youth turned their backs on the Establishment and forged their own identity and path, new trends were initiated that became the basis for many of today’s most appealing investments.
INVESTMENT AND TRADING OPPORTUNITIES FOR 2008 AND BEYOND
Many of the investment opportunities beyond 2008 depend upon who becomes president. For example, let’s look at the value of the U.S. Dollar over the past 20+ years. You will note that the Dollar was at a multi-decade high in 1985. In fact, the cover of one issue of Time magazine that year was titled “The Super Dollar.†That of course was its death knell. As you can see from the monthly chart here, the Dollar began to decline in 1985, and has never regained its lofty levels of that time.
In 1985, Ronald Reagan and the Republicans were in the White House. The idea was to promote American businesses overseas. To do this, to make our goods competitive, we had to make the purchase price cheaper, and so the value of the Dollar against other currencies began to fall. This policy was taken even further under the next President, George H. Bush Sr., and his Treasury Secretary James Baker. They were quite open that they wanted a weaker dollar to promote American goods overseas. And it worked.
As you can see form the chart, the Dollar formed a decade low at the end of 1992, just before the presidential election in which George Bush Sr. was defeated by Democrat Bill Clinton. Now the policy changed. No longer did the administration want a weak dollar, and throughout Clinton’s term in office, the U.S. Dollar steadily rose again, by more than 50%. The Dollar peaked from late 2000 through miod-2001 as George W. Bush Jr. came into power.
It didn’t take long for the “weaker dollar†policy to take effect again as Bush Jr. also believed that a lower dollar promoted the sale of American goods overseas. And again it worked. But maybe it worked too well, for now the Dollar is at an all-time low, and there is fear that there may soon be a run on the Dollar, a collapse of the currency.
If this recent history repeats, we could anticipate that a Democrat president would quite possibly correlate with a stronger U.S. Dollar, and more so if that President were another Clinton. So if that happens, there may be no need to diversify your Dollar holdings into other currencies. To the contrary, you would probably want to adopt a long-term strategy of shorting other currencies against the Dollar.
Now if a Republican wins the election, the odds shift towards a further decline of the Dollar. In fact, this would probably more consistent with the transits of Pluto as described earlier. Remember, transiting Pluto will be opposing the USA Venus in 2008-2009. Saturn and Uranus will also make hard aspects to the USA Venus in 2009-2010, and Venus rules the country’s currency. This would seem to suggest either a Republican gets into the White House again, or the decline of the Dollar was so strong that no matter who gets into the White House, the momentum of the down trend in the Dollar, caused by the policies of the current administration, cannot be stopped for several years.
The message of Pluto in Capricorn? Build a bridge that connects people to one another with mutual respect. Be inclusive in this building, not exclusive. Learn to manage, share resources fairly, and cooperate with one another for the attainment of mutual goals, rather than attempt to dominate and use force to get others to do things your way. Pluto is strong in Capricorn. And Capricorn can reward planets of such strength, as long as the intention is to build something lasting and positive, and its goal is not solely for self aggrandizement.
Pluto in Capricorn: it is strength blended with clarity, when used correctly. It knows the difference between right and wrong, good and bad. It is power, but with a purpose and a direction. It can do things either with others and accomplish great things, or it can use others to attain its own self-interest purposes. In the first case, it is capable of greatness, or producing great things that lasts for many generations. It is the start of bold new cycles that can reconstruct the world as we know it in wonderfully well-functioning governances. In the later case, it is a nightmarish experience for humanity in which civil liberties of certain groups are trounced upon by self-proclaimed leaders who are misguided and mislead others into walking over the edge of a cliff in support of their vision, which is really nothing more than a delusion to grant them unlimited powers. The thing is, when Pluto is in Capricorn, we usually experience both sides. The good times come first, followed by the hard times, followed by redemption as we come back into touch with values and goals that are “good,†and virtuous. We learn the difference between right and wrong, good and evil. We become a nation, even a planet, of greater character once we actually experience the consequences of allowing our rights to be trampled upon by leaders of questionable character. And then we say: “Never again.†That’s Pluto in Capricorn or Cancer. That’s our future – unless we wake up sooner than later.
“When civil liberties are at stake, there is a regular cycle: fear, repression, and repentance.â€
-Dr. Geoffrey Stone, law professor at the University of Chicago, in an article written by Ron Grossman of the Chicago Tribune.5
References:
1. This material is from the Forecasts for 2008 Book and a speech given in “Pluto In Capricorn†Symposia in Zurich, Switzerland, January 26, 2008 – the date that Pluto ingressed into Capricorn.
2. Neil F. Michelsen, Tables of Planetary Phenomena, ACS Publications, 1990, San Diego, CA.
3. Many of the dates given herein come from “The World Almanac: Book of Facts 2000,†published by World Almanac Books, Mahwah, NJ, 1999.
4. New York Times, October 30, 2005.
5. Ron Grossman, quoting Dr. Geoffrey Stone of University of Chicago, Chicago Tribune, September 9, 2007.
http://www.amanita.at/e/reading/e-0610-766.htm
76.6-year Part II (10/2006)
In this article I’d like to explain what the 76.6-year cycle as the dominant rhythm at this time is predicting for the future of the stock indices (e.g. an intermediate-term market top around Friday 11/17 – Monday 11/20), targeting potential highs and lows with a very narrow time window.
In the past weeks the stock markets have traded against all odds, the chance of the observed market action has been, according to my calculations, only a tiny P<1-3%. Such a probability is defined as the most reliable technical, cyclical and astrological signals all failing simultaneously, resisting all patterns of the past. While a less extreme outlier of P<5-10% was already observed (in 2003 the last time) it’s the first time to watch P 3.1.2005: high 3.1.05 (deviation: 0 days!)
(2) low 18.6.1928 -> 17.1.2005: low 24.1.05 (deviation: +7 days)
(3) high 5.2.1929 -> 6.9.2005: high 9.9.05 (deviation: +3 days)
(4) low 16.2.1929 (double-bottom) -> 17.9.2005: double-bottom 13.10.05 (deviation: +26 days)
(5) low 26.3.1929 (double-bottom) -> 25.10.2005: double-bottom 27.10.05 (deviation: +2 days)
(6) high 4.5.1929 -> 3.12.2005: high 6.12.05 (deviation: +3 days) & high 14.12.05 (deviation: +11 days)
(7) low 27.5.1929 -> 26.12.2005: low 30.12.05 (deviation: +4 days)
(8) high 3.9.1929 -> 4.4.2006: high 5.4.06 (deviation: +1 day) – but also high 5.5.06 (deviation: +29 days)
(9) low 13.11.1929 -> 14.6.2006: low 14.6.06 (deviation: 0 days!) & low 17.7.06 (deviation: +31 days)
I have examined hundreds of cycles but none of them has correlated so closely with major highs and lows (even just with a small N=9). In comparison, the Bradley siderograph as a good indicator is defeated in all 3 quality criteria:
(1) polarity: able to predict if a turn is a high or a low? The Bradley and most other cycles fail but the 76.6-year is superior
(2) reliability: in the Bradley quite a lot of major turning points do not produce a response in the market so it is not very reliable
(3) accuracy: the time window of the Bradley is much larger, so the precision is considerably lower
future projection:
high 17.4.1930 -> 16.11.06: medium-term high 0-4 days or 1 months later?
low 24.6.1930 -> 23.1.2007: medium-term low 0-4 days or 1 months later?
high 10.9.1930 -> 11.4.2007: medium-term high 0-4 days or 1 months later?
low 16.12.1930 -> 17.7.2007: medium-term low 0-4 days or 1 months later?
high 24.2.1931 -> 25.9.2007: medium-term high 0-4 days or 1 months later?
low 2.6.1931 -> 1.1.2008: medium-term low 0-4 days or 1 months later?
high 27.6.1931 -> 26.1.2008: medium-term high 0-4 days or 1 months later?
low 5.1.1932 (double-bottom) -> 5.8.2008: medium-term low 0-4 days or 1 months later?
low 10.2.1932 (double-bottom) -> 10.9.2008: medium-term low 0-4 days or 1 months later?
high 8.3.1932 -> 7.10.2008: medium-term high 0-4 days or 1 months later?
bear market end 8.7.1932 -> 6.2.2009: medium-term low 0-4 days or 1 months later?
high 7.9.1932 -> 8.4.2009: medium-term high 0-4 days or 1 months later?
low 3.12.1932 -> medium-term low 4.7.2009: low 0-4 days or 1 months later?
high 10.1.1933 -> 11.8.2009: medium-term high 0-4 days or 1 months later?
So the immediate consequence is to expect a market top forming around Friday 11/17 or Monday 11/20 (with an unlikely extension into December). This statement is, however, somewhat modified by the proprietary Amanita pivots (reserved for subscribers).
The only problem is that this cycle will probably not function forever. How long is hard to tell, not likely longer than years, one has to monitor the development closely. Sometimes a cycle stops to work just in the moment it is discovered… Here the chart to illustrate the explanations:
Some additional notes on the different indices: the S&P 500 today is similar to the Dow in the early part of the 20th century, the primary benchmark for large caps. The Dow was a rather speculative index in 1929, resembling a combination of S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 today. That’s why in my opinion it’s a major mistake to rely on the Dow to analyze “the” stock market as today the DJ consists only of the bluest blue chips of just one sector of the economy (link1, link2).
what the hell is going on with burnett’s face? it’s like bob ross went nuts with the cadmium red.
Fly, if your software can’t auto-filter for stupidity, perhaps it can at least filter for length. The two are frequently related.
Bruce! For Christmas sakes, if you’re going to post that nonsense, at least use the damn PG.
Not that I am contraverting any of it — since you’ve been seriously “speaking with the aliens” lately.
Pluto – Is this a filibuster?
!
CNBC is a fucking whore to its advertisers, pure and simple. Makes me puke.
The numbers, they a’ don’t mean a’ shit.
Congress, I’m not trying to delay progress on any type of proposal, so I don’t know what you mean by is it a fillibuster…
Jake, I guess I’ve been “voted out”, losing my status, being “plutoed” once again… aparantely it’s time for me to leave now.
I guess people don’t like me. It would make sense, being that I rule over government and business structure, debt, and nuclear(toxic) energy.
You should respect me though, I also rule over massive financial gains and losses. Since I’m in Capricorn, which rules over enforcement and administration of law,
If you were to time travel, now would be the time, as Capricorn rules over watches, time, and travel, and skeletal structure, and Pluto rules the nuclear energy(and plutonium) required to do so.
Leo Fibonacci, those numbers make perfect sense, and statistical observation of astrological reference points often correlates well with your Fibonacci numbers.
What about me?
After reading a post or two here my eyes are glazed over and I am afraid my cataracts have come back.
ahem… Bolinger Bands?
don’t forget us!
keep it simple
what?
Happy Passover!
Don’t get me started!
Strong as yo gran’mama.
Don’t forget OBV,Aroon,Parabolic SAR,A/D lines,Williams %R, Chaikin Oscillator, Flying burritos, etc.
Need to go to the store and pick up some matzoh before it’s all gone. The Jimmah Carter matzoh special is going on.
sorry for saying anything about bradley.
We should be friends.
What about the Bartiromo index – the more annoying she gets …..
POT will go higher even though it’s at ‘tarded levels…
whoa, I like POT, and yeah, that was a good shroom, look at the colors! I think I can Fly!
Now, who’s up for some PCP?
I don’t like it when P/E gets so high… Just doesn’t seem prudent.
Re: POT I don’t disagree the fundamentals are wrong, but I also see the potential for increased food demand via panic and when those prices go up the inputs will continue to increase.
What are you talking about value, it Might have not been cool when P/E was a young little lad, but look how he’s grown!
Just make sure P/E has grown enough to handle getting high.
Might not always be prudent, but it sure is fun!
Elliot Wave …. Lives On
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/
Aris:
“Joy of Painting” with Bob Ross was syndicated across the country by PBS stations. Original episodes were filmed from 1983-1995 and reruns still air today. The theme song is simply the “Joy of Painting Theme,” but is sometimes referred to by fans as “Bob Ross’ Fifth Symphony.” You might be interested to know that a Bob Ross painting video game for the Nintendo Wii and other consoles is in development.
lest anyone forgets, remember to buy low and sell high!
buylo, don’t fight me, I’m your friend… buy high sell higher.
Watch for raise in earnings expectations, and earning suprizes
haha, pluto… fuckin dwarf planet midget chicken shit talkin like people care.