My double inverse ETF’s are barely down. This rally no longer scares me.
Hell, to get me scared, the market needs to climb another 13,000 points.
I just can’t see myself betting with a loser like Dennis Kneale. As you know, “The Fly” would never do that.
Just so you know, prior to today, I had nominal exposure to [[SKF]]. Today’s purchase under $100 is my first meaningful buy in the fucker, since it was last under $105 a few weeks ago.
However, I did get my balls blown up on [[SRS]].
[[SMN]] just rolled on my fucking face, with great big giant spiked wheels and shit.Forget it. I no longer hate bears. “The Fly” was a little heated this morning for missing some great trades. I will get it all back and more, as always.
Stay tuned.
NOTE: I sold all of my gold today, in order to raise cash.
NOTE II: Watch LIBOR.
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Don’t be mad at elegance.
I’ve been slappin on some shorts, double inverse extra ultra ETF’s, in hopes of Armaggedon Monday
praying for the end of times
Good.
I will enjoy the end of times from my moon base.
You guys shorting here have some massive cajones.
look at the opex days —
most of these losers (GOOG) were at the basement in March opex — today — go figure — if someone were manipulating the market and coincide the highs and lows with opex days — you could make maybe 100x your investment — every month.
Which begs the question — the way to make a ton now is to give this rally about 4 more days — LOAD up on puts and then you’ve got 4 weeks to send it down to the bottom on May 16 and CASH in a horde of cheap put options — May strike.
Hedgies own the market and they are playing it to max benefit by swing trading through the opex days. It’s been going on a while but the March- April swing was the best of the last 6 month swings.
Dennis is a good boy. Don’t mind him. I told him to become a gynecologist but no, he said he hates women. Whats a mother to do?
To the gonorrheal douchebag who negative karmaed me when I called the top at 260 plus on the dow: take a swill of your sustenance, slosh it around your toothless mouth and then gulp some to make sure it’s the real thing. If you want to refute something, then make a fucking argument fuckface. I called it from the euro/jpy chart. You called it from the bottom of your opaque and fetid depths.
PS.. Steve, you ball less rat – your modifier is common knowledge.
Bought some SKF @100-101.35
” ” SRS @83-84.90
GLT
Calvino…honestly, wtf is your problem? I didn’t negative karma you. Anyone who would get upset over “karma” needs to re-examine their priorities.
I’m done bickering with you.
Sir Douchebag – your waters are clear – and full of wisdom.
Abit of economic reality from the NYT.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/18/business/18hours.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Don’t know if you need subscription, so here is some text. Pleas edon’t seu me Bill Keller, it’s agreat article.
Workers Get Fewer Hours, Deepening the Downturn
By PETER S. GOODMAN
Published: April 18, 2008
Not long ago, overtime was a regular feature at the Ludowici Roof Tile factory in eastern Ohio. Not anymore. With orders scarce and crates of unsold tiles piling up across the yard, the company has slowed production and cut working hours, sowing worry and thrift among its workers.
We don’t just hop in the car and go shopping or get something to eat,†said Kim Baker, whose take-home pay at the plant has recently dropped to $450 a week, from more than $600. “You’ve got to watch everything. If we go to town now, it’s for a reason.â€
Throughout the country, businesses grappling with declining fortunes are cutting hours for those on their payrolls. Self-employed people are suffering a drop in demand for their services, like music lessons, catering and management consulting. Growing numbers of people are settling for part-time work out of a failure to secure a full-time position.
The gradual erosion of the paycheck has become a stealth force driving the American economic downturn. Most of the attention has focused on the loss of jobs and the risk of layoffs. But the less-noticeable shrinking of hours and pay for millions of workers around the country appears to be a bigger contributor to the decline, which has already spread from housing and finance to other important areas of the economy.
While official unemployment has risen only modestly, to 5.1 percent, the reduction of wages and working hours for those still employed has become a primary cause of distress, pushing many more Americans into a downward spiral, economists say.
Moreover, this slippage is a critical indicator that the nation may well be on the verge of a recession, if not already in one.
Last month, the hours worked by those on American payrolls dropped, compared with six months earlier, according to an index maintained by the Labor Department. The last time the index moved into negative territory was February 2001, when the economy was on the doorstep of recession. A similar slide emerged in August 1990, one month into what proved an even more severe downturn.
From March 2007 to March of this year, the average workweek reported in the private sector slipped slightly to 33.8 hours, from 33.9 hours, while overtime for manufacturing workers fell by a larger margin.
At the end of last month, more than 4.9 million people were working part time either because they could not find full-time jobs or because their companies had cut hours in the face of slack business, according to a Labor Department survey. That represented an increase of 400,000 since November.
And on Wednesday, the government reported that average earnings slipped in March after accounting for the rising costs of food and fuel — the sixth consecutive month that pay failed to keep pace with inflation.
As people bring home paychecks that do not go as far, they are forced to economize, eliminating demand for goods and services that once captured their dollars, spreading pain to providers like auto dealers and lawn care providers. They, too, must trim their outlays on pay, shrinking working hours more and furthering the slowdown
“It means spending slows going forward,†said Robert Barbera, chief economist at the trading and research firm ITG.
Paychecks are diminishing just as millions of Americans are finding their access to credit constricted as well. Borrowing against the value of real estate — a crucial artery of household finance in recent years — has been pared back as home prices have plummeted and as banks have tightened lending standards in the aftermath of the collapse of the housing bubble.
“At this point, those avenues are blocked,†said Jared Bernstein, senior economist at the labor-oriented Economic Policy Institute in Washington. “Consumption going forward is going to be in large part a good old-fashioned function of paychecks and incomes.â€
Even before the rollback in working hours, pay was barely keeping up with the rising costs of gas and food. From February to September of last year, the average hourly earnings for workers in the private sector was still growing at a slightly faster clip than the pace of inflation, according to the Labor Department. But from November through March, as employers began to scale back in a variety of ways, wage growth fell below the pace of inflation, meaning that paychecks were effectively shrinking.
Now, work opportunities are themselves declining, as the downturn snuffs out business.
1 2
Market is up near 300 points when I leave the front line. What the fuck!?
So, Honeywell, Google and Caterpillar beat earnings ehh? Those fucking liars. I praise GE CEO to man up for his losses. In fact, I’m going to write up a letter to praise him.
Oil is at $117 and credit market is still way off tandem with the stock market. Who cares? It’s the world growth and the failing dollar causing all of this. It’s perfectly ok!
In fact, gee wiz, I am soo optimistic about the global growth, that I am bidding up the shit out of small-cap stocks domestic base firms. I mean, its the global growth and the theory is, they fell down so much, that they are bound to rebound the most right?
All kidding aside, the “bearded one” rigged the playing field so that people have to rush in stocks or commodities. Everything else is generating negative real interest. But fundamentals will catch up eventually.
Call me nuts, but I’m thinking about putting a long position on oil and close it until we hit $125. It’s inevitable right?
If I had more balls, I would have double all my shorts. But there is that saying “The markets can remain illogical longer than i can remain insolvent”.
Nah, that is impossible.
FYI COF down 3% today boys… “arrgghh, What’s in your wallet!?” Fuckers…
Have a great weekend all…
Looks like the bulls tried to peek above the 1385-1400 level once again, but couldn’t jump the fence. Looks like a good setup for the bears next week. The game continues.
I’m thinking to short SHY and TLT and just go away for a couple years. This gyration crap is for the birds (and the flys, i suppose).
oh, and about that new economic boom (hat tip calculatedrisk):
From the LA Times: California unemployment hits 6.2%; worse than Ohio, Pennsylvania
California’s unemployment rate rose by a whopping half a percentage point in March, reaching 6.2% as a weakening economy shed jobs in the ailing construction and financial activities sectors. In all, 1.13 million were unemployed.
COF the only bright spot on this miserabe day.
Watching .. agree on TLT.
A few weeks ago when the market was getting killed I would get this warm fuzzy feeling on the big down days, like, this markets gonna rip. As a bull, the big up days have had the opposite effect, making me rather nervous.
So I feel ya fly, this up day should galvanize you
Today felt like an icepick in the eye…repeatedly…without prejudice….
FLY,
The first step to stop being a BEARSHITTER is to admit you are one. And then switch sides like a a Las Vegas transexual working two gigs at once.
Why do you keep adding to your collection of nuts and berries for your den? Spring has srung….book a flight to Spain and run with the BULLS. It will do an ex-bear legs some good.
If I had more balls, I would have double all my shorts. But there is that saying “The markets can remain illogical longer than i can remain
insolventsolventâ€.If you had more balls, you’d be my aunt, to screw up another shopworn phrase, but “insolvency” is forever.
I doubled my shorts across the indexes, putting me at my largest net short position for YTD.
Funny though, I’m still bullish.
The edge, statistically, is with the bears, next week.
Going back to that chart I posted earlier (the McFarlane thing), it mentioned that these intermediate Bear rallies at 3/8 period would last generally 90 to 99 days before resuming the down trend.
Well, on IWM (ie, the Russell 2000 ETF), that first low was January 18th — 90 days ago. As well, IWM hit it’s 38.2% retrace fib (which is the intermediate term fib pattern starting from the high last July 9th and bottoming January 22nd) today and bounced right back off (with a high of 72.27).
The clock is ticking on IWM if that formation is correct. Have a look at the chart.
You Ain’t Know
Jakey, what chart?
Have a look at the IWM chart, and look at my post on the subject… I’ll see if I can dig it up.
Should PG some of these, I guess.
seconding woodshedder’s request…