iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,409 Blog Posts

THE WOODSHEDDER TOP

I will not discuss today’s tape, for it is redundant.

We are going lower on Monday. Live with it and trade accordingly.

Looking at my email box, I can tell you there is a lot of scrambling for capital at [[MS]]. They are issuing loads of notes, with 10.5% coupons.

Egregious.

The worst I’ve seen is by [[AMD]]. They are offering 21.5% reverse converts. Ha!

Here, take a look at the document.

In short, “The Fly” wins all the time, even when he appears to be losing. Enjoy the recession and long live iBankCoin.

Off to celebrate GE’s demise (biggest one day drop since ’87 crash) over a cigar or two.

If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter

56 comments

  1. Newbie

    Fly:

    I’m confused. If we are going into an inflationary period in this country, and commodities do well in an inflationary period, then why would a person want to put money into SMN(as I know you have)when the holdings are primarily commodity based?

    I am a bit new at this game but it seems to me that looking a little further down the road(say 6-12 mos)inflation will continue to be a bigger problem. Where am I flawed in my thinking & why own this ETF?

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  2. mrkcbill

    Egregious that is the best word of the year.
    Everytime I hear it on TV I have to rewind to hear it again.
    Thank You So Much!

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  3. El Tiberon

    Loved Today!!!My shorts make me happy and my longs are doing really well too…Will Love Next Week even more!!!

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  4. Big Mike

    We are rallying 300+ points on Monday…mark my words…every fucking time fly talks shit…bam, market rallies…

    Im long Ags, XLF, XHB…Im going long FED too…damn near fell 13%

    Book it people!

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  5. The Fly

    Newbie:

    I have numerous positions. SMN is just one of them.

    Mainly, I believe MON is egregiously over valued.

    MON represents 12% of SMN.

    All of the Ag stocks are over valued.

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  6. The Fly

    Fuck you little Mike.

    If you were to do the opposite of me, you’d be down 20%+ every year, over the last 6 years.

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  7. ha ha

    Fly talks shit all the fucking time. That’s why we read this egregious interblog site. But yeah, come Monday, the asshats who trade this market will have forgotten all about GE. You know it.

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  8. The Fly

    Wrong Again!

    We have financial earnings to remind us.

    Keep in mind, ungodly folks, WE ARE IN AN EGREGIOUSLY BAD RECESSION.

    I may live blog the recession on Sunday.

    Developing…

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  9. option pro

    GE will be up next week. Bought 100 of the May 32 calls averaging 1.55…. A steal.

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  10. El Tiberon

    Newbie,

    Real demand for commodities cannot be maintained at these prices. Analysts want us to believe developing countries will suck up the demand, but when their middle class makes <USD$10,000 per year a 200% increase in energy costs is prohibitive not to mention minerals increases making fridges et al much more expensive and out of reach. Think about it when wages are low i.e., China – wages are growing at 4-5% and inflation at 7-8% how long does it take for expenses to outpace income when you have fuck all for income to begin with. It is a house of cards…

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  11. Dinosaur Trader

    If you live blog the recession, can you include video footage of me opening my mailbox to receive my stimulus check? Or have I already “had my chance?”

    I can even throw on a southern accent to make it more authentic!

    -DT

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  12. ha ha

    Also next week is option expiration. I am getting my fucking popcorn for this.

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  13. Jeff "I melted" Immelt
    Jeff "I melted" Immelt

    I will not forget.

    Fuck me. What a disaster.

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  14. Newbie

    Thanks for the insight Fly & El Tiberon.

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  15. Da Bears

    Fly, a very fitting song for today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rL9ihXiFAko

    Geto Boys – Damn it feels good to be a gangsta

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  16. JakeGint

    I may live blog the recession on Sunday.

    What? Is there a wedding after Mass?

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  17. Q4

    Recession is back

    Before You Know It

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  18. The Fly

    The recession is upon us. Run for cover and lock your doors.

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  19. MarketRaider

    That was a pretty fricken decisive break with good volume and all from that rising wedge pattern on the $INDU that everyone was touting as the springboard to a retest of DOW 1300. DOW 1800ish here we come.

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  20. Sia

    Short COF!

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  21. JakeGint

    Why You Gotta Love Brooklyn, Reason #257:

    The Boys Rock the Galaxy, Japanesy & Shit:

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  22. JakeGint

    Q4 — I did not see your vid selection before I made mine.

    Kind of odd, no?

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  23. Prospectus

    @Newbie: This recession and the credit bubble bursting are both massively deflationary forces. The liquidity being injected by the Fed and other central banks is peanuts compared to what is happening. It’s net deflation, period.

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  24. Re:newbie

    Newbie, SKF and DGP and UDN will also do well in inflation… Inflation might continue but the market is forward looking. If the market sees the dollar bottoming, ags will no doubt “fhit the shan”. So you acquire a position now, along with the banks, and if inflation continues you bank coin on the banks and gold, but if the market looks ahead and thinks it’s ending in 6 months, then you cash out on SKF, and DGP, and you start wllowing SMN to do what it’s supposed to.
    Being able to survive a dollar collapse until it inflates like zimbabwe, or a deflationary crash like the depression allows you to make money either way.
    There’s really both inflation and deflation going on. Prices going up for consumers, dollar weakening, but that’s due to the corrective measures to offset deflation.

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  25. treepart

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_M9zWORBuA&feature=related

    Clapton’s musical interpretation of all things Gasparino.

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  26. Humpty Hump

    Yo-Take my shit of yo site.

    You got to pay Humpty Hump to Play Humpty Hump.

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  27. Mac

    Volume was lower on the Nasdaq by a lot and flat compared to yesterday on the S&P and Dow. I expected heavier volume for a 2.5% down day on the Nasdaq. Makes me a little hesitant to get more bearish. Just saying.

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  28. Woodshedder

    Its good to be famous.

    Who else gets his moniker placed so prominently across a header?

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  29. Woodshedder

    I’ll get my technicals together and volley back at you over the weekend Fly. Until then, enjoy the rib eyes and the kiddos.

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  30. lol

    nasdaq still had some increased volume… and took down yesterday’s gains. I think today was enough to represent some conviction by bears… We’ll see how the bulls retaliate. I dare them to buy before options expiry.

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  31. Mac

    lol, I’m just saying today’s action would be a lot easier to trust if volume was heavier today. This market can’t make anything easy however. Follow-through will be what I’m watching for, and we haven’t gotten any of that for a long time on either side.

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  32. Big Mike

    “Little Mike”? Asshole…I’ll show you how little I am…

    Anyhoo, what are everybody’s plan given its option Expiration day this Friday.
    IBM earnings is clutch next week…its the biggest component of the Dow Jones.

    Fly, if you think Monsanto is overvalued, what about Potash?

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  33. JakeGint

    BTW — I looked at that AMD “offering.”

    I find it hard to believe they can market that shite. Surely you are not selling that to retail asshats?

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  34. kittoo

    Fly is GOD…

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  35. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Macke said he’s not bearish in the wake of GE’s earnings. He said to buy the financials on dips, because now there’s less room for surprise in the stocks.

    Ok sure lets keep buying the financials on dips. One of these days you will no doubt be right. Then again one of these days you may finally hit the lottery.

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  36. mrkcbill

    Gap …buy them on the dip at $2 sell @ $10 works everytime.

    I liked your story about BBQuing that check @ JPM. Banks are something else with all their egregious little bullshit fees.
    All a bunch of thieves charging people to deposit money.

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  37. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    mrkcbill: I asked them for the Jamie Dimon special and evidently they gave it to me. Pure David Blane shit. I am still bitter that I can’t do business with their customers anymore. Sad really but fuck them. Pure roulette wheel operation.

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  38. jeff

    suck a titty

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  39. Bill Fleck - aka, Papa Bear
    Bill Fleck - aka, Papa Bear

    Listen up pikers: This is what I had to say to my subs 2nite.

    =======================================

    Attempting to Answer the Multi-Trillion-Dollar Question
    Today’s Rap will be about what I perceive as the big debate on Wall Street. I think it’s the most important topic or variable to focus on going forward. As I see it, the multi-trillion-dollar question is: Has the worst been seen, or is the worst yet to be seen? It would be no surprise to readers if I said I find myself in the latter camp, which I do, and I’ll explain why.
    Poof
    The majority of market participants, though, in my opinion find themselves in the former camp. They believe that because a handful of folks have now said the word “recession,” it’s therefore nearly over. As a result, they say all the bad news that we see is a function of what we “already know.” Thus, it’s been discounted and should be ignored.
    Similarly, they take confidence in the fact that we had a market low in January, created around the SoGen panic, and was boxscoreretested as Bear Stearns supposedly almost took the system apart. (Which caused the Fed to create the latest alphabet soup of funding facilities.) The combination of recession and those two financial panics has encouraged the bulls to feel that we now have seen what we need to see before we have a bull market and therefore we should buy stocks.
    That glib notion has arisen, in my opinion, because of the policies pursued by Greenspan and the Fed over the last 20 years, which led us to the sad state of the bailout nation that we are now. Bulls remember that any time there was an admission of recession or any kind of panic during that 20-year ride, it resolved itself positively in relatively short order, if not almost instantly. (They forget that it took a little time, between 2001 and 2003, but that’s a minor point.)
    That same class of animal believed that as the credit bubble initially burst, in the form of the initial subprime FPDs (first payment defaults), it was just subprime and then of course it was contained, and everyone knows how the story went from there. I believe those folks in that camp never understood that the housing bubble was the economy, which is why they are now quite sanguine.
    Listening to the speakers at the Grant’s conference, some thoughtful people are in the it’s-going-to-get-better camp, because it hasn’t gotten all that bad yet. Perhaps they will be right, but I don’t think so. I think the better arguments are made by those who understood what the unwinding of the credit bubble meant, who understood that it wasn’t just subprime, who understood that it wasn’t contained — and, armed with that knowledge, therefore realize that the ramifications of that bubble’s unwinding are quite large.
    Teardowns in Home Prices
    One such person (besides myself) is John Paulson, whose hedge fund made an enormous score ( I believe the biggest score of all time, registered by a hedge fund), betting against subprime and the rest of the credit structure. His best guess is that when housing reaches a bottom, prices on average will be down 25% from the top, which is to say another 10%-15% from where they have already fallen. This is on average, mind you. Some locations will fare worse, others better.
    If that happens, the ramifications throughout the financial system and economy will be sizable — which, to repeat, is what I believe. And, as I point out in the book, aside from mortgage-equity extraction, the last recovery essentially wasn’t one. And, given the fact that job creation in that economic recovery was approximately 40% related to real estate, there’s no way you’re going to convince me that the recession which comes out of that will be some mild event that is manageable and contained and pretty much behind us. It just makes no sense to me. Even though the recession after the equity bubble was milder than I would have expected, that’s because it was positively impacted by the beginning of the housing bubble. This bubble (as I pointed out while it was under way) was destined to leave bad debts in its wake, crippling both the lender and the consumer.
    From a trading standpoint, one has to be cognizant of the fact that the folks who believe everything will be okay have more votes and more money than the folks who are in the other camp. Thus, the tricky part to me has been when will it be safe to express (via shorts) this bearish view.
    As the financial world supposedly teetered on the brink of demise, on the back of the Bear Stearns collapse, I felt we were either going to have an enormous meltdown; or, as it became clearer that the Fed had stemmed the tide, we would experience a big rally. As it became apparent that the latter was the case, I cut back my shorts. Since then, I’ve been wondering when to add to them, and today I did. Monday and Tuesday, I’ll probably add more to my short positions, as I think this earnings season will be difficult and cumulative as we slog through next week.
    What I can’t know is: Once we get near the end of earnings season, will the bullish contingent once again run the tape back up, because they’re convinced that the worst has been seen — yet again? Probably they will, and I’ll probably cover into earnings. Then, I will look for one more rally to really lay into.
    The big money on the short side is going to be made when the bullish crowd — awaiting the promised land — realizes that it’s trying to look past not just some small ravine, but a chasm as wide as the Grand Canyon. Once they understand that, we will see the combination of the stock market, the economy, and the real-estate market feed on each other — and we will finally experience the next time down. When that happens is not knowable at this point, but there is no doubt in my mind, as I have said, that this outcome is inevitable.
    General Electric Goes on Battery Power
    This morning brought the financial soap opera that I just described into focus. GE informed the world that not only had it lost at “beat the number,” it would have to take down its guidance, as business recently got much worse. After seeing that data, I thought the most important clue as to the market’s mental state would be how the stock responded to the news — which was to gap down over 10%. Perhaps that is an indication of how stocks will react to bad news, and hence my interest in being short some companies that I think will disappoint the crowd. In any case GE managed to weaken the market to the tune of about 1% across the board.
    Then, about 30 minutes into the day, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index was released. It declined 10% vs. last month and what was expected for this month, as the survey was reported at 63.2, instead of reading 69-ish. The market sold off a bit on that news. But then we had a straight-up screamer of a rally, as I’m sure the bullish contingent decided, okay, now it’s really the bottom. Their logic? Something like: We’ve had bad news from GE and a worse than expected number in consumer confidence, so that “proves the bottom is in.” (Though it didn’t work for them today.)
    2, 4, 6, 8, What News Are We Gonna Transmutate?
    That is the beauty of the bullish argument right now: Believers can take every piece of bad news that corroborates the economy is weak and perversely try to spin that into being bullish. What they don’t get is that none of these events that are worse than they expected, or totally unexpected mean they don’t understand the situation. But that nuance seems to be lost on the bullish crowd.
    Lastly on that subject, George Soros has thoughts similar to the ones that I’ve shared. In today’s New York Times, he says: “‘I consider this the biggest financial crisis of my lifetime.” The paper paraphrases his thoughts as follows: “A ‘superbubble’ has been swelling for a quarter of a century [and] is finally bursting.”
    In any case, about an hour into the day, the market seemed to stabilize. Some stocks you might have expected to get hit were actually rallying, though there was a decent amount of weakness scattered around. But other than GE’s big decline, there was no particular rhyme or reason in the early action.
    After the morning attempt at bravado, the facts as they are got the upper hand and we spent the afternoon sawtoothing lower. With about an hour to go, the market was about 2% lower. A late rally attempt fell apart and we went out on the lows, with pretty much everything weaker, though no special standouts. What’s worth noting is that a rally was attempted in GE, but it didn’t stick and the stock went out near its worst levels at about $32. (Which, interestingly enough, was GE’s low in the midst of the Bear Stearns crisis.)

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  40. buylo

    Fly: markets down on Monday??? Why do you think the G7 are meeting in DC this weekend – just a coincidence or to chit-chat about ? a) the Washington Senators (beysoballu) b) Redskins college draft (fuutabalu) c) world economy – if the US goes, the rest of world goes with it.

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  41. wow

    Thanks for posting that Fleck.

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  42. TheScareCrow

    Apparently some here have never experienced a bear market. Still riding bicycles seven years ago, huh?

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  43. AU CONTRAIR

    FLY, the contrary indicator has spoken…monday big rally lead by financials and homies with solar a close kicker.

    Flipping long for Monday.

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  44. The Fly

    Jake:

    I would never recommend such junk.

    Au Contrair:

    I will enjoy debanking you, before the year is over.

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  45. Juice

    not a chance for a big financial led rally for Monday .. zippo

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  46. Scum Bucket

    Sorry Fly, Wrong answer. They always reload for Monday. Dow up, financials up.

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  47. JakeGint

    I would never recommend such junk.

    Perish the thought. I was using the colloquial “you” as in “anybody” but more specifically, the issuer in question here.

    Are they (the word I should’ve used) actually selling that shit to retail?

    I mean, because if there was ever a plutonium issue sold on the Street, that is one, for sure.

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  48. The Fly

    Jake:

    The AMD deal will get booked.

    Also, MS is issuing a ton of structured notes. I’ll upload a few next week for view.

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  49. BOOMER

    .

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  50. Employee8

    http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/

    For those counting the waves: Intermediate wave A Nov 1406, Intermediate wave B Dec 1524, Intermediate wave C Jan 1270, ending Major wave A. Then Intermediate wave A Feb 1388, Intermediate wave B Mar 1257, and Intermediate wave C Apr 1387, ending Major wave B. The end of this last wave in April has not yet been confirmed by OEW, but it certainly appears to be breaking down. Following our 2008 projection, illustrated in the photo section. The next downtrend should take the bear market to news lows, possibly to the SPX 1170 level. This could complete an Intermediate wave A, of Major wave C. After an uptrend, Intermediate wave B, the next downtrend should put in the low for 2008 near SPX 1070. This would end the decline from the October 2007 high at 1576, and complete a 61.8% retracement of the entire 2002-2007 bull market. After that, a bullish like series of rallies should follow, retracing approximately 50%-61.8% of the entire decline. When that begins it will be time to turn bullish.

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  51. WallStreetLurker
    WallStreetLurker

    Macke would buy the dip on Armageddon. He’s a crazy coked-out bull blower.

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  52. Juice

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080411/ap_on_re_us/pothole_woes

    Back here in the good ole, infrastructure decaying USofA, we can’t afford to fix f____g potholes because we’re spending too much making them in Iraq.

    No worries though, Iraqi oil will someday soon pay for the war and potholes on the homefront.

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  53. Juice

    Jimi Rogers in Barrons:

    Light-Years Ahead of the Crowd: Interview With James B. Rogers, Private Investor
    By LAWRENCE C. STRAUSS

    The longtime investor and author, whose books include Investment Biker and Adventure Capitalist, also has a new address: Singapore. Rogers recently moved his family to the island state from New York because he wants his young daughters to learn to speak fluent Chinese, which will be crucial in this century, he says.

    “We have seen all this before — bubbles, panics, collapses. And yet, somehow, the world adapts.” — Jim Rogers
    It fits that Rogers, a former member of the Barron’s Roundtable and, with George Soros, co-founder of the Quantum Fund in the 1970s, looks far afield for investment opportunities, both long and short. He remains bullish on commodities but has sold many of his emerging-market holdings. Rogers, 65, doesn’t run others’ money these days, though an index he developed in the late 1990s, the Rogers International Commodities Index, has been licensed to some funds. Its cumulative return, from inception in 1998 through the end of March, was more than 380%, versus about 38% for the S&P 500.

    In a recent conversation with Barron’s, Rogers had no shortage of strong opinions on topics ranging from regulation of the financial markets to China’s future.

    Barron’s: You’ve set up house in Singapore. Why the big move?

    Rogers: I wanted to move to a Chinese-speaking city because we have a 4-year-old daughter who speaks Chinese. I want to make sure she continues to speak Chinese. We now have another daughter, 4 weeks old, and we want both of them to grow up speaking Chinese fluently. If I’m right, the best skill I can give them is to be completely fluent in Mandarin.

    Why not live in China?

    The pollution is so horrible and, at least in the cities where we wanted to live, we just couldn’t bring ourselves to move there. Singapore is a terrific place. They don’t speak as much Chinese here as we would like, but they speak plenty of it.

    Why are you so bullish on China?

    China is going to be the next great country. The 19th century was the century of the U.K. The 20th century was the century of the U.S. The 21st century is going to be the century of China. Even if I’m wrong, there are 1.5 billion people who speak Chinese every day, so it’s not as if our daughter is learning Danish. Even if she winds up working in a Chinese restaurant, she is going to be the maitre d’ — not the dish washer.

    What else intrigues you about China?

    China was in decline for 300 years and then around 1978 Deng Xiaoping said, “OK, let’s find something new.” He reintroduced entrepreneurship and capitalism to a country that has had a long, long history of both. In China they save and invest more than 35% of their income; in America we save less than 2%. The Chinese work from dawn to dusk. When they come to work, they don’t say, “How many holidays do I get?” They want to live like we do in America and they are willing to work hard, save and invest for the future.

    What about investment opportunities in China?

    Perhaps the safest investment is the renminbi, the Chinese currency. I don’t see how the renminbi should not go up against the dollar, anyway, for the next several decades. Commodities, of course, are a great way to invest in China. If you have nickel, they will take you to dinner, pay for dinner and pay you on time. They have to buy commodities. And there are some industries in China that are going to do well, no matter what happens to the world economy — water treatment, for instance. China has a horrible water problem that it is doing something about.

    What other industries in China look interesting?

    Agriculture. Mao Zedong [who ruled China from 1949 until his death in 1976] totally ruined agriculture. China now is spending huge amounts of money trying to rebuild agriculture. The same goes for power generation. Another growing industry is tourism; the Chinese have not been able to travel for some 300 years, for a variety of reasons. But now the government is making it much easier to get passports, and they are encouraging travel.

    Switching to your old home, what are your thoughts on the U.S. credit crunch?

    We had the worst credit bubble ever in American history, perhaps world history. I can’t remember anytime in history when people were able to buy a house with no money down — sometimes with no income. You don’t clean out a bubble like that in six months to a year. I’ve been short the U.S. investment banks by using the Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index [ticker: XBD], an exchange traded fund with exposure to many of those firms. I’ve also been short Citigroup [C] and Fannie Mae [FNM]. I’ll short some more if we get nice rallies in any of them. I am still short some of the U.S. homebuilders like Lennar [LEN].

    Anything you like?

    The airlines, mainly international airlines like Lufthansa [DLAKY], Austrian Airlines [AUA.Austria], SAS [SAS.Sweden], Iberia [IBLA.Spain], Japan Airlines [JALSY] and all the Chinese airlines. I fly a lot and see that the planes are filling up and that the fares are going up. I also realized that Boeing [BA] and Airbus are sold out and that you can’t get a new plane for five to seven years. Rising oil prices are a problem, but the airlines can pass on the cost increases.

    You have been quoted as saying you don’t think bailouts of troubled companies are a good idea. Is that still your view?

    Yes, it is. If the government had not bailed out the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998, I don’t think we would have some of the problems we have now. Investment banks have been going bankrupt for hundreds of years. It is not the first time something like Bear Stearns [BSC] has happened and the world has always survived.

    If you had a few investment bankers go broke in 1998 or after the dot-com bust — or if they lost hundreds of millions of dollars — they probably would have had a different approach to their balance sheets. But since relatively few people got hurt with Long-Term Capital Management, in a few months everybody had forgotten the lessons that should have been learned about leverage or crazy products or crazy approaches. The government has been intervening to save all its friends for a decade or so rather than letting the market work properly.

    But isn’t it so that a Bear Stearns bankruptcy would have devastated the financial system?

    If the system is so fragile that the fifth-largest investment bank can bring it all down, then you better go ahead and have the problems now. What if three or five years from now it is the largest investment bank that fails or the largest five or six banks that fail? Then there will be a disaster.

    As an investor, you often allude to the importance of understanding history.

    History will teach you that, first, we have seen all of this before, whether it’s bubbles or panics or collapses. And yet, somehow, the world adapts. It also shows that whatever we are seeing today is not going to be true in 10 years, as was the case with the bubble in technology stocks in the late 1990s. As an investor, it’s crucial to figure out what is going to change.

    Are we still in the early stages of a bull market for commodities?

    I wouldn’t say it’s early; the commodities bull market started in early 1999. There are going to be corrections — and big ones — along the way. That’s true for every bull market.

    But nobody has brought on any new supply of anything in the past 25 or 30 years. The last gigantic oil field was discovered in the 1960s. The number of acres devoted to wheat farming has been declining for more than 30 years. Food inventories are the lowest they’ve been in 60 years.

    Our colleague Gene Epstein argued in a recent Barron’s cover story that there is a huge speculative element pushing up commodities prices.

    But where is the oil coming from that’s going to drive down prices and keep them down? We are going to have corrections, as was the case in 2001 after 9/11. Is there speculation in commodities? Of course. Whenever you have a bull market, it draws money. If the fundamentals are right, investors make money and they want to make more. But people were buying commodities for 20 years in the 1980s and 1990s and nothing happened, because the fundamentals weren’t right yet. Now that the fundamentals are right, more money is going into commodities. It will end in a bubble and hysteria. But in 2018, or whenever this bubble finally starts to peak, if I’m lucky you will call me up and I’ll say it’s time to sell commodities.

    So you expect commodities prices to keep running up.

    Absolutely. Look, if somebody discovers a gigantic oil field in Chicago or Berlin, then we will maybe have to start reassessing. But remember that all the great oil fields are in decline, including those in Alaska, Mexico and the North Sea. And I’m not just talking about oil. You can’t go into your garage, snap your fingers and bring a new zinc mine to market. It takes on average 10 years to bring on any new mine.

    Why have you sold most of your emerging market holdings?

    Take Africa as an example. It’s a natural- resource-based economy, so a huge fortune is going to be made there in the next 10 years. Many countries will look a lot better because they do have lots of natural resources.

    Having said that, right now there are probably 15,000 MBAs on airplanes flying around the world looking for emerging markets, some of which are now called frontier markets. I’ve been investing in these markets for many years and all of a sudden they have a name. That’s why I have sold all my emerging markets except China and Taiwan.

    But I hope I’m smart enough that if and when there is a big correction, I’ll be able to buy back some of those holdings.

    You’ve been bearish on the dollar for some time — a good call. What do you have against the greenback?

    I continue to be skeptical about the dollar, though I’m not selling dollars at the moment because there are too many bears, including me. I hate to say it but the U.S. dollar is a terribly flawed currency. It seems that the people in Washington are trying to debase the currency. The Fed has been printing money.

    When interest rates start rising again in the U.S., won’t that strengthen the dollar?

    There will be rallies along the way. For every currency that’s been under pressure throughout history, that’s one of the tools that’s used eventually. That causes a rally whenever they do it, but eventually it is just another central bank, or another government, trying to protect itself. Experience tells me that when this scenario occurs, let the rally come and sell more dollars.

    In some ways a weaker dollar helps the U.S. economy, making exports cheaper. What’s driving the dollar lower?

    As recently as 1987 the U.S. was a creditor nation. We are now the largest debtor nation the world has ever seen. We owe trillions. That’s with a “t.” The real problem is that that our foreign debt is increasing at a rate of $1 trillion every 15 months. You can do the arithmetic.

    We will. Thanks, Jim.

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  54. “Jeemy” Rogers is an idiot. Never trust one who wears a bowtie. Listen to him – he believes that speaking Chinese is the best “skill” that his daughters could have – that is idiotic, no? John Paulson made 3 to 4 billion last year shorting subprime – where was “Jeeemy”? After all, “Jeemy” knows everything, no?

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  55. JakeGint

    Rogers knows his “space” — which is commodities, and to some extent, currencies. This doesn’t mean he’s going to be a space alien magician shorting the exact correct asset class at the exact correct minute. But he’s making money, and will continue to do so.

    What bothers me a little about Bruce’s Barron’s article is that on CNBC a couple of weeks back, Rogers said that he “couldn’t” short individual stocks for some regulatory reason and that he was only shorting sectors through ETF’s. In the above interview, however, he mentions being short (and long) specific stocks.

    Odd.

    No?

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