In order for the bulls to validate a legitimate run in the indices, crude oil must come down. Right here @$105, I like my chances betting on it going lower. In doing so, effectively, I am quasi hedging against my short positions.
If crude dumps out, bet your bottom dollar there will be a spike in retail and other consumer discretionary names. Now, I do not believe retail should run, if crude dumps out. However, knowing the low grade gene pool of many money managers, I can tell you, they will buy equities and send stocks higher.
Much of the bull case is reliant upon a massive drop in commodity prices. So, in my opinion, it makes sense to be short banks, commercial Re, retail and tech, while simultaneously betting against crude and commodities, knowing the bulls want them lower.
In layman’s terms, I want to have my cake and eat it. Then, I want to walk over to the gentleman with the mustache, punch it off, and take his cake and eat it too.
Right now, my favorite positions are [[SMN]], [[SRS]], [[DGP]], [[SKF]], [[DUG]], [[DCR]], [[REW]], [[RIG]], [[FXY]], short [[MON]], short [[WM]], short [[LEH]], short [[MS]], short [[POT]] and short [[FED]].
UPDATE:
| LEH Lehman Brothers may lose 24 bln yen due to fake Marubeni documents, according to Nikkei – DJ (39.21 +0.50) -Update- | |
| DJ reports the co now stands to lose some Y24 bln as a result of a investment deal in Japan that involved forged documents said to be from Marubeni, The Nikkei reported in its Saturday morning edition. Senior officials at Asclepius, a wholly owned unit of LTT Bio-Pharma, solicited funds from investors, according to sources familiar with the matter. |
My boy is getting cute, again.
————-
Kass: Going Long Into Quarter-End
By Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver Contributor
3/28/2008 12:29 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Doug Kass
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These blog posts originally appeared on RealMoney Silver on March 28.
Quarter-End Markups Expected
7:16 a.m. EDT
“If you are going to walk on thin ice, you might as well dance.”
— Author unknown
Monday’s close will mark the end of 2008’s first quarter.
The S&P 500 has declined by about 9.7% year to date. March’s results, despite the wild ride of volatility, are essentially flat.
I fully expect that the bias over the next two days will be higher as investors try their best to salvage something out of a dismal period. In the absence of more negative news over the weekend, I would not be surprised if equities rise by 1% to 3% over the course of Friday’s and Monday’s sessions.
“Illusions commend themselves to us because they save us pain and allow us to enjoy pleasure instead. We must therefore accept it without complaint when they sometimes collide with a bit of reality against which they are dashed to pieces.”
— Sigmund Freud
Accordingly, my short-term market outlook has gone from slightly bullish to slightly constructive, with the full expectation of lowering it back down by Tuesday.
Hey Fly, I am just a dumb piker that is wondering if you could remind me of that company that you listed here about 8 weeks ago. It is a company that insures bank owned properties (foreclosures). I think it started with an A.
Speaking of dumping, you know it’s bad when CNN endorses dumpster diving: http://www.cnn.com/2008/LIVING/wayoflife/03/27/free.commerce/?iref=hpmostpop
Yes, please. I’d like more articles about dumpsters; less about opportunities for buying vacation homes. Let’s scare the B. Jeebus out of everybody.
If you’re negative on the price rude crude, may I suggest some coal shorts? FCL BTU ACI
besides being ‘overvalued’, coal is so 1800’s
Sorry, I’m dumb, but how does a drop in commodities correllate with shorting real estate? Thanks
AIZ sells property insurance to banks.
I will short the shit out of coal, if the Democrats gain the polls. They fucking hate coal.
No such thing as “clean coal.”
Pat:
It doesn’t. My general point is to short what the bulls want lower, while shorting what generally sucks.
Poor LEH, fell for the old fake Marubeni documents in the tailpipe trick:
LEH Lehman Brothers may lose 24 bln yen due to fake Marubeni documents, according to Nikkei – DJ (39.21 +0.50) -Update-
DJ reports the co now stands to lose some Y24 bln as a result of a investment deal in Japan that involved forged documents said to be from Marubeni, The Nikkei reported in its Saturday morning edition. Senior officials at Asclepius, a wholly owned unit of LTT Bio-Pharma, solicited funds from investors, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Doesn’t it make sense to be long TSO or VLO (ala refiners) if oil is going lower too?
“fake Marubeni documents”
Can somebody please put this in LayMans terms…
24B Yen? That’s like, what, $1,000?
Grazi.
Anyone here care to opine on entering RRPIX at 17?
Fly,
I think the bulls had their chance last week and this week with the dump in the commodities and the strength in the dollar, however short those were, to make their case. They blew it and now they only have the end of quarter to hold on to and they are barely managing that. I say we get another leg down before we go up. It’s the bears turn again.
24B Yen = $241,290,919.00
Argghh. That spelling of Moustache just looks so wrong.
$250 million USD ain’t so much these days. Where are the REAL losses ?
The last time I saw a fake Marubeni document was on the CBS news when Dan Rather was talking about Prez GW’s National Guard Service.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/video/cramermarketupdates/10409765.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA#10409765
Cramer says don’t buy LEH
Fly — I don’t think the consumer can keep up even if gas prices fall. You still need a job to afford stuff… default rates rising, credit contracting, NPAs up, UER rising, and home equity plummeting = consumer contraction regardless of gas prices.
AssHat of the week has to be Dick Bove.
He’s my nominee for triple gold-star award winning analyst of the week for giving such a tasty re-entry point to short the financials.
wow, I have some XLF 27 Puts I bought that day. Almost a triple as of right now. I feel bad for all the small ma and pa’s that bought into him, not the big boys though.
Somethings up with YHOO. Buying April 30 calls here. Maybe msft/yhoo done deal.
dick bove hahahaha. guarantee he’s running a glory hole in the basement of trinity church.
setting up for uncertainty? Are you sure about that?
Sure enough about your uncertainty to have doubts about your confidence?
So you’re certain that you have doubt…
Alright people I knew this day would come… Flys officially lost it.
Ah-ha.
The title is deliberate.
Fly is attempting to be his own quant fund.
Long here, against short there – regress to mean with a few percentage points = Profit