iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,579 Blog Posts

Box That Fucker In

The bears are running up commodity prices, in order to “box in” Bernanke, with his liberal rate cutting ways. That’s my latest conspiracy theory.

Look, the bear case is still alive and well. After all, the recession will be spear headed by the weak/beaten consumer, not the banks. The prospect of insolvency just scares people. But, even if they’re solvent, that doesn’t mean the market and the economy will recover.

Not at all.

The Fed is sacrificing the consumer on the alter of lower rates, in order to save a few bad banks.

Before the next leg down, I believe the bulls will give it the ol’ college try for a breakout. However, like past attempts, they will fail and eventually get rolled on by an army of 10 million seething bears.

The amateur trade is to heavily sell short here. It’s a classic trap.

After huge up days, there is always a trickle effect, as idle cash rushes back into the market and over zealous short sellers try to get flat.

Once again, wait for the market to move higher again, before re-initiating some obscene short positions.

On the top of my list is [[SMN]], [[FXP]], [[SKF]], [[SRS]] and short [[POT]], [[FED]].

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30 comments

  1. Elliot Spitzer

    I’m all for “obscene positions,” FWIW.

    -ES

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  2. Juice

    not that you (anyone) cares … but I agree

    If we trade off tomorrow, I suggest taking out a lotto riverboat gambling flier, on big upside come Friday.

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  3. seller

    the way i look at it, the market has to reach a higher level to bring back size short sellers. most of the shorts were squeezed out yesterday and early today. i think it’s safe to go short before the fed meeting b/c its unlikely they drop 75 in light of whatever that acronym bailout is called. btw, 28-days will turn into long term funding.

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  4. JoeyBagOfTricks

    Jim Rogers says Bernanke should resign.

    In all seriousness, whether he is right or wrong, rich or poor, if Jim Rogers had a mustache I would punch it off with brass knuckles. Since he does not, I will punch off his bowtie with a gold bullion bar secured to the end of a 4×4 douglas fir post.

    I will then steal his wallet and buy gold, fucker.

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  5. haileris

    seller: you forget that if they do a 0.25 or .50 along with another $200 Billion money laundering, for some kind of 2-for-1 deal, the banks are going to eat that shit up.

    I’m in some gold (not too much, as I do agree a lower rate cut may tamp any gold frenzy later), however whatever the fed does, commodities prices For The Win.

    Conspiracy Theory trading (working great so far) says the market doesn’t rally too hard, in order to justify a fat rate cut/money-laundering for the banks. Also my time machine disagrees with Fly’s (Many Worlds Interpretation, eh?) and says we go lower in the morning.

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  6. Mas is back

    Mas pulled a tupac..
    i read somewhere he had passed. not true…

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  7. treepart

    I won’t go long here. I’ll stay short and add if the opportunities present themselves. I’m digging DUG lately and added yesterday. Trying to run my business doesn’t allow me to stay on top of everything and got caught holding FXP and yesterday wiped out all my gains. Bought some today and got some back today though.

    With all the negative news ahead and negative surprises which are inevitable in this environment, the trend is still down. The shitstorm on the horizon might cast a pretty sunset every now and then but it will deliver misery despite the bearded efforts of shitstorm chaser Bernanke.

    At some point dividend yields on blue chips will bring back the buyers. Right now T pays 4.5%, PFE pays 6.1%, GE pays 3.7% as does DD, VZ pays 4.9%. There are a lot of solid companies paying decent yields right now which will be more enhanced as the market slides. These are companies which can survive a recession and not cut dividends.

    I’m guessing 7-8 months from now there might be a nice fall rally which carries into the new year. In the mean time I’m short.

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  8. seller

    haileris, the fed only has 760bn avail on their balance sheet and they have announced to use over 400bn of that amount thus far. they need to save some dry powder. since ben is part of the PPT, if the market is sub 12k, they’ll drop 75 or 50 and if the mkt is above that level, don’t expect more than 50. i’m reluctant to add to the shorts until after the PPT meets next week. until then, half my powder is at work

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  9. TraderRenn

    Seller… not to seem bullish because I’m not – I just wanted to point out that the FED has unlimited dry powder (they can print money). It only dilutes the dollar which messes with all of us. Sadly we will pay for this mess one way or the other.

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  10. JakeGint

    Treepart, tell us the truth.

    You’re an Ent, aren’t you?

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  11. treepart

    What’s an Ent?

    Is it like a prikfor

    As in:

    Bob: That looks like a pirkfor
    Jim: Say Bob, what’s a prikfor?
    Bob: Well, I use mine to piss and to please my wife.

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  12. JakeGint

    J.R.R. Tolkien characters.

    The most famous of them was called “Treebeard.”

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  13. jm

    Fly…you rock…like to know how many years you’ve been in this game. Don’t tell me 5-10 years…or I’ll bail out of this site

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  14. Fly

    JM – been trading for 27 months now.

    Don’t let the door hit you on the way out. And don’t bother calling. Goatfucker.

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  15. A, Nominus

    Jim Cramer, who is not admired by the “FLY” says that the FED should buy $50 billion in mortgages from Fannie and Freddie. This would help unclog the credit conduits. It would be worth $500 billion to the economy, so says Cramer.

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  16. Q4

    I’m going for the “amateur trader” of the year award. I’m ALL SHORT heavy. For an amateur trader, I’m swift and nimble. For better or worse, I also have a high tolerance for risk. I’m on the frontline in berserker mode. Get the fuck out of the way.

    Run Through the Jungle

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  17. TraderCaddy

    Fly has done good for trading only 27 months. Good luck on the SATs and have a good time at your prom.

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  18. JakeGint

    That would explain the rap music and the baggy jeans at least.

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  19. JakeGint

    Another example of overzealous asshattery.

    I tell you this and my brother’s a po-lice — I would go “Arnold in Terminator I” on the police station that pulled this scheiss with my wife and kid.

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  20. The Fly

    Fuck that impostor Fly.

    The real Fly has been trading for 15 years. However, I do not request that any of you goatfuckers read my site.

    Frankly, most of you are too stupid to read the work of genius.

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  21. anonymous

    Cramer in tears over Spitzer on the Today show.

    http://www.wjno.com/cc-common/news/sections/newsarticle.html?feed=244038&article=3398347

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  22. gappingandyapping
    gappingandyapping

    Anon: I was about to post that shit. Loving it. By the way I would have fucked that bitch Kristen like brush a ape myself she is hot, hell Cramer is just pissed cause he can’t fuck her anymore. Jimmy C. Client #10

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  23. wow

    “TOKYO, March 13 (Reuters) – Japanese government bond futures hit a fresh 2-½ year high on Thursday, following a rise in U.S. Treasuries overnight on growing doubts about whether the Federal Reserve’s latest steps will help ease credit market strains.”

    “The U.S. currency hit a 12-year low against the yen , falling below 101.00 yen.”

    Well, that great mood lasted a long time. I’m so fucking happy the karma police are shutting the f’ing doors on the carry trade. shuffle shuffle shuffle, let’s just do as many “creative” things as we can, shuffle shuffle shuffle.

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  24. JakeGint

    As I’ve mentioned, the sushi dollar was trading about 82 to the Amelican when I was in bidness school in ’95. Hatfucking Japanese buddies (who were not only getting free tuition, but getting PAID to go to school by their various hatfucking chaibol banks) were living the caviar dreams lifestyles while I accumulated debt in crappy US currency.

    We got a ways, gays.

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  25. JakeGint

    Fly, looks like your alma mater is having some trouble vs. Marquette here tonight.

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  26. BOOMER

    Fly – you went to Seton Hall? My dad went there. Great school.

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  27. Olde Scratch

    Boomer, I am often frustrated with your lack of “challenge.”

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  28. BOOMER

    huh?

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  29. Olde Scratch

    You are too easily “duped,” my son.

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  30. jjmmee7733

    I’m supporting this idea all the way! I can not imagine who would disagree with it. On the whole – make posts like this more often.

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