iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,426 Blog Posts

Don’t Buy!

With our biggest mortgage insurers, [[ABK]], [[MBI]], [[MTG]], [[RDN]], on the brink of insolvency, don’t be a hero—trying to catch a bottom.

Unfortunately, the doomsday scenario of financial crisis may come to fruition, if indeed the credit agencies start doing their fucking job—by downgrading.

If you think the Fed will save you, think again. Traditionally, the market goes down, while the Fed is easing. Anyone who says differently has no fucking idea what he is talking about.

As the market hits the lows of the day, down 1.2%, we are still overvalued, compared to past declines at the onset of recession.

Remember, in 2000 the market fell by 20%, during the months of Jan-March. Thus far, we are down about 7.2%. I would not even think about buying until we are down to the tune of 13%.

NOTE: The breakdown in ag stocks is very disconcerting. However, if you are in the mood to actually make money, consider going long [[SMN]], which is heavily overweight short [[MON]].

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26 comments

  1. brian

    Market to zero now………..ya

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  2. brian

    So 11000 on DJ looks like the bottom

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  3. Juice

    Armageddon! Is that Jesus I see over yonder, on a cloud ??

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  4. brian

    No Juice he is on TV right now

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  5. theflyisajoke

    I am up 29% on the day and now 22% for the year.

    I bank coin

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  6. Cap

    I say buy the panic. There is a late day rally coming. I smell it.

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  7. wow

    Any thoughts on WaMu for a short? hasn’t given a lot back from when it spiked because of Cuntrywide. Earnings are tonight, they don’t seem like they’re going to pull a JPM and please the markets.

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  8. The Zombie

    The Fly is God
    If you don’t believe by now…

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  9. jeff

    Fly man, you holdin those inverse etf’s through the weekend with the bearded clam coming on board?

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  10. DPeezy

    DRYS up nicely today.
    Went long at the open after yesterday’s hammer candlestick.

    That’s my only bullish bet that’s paying off.

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  11. theflyisajoke

    I bought DE at 78.37 and just sold at 80.59 for another 2.8% gain in under an hour.

    I bank coin

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  12. TraderCaddy

    We will have an intra day rally when the asshole bearded one either goes to lunch or takes a dump in the men’s room. I just hope Larry Craig isn’t in the stall next to him.

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  13. The Fly

    21 banks reporting earnings today, I believe.

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  14. Woodshedder

    IFN ready to break 50 day support. I say HIT that bitch.

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  15. CubsRock

    I agree The Fly is a genius. Just imagine if he would have been a Bear Fly in out first leg down in November!

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  16. Woodshedder

    Holy Cow- XLB shares “unavailable to short.”

    Had to call the brokerage to get them.

    Must be a popular trade…

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  17. Austin

    Fly…

    …safe to assume the only stock you are long in your top 10 is CLX…or is that gone too? (top 10 holdings are now short or cash, right?)

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  18. Shorticus, Demigod of Financia
    Shorticus, Demigod of Financia

    I sense that my servant Benjamin has given the “money centre” coin changing institutions the “heads up” that he is about “ease” their pain again.

    I must remember to strike my servant for proferring false promises, again.

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  19. Woodshedder

    IFN busted through the average.

    Short at will.

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  20. wow

    Hurry up W! I need my $500 rebate check from the govt so I can short the market a bit more!

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  21. jeff

    Fly, I dig dug.

    Down with Rockefeller!

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  22. calvino

    Hey Marty McFly, u made me coin with DECK yet again. But that trade is going to stay on for a bit more into the future, non? I’m sitting on dead money again with CRM, ok geniuses, I am sure that all the CIO budgets are getting doubled this year and that everyone wants a new software rollout. And Oracle , Sybase, Softie and SAP are shit for competition – theyare not greedy fuccs who will be taking share every quarter for the next twenty years. LULU took a 7% roundrip today, the pump and dump is ending. SHLD, I want to short them because Eddie Lampert is a genius.

    Ok Jake the Gimp, too busy with men’s underwear today to spam the blog??

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  23. MJ

    Fly, awesome trading. With today’s action you should be up almost 17% ytd? First, Go to cash, put it in a term deposit, and by end of year you’ll have 20%. Second, go to some beach for the next 11 months.

    You’ve been on the ball both bull and bear. Pretty freakin amazing. Congrats.

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  24. Bionic Trader

    theflyisajoke,
    Dude, I am up 23% today and 42% YTD, or, more than you.

    I bank armored cars filled with coin.

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  25. Shorticus, Demigod of Financia
    Shorticus, Demigod of Financia

    It seems when I created my servant “Calvino” from a mixture of cow excrement and balsa shavings, I forgot to instill him with cognition.

    Pity.

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  26. gmac

    I was suprised at MON joining the fall party as well. i sold my calls on them this past MONday… i didnÊ»t think it would fall in panic selling like everyone else…

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