Earlier today I bought a basket of Gold & Silver. Let’s take a look at this for a second. Gold is still trading north of $800, but the stocks are trading as if the commodity is at $400.
My first thought is maybe the market is telling us Gold is going lower. But, on the other hand, what if this is an excellent buying opportunity?
With all the new money being printed I believe gold has plenty of upside left. As Peter Schiff says, “There’s always a headfake before a big move.”
Feel fee to list you favorite gols plays in the comment section.
Jake likes: Royal Gold, Inc. [[RGLD]] , Goldcorp Inc. (USA) [[GG]] , [[GLD]] , & Silver Wheaton Corp. (USA) [[SLW]]
I like the group as a whole, thus purchasing a basket of stocks this morning.
Note: In no way am i saying to put your whole portfolio in Gold, but i believe some of these names are worth a look.
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Shortcut with GDX
..GG..is the go to stock, good leverage on declining C$ as alot of assets in Canada, as well as lower oil and gas should help margins..in Canada we have HGU which is 2x leverage of gold mining index..GG,ABX etc
Have a truckload of GG Jan 09 32.50 calls…
http://www.247wallst.com/2008/02/leveraged-gold.html
The problem with gold stocks is we probably won’t be in an inflationary period for a while. This move by the government is or should be deflationary because the financial institutions are being required to reduce the asset side of their balance sheet.
In addition, the various non-bank financial institutions must also de-leverage.
Money is not being created here. The government is borrowing the money and using it to acquire stock. While it is true the banks, because of fractional reserve, may be able to expand their balance sheet, I doubt such action would be viewed favorably by the stock holders.
Good Luck
Good point.
But, the point I’m making is that the stocks have been beat to shit, yet gold remains stable.
IMO, It’s time to pick at these names.
Like a lot of names here especially the juniors which have been beat up bad.
Currently holding SLW, SLV, JAG, MVG, AUY, and BCEKF.
glad to have you on board the gold train … choo-chew!!
any will do but better to have the highest % of gold & silver & less base metals
spec – gss
nem has had good earnings lately
AUY
KGC
in addition to your names
the S African miners have acted well – GFI HMY AU
AU was Schiff’s favorite, and look at it the last few days.
Have a truckload of GG Jan 09 32.50 calls
Interesting, so do I.
(And your moniker is very remniscent of my “Weimer site” — I may have to check if my schizoid medicine is up to level…)
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me
RC (per pay attention’s comments)as gold is generally a flight to safety and the international bailout has seemingly saved the day ,at least for now, won’t gold give way as the market stabilizes, modest deflation occurs, and the market will go bargin shopping?
Yes, gold does appear to have some downside, especially if it breaks 820.
Im not saying go crazy and put your whole portfolio in gold. All i’m saying is that some of these stocks are cheap and i want to build positions in a few names.
you kick ass by the way. always read your blog for ideas and such.
Im not saying go crazy and put your whole portfolio in gold.
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No…. no!
Just, like… 75%.
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After all, we will need to set aside some “grenade money.”
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Does anyone hear know of, or like GLW? Same business model as SLW except only started last year.
sman7,
GLW is Frank Giustra, Telfer and same crew behind Wheaton River..same model…there will be a big overhang of stock from a PP they did a few months ago, 4 month hold should be up and those shares will hit market..PP was at 50c with half warrant at 80c…i was long SLW and sold in the $1.15 to $1.40 range
I like the Central Fund of Canada (CEF) (made a nice profit on the last spike)
Also, the Gold Trust of Canada (GTU)
Own GLD as well. And the inverse DGP which I’m not liking too much. Did better with CEF.
Canadians and gold just seem to go together.
Update: Stocks are for asshats, even gold stocks.
Thanks VIZ,
I’m looking into putting some money in GLD, SLW and GG. SLW and GG also have warrants if you want to lever up.
Anyone looking at WFR?
Canada sports gold.
Bought GG here, setting stop at today’s low = 24.40. Forming a nice base around 24.00. Let’s do this.
GG back on track, thanks for giving it your blessing Gio.
LoL… not sure if that’ll be good enough. i expect GG’s track to be a bumpy one, so gotta hold on tight for the ride.
I AM CANADIAN! Yes, lately we have been commodity lovers. But I really like the precious metal theme. Just to play the anti-USD.
What are your thoughts on oil and agriculture? Will oil and POT fall with the global slowdown?
A couple months ago, people were saying the oil and agriculture was a good hedge against the falling dollar. I think that story has died.
Ragin-
I have a stock for you to check out- NXTM
NxStage Medical, Inc. (NxStage) is a medical device company that develops, manufactures and markets systems for the treatment of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and acute kidney failure. The Company’s primary product, the NxStage System One, is a small, portable hemodialysis system designed to provide physicians and patients improved flexibility in the way hemodialysis therapy is prescribed and delivered. The System One is suited for home hemodialysis and more frequent, or daily, dialysis. The System One is cleared by the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for home hemodialysis, as well as hospital and clinic-based dialysis. The Company also sells needles and blood tubing sets primarily to dialysis clinics for the treatment of ESRD. As of December 31, 2007, 115 hospitals were using the System One to deliver acute kidney failure and fluid overload therapy. In October 2007, the Company completed its acquisition of Medisystems Corporation and certain affiliated entities
Its been public for 3 years or so. They have a good relationship with Baxter and Davita. A good friend of mine has been with them for a few years now, and said a lot of exciting things are happening. He told me now is the time to get in and hold it for a while.
Just my 2 cents-intresred in what you think?
-Ass Napkin Mike
If gold was falling the same way the other commodities are since “the market is saved” here’s my question…
Why is it that they’re not down near as much as the market is up?
That’s what I’m saying.
Ragin,
One of our listeners suggested I get in touch with you to do a phone interview about your trading style and philosophy for our site.
It takes just about 20 minutes over the phone.
Would be available sometime this week?
Best,
Tim Bourquin
http://www.TraderInterviews.com
one sentiment I’ve heard: gold miners used to be trading proxies for gold (which was hard to trade except for COMEX futures). lately with GLD that’s not the case.
I agree, the miners should come up in price. but I’ve seen them get dogged over the last year. you have to check what each company is doing with its hedging position and what’s its book looks like. too many moving parts for me.
GLD price is driven by gold spot price which is driven by futures. gold price is heavily emotional and there isn’t a direct correlation with inflation. it does hold purchase power, but its more of a predictor of inflation, not an actual protection against it.
COMEX is known to be easily manipulated (because its relatively small) and open interest has been steadily decreasing. dan norcini thinks its because people are exiting the futures market because they don’t like the manipulation any more.
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/6639_October1408Gold1230pmCDT.pdf
RC- No interviews until you check out the royalty payment schedule as well as sign an exclusive distribution agreement.
Ha Ha.
No interviews unless they eat a huge portion of Nutria stew.
Gold Futures spiking
Ragin about time to get back into V here.
Watch for CHK gap fill at $16.50 or so. I think it will be “varrah niiiiiice.”
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Hey Jake, question : where do you think NOV is heading ?
agreed Gap.
CHK will be sold to me under 17. Loaded up on V at 51.
SLW down today. Anyone have any ideas of what to expect for the Nov 3rd earnings announcement?
Just a bunch of fucking around happening with GG today… Ragin’ what is your timeline?
I have my stop placed right below 23.75
Aside from holding the metal itself or the ETF (GLD), gold stocks are just another paper asset to get the homo hammer of death in the current deflationary environment … if you are holding long term (12-18 mos) for the impending inflation or anarchy fine but if so, then why not wait for better prices after the final leg down has been made.
Hey Jake, question : where do you think NOV is heading ?
Hells if I know. I put in a “crazy in the head” bid at $24.55 today just to see if I could swing down and catch it…. and damned if it didn’t run right through that price.
NOV is cheeeeeeap here, but shoot, you know what they say about the market remaining irrational….
Jake, how are those options treating you? The sight of the gold chart this morning was vomit inducing.