OA Buy: NOV

I picked up shares of NOV just above $69 today.

More later,

OA

This is without a doubt, the quietest 1.5% rally in the Russell we’ve had all year.

If you’ve gotten to the point where you don’t really care what the market has do, that may be a indicator in itself.

I’ve got my eye on energy here, ERX, NOV, SLB, OXY, CVX are all at the top of my lists.

If you go low beta, my favorites are IBM, DE, FCX.

If you are still looking at high beta, CYBR, AWAY, TRUE and LOCO.

OA

The best thing for the market this week is for it to slow down. Prices can rise or fall, but the manner in which they do is important this week. In these situations, that’s the best way to determine selling exhaustion.

I am forced to clean up some portfolio trash this week. By doing so it will create some opportunities for me to realign with the market with a few longer term opportunities that have set up here. We’ve hit on a few of these ideas recently, which include various energy names.

If we get productive news on the earnings front, the most important outcome of this is to see stock buybacks. I think that could be a game changer here in the next few weeks.

More later,

OA

I just broke out of a meeting with some of the brightest financial minds in the ATL, only to run to a computer terminal and blog.

Because of my ill-timed departure from my traditional routine, I am planning a special event for members of After Hours with Option Addict, as I will not be able to attend After Hours with Option Addict after the close today. In lieu of today’s session, join me tomorrow morning at 9 AM ET for Breakfast with the Option Addict.

I want to catch up and review an overall market analysis, game plan and procedures for the weeks to come. We’ll put together a watchlist (long/short) and I will record this session for you if you are unable to wake up tomorrow morning after this week’s shit show.

If you are in need of anything in the meantime, you can email me. Until then, I will see you guys in the morning. Thank you for your patience.

I had to leave my normal daily routine to catch a flight to Georgia. I’m in town to meet with a hedge fund out this way, but will still make time to meet my appointments with you guys tomorrow.

In regards to the markets, if you’ve been following our discussions along the way there are a multitude of things we follow to measure pullbacks versus tops. Volatility is not something that you can necessarily predict, unless you can see certain market deterioration into higher price swings like in 2011 or 2007. This has been something we intentionally follow at all times, regardless of market direction, and something that is elevated to a level of concern as of now.

Similar to 2011, 2007 and 2000 tops volatility elevated at first into market weakness, but then continued to rise into market strength. In other words, in each of these situations, there was a bounce that reset the environment.

While I am obviously not on the right side of recent weakness, one thing you cannot ignore is that the stocks we are watching/trading are telling a not so scary story. You cannot argue this, for they are not following the market down in recent weeks. Not even close. They’ll be the ones you can’t help but notice on a day that the market finds a bid.

As of tonight, my market oversold indicator has long term and intermediate term timeframes drowned in oversold territory, and the short term signal only 8 basis points away from completing a signal that we’ve only seen at major market bottoms. Any weakness tomorrow will seal it for you, ahead of the weekend.

It’s been a difficult stretch lately, as gains from the last couple months have been swallowed up by this full blown market liquidation. Hindsight doesn’t help me much here, so I am only focused on looking ahead. If history serves as a template, we’ll have movement up ahead that will help us make important adjustments as we head into the end of the year.

Stay safe out there, and stop being such an asshole.

OA

I’ve stuck to my word all year that this is 1998. In fact, I have pointed out several different indicators and extremes that all referenced 1998 as part of my macro analysis.

ON THIS DAY IN HISTORY, October 9th, 1998…

The Russell 2000 hit its cycle low, before setting the table for a “Last of the Mohicans” style run on the scalpless heads of shortsellers.

While various analogues run amuck today, I’m still looking ok on this one.

OA

FOR MY After Hours with Option Addict PEEPS – I will be out of the office later today, and possibly tomorrow. Therefore, if you have time during the day, I will be hosting a quick discussion about the markets at noon ET. The login details are on the After Hours with Option Addict site.