I’ve stuck to my word all year that this is 1998. In fact, I have pointed out several different indicators and extremes that all referenced 1998 as part of my macro analysis.
ON THIS DAY IN HISTORY, October 9th, 1998…
The Russell 2000 hit its cycle low, before setting the table for a “Last of the Mohicans” style run on the scalpless heads of shortsellers.
While various analogues run amuck today, I’m still looking ok on this one.
OA
FOR MY After Hours with Option Addict PEEPS – I will be out of the office later today, and possibly tomorrow. Therefore, if you have time during the day, I will be hosting a quick discussion about the markets at noon ET. The login details are on the After Hours with Option Addict site.
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Jeff the market is down 115 yet I’m up 2% today. This move happened in the last hour. Unreal!
1998 is better than the Fly’s 2000, but not as good as Prince’s “Party like it’s 1999”.
No Fed bailout of Mega hedge funds this go round. I remember the Greenspan announcement day well – ugly morning, unbelievable rip in the afternoon and it was off to the races until 2000.
was bored.
just picked up a few GOOGL 585 YOLOs @0.70
i wish i got bored 15 minutes later, and not taken this trade. 🙂
Short strangle the EXEL $1.50’s. The gift that keeps giving 🙂
You stupid shit.
That strategy is the dumbest trade in the world. Leave it alone.
Pibb you are like the BUY NUGT guy.
OA,
I have been making money on the trade. If you take the time to look, you would see that the specialist has it pinned a penny either way of 1.50…for weeks. As long as he keeps it pinned, I make more money. Keep it on your radar and you’ll see what I’m talking about. Up 70% so far! Not too shabby
But when the specialist lets it go, you are wholeheartedly screwed. You will lose your house, and make payments to your broker for the rest of your days.
That’s just it though…if you know the Specialist isn;t going to let it go anytime soon, you’re golden. Trend is firmly in place for EXEL. If it aint broke, don’t fix it. Just take a look at it today. Bingo.
As an added bonus, the daily, weekly and monthly charts are about as bearish as can be with no signs of turning anytime soon. I’ve made quite a bit of $$ on shorting EXEL for nearly two years in and out! The PPS isn’t going anywhere but pinned to down. Short strangle down here is working well.
Buy TBT here and ride the rotation wave out of fixed income
Agree completely… looks like the last right shoulder is being put in intra-day right now…
Scary.
Simply impossible to trade out there…
sure, if you have one way of trading
I am glad THIS is the bottom!
starter in STZ Nov $92.5 calls here
This market is evil.
imho, none of the equity index charts look like the 1998 one where the arrow is pointing. SPY/QQQ/DIA is not that deep of a drop yet, and IWM is a rounding top shape atm.
So maybe it’s a bottom (or not), but I don’t see the correspondence between charts.
I marked the date, not the action. The action we’ve monitored is not the price itself, but the extremes.
I picked up JDST again this morning, as well as CYBR, LOCO and TTM – all shares
Who needs Bush Gardens for Roller Coasters when you have Wall St
Got out of my MA puts at .79. 83% two day gain. 1/2 week pay.
If this isn’t the bottom this is the dip buyers grave.
bought IMPV and REGN, but as the good man advised, keep a tight leash if you must to minimize losses.
Hi OA, time to add FSLR here ? or wait ?
Thanks.
I believe his last words on that were, if FSLR breaks 61 take it off your radar.
E N E R G Y is getting dismantled. You can afford to be patient if you like the idea.
Goldman said earlier today you could buy it at $40.
So how about your holdings? Did you sell or ride down to $40 ish ( I believe that is your cost base ) ?
I own from $40. I think it goes higher.
Thanks !
OA strategy vs The Bears calling a top
http://youtu.be/PD5Imb7vWSc
I guess we all lose our ovaries since OAs bet is a loss
You need to come to the Vegas event and stay in the men’s room giving suck-J’s to the members when they take bathroom breaks. I want someone to ask me if I’ve been to the Bchu stall yet.
LOL
Bchu you buy puts on NMBL yet?? I need you to bottom that thing already.
Fuck you. You are the laughing stock of this board. At least I am contributing here.
Have a nice long weekend Jeff, see you Tuesday.
I missed the noon webinar. Will the recording be posted on the site?
Most of my positions are still good to go; not looking horrible at all
BLOX
TKMR
BABA
MJNA
XNET
APT
GOMO
duuuude…bchu you are like the family circus timmy olyohant talks about in “GO”..if you dont know what im talking about….go watch the clip…
ahh.. I love it. All this hate and anger coming out so much more on a bloody red day. bring it.
We go up from here tho!
wow, i was being sarcatic but i guess its holding true. small reversal so far
Chub welcome back, bchu was getting annoying.
good luck on ur day trades
I can’t wait for the day you lose your account. The amazing thing is, most idiots eventually acknowledge that they’re braindead. One morning while shaving they look in the mirror and say, “I’m as dumb as a fucking PVC pipe but, heck, I’m going to make it in life anyway. I’ll find a way.” Not you. You look in that mirror every day and say, “TODAY, Bchu. TODAY is the day I sit at the cool kid table.” And then it’s upside down in the toilet stall getting teabagged by a guy named Biff again by lunch.
OA, last night in AHWOA i did say 300 point Market. It was put in a question as to which way it would go. I guess we now know.
Not sure what you are referring to, but patting ya on the back anyway.
Thanks
getting close to some NQ support. Should be worth a shot (no position yet)
If this low holds I’m buying a boatload of NFLX
“You’re going to need a bigger boat”
granpa 2014-10-08 16:40:57
down 270 one day up 270 the next. What’s up for tomorrow? 300 which way?
Ahhh, now I see. Veeeerrrry Niiiicce
@Chiefton we gotta be oversold; this move shook out alotta hands today. Wouldn’t be surprised if we reversed in the coming hours
Could we get the Fed to re-release their minutes again?
Jeff, what is the pain trade at this point? Fly noted an indicator that would suggest a bottom on Friday. What are your thoughts?
P. S. Don’t let the trolls get to you
+1
My bottom signal is so damn close. So CLOSE
yeah, this has totally screwed with so many people and I can’t believe the bottom just drops out.
People with 401k’s probably don’t even realize they’re being bled dry yet.
Did you just say you don’t have a 401k?
Great thought Bruce.
Thanks J livermore.
Fryguy: Yeah, shitty wording. I meant people that only have 401k’s and invest automatically and maybe check their statements once a month.
Look at the sellers in TLT…It’s the Great Rotation Charlie Brown!
Long $TNA at 58.00 stop under $57. OA, why not motorboat some TNA here?
Tempting
+1+1
Bot YELP 72s and TWTR 56s expiring tomorrow. #YOLO
2014 year of the shakeout? Shake ’em out before earnings…and then ride the chase up before cashing out again.
do it! do it! pull the trigger on the longs!
explosive moves in option prices comes with chasing, in uptrends
da fuq u guys trying to call bottoms for
there will be plenty of time to make money when the setups return
everything is broken
This is probably the prudent decision… but many option traders aren’t content doing nothing or seeing account move slowly, which is why they’re option traders. Often times throwing your own emotions aside or even seeking discomfort can pay really well, but there’s a flip side to these types who can’t maintain the discipline and patience. There’s a fineline in this market between being a genius and pathologically insane.
Because, the even more explosive moves come when you call the turnaround correctly. Which, btw, is happening right now.
Do you see it Frog? It’s right there in front of your eyes…
aapl just got the biggest upgrade today and it reversed. thats a tell
we’re in the shitty months of a year when a correction can happen
I already got blown up, not doing anything til I see a turn around
r u kidding me? we’re reversing? umm…ok.
read what I said faggot
aapl reversed and its trying to go red
I think he was making fun of me. But look at the IWM intraday, 3 straigh higher lows even though QQQ and SPY made new lows. High beta growth names are also mostly down a fraction or up. I call that rotation setting up a big move higher. But, if you want, keep pressing those shorts.
its not pressing the shorts i’ve been doing, it’s just selling the rips. That’s been the easy money the last 2 weeks and i’ll stop the first time i get burned and take the loss on it one time.SPX is right at support. And we may likely bounce. And then all the “bulltards will be saying its off to the races now!!” Just to give it all back
But the market shit on your short yesterday dude. Don’t take an authoritative stance here. You are losing on the short side too.
SCRAM! You long-haired JIZZ-expert!
bought NQ 3958.75. Bottom ticked it so far no lie.
TKMR getting legs for me. Up 6%
Frog, we’re already in a correction, and based on the action in high beta growth stocks, I would content at the end of one. Granted it is still violent and choppy, we aren’t violating Wed lows
Bot some TNA aka the blood
Me too…. I may be insane
triple bottom break down? maybe the signal will trigger if we are down to 1800
what a f*ing trip! 1900 print on tomorrow?
I’m nowhere near a PC. Could someone tell me if the OA ToS oscillator printed the official oversold indicator on the RUT today?
He said very close at 1:49est. No updates since.
Ok. Thank you.
Out 1/2 +16 Gonna ride the rest of this sucker this time
yeha likewise, that 1070 spot looks good, long some TNA here too..
Lolly Lolly Lolly
…. Get your adverbs here…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dDwXHTcodNg
Lanforce, wherever you are…I am loving this pullback.
Rocking with the EXEL $1.50 options via the short strangle play. Specialist continues to pin it to the penny and has for weeks!! For those less risk adverse, employ Iron Condor strategy at same strike (more limited downside if stock pops). For now, the trend is firmly entrenched. Winship $$$$$$
dude. why do you keep copying and pasting your comments? What gives?
set and forget CHK 2016 Jan call.
easy position to manage here if your in the indices. Any new lows stop out. Small loss but the gain could be massive if we get moving.
bought GOOGL for next week, but hope to scalp it sooner than later since I’ll be on vacation.
When the pinning patterns like EXEL show up, it’s a nice opportunity to take advantage of the Specialist’s near term working of the PPS. As long as he keeps it pinned closely either side of $1.50, the short strangle / Iron Condor player is golden. Like taking candy from a baby 🙂
WTF!!!!!
Who is this “Specialist’?
reminds me of a contestant on Survivor that named himself “the Specialist”…one of the most annoying people on the show
duuuuuuuuddddeeeeeee……………..
…………..Start a blog.
Do you like KORS here?
LULU and KORS.
I’m confused Dr. Pibb…I show 5 contracts on the 1.50 put/call for EXEL at ~$0.14. Are you really on here beating your chest about a potential gain of $140?
Dr. Pibb is an algo I have a feeling. Like one of those that sends dirty messages to my email every morning. You guys get those too or is it just me?
Cricket Cricket…
I thought you timestamp all my shit? Didn’t I POST on YOUR blog on Tuesday when exactly I took off my puts?? wow. selective memory. True Bull.
Lol
Took the nominal profits I had in BABA trade and took losses on BAC calls. Looks like major liquidation – sitting this out on the sidelines…yes I’m a jackass for calling reversal and positive close but I still made some money today and nearly doubled account in the last 10 days. Good luck guys — see you in a few weeks.
#TIMESTAMP
Selling my SPY calls here for a “little” profit. fingers crossed for a big up day tomorrow to do it all over again.
this “little profit” could be what we are all looking for. Lets ramp this thing!
oops. i mean Puts. triple bottom it looks like. i’ll miss out on any flush i guess. but if it doesn’t break, i assume back up to test resistance @ 196-197
you have a profit on SPY calls? Holy shit!
that would be a miracle on a day like today
I think the chub indicator is better than bchu’s
lets hope so
I’m compiling a novel on both of them, with comments, timestamps and charts. Never seen anything like it.
Long 3 emini ES contracts right here1924.25
bought Oct calls in DATA
FILLLLLL MY TARGEEEETTT YOU BITCH
Out 1927.25 +3
with all eyes on BABA, and money having moved out of WB, is it or will it soon be maybe time to get back in? (have to watch for the higher high above 18 now) Might be the makings of discouragement phase.
My 18 month target for WB is $4
I am going to go home and tell my kids that OA is coming for their ovaries tonight!
Tell your friends and neighbors…but keep the kids out of this.
All in jest Jeff…all in jest.
Hat tip*
Hide yo wife hide yo kids
I feel like I’m on fire today! gonna enjoy it, because who knows what tomorrow will bring.
Followed Chiefton and bot more TNA
i crack up every time i see that EXEL strangle commentary. i mean really, its 2014, when was the LAST time 1 specialist controlled a 4 letter stock…..never..when was the last time a single specialist controlled anything
So true and so funny. Most of the people here don’t even know what a specialist is and this guy is preaching the “pinning” sermon.
The Iron Condor !!
If only YOU knew what I know! I’ve tracked the stock for over two years and know it quite well, thank you.
PS.
EXEL closed DEAD EVEN today. Boom. 🙂
Someone pointed this out yesterday, but it apparently didn’t get through: EXEL trades on the NASDAQ, which is an electronic exchange. There is no specialist magically “pinning” the price.
At $17 I think SUNE sees 20 before it sees 14..things are getting interesting down here for a lot of names
I hope EXEL gets acquired tonight.
I think I’ll buy them out just to see him cry.
Then again, don’t really have millions left to buy after this week’s blow up on my account.
Fly, is this what May felt like?
EXEL closed DEAD EVEN for the day. Hate all you want. Fact is, I continue to make $$$$$$$ on the trade. Boom.
BABA Oct 90’s anyone?
I still have mine
Take this stock and compare to Twtr in its first month. Crazy.
My comment from the PPT
You wrote: 9/24/2014
12:31 PM
@ $87.50
Edit | Delete
“@boyaj: My guess is that this will play out like the TWTR ipo. Trading down to flat for the first 3 or 4 weeks until people start to forget about it. I have a small position just to keep it on an active watchlist. Will likely play with calls once they become available. “
OCT18’s suffice or further out?
I have Nov 22. Thus far, the trade has done fine.
Pain trade is a gap & go tomorrow, shorts pressed in to the close, and if we gap up I’m guessing most will try to fade it…
Pain trade is a gap lower and churn until lunch.
stopped out on my TNA there at the end for a loser
I literally have another .30 before I get stopped out…lol
SOB
EXEL closed DEAD EVEN again. Not a penny up…not a penny down. Boom 🙂
Strangle short @ $1.50 strike (or Iron Condor for the less risk takers). Like taking candy from a baby.
If you’re going to spout off about your trading expertise, at least have a general clue of how the market works, Champ. People here are trying to help you, you should listen….. On second thought, never mind. I think you have it all figured out! You’ll have more money than God in no time! Like taking candy from a baby!!
I beg your pardon? I am MAKING MONEY on the trade as the options expire worthless!! Why would I need “help”?
Pain trade day 1: gap up
Pain trade day 2: gap down
Pain trade day 3: gap up
Pain trade day 4: gap down
At this pace, we’ll be in the same place by December.
I dont anticipate this back and forth 300 point action for very long.
Took profits in SPXS (+50%) and UVXY (+100%) …. Done with SPXS, No Liquidity!
RC had a great squeeze call on XONE which finished green for the second day and us still deeply oversold on a daily and weekly time frame.
Reading Fly’s thesis on oil, I agree, but this is a correction of oversupply delayed by geo political reasons and not a deflationary spiral. Is it 2011 or 2008. I vote 11 and there are some outstanding companies in that sector that are deeply oversold. Look for well capitalized and diversified companies that are oversold for the inevitable relief rally. We are a cold winter, middle Eastern conflict or a Putin away from $100.
Thanks, Jeff. You do an awesome job. Ease up trolls.
For this market, you need a banner with a radioactive sign.
Sold my TWTR calls for a small gain today.
Tomorrow is true capitulation day.
IWM to 100, QQQ to 92, SPY to 188
Get ready.
if that will happen, that will be too easy.
New lows in futures now. This is not good.
Gap down and rally Friday? I hope Fly’s indicator is correct and shorts cash in for the weekend. Mondays have been horrible over past several weeks. Let’s see if we can quit that with a turnaround tomorrow. Oil too is oversold.
hard to be a bull when the IWM weekly looks like this https://www.tradingview.com/x/JDIv1Rfj/
hard to be a bull if we close the week like this https://www.tradingview.com/x/JDIv1Rfj/
Got stopped out on the last of my NQ -3. These late day sells are really getting old and concerning.
Inside day on SPX. Did not feel like it but it was. Not bearish just extremely uncomfortable. Dow did hit a new low however. Very tricky here.
Blue Star – can you explain more on “inside day”?
Price action of day occurs within the range of the prior days low and high range. It is considered a neutral trend.
Thanks
futures are at its highs!!
who is the better trader…. bchu or chub?
neither. Chiefton is the greatest!
I was predicting for an update tomorrow but futures are not cooperating.
Dam, what a day. time to reward thyself for a brewsky.
What a great week. Bought way out of the money weekly puts in BAC on Friday at the close. Currently up a ton. You a holes that called me names are a bunch of tools.
Back in VSLR at the close today. Price Target $14
let it out seth, you tell em
Okay Billy. You keep listening to OA, and we’ll see who comes out ahead. Just like toast in the post above you.
as much as I respect OA, I think he’d be the first to tell you we haven’t been on the same page as of late. Guy writes this blog for the good of everyone on here, just don’t act like a jackass when you get one call right
Ebola cases will be popping the world over(who controls air traffic?) the perfect catalyst to take the bounce out of the tramp until it doesn’t( Center for Death&Contagion doing a federal job of it so far). Ebola stocks look shitty. LAKE wow, didnt an iBankCoin blogger recommend it? When oil catches a bid it won’t be of demand, more likely strife, not going to help the indices, just commodity, energy.
-calls feb SOYB -crop harvest update due tomorrow, 1st Thanksgiving this weekend, if we make it to the next without a ’29 style haircut will be impressed.
-except TKMR – thinking 25s for next friday, ebola it is.