$AAPL ROULETTE

Buy sell or hold $AAPL?

The crowd seems unusually bearish on this name. Daily and weekly conflict here.

Daily

Weekly

2011 was a pretty messed up year, full of ups and downs, fear mongering and talks of market crashes, fire and brimstone and epic capital losses. To mark such a heinous year, the $SPX closed exactly flat on the year; within less than 1 SPX point.

This year seems like another year where such a close will likely put the final stamp on two years of hellish market conditions.

That mark is 2058 in the SPX. The further we trade away from it, like we are today, look for a move back towards it.

The Russell is already diverging away from the rest of the market. I think over the next two days, there’s a strong chance we land there. After that, I’ll start looking for the market to make a leg out of its developing range.

Right now, love the action in $LNKD, $NFLX, $BIDU, $BABA, $UA and $TSLA.

OA

I started building this position last month, a bit higher than its currently being priced, and am sitting underwater on both blocks. I don’t plan to add anything to this until its back in the green. Here’s a quick look:

The stock recently did the LT trendline sweep, and flagged OS on my oscillator last week. Into strength, if it can’t get back through $85, I may reevaluate.

This also happens to be one of two stocks I am contemplating some short term calls on, fwiw.

Welcome back from the holiday break. Figured I’d start by catching up on the crude analogue. I caught almost $2 in /CL, and the $COP calls worked out well for anyone that followed. Here’s a quick update…

After a 3 day rally, the oil analogue we were using called for a good sized drop back into the prior range of $36. From here, it called for 5 days of consolidation following today’s big drop.

If things go according to plan, we’ll revisit another oil/energy long early next week. At the moment, let’s watch to make sure this all goes according to plan this week.

For those that emailed on the $COP trade, thanks. The biggest gain I read from those was +600%. Anyone beat that?

OA

My apologies for letting the blog content slow over the last few days, but I had some family business to attend to.

Wanted to take some time to wish my readers a Merry Christmas.

Enjoy the time with family, and I look forward to trading with you in the upcoming year.

OA

We’ve been following the 1998 analogue in oil in After Hours with Option Addict, which suggested a rally would start today and could take the price of oil up sharply over the next few sessions. I’m sure you’ve seen the charts I’ve posted, and several others out there that map the correlation between this year and 98.

Last night we mapped out a trade for the open in $COP calls. Anyone get them?

I also grabbed a /CL long yesterday at $35.77, and an /NQ long at 4516.

More later,

OA