I picked up $TDC calls on January 4th with an expiry of June. I got part of the earnings reaction I wanted…but take a look at the chart and take note of where it has paused.
Since I am nice enough to tell most of you what to do and when to do it, return the favor here and tell me what I ought to do.
This is the worst place to pause. It’s less likely that the stock continues to carry up through this hot pocket over head any time soon.
However, roughly 15% of the float is short, which is down from 30% late last year. The rest of the shorts have to be sweating a little here.
This would have been a much better short term trade, but you couldn’t have convinced me of that at the beginning of Jan.
In this pickle here, what would you do?
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I would say let it ride for at least one more day – 10% move is a lot for one day and a pause makes sense. I think if you get a small move down, that is going to drive some more buyers in here, but would not want to see a move below 32/32.5. At that point I would be a seller.
Tough decision. May fill gap at 35 or so. Ringing cash register never wrong decision.
Maybe book the calls you have, and roll the profits into higher strikes.
Book it and move on.
When that kind of upside is possible?
Would you care to borrow my decision coin sir?
You’ve got a ton of time and are likely ITM. I’d wait it out a bit to get more information. See how it consolidates and breaks from the move.
AMZN is now at fight or flight point at 822. If I weren’t fully invested I’d join the PUT here.
It is high and tight intraday still. Only if it gives up VWAP on 5min time frame would I consider booking the gain.
you’re right shitty spot to pause. I’d book some and roll out and higher its gonna happen
knowing your personality, you will be furious if you miss out on the gap fill, but just frustrated if this grinds lower into expiry
TDC sell stops set at 32.54
Sell some or most and then leave a couple on and trail it up.
If it’s going to move, why would I want less exposure? Shouldn’t I be thinking add with that much time left?
I guess I said that because I usually don’t buy that far out. I would rather lock in some gains and hope for a pullback to buy in again. If it moves higher at least I have some left to ride it up.
strong close merits seeing the Friday river card
The river is a bitch…OA, relating to my comment above and now given the opportunity to relate to poker, let’s think about it this way:
Even though you’re arguably a favorite going tothe river, there’s still some percentage chance that it goes the other way. I suppose it depends how much you’re into the trade (basis and gain), but sometimes it’s better to take the pot down on the turn and not suffer the river pain.
A pure math-based approach would tell you to stick around when you’re the favorite; but sometimes there are easier players at easier tables to beat on less risky hands.
I can’t argue with sticking around one more day. The risk of hard reversal is low, so if you get the follow-through, great. If you don’t, there’s no decay in one day, so downside is limited. On a single day basis, stick around…then out before the weekend.
Hold and see what happens tomorrow. Too big of a candle.
Isn’t this where it would consolidate and then move higher? Wait for $35 ish
Wish I could help you.. don’t know shit about options. However, I bought my second-ever option in 30 years of trading..a WUBA call…and am up 100% in two days with a month to go. Beginners luck I guess.
Let it come in over the next few weeks, then add
seems like majority here is telling you to take some profits. Maybe this was all an experiment to see what the crowd does and he will do the opposite. haha. brilliant!
It always is an experiment.
I always know what I want to do, but I am always curious on crowd thinking.
LVS looking good. thx OA for the tip.
LVS keeping me in the green today as well. He’s like a market technician/psychologist Frankenstein trader.
It’s fucking awesome.
Yeh def feel like I have way more weapons now, i.e. more angles and stuff to trade. The funny thing is, my trading volume has actually decreased from say a year ago as I’m not pushing as many thin edges which just creates headache.
wow, you played it right last time also.
I have a weird feeling this company gets acquired in the long term.
Lots of excitement suddenly. Anyone buying puts here (except in amzn of course)?
I started a short IWM position via puts on the 3rd. Added to it today. I also have TLT calls and followed OA on AMZN
EAT… take a look at 5 year chart.. See an interesting pattern around 44?
I’m holding my Feb 32.50s. I played for the big one so I have to hold.
In hindsight I should have bought more time like you.
Lots of time for that gap to fill. You’re hitting for extra bases, not singles. That said, I hate riding profits down to 0. I would probably book about 1/3 and let the rest ride.
ask people at work how they think the stock market is doing…someone at my wife’s work told her how much money they made on weed stocks – a sure sign of a top in those. The other day some girl at my work said that the stock market is doing really good right now, but cautioned that you can loose all of your money in it….so that’s a harder read.
You never book early. That’s not your style. What was the point of paying for all that theta? Use it.
OA, why is this is the worst place to pause? Is it because its momentum essentially stalled out before it could move farther into the pocket? And to answer your question (and of course this is not advice), I would tend to agree with linmoo in that you should wait to see how it reacts over the next couple days. You’ve got the luxury with the time you bought, and if its a muted move down/small consolidation, I’d say that would be reason enough to stay long.
If I asked you the question, you would have told me two things:
1) Don’t buy that much time if you are not going to use it.
2) You should have made this decision before you bought it.
My take: You bought the time, now you got to pay the price. Worst case gives you aversion, and you still got time. Best case is it runs into the volume pocket and play it out. Great trade!
+1
Looking at the chart pattern, I saw a triple bottom with a resistance of 29.12. From the way I read it, the range of the triple bottom is 3.12. That gives it a price objective of 32.24. In my opinion, the range from the low volume prior to today’s move, puts the price at 32.24-32.42. If what I see is in fact true, that means a pull back to those prices.
PS. I miss the days of Cheech and Chong movies. Funny clip.
SOLD FB – BOUGHT TGT
After the Breitbart hit piece it was an easy decision.
TGT needs to beat WMT and AMZN at their own game or face a SHLD death. They do this by appealing to the middle class shopper, not the low class trash WMT shopper. Right now their app is terrible and the shopping experience needs improvement. They know this and are addressing the problems with mgt changes.
12.2 P/E, .63 Beta with a 3.61 Yield is inviting.
$80 is my target.
Did you sell all your FB or partial? Did you buy TGT? Or you are just throwing the idea? Thanks.
FB sold all. I will buy some back if I see weakness in the sector/company.
This TGT trade is for protection. I get the .60/share dividend no matter what happens in the market, then sell when I reach my goal. Yes, the market can go higher, but sooner or later we get a correction.
Maybe fly is right this time, it happens in May.
Sell it and put the winnings 100% in DRYS 🙂
What are the odds TWLO can rally like TSLA from here?
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