As of $AMZN $820 today, I picked up some puts going out the rest of the month.
Notice the uptick in $XRT today, which in relation to $AMZN has been Ray Lewis’d for years.
According to experts of the internet, this trade will continue to flourish…for a company like Amazon doesn’t deal in rational ceilings or overblown expectations. As I’ve been discussing, I think it’s bottomed for awhile.
I flipped my coin today. Been long $COH, $TGT, $JWN, $LULU, and some shit stomped $SHLD and $UA against some new $AMZN poots.
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Let me cry you a river….friggin AMZN or how I lose even while winning. As an absolute beginner to stocks I bought AMZN soon after it’s IPO for what to me was a risky amount of capital at that time. Ended up buying at now split adjusted average price of $60 or so. Of course I’m buying right before the internet bubble pops. So I watch my money go near zero as AMZN trades down to $7 or so like a deer in the headlights. But then miracle of miracles it goes on a tear and gets just under my purchase price, then consolidates lower for 3 long long years and finally in 2007 goes on another tear and I’m actually up 50% so being the genius I am I sell half my shares! And i’m feeling good about it as the market crashes over the next year. Feeling lucky to have survived that I cash in another 40% of my shares over the next 2 years for an average price of around $150. after selling a couple more shares along the big run I sit here with a pitiful 3% of my shares to sell here. Investing is a bitch even with winners.
sorry for the novel, could right an even worse one about SBUX
No one cares. Everyone has war stories.
what a dick
Did you get out of PYPL? I managed to add today right before it surged this morning. Blind luck, that.
My SHLD is a lost cause at this point but JCP managed to get back to even today.
I just bought PYPL last week.
Yeah, we bought the same day I think. Was just curious since I didn’t see it mentioned here and it had a nice day.
I didn’t write about it as it didn’t really fit into the topic of the article.
Every trader has one of those stories. I had hundreds of shares of NFLX in 1998(?) at 6 I believe. NFLX was fuckin with my 10-year video distribution company so I thought I’d hedge my biz by buying NFLX shares. Think I cashed out at 60. But if one makes money on a trade then there’s nothing to bitch about. Save tears for losses.
Love the trade AMZN trade…if I were an options guy I’d follow.
yea I’ve got plenty of them too – to counter my long term gains lol. Adding to a winner is something I’ve never done as the fear of losing hard fought gains seems to be stronger emotion with me
I was fresh out of college and studying for my series 7 right around the time NFLX announced it was splitting their business lines. I had traded throughout college but still didn’t have a clue.
I bought puts prior to earnings but didn’t realize that they reported the day I actually took the test. I set a stop 20% below my cost.
The contract’s daily low triggered my stop, to the penny. Missed out on what would have been at least 1200% and learned a valuable lesson that day.
AMZN trade is a push for the moment. It’s direction will depend largely on NDX, imo.
That’s a pretty ridiculous statement seeing as how AMZN is one of the largest components of NDX.
You have the relationship backwards.
If NDX up, then so is AMZN. Not ridiculous statement.
No, again, you’ve got it backwards. NDX can be up while AMZN is down if the other components offset the loss.
The real point is that AMZN pricing directly drives NDX pricing, not the other way around.
This is where we disagree. You assume individual stock pick will dominate the price action. My opinion is index funds will dominate. Earnings are in rear view mirror.
That mentality is the most popular it’s ever been in the history of finance. Herd thinking.
No, this isn’t a matter of agreement vs. disagreement. You just have no idea what an index is or how it’s constructed.
NDX is just a composite of the prices of it’s constituents. AMZN is a component. Therefore, NDX is a derivative of AMZN, not the other way around.
It has nothing to due with who/what is dominating price action. The fundamental mechanism is that changes in AMZN’s price drive changes in NDX’s price, but not the other way around.
That’s total bullshit.
If that were true, why is AMZN just now getting back to October highs last year?
NDX tacked on 300 points from Oct highs while AMZN is down 20 points over that time frame.
How does this stuff get overlooked? The Nasdaq is ripping and your stock is LAGGING.
I agree with husaria that it’s a push – I’d like to see it fill that gap in the 830 and then I’d like to see some indication that it’s rolling back. Then I’d be all over it to 790.
Everyone still eyeballing the gap.
You know I didn’t miss that gap…but all you bulls are hovering over it. You’re not going to get it.
Maybe, maybe not. Will also take determined shorts to push lower from here. Difficult to have any degree of certainty, so I stay away.
But that’s horrible analysis. Amazon is not following the market at all.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=amzn-%24ndx
That’s how AMZN is performing against the NDX. See anything that stands out there?
It says exactly the opposite of your “If NDX up, then so is AMZN. Not ridiculous statement.”
Ridiculous statement.
The gap is the obviously/easy entry point, so why not watch it. Alternatively, IF the stock starts rolling over sooner, then you get in sooner.
You’re trying to time it perfectly by grabbing it now – I want to see some evidence it’s done going up first. So maybe I miss 820 to 815 or maybe even 810…that still leaves plenty of room to the downside.
Depends on when NDX rolls over. I saw profit taking yesterday afternoon and this morning. Looked like ready to roll over. Then, internals got better. If gap up on NDX tomorrow, then rolling short squeeze continues.
What does the XRT-AMZN chart show? Share gains in XRT – share gains in AMZN?
And mind sharing the strike/timing you’re looking at for AMZN?
Spread chart. It’s an XRT long against an AMZN short.
In response to your other question about blogging – I thought one of the best blogs you wrote was how people will lose 30, 50, or 100 percent routinely on options trades and then when they finally get one that is doing well – they pull the trigger in fear of losing a gain and sell it for an 80 percent or 100 percent gain rather than ride the winner for perhaps a 300, 400, or 500 percent gain (or maybe even a multi-thousand percent winner). In essence – they are spinning their wheels and/or losing if they only win once in a while and they allow the size of their winners to be the same size as their losers.
short GLD
WUBA.. now that’s a sweet volume profile..
It’s a horrible profile. Stop using a 1 year time frame. Makes no sense not to use actual price history.
FIVE is ready to break tight wedge with lots of room above. Worth watching here.
What are we doing with twlo? Anybody have a price target short term? As in 2 weeks?
Email me your account login and I’ll take it from here.
lol