Dow 20K…lol. I warned you.
I was a lot more excited about the Dow back at 15k last year. Anyway, so glad you could make it to the party!
Not sure why, but over the last few years I’ve sorta developed a strong resentment and distaste towards “the crowd.” You do realize that this new found feeling of excitement, hope, and enjoyment with your recent toe dipping into the markets was here a fucking year ago? I banged the table on this with countless forms of analysis, reasons, compelling historical arguments, etc…until every last one of my peers turned dumbshit, and did so at the bottom. Now it’s all cool ‘n shit to trade as 20,000 certainly brings a feeling of relief, a release of anxiety, and a dismissal of fear.
So stupid.
I think part of my resentment it is due to the fact that success in this sport relies heavily on your ability to be strategic against the crowd. Less than one percent of people out there can relate to that skill. It’s one I feel is superior to all other forms of analysis. Yet, how did so many miss the fast that the supposed risk out there in the last few years was not an incredible opportunity? In fact, this 20k milestone is the type of stuff that stresses me out, brings me anxiety, and makes me slightly more fearful of the markets as it draws retards back to the fold. Perhaps you don’t realize, but a fearful crowd gives me confidence. Want to read some major blogging confidence? Go back and read what I wrote each time the Dow traded in the 15k’s the last two years. Crickets. Now that the crowd is gaining confidence? I want to get the hell out of here.
So this is where I’ll cheerlead a market crash. I’ll root for it. I’ll be there to warn those that I care to warn, just like I did in 2007. I’ll watch the others perish.
While this rant is stupid and pointless to read, there’s a good sentiment and psychology lesson here if you care to go get your own shovel.
I bought some $AMKR calls today, otherwise sat here all bugged ‘n shit.
Good day.
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Why the negativity? Today is a great day.
Not sure if that’s sarcasm, or what, but if you’re serious you’ve quite literally just proved his point.
You are the crowd. He will fade you. And he will win.
I don’t think he’s bearish just yet right?
Sorry, I’m face down in a bag of cocaine.
It is a great day. That I cannot deny.
Toc Toc…hehehe
Slowly positioning short QQQ. Sentiment off the charts here. Everyone is boolosh
Got out of MRVL and bought AMKR as well
that’s what’s awesome about you OA – most ppl are all about big broad market up days, and you, love the Dow 40 days….as a subscriber and follower of yours, so do I. Seeing individual names rip 3-5% on those flat days is incredible, much more exciting than days like these IMO.
What does one do with a CREE position today? March contracts were +200% this morning, now down marginally. Scratching my head on that one.
I think he just means you get too many people overjoyed for 20K – rocking the boat – and they could be easy pickings.
Don’t forget S&P 2300! wait, no one cares.
http://imgur.com/a/V5FmI
sentiment in a nutshell.
Still hear a lot of people talking about not getting in at all time highs, Trump risk, uncertainty around Brexit, China credit concerns etc.
Right now I hear everyone saying to get out of gold, immediately…
So much bigly to happen.
People start discussing stuff that already was true before but they just realized it now and think because it’s news that it’s relevant. (do the opposite).
Language of tops:
“this is easy” “new normal” “new era” “permanently high plateau” “greater fool theory” “buy products you use” “buy and hold” “dollar cost averaging” uber drivers giving stock tips. “stocks are safe” “12% annualized returns” “this time it’s different” “golden age” “gilded age” “New era of prosperity” stories of overnight riches.
Language of bottoms:
“rigged market” “casino market” “risky” “better off gambling” “misery” “new depression” “dark age” “biggest crash in history still coming” (after it already happened) , vilification of wallstreet, negative earnings, record job losses, etc.
Other signs… google trends to track certain search terms.
This one is a little concerning here.
https://www.google.com/trends/explore?date=2004-12-25%202017-01-25&q=buy%20stocks
today in my facebook feed one person posted the stock market tape….no one ever posts the stock market tape save for the day after Trump was elected.
Good, let them pour their money into AMZN. The market is wide open right now. People are running to the 20 stocks they know, while all the action is in the dusty corners.
.. damn, you described my mindset over the last year to a fucking T.
Given your current anxieties, how are you playing things?
Gorilla-dicked long, with anti-anxiety meds. Sigh.
lolz
did you get the gorilla .gif?
Yeah but I am making one where he runs around clubbing little men with his phallus.
He was throwing dow20k at the peanut gallery then hauling ass to close his positions. 😀
Lol!! Love it
What a post, OA. There are about four or five screenshots from Trading Places that come to mind here…
The price is going down, that can’t be right. WINTHORPE!
That movie changed the way I saw Jamie Lee Curtis and salmon forever…
Rent’s not the only thing that costs money…
So many anecdotal things that have scared me the past week or two. The media feels euphoric but things don’t move much these days so maybe we just continue to grind / rotate higher? the S&P is only up like 7% in the past 2 years.
Maybe the financial media is euphoric, but most of the mainstream are flinging FUD …they’re in shelter-in-place mode.
as long as trading volumes remain this stupid .. been 4x normal lately , constantly ..
the machines want to carry the shift higher like forever
Well done, Jeff. Wish I could say I’m surprised by how this all shook out, but I really have gotten accustomed to you nailing calls like this way ahead of the crowd. Keep doing you.
“Heavy load to bear, party over here, I’ll be over there”
As a parallel.. in a nearby low income working class neighborhood some houses are offered at 400K. They are nicely dressed up, and staged. Most locals would consider fair value in the neighborhood as 125K to 225K.
What bugs me is tacky bull market renovations will remain in the houses even if prices decline to previous levels. Very little original stock is left, nearly everything sold has the look of bad plastic surgery.
Doug Kass usually (I would say always – but I’m sure there is some exception) comes into the new year with the worst trade ideas ever. Last year it was to be long banks in a big way at the start of January and of course in the first month and a half they lost 15 to 25 percent. Kass bought them again and again while they got crushed. This year Kass’ “trade of the year” is to short QQQ and he advised – or it might easily be deduced he sdvised – to start off the year with a nice-sized short position with the idea a person would see some instant gratification with a nice sell-off in January and some great gains overall by the end of the year. The beginning of each year Kass usually does not only look wrong – he looks dead wrong. With the QQQ up around 4 percent right now on the year Kass looks wrong – me thinks it has one more push to make him look dead wrong.
I sold most longs this morning. I botched a big win in NTNX by waiting a bit too long after the open. closed out GLD short also. Looking at selling SPY call spreads expiring mid Feb
Stopped out of RH..downtrend continues. Oh well. Can always get back in.
I almost pulled the trigger on RH yesterday morning, but opted for more XBI….
Now that was an interesting fucking with Bio. LABU doing a 360.
yeah, I almost sold my XBI, then I was looking at the chart and the situation and considered buying more…..in the end, I did nothing and I am ok with that