Last week I told folks to load the boat on China stocks. I ended up buying as many as I could hold.
$BIDU, $BABA, $CMCM, $ATHM, $WB, $BITA, $YY, $CTRP and $YRD.
In 2012-2013 I’d use this same approach to bouncing from group to group every other month. Thus far, all indications conclude that this year moving forward shows no different.
As I warned, we’ve entered into the exact market conditions I promised back in Fall of last year. The longer you sit out, the longer it lasts.
I’m interested in $FEYE, $SQ, $UPS and $FSLR around here.
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OA, what do you think of VRX right here? Is the drama over with and eyeballs move on to looking elsewhere? Or do you recommend not touching anything Mr. Bill touches?
Tried it two weeks ago and lost. Maybe $22 as a spot?
Fill that earnings gap? I’ll keep an eye on it. Thanks
how about $JD
She got fast!
This $JD price action is similar to a pattern we’ve seen which has generated follow-through recently, correct? I’m trying to remember where we saw it.
All of these stocks broke their 5 year descending trends today.
senor OA- on your IPO theme, what do you think about TWLO these days? I just picked some up along with ACIA
Pretty much said all I can about that stock. Been buying dips.
The spread on $TWLO options is crazy right now. Next month’s ATM is $2.35-3.10.
Looks like $NTNX could be the next $TWLO is you gan get it below $40 in the next day or 2
Yup – out of CRM puts for the loss in the upper-71’s.
OA gave you fair warning.
I’m buying some silver here.
https://postimg.org/image/vpd2tym6t/
The trendline gang got their brains blown out in Gold today.
RIP trendline gang. If there are any survivors, they can use this one.
https://postimg.org/image/oan7cy8yt/
If you aren’t connecting lows, hard to draw lines. They ought to have been watching the one overhead, connecting the highs back to 2011.
Good point with that upper trend line. Looking at a weekly/ monthly chart of gold, we could see $950 in a couple years.
One problem I’ve noticed with trend lines is that they can be moved pretty easily to fit a traders bias.
That’s why you have to connect price points. If you randomly connect the ones you want, that’s the bias. Like not connecting the middle lines on that Gold chart.
OA
From a chart point of view, do you think GLD can go down to 115 at the least ?
Under $110.
Look at the way this set-up. Gapped up into an island. Gapped down from it.
Pain is lower.
Thanks.
Buy some time for puts or buy here? I am thinking of waiting for some pop before buying puts
Are you asking me if you should buy $GLD, or buy longer term puts?
Planning of buying $GLD puts only. Not sure if it is a good idea to buy right away, or wait for sometime to get at a cheaper premium
Holy shit! You missed a 3rd standard deviation move. You want to buy after?
Why the fuck does nothing around here ever get heard?
OA
I shall act ahead from now. I admit that I have been ignoring the advice.
Last question – Holding $R October 70s. Rolling to November calls after it touches 70 , good idea?
Bad idea. If you are eventually going to buy Nov, why not do it here? It’s cheaper! If it goes to $70, you will have a gain!
Then sell Oct at $70.
Dude, want me to be your advisor? I can be a friend to you.
Sethster, you got out of your downside bets this morning, right? Said this market was going to rip by end of week?
No I didn’t say that. I said it would break either way. I wanted to lower my exposure.
We use different methodology yet usually end up in the same boat! Onward to China my friend!!
Huge call on China OA.
KO pounding through 9/15 low for the 4th time …set up to move under 41, short Nov 42 calls right here.
Meanwhile Canada and Australia are going down the tubes in a hurry.
Tax and spend won’t help them this time around.
One of my few investment goals is to make money short Canada, which is irrational and perverse. $CM & $BMO look shaky. But $BNS and $RY look okay. I’d always take new ideas though Sarge.
Our Prime Minister is an idiot. His previous work experience include substitute drama teacher and actor in a taxpayer funded drama on the CBC. And now he’s hell bent on crushing what’s left of the oil patch with a carbon tax.
Well. I suppose I can look on the bright side. He’s neither Hillary nor Trump.
In ‘Merica, politicians don’t run the show. We’re too big for that, dynamic, always changing adapting, adjusting. As soon as a law is passed we have 100 accountants with 150 IQ’s with a way to work around it and still make a profit.
This baffles the normal lawyer/politician so they just extend their hands out for money and leave us alone.
That’s ancient history about accountants working around laws. What law has ever been passed in recent years that inconvenienced corporations? Doesn’t happen any more.
Our Congress is a wholly owned subsidiary of our mega-corporations. We had a SCOTUS ruling called Citizens United that made it legal to bribe Congress and the president, and to keep it secret too. And corporations take full advantage.
Tax and spend or borrow and spend– Either way the U.S. Congress always spends more and more over time. So we have no reason to turn up our noses at any government that spends more money than they have.
And I have been studying the real estate market in both Can and Australia.
Canada recently invoked a 15% tax on foreign (Chinese) buyers. Their market is in a melt down.
Australia is even more pumped than Canada with >30% of all purchases going to a foreign (Chinese) interest. Let’s see if the Australian pols mess with the golden egg.
In the US foreign money is snapping up homes >=250k. Foreign purchases now at 6% in TX. 6% of TX is a huge chunk of money.
All those free trade agreements that outsourced American jobs to China and other countries, really pumped up the Chinese economy and also various 3rd world economies.
Foreigners have the money to buy the houses that Americans whose jobs were outsourced can’t afford to buy. So the trade agreements really helped our RE market, even though they made things hard for Muricans who lost good paying jobs, and then were only able to find low paying McJobs to replace them.
In the U.S. the Congress has been screwing over working class Muricans for a long time. That’s why we got Bernie and Trump, who are seen by some as “solutions” to that problem.
And when robots take over MCD and SBUX the millenials will have to become electricians or mow yards, their choice. So much for that degree in underwater basket weaving.
There aren’t enough jobs for that many electricians, so I guess they’ll all mow yards, even if they have degrees in electrical engineering.
The stats on Canadian real estate are absurd. It tracked the US right up until 2008 then just kept going uninterrupted when we crashed. The best way I can figure to get short using US Exchanges is via puts on the Canadian banks.
The Canadian real estate market bubble is highly regional. Vancouver, particularly, has had massive buying from Chinese money launderers which has driven prices sky-high. The Toronto market is elevated, but nothing like Vancouver. The rest of the country is either in slow growth or actual contraction (e.g. Alberta.)
Fundamentally, the Canadian banks are different from their US counterparts because of a different regulatory environment. Canadian banks weren’t allowed to give mortgages to illiterate strawberry pickers with annual incomes of $12,000.
I’m not very bullish on Canada over the next few years. The current governments are not interested in leveraging our strengths. Instead, they’d rather kowtow to environmentalist nutcases and assorted union thugs.
Oil may be topping here. Put in a Doji on /CL. Haven’t taken any position yet, but will stalk a short following the inventory announcement if it’s negative. Got a long way to drop like Gold did today.
So much for that. They squeezed the crap out of /CL at the close of the day, no more Doji.
another go at FireEye? lol
I sat the last few out. Market can’t sell off til $FEYE rallies.
WNR looks ready to roll
OA – Since I just missed AH, is the burrito trade a hit em and quit them deal or let it run? WB looks great, JD looks good minus that reversal. CTRP on the other hand looks like it maybe putting in a lower high and YY is still consolidating.
Long dated downtrends were broken today.
My $YY calls are way way up thank you OA sensei
The China stocks, are you long via options I assume? If yes, what is the timeframe? (Oct expiration, Nov? etc?). Thanks.
Bought October calls in all of them last week.
Order placed to try and catch the JNUG knife at 11. Stop 9 and target 15.
CRM – darn had it right after all. Should have played it for conviction – sold puts yesterday for 30-something percent loss – this morning would have been hundreds of percents of gains.
I do wish their retard CEO would stop trying to buy Twitter.
CMCM and YRD Nov calls
Added to $VRX yolos.
Bought some SOHU calls. Took loss in TEAM calls.
Heart me some SHLD from the turd files.
Always bet brown. Epic call.
if it wasn’t for your inspiration where would we be?
In a turd folder like the rest of them.
FWIW Tech has nice seasonals this time of year. Particularly strong from end of October into November.
http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/TECHNOLOGY.PNG
Someone made a killing buying weekly UPS calls off the open today (if Im not mistaken). Volume is insane
I bought UPS calls right before the close yesterday. Should have gone weekly also.
Still hit the nail on the head as usual. And you called it in AH yesterday.
Retail names anyone?
RH
TWLO Oct 21 60 @ 4.0
Like big pharma? Like GILD
That and agn my 2 largest long term healthcare holdings
Found an interesting IPO: $FTV. Trying it here.