One really effective indicator of determining when a market run is “excessive,” is to see what type of stocks are outperforming. Let’s go back to summer of 2015. Most of the China internet stocks had doubled in 2-3 months and all the cheap trash stocks were smoking hot. You’d see dozens of them up 20% or more daily. That stat simply measures a specific genre of trader and when those guys are most active is when they’re most confident and comfortable. Why do we care about this genre of trader? Simply put, they’re the least sophisticated type of trader out there. When they’re invested, you’ll want to lighten your load onto them. Ew.
Occasionally, I will buy a stock I deem to be “a topper.” A real brown one. I’ll buy it and when I notice its up a lot, it sets off a signal for me about the market. Earlier this year it was $BLDP. Notice that pop on April 28th it had. Then notice that the $RUT topped on the 28th, starting a 6.5% decline in a few weeks.
Again, I use this to determine near term enthusiasm and a potential start of market weakness. This time around, I am debating buying $PLUG. That’s on the “all-time” turd list for sure.
Got a turd out there you’d put in this category?
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FRO
Peaked right before BREXIT panic
$AVP and $BBRY both setting up
Sell.It.All
I’m out…Market is going to be a turd for the next month or so. GLTA
Hey OA, you have had many winners this year indued.
May I ask, how you view RUSS? I picked up some yesterday at 11.06 thinking of rounding up/out my week but now it looks like it has much more than a 1 day trade look to it on the 12 month daily. Could you please give it a look and forward a potential 1 to 3 week target.
Jeff, have a much deserved weekend to relax.
Thanks Granpa. I like this idea. $RSX looks tired, and $YNDX action looks rough.
Bot CRM 73 puts
$TWLO FRIDAY saves my hind end on expiry day. Got out of my original position for a scratch and my YOLO for a triple. – – $CPB puts for 400% – – $KMI ended up not quite a double which would be nice, had I not had an order in for $2.90 with mid-bid at $2.85, and ended up salvaging $1.50 5 days later.
Bought $LN, trying to get $TXN pus, but I think everyone is checked out because I haven’t seen the ask move in about 45 minutes. I’ll be happy either way. Starting to worry about salvaging premium on a few longer dated things that are beginning to look ugly-ish.
And bidding good riddance to $SFUN, $GILD, $WSM and $TSLA.
I YOLO’d today’s 54 calls @ .50 in my trade room, just .10 off it’s LOD. Going to be a daisy right hurr.
Nice Jeff, I gotta get back in there asap
Making some changes there near term. Should be worth checking out while rates are low.
Changes in just the rates, or adding additional features/content? Just curious. In the process of changing roles with work, which would allow me free time during day to trade and access your site.
Scott, both actually. Moving ahead of the crowd that’s coming back in the next 2 years or so.
Saved by the opex pin.
Needless to say, I defend my possition on going short making more sense
Next week we battle. The fact that it waited for OpEx to rip like this, and the action in the last 5 minutes screams death to short sellers. 25% of the float?
Too early. Short it at $75.
Drys
Had a low limit order for a Oct LN call that filled a bit ago. So now I am in what I literally just wrote was too expensive… but I got the price I wanted so, yea.
SHAK and MNST are looking good on the OA indicator.
FCEL = mega turd.
+1 … i’ve used that one a few times
Hey Jeff – why the PLUG idea? Are you seeing trash stocks going today? Or just a thought that came to you? Thanks, Craig
She traced the whole range and I am a buyer at the bottom of it. Long $LN calls.
http://screencast.com/t/m9tWDNSX
TWTR
Ha ha! Always…
@OA I am off to Disneyland next week with my girls and will be joining the chat first thing Monday morning. Super stoked
Thank you. I appreciate that.
My steady girl $NMBL is back into support. Shouldn’t buy anything else, but maybe…
Made my buy list here.
FEYE. 🙂
Bro, coincidentally…look at when that stock stopped going up last year. 6/18. Russell toppped 6/22.
FCX
I’m the broken record with Tencent. Now one of the worlds most valuable company, and it is just now starting to expand into the PacRim, namely, and doubling investments into the US. And like Facebook, they are not afraid to throw money at their growth problems.
We always think of the US leading the way expanding into Asia, what if the reverse occurs?
It’s at all time highs, why it just has to tank here.
Can we invest/trade tencent here US market ? Thanks.
Ticker goddmamnit? Sarge.
$TCEHY
are you talking about some creepy all-china internet holding company? Just google “Tencent stock,” it’s confusing
Yes, I bought it in here last year for $19.
TXRH ready to break a wedge. Added to JUNO.
Nice bounce off the boom of the range. Just like the book says. Lol. $LN
As far as the toilet stocks I had $kndi in there a while back as well. But haven’t looked at that chart in a long time
Remembering a night in Mexico where I forgot to say sin hielo por favor….
I give you SHLD,
OA indicator,volume today huge short float, forgotten by everyone and just an overall disaster of a company begging to go to 16/17 in a heartbeat.
Don’t forget to wipe.
The lifetime chart of this turd is priceless perfection. Perfect EOY Brown Topper right here.
Enjoy the Coastal side of life.
How do Mary Jane stocks fit in with this theme? Thinking RMHB, CVSI
LXU, SCCO, PLG are all pieces of shit, but they’re in the materials sector, how does that factor in to the theme?
May the market lift my CSIQ and FSLR..
I know a guy who bought his first house off of PLUG a while back. Good luck sir.
OA How about PAY and HDP
NM, HOV