On the topic of being flooded with questions today, I am opening the ‘blog hotline’ to answer any question you have.
Keeping the line open for a limited time, and all questions will be answered.
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Who’s winning this weekends Conor McGregor vs Nate Diaz fight. Pretty close to even money right now. Conor a tiny favorite.
Conor.
market action had a different feel last couple of days, particularly some of the burritos falling back (SFUN LEJU). a little consolidation due?
The leaders are shifting to the laggards ($WB, $YRD, etc).
Buy $JD< $ATHH, $BITA, etc.
any particular mechanism behind that; laggards moving up makes sense, but without risk-off why do the leaders fall back?
Book gains in winners to buy the next breakouts.
the pull-back is a little more than i would have expected, but we’re not talking ibm here, so yes that makes senses. thanks for the insight!
Thoughts on the drillers getting hammered even as crude races up? $ORIG bk warning, or does something else have investors so spooked. Seems a little overblown, is there an entry here?
Buy these moves to the middle of this years ranges. $RIG and $ATW
Has your brother-in-law asked for any stock advice lately?
Nope, no mention at all
any particular timeframe you favor here? most of my options have been 2 month expiry, thinking about moving to a shorter horizon in this environment though.
I hate buying too much time. I never use it.
So the increase in theta decay once the contracts are sub-30 days doesn’t bother you? Sorry if this is a silly question, i’m genuinely interested.
I tended to avoid sub-30 day expirys because of the increasing convexity of time decay there.
Not one bit. As you can see, I am in stocks that make big moves. It compensates for that quickly. I’m a gamma guy.
So are you always buying strikes below or at your PT?
If I have a $50 PT on a stock I’m comfortable buying 55 strikes because the time value gives me cushion, assuming I like the contract price. I assume you don’t do this since you don’t buy any extra time?
ps – a former colleague of mine claims to have blogged/chilled with you guys in the past. I’d like to get the scoop lol
MSFT GOOGL AAPL
Buy one, short one, leave one alone, go!
Sold AAPL in my LT account today. MSFT or GOOGL? Tough one. GOOGL.
Do you ever look at the related news of the tickers?
Or is it purely technical by looking at trend, volume, etc…?
Never. News isn’t important. How stocks react to news is important.
What is the #1 thing you do everyday that makes you so successful at trading?
I observe. My process of observation is awesome, IMO.
Observe what specifically?
I see all things. I can tell when something is out of place.
do you still like $TSLA, your last bootcamp you had a target of $400+, will it happen in 2017?
Yes, and no.
CREE target?
March or $30, whichever comes first.
when will FEYE get bought out???? Lord have mercy.
It won’t with you as a shareholder.
I often hear you talk about the pain trade(trapping longs, contrarian general sentiment, etc), and I’m trying to understand it. What causes the market to do the most damage to investors? Are the hedge funds and algos behind it?
what are the variables you need to know to identify the pain trade?
Honestly, common sense. People are reactive. Ask yourself what the market needs to do to get the biggest reaction.
Do you manage outside capital?
Yes.
End of year oil prices?
$52, after hitting $60.
What kind of a name is Poon?
Comanche Indian
Thoughts on continuing to hold TLT?
Still believe in IBB/XBI?
I’m pretty interested in rotating out of LTC any dividend paying suggestions?
(LTC has a 4% annual dividend that pays monthly – I’m sad to see it go but I dont like REITS here)
Definitely. The bearish response to that post and those prices was all I needed.
Do you now regret creating this post :D? Got to say though, very useful thread.
I’m good.
This $FCX profile looks awesome. Any thoughts/expectations on when it starts the move? Thanks.
This month
do you still like $CRM calls for earnings aug 31?
I don’t like my entry and size.
Would now be a better entry ? Thanks!
I’m losing money here, so obviously better here.
Still looks like shit.
What was your biggest winning options trade?
What size lots do you usually trade?
$BSC puts in 08. That one made me.
OA – Thoughts on $BIDU and $GS please
Booked a monster in GS from the lows. Some of those banks hitting the underside of multi year ranges…GS, BAC, C.
Love BIDU.
Senior- what do you think about gold and gdx?
Nothing actionable, but I’d rather lose money trying to short here than trying to buy.
Sun burned FSLR….. You still in that?
Sure am.
AMBA too late for?
Yeah, I bought that four times last year.
No question here, but you’re my hero. Still basking in my TWLO Aug 45 calls- got them for $.75
That’s so bad ass.
Thoughts on VRX? Thanks.
Horrible spot for anything.
Thoughts on PCLN here? Thx
Had this up yesterday, but didn’t take it because I had nothing to sell to make room. Don’t love chasing.
Hey OA,
I have just started following after hours and am a little lost, can you recommend any reading to help get the basics of your strategies? Do you have a blog? Any help would be appreciated, I’m a master at losing money. Would like to change that.
Big Mike
Where’s the struggle? Analysis or execution?
analysis
Ok, how can I help you? If you’ve just started After Hours, start soaking it in. I’ve got crash course recordings on the right hand column of the site.
How much have you made in short term capital gains trading during your lifetime?
Lifetime? 1.2mm I’d guess. That’s off its high water mark, but not by very far. That’s not including LT.
Ever try day trading?
I did from 2002-2004. Love the idea, bur only in certain markets. Bear markets preferred.
Trading short term approx 3 years. I would say about 8-10k cnd. So that’s $2.25 us. Most those gains from first 2 years. About even now.
Will fertilizer bust out in the next two months? Currently long IPI and POT common, about 2% up in one and 2% down in the other. Sucking wind on POT Sept calls. Wanted to add CF closer to 22 couple of days ago but didn’t make the move.
Look at monthly charts of softs. Ferts will follow, but that’s a shit trade. It’s a fert stock, longer time frames make the most sense.
Haha! Thanks!
Favorite movie?
Thank you.
I have a few that come to mind…Good Will Hunting, Rounders, Departed, There Will Be Blood…but probably Fletch.
Hey OA,
I was able to catch a couple after hours sessions during the trials and I’m very impressed. Your calls have been spot on and I was a big fan of your use of volume profiles. Got a question for you on WDC. Looks to be consolidating at a pretty interesting spot long term. What else are you seeing that made you pick up some calls here?
The location is awesome, IMO.
Can you describe a situation in which you would average down on a position?
Favorite sports teams? Favorite movie?
(Ex the movie part at this point)
I grew up in the Bay Area, so I only knew Giants, Warriors and Niners games. I’m a Utah Jazz season ticker holder though.
trade you were most sure of – that worked. trade most sure of – that didn’t
This year?
ever
$TWTR IPO was the most confident I’ve ever been.
Confident that didn’t work out? Hard to distinguish one loss from another.
Was convinced copper would bottom last year, didn’t trade it, but was certain of it.