Weird, huh? I warned of this outcome for a very, very long time. Pretty cool to be totally loaded for this and to sit back and watch it in all its glory. After a few months, everyone that swore off stocks will slowly come back to the fold.
I wanted to recap this signal we discussed in After Hours with Option Addict a couple weeks ago. For all the point and figure chartists out there, the $BPTRAN, which is the bullish percent for transports hit 15% a couple weeks ago. FIFTEEN PERCENT.
I spent a lot of time on the Dow Theory sell signal last year, debating its reliability with another blogger. It produced a strikingly similar signal in 1998. Take a look at a chart going back to the late 90’s of the $BPTRAN:
This is a once in 5 years type of signal. This is also why these stocks have been ripping, selectively. The bullish percent is great at identifying investable groups/sectors with fairly objective analysis.
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So what’s the buy – XTN?
I bought the dip in AXL yesterday because it sounded transporty. Axles and all. It looks like it’s more cars and trucks though. Does this mean trucking stocks and railroads? Thanks guys
Great analysis, Jeff. You are the best!
Mr. Ron Jeremy is taking pleasure in slapping FIMO sideliners about the face with the totality of his tumescence. Can’t deny it, my cheek got touched. Luckily I didn’t have my mouth open like bchu when contact was made….
I shit my chair when I read this. Will be atop the HOF of comments on my blog.
Made my day.
As much as it hurts to admit, bchu inspires me.
lol!! guess ur one of the few winners out of this blog. congrats!
Few winners? Fuck you.
OA.. you take the bait every time.
I do. Can’t help it.
So you are admitting you are too cheap to actually pay for AHWOA, Exodus, TraderLounge etc.. You come here and try and grab picks off other people’s work and then bitch when one goes against you.
You should be embarrassed. SMH
Don’t mind bchu if his words are a little salty… BTW bchu – look at your reflection in your monitor. You’re typing with you mouth open. Gotta stop that, man!!!
ummm…ok. great group you got here, OA. hahaha.
Just everyone relax and use me as a contrarian indicator.
LOL winner of best blog comment of 2016.
QQQ’s look amazingly similar to beginning of 2012 where it ran up 20% in 3 mo. 14 green weeks in a row.
Where’s the buy in GDDY – $28.75?
Too weak here. Not sure it should be down this much.
RPD is looking interesting – it’s made it out of that falling channel and not up much today
OA- Paying any attention to those social sentiment indicators at all on TOS? Not sure what to make of it yet.
$BPGDM Bullish % Gold Miners on Stock charts at all time highs (contra indicator)? Is it as effective a tell on the upside as on the downside?
Way overbought. That’s part of the reason I mentioned fading this group last week.
Check $BPTELE…lol.
Wow. Too bad they don’t have one for Utilities/Reits.
found it: $BPUTIL another extreme
So I sold out of TWLO today but when I zoom out a hair on the 30min it looks like it’s about to go parabolic…
Nice one, OA. I remember you saying this way back when it looked like the world was falling apart. Incredible to see your thesis play out. Do you think this chase can go on for months? I’m pretty heavily long, but I can always go longer, LOL.
Yes, this will last for quite some time. Over a year, more like two…IMO.
Last time you had this high of a print in $BPUTIL (Jan 2015), XLU dropped 17.1% in a few months and $SPX rose 7.7% in same period.
That’s a sick stat! Thanks for posting.
OA. I know you’ve been seeing this as a “market of stocks”, but would you see the major indices performing just fine for the balance of the year.
After this move, I don’t think the indicies are going to move very fast to the upside, but I think stocks will.
The last few years we’ve seen unprecedented trends to passive investing. Crazy inflows to ETFs, particularly SPY. I think the pain trade moving forward is owning SPY, but not catching the moves in stocks that are coming. Make sense?
Agree with the effect of the movement to ETFs but pick the right sectors for a longer term hold is tough with all the frequent rotations.
What do you consider long term?
At least one year.
Then you should be more tuned into these weekly rotations. It’s the only way to trade.
OA, what do you think about shorting FXP instead of going long select China stocks?
Seems like missed opportunity.
Day trade some LN anyone?
Why can’t you and Fly agree for once?! I’ve been having a wild goose chase all along.
Why? We’re not managing your money, you are.
For the record, I promised this was coming. Never swayed from that.
Picked up a few AMZN 750 weeklies. Like the look here
Your analysis of likely outcomes at key turning points has been so helpful – late last summer, early this year, and then heading into summer. It seemed like the breakout took just a little longer than you expected this last time? If so, no matter, you never wavered. The watching of ranges, steady hand and careful positioning were all very educational – helped calm my nerves.
Just made a nice profit on 10,000 shares of GSS from .74 to .9088. Will look to re-enter.
This has been quite a nice move so far. Luck
Sorry.. luckily I’m fully invested. Don’t you think we retest at some point though? CF has been nuts, best pick of the year other than JNUG back in March for me.
STMP in this one here. like the action for a momentum burst/breakout. Anyone in?
bought KMI August 22’s last week for .05 thinking the move through the volume pocket would be slow and methodical….well, I am glad to be wrong, but this fast move has me nervous now…don’t want to pull the trigger too fast here, but geez.
Congrats OA. Love the title of your post. A lot of traders are probably still locked out of this rally. No doubt they will have to pay up to get in…right about the time before the market turns down.
Lol! Can’t quite let it go.
Bask in the glory, Jeff.! A PnF horizontal count in early May on the Jan-Feb accumulation base projected Dow 18,550 to 19,050. We are just about to the lower end of that projection now. A more recent count on the accumulation that the market has now broken out of is projecting over 20,000 Dows.
FB announces in two weeks. Explosion to the upside.
That’s I am hoping. The chart looks really ready for that move. Still, I hope you didn’t zinx it. hahaha…
Anyone else looking to get into coal companies post bankruptcy? I’m thinking they’re going to be in a great situation. Lowered debt, less obligations to employee healthcare, and rising coal prices. Could be the perfect storm for huge runs.
Alpha Natural is supposed to emerge from bankruptcy at the end of the month.
Nevermind on Alpha. They’re going to be private after bankruptcy. Maybe there will be others.
Well let’s hope that’s the bottom for ATHM? I could see it down to $19.5 and still in the pattern.
Anyone take advantage of this downgrade in AMCX?
Hey OA – What are your thoughts on an oil bottom here?
Just sold /CL for +$1.25. Thinking about calls over the weekend.