You may have already seen this, but BAML clients have sold their stocks for a record setting 15 weeks straight. Wow.
Business Insider…
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on TwitterWhile a surge in commodity prices, led by crude oil, certainly helped to push the market higher, perhaps there was another underlying reason to explain the significant bounce: there was no one left to sell.
According to Jill Cary Hall and Savita Subramanian, equity strategists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BAML), clients have now been net sellers of US stocks for 15 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch of continuous outflows since the bank first began tabulating the data in 2008.
That’s a remarkable statistic given some of the volatility witnessed over the past eight years.
The chart below, supplied by BAML, tracks net flows into US stocks from the bank’s customers, overlaying the movements against those in the S&P 500 index.
via Business Insider Australia
As it demonstrates, the selling in recent months has been significant, putting that seen in 2008, 2011 and 2013 — perceived “crisis” periods for markets — to shame.
According to BAML, net sales continue were led by institutional clients, while hedge funds and private clients were also net sellers during the week.
While the significant outflows could suggest that there’s an increased likelihood of an equally large correction — something that it signalled before the US mortgage crisis in late 2008 — given the size and duration of outflows and the reluctance of the S&P 500 to move lower, perhaps this is a contrarian indicator that recent selling has simply been exhausted.
Bull markets die on Euphoria… Pretty tough to argue we are anywhere near euphoric.
To me, the pain trade being higher, much much higher, is the most interesting possibility out there right now. Even the smart people I know are selling stuff and very light. I can’t imagine what is possible into a chase. I’m positioned for it, and hoping to see what happens. I will buy you a cold one if it takes place, for keeping me invested throughout this.
Pain trade is much much higher.
CFTC Net Non-Commercial Emini futures are highest in over a year.
They could go higher, of course, but I wouldn’t call that “the pain trade.” Money has been leaving stocks ever since the Fed got involved. This selling is heavier, but higher stock prices will not attract these dollars back.
2007’s bull market died with a whimper as well.
*by “highest” I mean largest net position. People are long, in other words.
Missed the opportunity to hedge portfolio. And I called for bloodbath in you post from … Friday, I think.
By the time I blinked many stocks were dump and schlump.
Sort of the opposite of ramp and camp.
Wait, what?
I wanted to place puts on Tuesday, but did not since my stocks were closing at or near their highs.
So I missed a chance to negate a 1.5% loss. Yeah I know, not exactly a bloodbath.
Not a bloodbath but still a pretty good retracement
From Friday afternoon? The fuck are you talking about?
I think he’s saying that he called for a bloodbath, but he’s lucky he didn’t act on his call? So wrong but right?
My brain hurts.
dude, he i’m referring to his comments saying puts from TUESDAY. chillax. Dunno what the fok you talking about
I expect the market to trade down this week. Mom and Tues was low volume. I should have bot puts Tuesday evening but did not. Shouldn’t have used “bloodbath”.
My bad.
TDA shows retail is less and less interested in stocks as well: https://imx.tdameritrade.com/imx/p/imx-pub
I wonder how much of this is due to demographic changes.
imho – technicals, fundamentals, psychology etc is out the window as long as the fed can jawbone this market up and down with the slightest effort. It’s hard to argue that they’ve used all their available options, so who knows how many more years of up-to-sideways we can do.
For the same reasons, I can’t imagine trying to short this market knowing that at any time someone from the Fed, Japan, or the ECB can start a short squeeze by expressing the vaguest dovish sentiment.
Also, wondering if maybe that the sentiment behind a lot of money going away is less outright bearishness, but rather just taking money out a game that people don’t feel make sense to them anymore. (watching the market repeatedly have its very best days on its very worst news days, for instance, might just make some cynical enough to not want to play at all)
agree for the most part. but I do think Japan is out of bullets. Every bullet they just seem to sink their ship even more.think the US ins in a much much better position
Your right about its NIRP efforts lately, but Japan hasn’t done the helicopter money yet…
OA Are you still holding your cheapie oils, BAS and CJES or did you dump?
I own DNR, BCEI, BTE, BAS, CIE, ATW
Piggybacking on the “Mall is Dead” thesis. Bought CAKE June 45 and Jul 44 Puts
Not to troll, but the $CAKE parking lot is the only place I see cars (and full) when driving past the mall..
Appreciate hearing the other side. My thesis is rise in crude will put an end to the bull run in the restaurant stocks. Look at MCD TXRH DPZ — all being sold. Lower gas thesis has been played out IMO.
Same here
Speaking of retail: Auntie Buccs was beaming last week because she was “lucky” enough to preorder the ‘Misty Copeland’ Barbie. Bullish omen for $MAT? 5yr weekly chart has ‘the look’…
$MAT – Seasonality is decent, I’m kind of serious about respecting this omen. OA – what do you think of the June 32’s??
Not a bad set-up…very easy to manage. Stop doesn’t have to be very far from here.
Thanks for looking!
IBB holding.. bought FPRX earlier today. Love it here.
stock is holding the, options getting crushed.
nevermind. both crushed now
Bought a coupla FIT Weekly 15 calls YOLO
Bought VRX May 30 calls
Last chance to buy RIG under $10. If VRX is now buyable then its time to finally buy Biotech.
Buy the close….
One last long idea before I step out for baseball; NBL (no position)
there are some juicy shorts setting up for longer term holds.
such as?
Any growth stock.
$RLG is outperforming $RLV by a mile. You have no idea what you are talking about.
Ok then just any bio stock
imagine what it must be like in this dudes head?
Just a bunch of ticker symbols, dressed up as penises, running around in circles.
New trade: Long Crude / Short Gold. Risk On!
Bot JDST in PM
Bio. Yikes
wow, quiet today.
With HYG holding, TLT & GLD down, currencies pretty chilled it doesn’t look like a risk off move, just weak longs (Tuesday’s bandwagon guys) getting stops hit. Pretty sure OA said at the time we’d come back here for a re-test. Let europe finish selling into their close before passing judgement, but anyone see anything fundamentally different?
Nope, that’s what’s killing me here. Don’t get it.
Sell in May
Long TF 1103.9
Looking for continuation lower in Gold…another nasty intraday reversal will lead to a day of reckoning for the Gold Bugs. JDST is still buyable.
Sentiment Chart… Where we might be:
http://s32.postimg.org/5b1hp6v45/Sentiment.png
Nice mark-up, thanks
sure feels washed out….any extreme ticks?
Just a + at the open
My diversified portfolio is being bled drip by drip. Wouldn’t use the “b”, but my down week call showing no signs of changing. The best puts were to be had Tuesday being and Wednesday before 10:39.
This will continue into next week. I do not see an Opex save.
What I look for in a bear market is your hopes are raised the last and first week of the month. Your heart is then ripped out the week before, OpEx, and the week after.
I am feeling that.
I bot a couple of NFLX 88 calls for a yolo
NK getting hit on no news. Probably going to pick this one up by EOD
news is that its a POS company with no real revenues and overhyped IPO
Maybe the market is uneasy with the “Torches & Pitchfork” crowd (Trump Supporters) taking the country back from the establishment. Could be more than just a “sell in May” thing this time.
This isn’t CNBC … we don’t need to come up with bullshit reasons for every 0.15% drop in the index.
Speaking of (potentially) bullshit reasons, look at the top of the wick of today’s daily candle on the /ES, right at the top of the blue channel. Simple downtrend, IMO. Yellow lines represent the huge ass box on the monthly going back to October 2014.
http://tos.mx/AaBf0m
BTW, that descending channel is so obvious that a breakout from it may very well happen. By “downtrend,” I just meant the channel was respected today, and not that it’s controlling the market for any period of time.
Jon, I would have let that comment stay, because you were already a good contrarian indicator, but decided against it. Have a good day.
You are clearly dealing with something we don’t understand, Jon. Perhaps you molest those cats in your avatar? Hiding in the closet still?
You’ve never had a good call here. You should work out your insecurities with some therapy. Nobody likes you.
Let it go! You crazy obsessive internet twat. I don’t want you to come here, yet you can’t stay away. Fuck off! Find a friend!
Marked the low of the day again. Damn, you’re so good. Maybe I should let you stay?
Don’t take shit so personal man.
Fuck you. I’ll show you personal.
Please do OA, bought UPRO at 63.29 timestamped 01:24:17 that was right after I read Jonny’s post 🙂
please let him stay
nice bounce off the lows for SPX. RUT barely following tho. Let’s get a run going please
It’s following boss, just got a late start.