Awesome setup to start the week! Ramp the bulls up higher and squeeze the weekend shorts. Reverse, stop out late longs and draw the shorts back in for another round. This type of action makes me think we chop a bit this week.
Balance on the lower time frames is starting to compress, which means we’ll be leaving this range in a fairly fast manner soon. What’s interesting is that the last few times this set-up has happened this far into a rally, everyone got their calls for a breakout. This time, they keep buying puts to insure against the drop.
I picked up $SFUN and $AMZN calls at the open and need to manage exits in $TWTR, $YELP, $CMCM, $VIPS, $DATA and $VMW this week.
Watching $SHOU, $RPD and $WTW.
After Hours with Option Addict peeps, I had to stay a little longer on my trip than expected and won’t be available to meet today. I’ll be traveling back tonight and will be back to business tomorrow. Thank you for your patience.
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IBB puts setting up beautifully. About to roll over. Breaking strong support @275
Twtr call buyers continue to get screwed. Lol
Any FSLR opinions out there? Thanks!
I’ll say the same, too long term pick for me.
If management won’t give guidance, they’ll auction it down to the 200d moving average to see if there’s any institutional interest.
I like chkp here
Dow 19,000 by 12/31 is possible
Way to keep it conservative
Nothing worse than to have a loser like INSY slowly creep back to flat and then announce sales issue with resulting collapse. Once a POS always a POS.
OA: Are you thinking we breakout to the upside or downside near term or undecided yet?
Upside.
Thanks. You should write a textbook on emotion-based investing and have it mandatory reading for CFA candidates!
LOL
It would be much more valuable than most other bullshit books out there
But the cover needs to show a guy in suspenders hurling into a toilet with a stockchart above!
No offense given, OA. I think you are a very good trader. Just cracks me up how people swing off your nuts.
My suspicion is we get turnaround Tuesday. Gap down open to reinforce the apparent bearish trading the past few days, suck in shorts, then reversal.
(assuming we do indeed go higher from here)
What’s your target for $YELP?
Long term YELP is screwed b/c of their reliance on Google in my opinion.
Barry Diller had a great take on Yelp last May on CNBC when he was discussing IAC and Tinder. David Faber asked him about YELP and he said he had no interest in that business model.
Everything is good for a trade though.
A break of this range would be ideal
Bullish wedge in dollar
Crazy:
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/04/11/a-measure-of-stock-market-fear-just-hit-an-all-time-high/
““It’s not so much that people are panicking and buying downside protection, but there’s this extreme pessimism or lack of confidence that the market can go higher from here in the next three months,”
This chart doesn’t really coincide with market moves though. Look at how low it got during the drop in Jan/Feb. It’s almost as if it’s a double contrarian thing.
We had that discussion in January when funds had their least amount of equity exposure in about a decade.
Yeah, I’m just referring to the chart in the above link. I’ve seen this make the rounds on Twitter about how everyone is bearish but if you look at the above chart it looks like they were bullish at the Jan/Feb bottom.
Still got some UWTI crackers to feed. Looking for a spike above the 200d then I’ll go neutral for the “big” meeting this weekend.
Astounded by the parabolic move in GDX. I suspect now Gold is spinning the inflation story instead of fear with oil up. But price pays and I have been wrong.
If the Ark is so desired why isn’t TLT being front run this week into the bond auctions.
Adios twtr!!! Lol
i’m a sucker for punishment. went May calls for twtr, feye, and fslr. also picked up some weekly HCA calls in case they pre-announce.
Missed that 10:30 spike in oil. My preset UWTI sell price is 27.05.
Not adjusting it yet.
Read on Twitter of a leak of the big news Sunday regarding oil freeze. I usually fade that, but I sense today that I’ll be able to sell UWTI at 27.05
Pessimism out there is jarring. I listened to about an hour of Bloomberg Radio randomly this morning and it matches up pretty perfectly with what I have been reading (i thought maybe I was just a victim of selective sampling in my reading). Pain is assuredly up, and if there are any companies that can manage to report they earned any money at all, the opportunity for a significant move seems possible.
Sold more UWTI at 27.05. Opened small Short in oil via SCO 105.45