Let me take you back to the temporary high of this trend, back on Tuesday, November 3rd at 11:15 am.
This is that point where the market quiets down. But the funny thing is, my stocks are exploding. We no longer require “the market” to facilitate profits in stocks. The speed is gone, and correlations have been boot stomped to multi-year lows.
In other words, from that point on we talked about how a range would form in stocks from here. As if my headlines and comments from August til now haven’t been spot on, the comments I am getting suggest there are still a few that think I don’t have total control on where the market goes from here. As I mentioned on that very same day, you can have the market analysis back, as I no longer require it.
Alas, I’m going to freehand it for you.
I posted a seasonality chart that suggests the market pauses during this time of the year. If you are playing for market direction, here’s what the next 7-8 trading days ought to look like.
We’ll see a move back to the middle starting tomorrow that ought to pause near 2090 in the $SPX. From there, one quick test of today’s buyer, then back to 2090. Next week we’ll explore the upper end of this range, hitting an 2100 early in the week, then backing off to 2090. You’ll likely see one last hesitation there, then we leave this range, just in time to reach ATH’s before December 11th as I predicted in early October.
I got some great set-ups forth coming. The After Hours with Option Addict crowd is red hot right now.
But really though, there are some huge rotations coming down the pipepline. You will be in front of all of them, if you act now and secure a seat for the NYC Investor Conference Online (NICO). All parts of the presentation will be yours…live interaction, video recordings, PDF of the slides as well.
If you enjoy the content at iBankCoin, please follow us on Twitter
I am actually thinking of buying some SUNE in the lower 5s. Thoughts? I know you have been badly burned by this one, but risk to reward looks tempting.
I’ve owned since 2013.
Have you sold any since the 32 summer top?
100% confidence in this post, that’s good to see.
Me, I’m only 70% confident that we’re heading back down near to August lows, possibly much lower.
We last few bears, although we see a myriad divergences, we are still a tad humble and nervous.
Man, would love to have an actual discussion with you at some point. Until then, please keep leaving the same comment, reworded, every single day.
If I told you I sold every last bit of long exposure and was net short…would you change the message at all?
My views on the market are unaffected by your exposure.
I post merely to offer a view to your readership, some of whom might appreciate a different perspective.
Good luck.
I appreciate it.
Lol humble my ass
I’m disappointed in the level of specificity here, Jeff. The orange line outlining the precise path of the market is moderately fat, giving you some wiggle room. Can’t you lay it out more clearly?
LMAO
ahah eheh
I can’t help but think the solar/oil correlation breaks down soon, perhaps into the spring.
what you mean? Solar will actually go up?
It is my belief that a sea change will occur in the US as we reduce the use of Oil and increase the use of solar. Now having said that, I am unsure which solar companies will win.
amazing stuff. you know exactly where the mkt is going. dont tell the buyside.
your participation in the straight up rally over the past month was very impressive. this is why i have full faith that exactly what you outline here will happen. priceless info. thanks.
LOL at the pic.
That’s a pic of my office.
They have high rises in Utah? 😉
A high rise here is a phone booth
OA, thoughts on out of the money calls for December expiry on spy/iwm/etc. if we bust to ATH? I know you’re a fan of individual names; alas, compliance doesn’t make that easy for me. Would you do January instead?
I guess to be more specific, I own some in the money (barely) tna calls here and am concerned of expiry on the 20th – am contemplating selling completely for a gain on next pop, rolling forward to December, or selling out of money covered calls. Gut says to peel back and go longer expiry (seems to agree with your synopsis that market will run into December), but am curious how you think about it… Thanks as always for your perspective and thoughts.
I’d go TNA…and I might wait til next week probably. December expiry is fine.
Thx as always
Oil: 1% away from the next Fib level: 43.06. Oil should be defended around there, but be wary, no inventories today. I am short.
On Bloomberg: 19 million barrels of oil are due to arrive by ship from Iraq in American ports this month, the biggest influx from that country since June 2012,
US land based drillers: must lower their prices.
“It’s being priced much more aggressively,” said Dominic Haywood, an oil analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. in London. “It’s being discounted so U.S. Gulf Coast refiners are more incentivized to take it.”
No way crude rallies off that, right?
Zing!
There will be 1 – 2% pops in oil during this downtrend. The watershed moment and best R/R for my money on the long side will be when the Hedge Funds hoarding oil in Caribbean finally cave in and dump their inventories. It is expensive to store oil. I look for that number to be in the low 30s/high 20s per barrell.
I have a job so its hard to play those 1- 2% bounces. Occasionally I do if the setup is about 6% down from the 10am high on UWTI. I usually have to hold it o/n. Not a big fan of doing that at the moment.
Sure. Always tough to engage the lower end of a range too.
Entered an order SCO 85.75
Pulled my order. Should have just bought at the market just before it opened.