You are assuredly tired of me talking about this, but I don’t care. One more update.
Since late 2013, and multiple times in 2014, I warned that the conditions of nearly all financial markets were strikingly similar to that of 1997-1998. I blogged of this here at iBC, debated it with fellow bloggers, and now here we are.
I have hit on dozens of signals, statistics, and indicators that were near identical. Aside from melt-up action in some key stocks, I thought it would be fitting to post an update on how the market is following said analogue up to this point.
You may write this off as nothing, but this was literally my finest piece of analysis and work. I was original, accurate, and we were first.
As mentioned in September, we will hit all time highs in December…prior to the release of “The Big Short” in theaters.
See you in the morning,
OA
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Well done!
Will this still be his finest moment if the pattern breaks now?
I think not.
Bullish complacency here is staggering.
Tick tock.
GM, fuck off.
I made a significant sum of money for myself and others. I can tap out here and not take a single bit of risk for another year.
Can’t you just post individual ideas? You market analysis is absolutely awful. Go back to trading whale teeth and horses.
+100
You’re a very sensitive person I see.
My comment directly alluded to your post and its claims.
I care not what money you may have made.
My own analysis will either be proven or not within 2 days.
As will yours. Will your followers hold on to their gains as you tell them……something?
Good luck.
(Trade idea…short IWM, short ES, short DJIA, do it now).
I added 50% to my ftse shorts late this afternoon in the UK.
Currently 4% in the red.
And I have many ounces of gold in vaults around the world.
Please remain calm.
My analysis was proven 5 weeks ago. Yours is out of place, and is becoming a scrapbook of sorts in which we can all point and laugh.
Guys like you are a dime a dozen.
Time will prove all things.
I’m not sure the last 5 weeks will maintain one’s credibility when we’re 25% down shortly, but we will see.
NB…FTSE down 1% today, and I’m back to break even already.
That’s a good point. You guys may be right, but the timing is questionable.
All I want is one more correction, preferably in Nov.
With Janet vacillating monthly, this can come to fruition.
The speed is gone though champ. I wouldn’t position for it. Those guys below all want it. Ain’t happening.
You, OA, are one of the finest traders these eyes have ever seen (even though I’ve never had the pleasure to meet you in person). Well done.
Quite the compliment, thank you.
OA’s presentation at the conference was so kick ass! I feel very fortunate that I was able to witness it with a front row seat. Phenomenal day.
Zombie – I saw you sitting at the front table on Periscope!! Looked like a terrific show.
Zombie what is your periscope tag?
How kind of you Simba — Where is rafiki?
Here is a Jefe’s recent christmas card photo:
[IMG]http://i68.tinypic.com/14eao77.png[/IMG]
I’m not looking for a -5% scare, I’m looking for intraday -1.5% for dollar costing into the market… I should get a few of those before Santa comes down the chimney.
I erred on the Cushing inventories in an earlier post. They were slightly down while inventories are up. Not much difference. Will still look to buy some dips in WTI to hedge my short.
Please explain what about the extreme prices on $NDX or even the technicals on $SPX such as the MACD or RSI(Just to much honestly)? Can markets keep marching higher, higher and higher with such extreme upside movements without even pulling back say ~5-7%? Forget about a full blown correction of 20% this year as we don’t have time – seasonality is against us – no? What are the odds of ~5-7% drawdown here and then your all time highs in December 2015?
The speed is because of the shorts that have to be covered. Yes, I think we trend.
Great work, really. Tons of traders talking about 2011 but this lines up well with 1998-1999 “here we are” as you said indeed. The only question is now what? Just melt up slowly or grind lower on a 6 year bull market isn’t to much? Can we go for 2-3 more years? Where do you think all the buying is going to come from?
Have you seen all the talk about the falling wedge on the VIX? Huge hammer today? What does that mean?
The VIX wedge, yes. There have been at least 10 of them over the last 7 years. Patterns aren’t totally reliable here.
Type 1997-1998
Sorry, also that 10 month top on the $SPX this year what everyone is calling a topping pattern 2134-2080? I am sure you have seen pictures of the head and shoulder – is that bogus?
Thanks mate, great work! Always a pleasure reading your insight!
Interesting that 97-98 had the last low undercut the previous as opposed to the recent move where the jerk lower was not extended, probably more bulls to flush out in the meaty part of the tech bubble.
Part of that is that the 8/24 low didn’t exist. Nobody got those prices.
The IWM took out that low though. Good enough for me.
You ought to revisit the stuff I did here that week. Was a great playbook.
biggest 1 week gain I’ve ever made in the last few yrs of trading.
How did Chub do?
Even better. Wish you could’ve seen
The similarities are UNREAL, and it’s helped me stay (mostly) calm and ahead of the crowd. Amazing work OA. By the way, how did utilities do in the analog? The XLU looks like it could get an ‘Overt warning’ soon.
Agreed it’s astonishing how similar the two are
Truly great work, sir.
Take a bow — you deserve it.
Hi Jeff what are your big winners lately? Looking at your book in tradingaddicts.com
Wait are you saying we top in December? I thought you were looking for 2 more years up.
Excuse me?
We will see FSLR tomorrow. I’m in over 2 years leaning patience.
Use the money for something else?
If it pop, I might sell and go other.
Would be funny to sell and watch it pan out as an investment.
Nasdaq peaked six weeks after PFE did its last mega-merger in 2000….coincidence?
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/02/08/business/pfizer-gets-its-deal-to-buy-warner-lambert-for-90.2-billion.html
Uncanny similarity over last 6 weeks. Considering how much the market and its players have changed since 1998 how do you explain the correlation? Just a mathematical coincidence?
Crap. Your analog chart made marketwatch. Game over.
I noticed that too. Wtf
link?
http://on.mktw.net/1jTGe84
Thank you
Perfect call! Amazing how this year has been nearly identical to 1998. Look forward to 1999 in 2016. It will be EPIC!
Based on my 401K investing on this analysis – up 5.2% for the month of October, 3.5% for the year (I spent a lot of time in cash over the summer).
Actually, total year return are 5.9% – I did a conversion in there that wasn’t factored…
I’m up 120% YTD thanks to all-in bets on DWTI and UVXY. Those were lay ups IMO. Now playing much smaller, but getting chopped up.
holy shit good work
There have been directional moves. I have been in XIV for a month, but not in size like I had with DWTI and UVXY.
Picked up some PYPL this morning, looking just like TWTR yesterday.
These are in a 401K with mutual fund choices, not an IRA
I remember your UVXY play – that was awesome if you were all-in, I definitely understand your posts now – cajones
Didn’t think oil would test the 46.30 fib level, but that’s why I am prepared to buy oil dips to hedge my short.
Oil telling us that more consolidation is needed before the next move. I doubt my short stop will be breached as I will be trading around the position to eventually lower my cost basis down to 68.00 on SCO.
What bothers me is this is the market might force higher rates in the near term. Can stocks/oil handle that? If enough companies have refinanced long term, then yes. Can oil handle a stronger dollar?
Bought a few AAPL next week’s 110 Puts as hedge @ .2
Anyone buying Twtr today?
Looking at next week’s 31 calls.
Added to AAPL 110 next week’s puts @ .15 and doubled down on next weeks TWTR 33 calls @ .17
Bought JD Nov 30 calls @ .71
On my list as well, though I need a bit lower here. Looking at WUBA and ATHM here too.
OA, does your thesis suggest a stronger or weaker dollar going forward? Or doesn’t factor? Again, thx for the iwm analysis
Dollar rallied with stocks, 99-00.
Agree we hit highs in Dec, pull back and rally to a lower high then look out below.
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2015/09/23/flushing-action/
TWTR and ATHM calls.
$FB looking like there is some pressure underneath it.