“The market is made up of people, and to beat it you have to know them as well as you do the thing you’re considering investing in”
~Howard Marks
One of the focal points of my NYC Investor Conference was to throw away all the book you’ve read about technical analysis. All they’ve been good for is programming droves of traders that all think and behave in the same way.
Think about that for a minute.
What is working more and more these days is to understand a “playbook” way to approach trading a stock. Bounce off a moving average? Support/Resistance? Head and shoulders? The list goes on and on.
If you are like me and have watched these things continually fail for the last few years, it is because the machines have now become smarter than you, and you are becoming an easier target to prey upon.
How do you think I was able to navigate nearly every single days outcome in the month of September? Have you seen a scarier or more complex environment? Yet, we managed every price swing and thought process like it was nothing.
If you are relatively new to the market you are unwashed. There is no finer environment to study than in the last 5 years. It encompasses it all.
If you are struggling, it is time to unlearn the ways of the old. I think we have the optimal playbook for increasing your success at this game.
If you haven’t join me in After Hours with Option Addict (extra soft sell).
OA
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He’s right. This year for the first time in five years, that I’m in the green. And that’s because of OA’s teachings. I’m seeing stuff now that I’ve never even noticed before.
Thank you
+1
Nailed it dude. Posted this photo on the last blog, but you need to make this your next post pic… http://www.insidesocal.com/tomhoffarth/files/2014/04/babe-ruth-called-shot.jpg
saved, thanks.
Really for ready to leave LABU or cut in half at least , up almost 50%.
Is it ready? Or squeeze one more day out? Don’t want to get cocky
HOLD
Ahh OA you killin me! Let’s do it !!!! crc crushing skulls today, would like your input on that one. as I mentioned yesterday, it’s been my top pick for a few months.
I laugh at this Jeff..Not that you don’t deserve to have your opinion (“throw away all the book you’ve read about technical analysis. All they’ve been good for is programming droves of traders that all think and behave in the same way.)..but it’s complete bullshit.
I have been trading for over years using that exact TA material. I have never had a losing year. I live in Marin County, and have put 2 kids through 16 year private school..How did you do last year when Fly got hammered? I was +24%..if you did better great…
Ever read Charles Kirk? ..just retired to Hawaii based on trading “throw-away” crap..
Think what you want..but be careful when preaching to others about right and wrong.
Didn’t mean to offend, I just think that it goes beyond old technical tactics and the the mental game is more important these days.
I’ve been trading for nearly 20 years myself. Hadn’t had a losing year until last. I made enough to live off of for two lifetimes in a two year span, and I think I have as much credible experience as any to make a comment like that.
I have read Charles Kirk. He used to link to me from his site for a few years back in 05, 06, 07, etc.
Sorry I hit a nerve. Just another opinion on the internets.
“I have made enough money for two lifetimes in a two year span.”
I don’t think I’ve read a better comeback! LOL!
No problem. The main reason I joined 12631 was to try, after 30+ years, to continue learning from others that think differently. I have definitely learned from you. I just think that it’s misleading (at best ) for new traders to say all the “old” stuff is worthless.
I just think that the market anticipates reactions to many things like this, and I don’t say these things without years and years of examples and experience.
Hey stynydan I need your opinion like I need a dick in my ass – extra rounders
I got a lot of respect for him. He’s no troll.
I cannot find anything about this inventory report for oil that is fundamentally bullish. Having said that, the price reaction tells me to buy oil dips for a few days to give me more room for my stops in my 1.25% allocated short position.
In July, oil kissed 50 after the Inventory and Fed reports then continued to 38. Look these Algos are not original. They repeat their patterns.
My long position in IWM soothed my owwie in SCO which is still a winning trade.
Also the 10yr – 30yr spread flattened to 78-79. The 30 yr isn’t buying the enthusiasm yet. This is out of character with recent upthrusts in IWM
No doubt that understanding trader psychology is important. But robots have to be programmed to react to certain price movements among other factors and technical analysis should reveal those points with some clarity. It’s not buyer psychology when a stock rallies after breaking a trend line with volume. I think in times of turmoil probing buyer psychology is very helpful because large groups of people sharply react to the prior day’s events; usually in the wrong direction. You’ve demonstrated that artfully. But before we embrace a total new approach let’s see how it performs on a repeated basis. Should be fascinating. Great job.
+10.12 % YTD with a stupid mutual fund…
go away.
Go to hell Janet, you pathetic lying piece of trash…
But you aren’t experiencing the pain of an impulsive trade. Which can be washed away with a nice bourbon.
Watching CNBC with the sound off has greatly improved my returns this year!
I started that in 2005. Best move I ever made.
OA, thanks for the heads up on gold in AOWOA. I bought DUST at the low and sold it yesterday for 25% gain.
-hat tip
There are some fascinating cut-off dates in this article but I don’t know if I see all of them heart to heart. There is some validity but I will take maintain opinion until I look into it further. Good article , thanks and we want extra! Added to FeedBurner as effectively