Last week of September, I discussed what was a severe case of Fear (FOMO) that was gnawing at me that week. Mind you, that was at an 1890 Spooz handle and at biggest spending spree I’ve ever gone on in my career.
On Tuesday, I discussed the mood that would be creeping over the market this week at the first sight of strength; “Maybe I Missed Out?” (MIMO). That was near the 2000 Spooz mark.
Generally speaking, we’re at a point in the tape where nobody wants to make any sudden movements. We’re at a spot where you could definitely rationalize the market going down. However, all the charts, signals, and reasoning you had for this cause is not as strong as it once was. As a late buyer, you are praying for a pullback because you would be a genius for not buying up, and properly waiting for lower prices.
Unfortunately, the second leg up will be almost as fast as the first. Participants are still very vulnerable here. After the move is done, you’ll realize you missed the best opportunity of the year. After it is gone, you get to sit and watch things grind off into the holidays. All you’ll be able to say to yourself and those you have the privilege of managing money for is…
“fuck, I missed out.”
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JIG
Stellar read on the market the past few weeks. This article bodes well for it also
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-16/credit-suisse-clients-are-more-confused-than-ever-and-are-cashing-out
Thanks
Awesome article. Can only hope that is the sentiment everywhere. There will be such a rush of crap I’m missing out buying it’ll be nuts.
Short $OSX
You sure this wasn’t a bear trap?
I’m 98% sure.
OA
The tell for me this morning was what you have been keying on lately..speed. The selling was fast and furious confirming yesterday’s slow drift higher was indeed a bull trap. You will see follow through to the downside in OSX next week regardless of market direction. SLB was the nail in the coffin for this sector. As I said very little risk with high reward. Pressed with more put options earlier as I was confident there would be no eod rally.
Look at the $OSX’s body of work over the last 10 days. The low prints were all $177. The move was fast to get to that level today, BUT under $177 it slowed significantly while it got gobbled by orders all through 75-77, closing at 78.5.
I have to argue that this was the most compelling bear trap I’ve seen all week, but have no position.
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/files/2015/10/OSXtrap.png
Great calls on the market in general thought OA. Well done!
Thank you.
Will FIIC follow?
“Fuck it, I’m chasing”
+1.
“New market highs ahead of The Big Short debut in theaters.”
Long oil, biotech, and chemicals into the end of the year.
12/11/15. We got about 150 Spoos in about a month and a half. let’s go!
Selling $SPY bear spread.
Steve’s like…I’m putting an end to this. Again.
Seems like a good play here. I can trade around it, be wrong, and still make money.
I know, just jabbing the short bias. GL.
Thanks. AHWOA on Friday’s?
Always. Zzzzzz….
I’m long but nervous as it seems we’ve always pulled back some post op ex. Maybe this time it will be different?
IWM big volume pocket 116-120…
Thoughts on AAPL OA? It seems to me like it’s waiting for an event and that rally will astonish everyone.
I agree. I think its a couple weeks away still.
Earnings on the 27th. That should get it moving one way or the other.
Something about that Gwph.
Hello.
Worth considering all those longs that have been trapped up here at these levels and a bit higher during the past couple of months.
I somehow don’t think they’ll be sticking with those positions, given shitty fundamentals, notably negative earnings and revenues this quarter. Valuations likely to mean revert in a hurry here. Skew hit a level this week that indicates trouble dead ahead.
And lunar/planetary influences maximum negativity next 2 weeks.
Be prepared.
This is becoming so fucking stupid.
Speaking of traps, why not post your miserable entries on that leveraged short position?
Sure.
All on ftse, currently 3% in the red at Fridays close.
Are my comments not welcome because they differ from yours.
If I’m not welcome, please tell me, I’ll depart on peace.
You’ve beat the same drum here daily for weeks. I suggested perhaps taking it to an actionable idea, rather than to clog up a forum with a voodoo opinion.
Lol, last week, not weeks.
Farewell misery guts.
You’ve been saying this for no less than 6 weeks.
Low thread count, hard with the covers
+1
Ideas:
Long ASGN, MSCC, NXPI
Short: AMZN, FB, NFLX
Nasdaq leadership rotating out of FANG and buying Semi’s. Look for sharp reversal this week out of AMZN (earnings Thurs) and a fakeout-breakout in FB above 100. NFLX is headed to mid 60’s – post-earnings gap down and continuation lower confirms broken chart.