Fear Of Missing Out.
That’s been gnawing at me all day today. Can’t shake it, even as I watch this thing climb, with none of my other indicators supporting it.
If this were it, USD/JPY would be breaking out too. Breadth would be expanding.
Bears are all engaged down here, which makes the pain trade up. Bulls that are waiting for the lows and don’t get them = pain up. I’m hung up on the test or breach of the lows, but perhaps I shouldn’t be? Here’s why…
The low prints in most instruments back on 8/24 we’re not prices that anyone really had access to. By the time most of the computers soaked up all the great sale prices, most instruments were significantly off the lows. Take a look at the profile…you can’t even see volume printed there.
I’ve already started buying a bit this week, but not enough if we rip higher. Ultimately, I still think there is another move lower to trade, but tying this out and getting thoughts out is helping calm my nerves a little.
What say you? We already bottomed? Or we trade lower from here?
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Ha, great picture to go along with title.
FOMO indeed.
Bottomed. Too many people look at JPY when EUR is new funding currency.
disagree what was the safe haven asset in the flash crash? usdjpy still the funding currency
i dont follow your logic. that was 5 years ago.
I have no idea at the is point. I am almost 100% cash and have no FOMO…so maybe we rip now. Thanks for the road map.
Bulls today used yesterday as a higher low mark. They could get flushed on a move to Aug low. Bears rejoice, then we go up to torch them. Twice the pain trade.
SWEEP THE LEG!
I’m only going off of $SPX, and I think we still break the October 2014 low first. Bull trap today, and I think a gap down now panics all the new bulls, emboldens the bears, at the absolute worst spot. It’s glorious.
This is the picture I tried to paint this morning. Once a year I’m correct.
Hard ass work to get it right once a year.
Look at the % of stocks UP VS DOWN ..there is strength to today up
F it…go ALL IN! YOLO!
Bottomed.
I probably bought a bit too much so that probably means a flush so I can be pissed at myself.
I have the feeling we go back down to 16k (dow), up again to 16300 ish …and then hard down.
If this was a biotech bottom, then we should be moving on now unless there is a wash out ahead in biotech and supported by another sector or 3, but I don’t see that happening. Still 90% cash because i am a chicken shit
You should find a picture if this is the biotech bottom…cross post with LULU or something..
$AAPL not up even 1% on a day with 74% market breadth? Today was a biotech rally, I’m hesitant. I’m with OA, more downside.
Market drifts higher until the MPEL Oct 14 calls that I bought today go up 7 fold from 50 cents.to 3.50. Then the next negative surprise gets the bear market primary trend going.again which will last until QE4 and/or helicopters.
This has been a headline / news free sell off. I think we need a headline to sweep the leg.
I think you need to punish the FOMO’s back into cash and embolden the Bears into a move back down. a scary headline solves both.
But I would be unsurprised by a move up from here, because I think there’s a portion of the world just waiting to attack a retest, and to retrace 95% but never give it to them is a pretty huge middle finger. Under positioned for that but have $FSLR shares Friday, $CYBR calls yesterday and $JUNO shares today, and got a great exit from $TZA yesterday if this is it.
Posted this on your previous post but it seems like you had just posted this one: “OA – any opinion that yesterday may have been the bottom? Would setup an epic chase from current levels since everyone was hoping for a breach or a better re-test of the lows.”… Seems like we’re on the same page… And now I’m nervous that if we gap up again tomorrow and I buy in, we reverse lower…
FOMO?
http://www.screencast.com/users/Stelan73/folders/Stock%20Charts/media/15ab5d8f-ea80-4fdd-9350-67049a3650ef
Heres the Elliott wave and fib timing..the answer is down
http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/files/2015/09/sc.png
TC said this tonight …
“With today’s rally we now have confirmed uptrends in the four major indices. However, the fact that these four indices are all uptrending does not totally clear up the P4 – P5 count. Primary IV can still extend into November, unless Primary V starts impulsing throughout October. The current rally is quite important for the medium, and for the matter, long term. The 1+ hour surge from yesterday’s 3:30 low at SPX 1872 to today’s 10:30 high of SPX 1917 looks quite impressive for a kickoff. If the foreign markets can continue their rallies, the US market can continue higher as well. Thus far from the SPX 1872 low we have 1917-1897-1921. Short term support is at the 1901 and 1869 pivots, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots.”
BOTTOMED. Look no further than the biotech index! Support held! Book it.
I’ve got to hand it to you guys, you’re all so convinced we’re about to rocket higher. I fail to see what has changed to support the bullish thesis, other than some analogue that looks remarkably similar.
The liquidity isn’t there to support this market, and fundamentals certainly are not there.
The market won’t rocket higher without FED balance sheet expansion, so with all due respect I think you guys are off by a few months.
Since EVERYONE seems to be on this 1998 analogue, even people in the mainstream financial press, naturally it won’t happen.
With all that said, I would not be surprised to see a huge rip higher from here before the rug is pulled. If you rip it higher it looks like the higher low is in and you have that ultra bullish “W” type reversal in play. So I think they could rip it back to 2011 on the /ES and then the ultimate rug pull.
But then you have the Armstrong “Big Bang” turn date occurring overnight tonight. Does anything happen? Armstrong thinks the turn date may mark a bottom for equities before rocketing into a melt up due to money moving out of bonds. If you have a bond market implosion tho is the stock market really just going to move higher without a reactionary selloff?
You’re going to need QE4, or at least the talk of “almost certain” QE4 before stocks can be supported higher by the FED balance sheet IMO.
So after saying all that, I think I’ll wait to buy until it becomes clear QE4 is in the air.
BOTTOMED!!!
Don’t all cap EVERYONE. I had it first.
I know you did and all credit is due to you for pointing out the similarities, but everyone at this point has caught on to the analogue?
Not sure, I know its possible to exaggerate the term .
I’ve got no problem with that since I’m participating at the moment. If I miss some amazing move higher then oh well. If you’re using me as some sort of indicator tho then I think that’s foolish.
I meant since I’m not participating. Doh! I’m flat and waiting for a spot to initiate either a short or a long swing trade play.
There’s an emotion that comes through pretty clearly. It’s always helpful to identify those emotions in outward opinions. Just take the tone of your comment as an example. It’s like you took offense before even engaging in conversation, and that emotion is important to identify.
Oh please don’t mistake my comments for taking offense to anything. I think you’ve laid out a plausible case, but from the reader perspective it seems like you guys are REALLY convinced in the same vain as BlueStar is regarding the bearish case. Just from reading the blog comments it seems everyone is convinced of the analogue and that is CERTAINLY going to happen.
So my only point here is that the 1998 analogue may not play out since so many eyes are on it. And I’ve seen this analogue mentioned on CNBC, other blogs, etc. I’m not even saying we don’t enter melt up mode. I just think you wait for the bond market to implode and for QE4 to enter the equation. If you take a look at equity prices, they are in alignment with the FED balance sheet as of this moment. I want that selloff to the 1500s to get long. That kind of move down before QE4 will give you the most amazing entry. We’ll see tho. I don’t think you’ll be in trouble here if you miss the first 10% up here. So my approach is to wait and constantly monitor macro news.
Waiting misses opportunity. You know I like to think things forward, rather than in hindsight. Perfect setting, IMO. Bears engaged at lows.
It won’t all anymore responses to your message! LOL. From someone who has been sitting out for the last week or 2, it seems both sides are pretty engaged here, but I will say I’ve been focused on other things lately so it’s hard for me to question anyone else’s opinion on the intraday activity.
I think tomorrow will be very revealing since today was quarter end and to see if any of that Armstrong turn date voodoo bullshit plays out. I think the bond market will reveal itself in short order as to what equities will do.
As do I. Buy some stocks 🙂
Haha. I’ve got a few ideas floating around in my head for running a balanced book of investments. I need to find out how the macro story plays out tho. If we get further easing then $FCX is first on my list as commodities will be reflated.
I read Armstrong as well and i am not sure tomorrow as a turn day is going to mark anything meaningful for markets (even he states this) , he does say down markets heading into the turn day mean a rally is likely (over time) and his crash is a crash in government confidence, not a market per se…..My concern is that the bad juju in markets has traditionally happened in October, so that has me wary, even though I don’t think we are positioned for a crash at this time – I believe Armstrong’s model is calling for a “panic” cycle mid-October -the last panic cycle he called was for the week of 24 Aug, so he does have that going for him
Exactly man. Something is going to happen on a macro scale very soon and I need to see what it is and what the reaction is. China has been selling USTs at a record pace lately, so clearly they are positioning for something. All we’re really talking about here is timing for the melt up. I’m becoming quite convinced we get it via FED balance sheet expansion. I’d rather be 10% late than 20% early.
I’d rather nail the fucking move to the wall, for everyone to see. It sells better.
What if it blows up in your face? How do you sell that? 😉
If you’ve studied and analyzed such things for as long as I have, you gain comfort in the process.
I’d feel a little more uncomfortable if I were rounding up many random internet opinions to pass judgement on my own fate, you know?
“China selling UST’s” – They are taking positions in american companies recently…
AKA the Great Rotation I have been talking about for over a year….wish shit didn’t take so long to unfold.
I’ve been calling the same thing, know how you feel.
IMO they are shortening their duration, I.e., preparing for a bubble in long dated maturities. Some of the stuff I’ve been reading indicates they’re stockpiling gold and short-term maturities.
This is your opinion?
CBOE put/call ratio changed dramatically at 11:30am. IMHO shorts are buying their stops through calls to lock in their short profits. Sharp rally through opex for October. Not in straight line of course. Then resumption of bear market as earnings are “meh” , and guidance sucks.
Skewed by big VIX call buyer….don’t over think this one indicator
too many are hoping/saying this is the bottom..bear markets go down the ‘slope of hope’
ergo, it is not
when no one says its a bottom, its a bottom
wake me up at spx 1730 ..the FXY at 85…oil at 32..gold at 950 and the 10yr at 1.25
Last 7 days everyone was bearish calling for retest of lows. Today almost everyone is calling for rally in Q4. So now I find myself hoping for the panic selling which makes me think we don’t get it. In summation, I have no idea. Let’s see what happens tomorrow and Friday with jobs number.
Seems to me if today was the bottom, 10yr yield would have moved a lot higher (barely moved). Bond moves usually lead, not lag. I always take last day of month (window dressing) equity moves with a grain of salt.
I like friday’s unemployment # for a break up that said I don’t think it’ll be a real one
My 2 cents FWIW is we are going much lower.
It’s all based on the chart set ups that I’m seeing and my target on the NQ is 3300.
What chart set-ups?
Market lacks leadership and hot money is loading up on puts so perhaps you’re onto something…staying vigilant and quick to take profits / cut losses. Thinking AAPL puts might be better play than any of my current call positions.
OA,
What kind of odds you putting on one last flush to test August lows? 50-50? 40-60?
Aren’t you concerned Apple didn’t participate today?
Totally missed my afternoon nap over Apple.
Why would I be concerned?
Everyone interprets charts their own way but to me all the indices have extremely bearish patterns. I also think the YEN looks ready to break out and so do bonds. The monthly close on the indices left very ugly candles in my book so I would need to see much more before turning bullish. Just my take but everyone needs to have one!
Not seeing the sharp rallies from bear markets past which makes me wonder if this is continued liquidation that is finally spilling into FANG and biotech space…struggling conceptually with kind of event required to repair broken charts
FOMO: over anxious day traders hoping the next best trade is right now only to find out it isn’t.
USD/JPY flashing strong sell on all time frames.
Good thing its sprinting higher tonight. Get a new signal. Yours doesn’t work.
I’ll be frank. I have no clue at the moment.
I’ve made 1 trade the past month….a small amount of qqq oct calls. They’re probably dead.