I’ll be putting together another game plan and checklist for the upcoming week later this evening. As for now, the comments section is open.
Got a question? Hit me up.
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Joined Aug 2, 2009
1,847 Blog Posts
OA,
Just listened to AHWOA and wondered how I should try to get more longs on. I’m sticking with common, just because I seem to do better with that and have on FCX, LABU, SOHU, NFLX and a very small WING. At this point, I’m at about 15% of the port.
So the question is, do I just start to add some more stocks even through most are up some or should I wait for pullback, which may not come, or maybe add partial positions and wait for pullbacks to add more.
As you’ve said, the pain trade is up.
H50
The pain trade for a portfolio is to buy stocks up. Make adds into market weakness. East stock will be different, but aim for prices closer to support.
You call always sell puts on stocks you want to buy. Or find new stocks you like that are easier to manage.
Thanks! That’s what I’ll do.
wanted to share this with you and get your thoughts if this is just a fast up in a bear market thanks!
http://thereformedbroker.com/2015/10/04/before-you-get-too-excited-about-the-big-reversal/
Thank you. I too believe the market has a lot to prove. It’s also important to note that the same negative divergences occurred heading into 1998.
“The percentage of NYSE stocks trading above the 200-day moving average has historically ranged from a high of 80-90% (at the peak) to a low of 10-20% (at a market bottom). This percentage fell below 20% at market bottoms in 1998, 1990, 1987, 1981 and 1974.”
We saw 20% breached in August. This was the signal, and this is why the market is divergent.
Best trade into year end?
I really like $TSLA. Credit Suisse really really likes $SCTY.
Either way, Musk is the best bet into year end.
Has biotech, as an index, seen its low for the year?
I bet the downside, and just bet the upside. I was pretty confident on that til I saw Raul’s post. I want to read his opinion, by my initial response would have been “Yes.”
This is based mostly on the action in the greatest weightings in the index and their own positive divergences.
Cool, Raul’s post is what made me second guess as well.
Have you read the report?
Is there an actual report or just his post? His post just says he’s really bearish on bios. No real data behind it
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If only 5% of US households hold stocks, and a vast majority of trading is done by computers – how can sentiment even be relevant?
Sentiment is so very relevant in all aspects. This is why media is such a vital tool to controlling our minds, and why markets do things to get you to participate, or to get you out.
In 1998 – 2000 there was the internet craze …but also the under-appreciated hyper spend on Y2K, e.g., lots of Greenspan liquidity, but also a DC directive to corporate America that they must buy every freakin’ upgrade that any vendor selling anything with a clock wanted to sell. This in order to be safe from the Y2k apocalypse.
Politically, every corporate officer in the US was motivated to take the safe path and buy everything that was being sold. Capital spending spigots were let loose and managers – particularly IT managers – were told to buy everything that they think they might need over the next few years. This due to the favorable tax treatment for spending on things with a clock prior to Y2k.
We definitely had “enthusiasm”. in 1999.
What will stimulate enthusiasm this time?
That question is always easier to answer in hidsight, as none of those points you make were even a thought in fall 1998. Russian financial crisis, plunging commodity prices, turmoil in emerging markets, credit spreads widened, Mexico debt defaults, LTCM, etc.
Election year cycle. Next year we will have the biggest blowout party the world has ever seen.
Oh, and the House of Saud just lowered the price of their crude hoping to smash our fracking production…
What was 1998 and analog of?
What do you mean?
Going back in time, did 1998 itself have an analog?
Every bull cycle has an analogue. 3 phases. That cycle didn’t have an enthusiasm cycle at that point either.
Cool, thanks