Man, these summer Friday’s are getting old at this point. This has been the biggest risk off day that I recall seeing all year. So many familiar names in the -3% OR MORE club, and I end off the week getting smashed.
It’s been a great year this year, but this week sucked bad. I’ve been forced to scale back on a few things, but I don’t like ending the week on a note where the stocks that have outperformed on the year have been liquidated as much as we’ve seen thus far.
The crazy thing here is that the market isn’t fast. That detail is pretty important to consider, because all it does is indicate that money doesn’t leave the market, it just rotates. Notice how the stocks in the +2% or more club are of the quality variety today.
I’m going to sit here and pout for the rest of the day. Trading sucks.
OA
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+1
Was happy to see $Z defending exactly where you predicted last night. Also added to my long term $VA position at $27.80 on the same logic (as predicted last night, I, the “idiot market” proxy bought slightly down from yesterday).
Yea, had to ditch $ATHM and I really didn’t want to. Still holding $Z and feel stupid because something tells me it should be the other way around.
Hey Jeff – Sorry to hear that man. There are worse things in life though as I’m sure you’re aware.
I actually took this selloff as an opportunity to offload some “quality” stocks and put more into Z. I really, really like it down here from a longer term perspective. Did I say really?
Yeah, I get over portfolio fluctuations pretty quickly. Just wanted to empathize with those that don’t.
I bought $Z calls today. Had a good look at it in AHWOA last night. Still love this idea.
I know this doesn’t mean that much for technical guys but some things to consider:
Zillow spent 51% of their revenues on advertising. Rightmove (largest RE site in the UK) and REA (largest in Australia) spent 5% and 9% last year. If Z spent 9% last year like Rightmove they would have done over $3 EPS and if they did 5% they would have done nearly $3.50 EPS. Given this, I think looking at price to sales is more relevant.
Right now they trade at a 7.67 p/s on CY estimates and 5.9x next years estimates. I’ve typically found that longer term winners in the internet/tech space (which I’m quite sure Z will be one) rarely trade below 8x sales.
This means a ton.
There’s that point where fundamental value and technicals come together. Like $LULU did last year. This seems to be that point for sure. You can feel it in how it trades.
We found our house on Zillow. Our agent and his market alerts (via two different services) were useless. One of them wouldn’t even run on our phones.
Sucks to be me too. I’ve got 430 July 90 calls in BABA
Herpes Stock.
Yes, I’m down this week. Stopped on OAS and CSIQ. Still holding VSLR, FSLR and PCLN and SCCO. But everything is down. Down about 3% for the week. Not good.
On a brighter note, I bot gasman’s TNP and stalking TNK this morning, thank you sir. They are pulling back a bit, so might be worth a look.
FRO anyone?
I love it, actually
come on in…waters tepid
Glad I didn’t quit my day job
need some homies, my man.
Been there, done that. I’m good.
dat Beazer thou!!!!
That pic of Steve Carrell is absolutely priceless.
Perhaps life will be simpler now that my balls have been removed
I lost my balls at “I do.”
My balls are in my wifes purse..she told me I wouldnt need them anymore
My wife forgot about my balls when the kids came. The market remembers my balls whenever they reappear out of hiding, so it can play whack a mole with them. Not sure which is worse
OA,
What your thoughts on PCLN here. I just got stopped out. Should I put it back on and lower my stop?
I lost a premium on this. 0-2. I won’t trade that stock again here, but like $Z…the third time is usually the charm.
Thanks. Hard to know here when risk will come back on.
Yea, wondering if I should get back in ATHM but can probably get it under 47 is this is a May-June sentiment chart playing out
OA, Your advice on not holding Chinese stocks whose share price was below the going private offer was spot on. You said no arb opportunity, move on to the next trade, and you were right.
CMG looks good for next week
Closed a position in $CPL to add $Z shares to my calls.
Can’t figure out what to make of oil, though my shares of $BTE, $AR, and $HCLP seem to have an opinion on the matter.
Taking a good hard look at $HT, and $HABT is back under $33. Can’t tell if $SCCO is offering me one last chance, but I’m a bit weary of adding additional risk here.
That’s what I’m seeing today.
If EXODUS says QQQs were oversold yesterday, it must be screaming BUY BUY BUY today.
wow,,shitty sentiment in the house
How so?
you don’t think so? interesting
I’m pissed….didn’t seem that bad on here today…but that’s why I asked. Wondering what you were referring to.
My buddy just told me his friend is starting a credit spread newsletter. He’s been “killing it” making $50 per $500 spread on SPX. Volatility in 3, 2, 1…
Exodus has been on fire! I mean in a bad way.
Well I guess the market just got fast.
You’ve been waiting months to type that…lol.
Thats a bit unfair. Im a fan and follower of you Jeff and i know there will be set backs along the way. I just hate having my portfolio do a round trip back to its levels from the beginning of this year.
Sure, we talked about putting hedges on last week. Hope the open was better than you had expected.
For what it’s worth. This was from last week.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-23/smart-money-just-sold-record-amount-us-stocks
From the always reliable, always unbiased ZeroHedge.com
Its a report from Bank Of America. Did you read it? Despite the fact ZH probably stacks gold and canned beans in his fortified basement there is some quality content in there as long as you chose to filter it through your bull shit filter.
stops were hit on all my holdings last week…started a position in FRO..its minimal…90% caishe..
I had thought this would be an amazing “sell the rumor, buy the news” opportunity if/when it actually happened after so many stops and starts and with a telegraphed deadline. We shall see I suppose. If the futures market is a reliable indication I may have misjudged. My portfolio of trades is insulated from direct exposure (except maybe interest rates for housing), but if the wave is tidal I am not opposed to ending up in a bit more cash.
BZH made a new high today…because they don’t give a fuck and don’t build homes in Greece.
Dam man, worst timing on solar
SUNE and JKS gains vs. VSLR and CSIQ losses. I’m ok with that.
BABA FSLR are sinking,,,,, expect/expected a long way ahead, still hurts.
when the shit goes down you better be ready.
better be ready! (insert high pitched voice)
OA – any chance you could post your intra-day McClellan? My Macallan is about to read 80ml.
-50 right now