Ugh.
Well, I have managed to absorb a greek uppercut these last few days, and have been trying all morning to determine if this is the beginning of something or the end of something. I’ve been able to endure market weakness all year, but this move was much different from all the others, obviously.
A $VIX above 17 means strategy has to change. Since we’re that close…I have not done anything today other than play a few scalps in the $NQ_F/$TF_F.
The $NYMO has traded in a relative range this year, getting as low as -65. We’re -50 right now.
I’m considering getting back into $SPLK if the tape firms up. Otherwise, I am in no rush to do anything here.
OA
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OA – I packed my pipe & pulled up the Ouija (light list today) and sorted by industry to look for clusters of interest. Only thing of note was biotec with a sparse 4 names: DVAX, LJPC, PACB, PTX. That LJPC has an interesting longer-term chart..
OA, please thank your brother in law for the ravaging of my account.
OA –
I should have learned to trust your brother in law signal. He was very wrong almost to the day.
No no, he was wrong on the HOUR. It was insane!!!
the good news for him is that whatever was on his list is now cheaper. lol
Continuing to slowly add to $Z. I prefer investing in monopolies
I think this is one of the best trades in the market right now.
Hope you’re right, although I’ve been wanting to buy and hold this sucker for a long time and at 7x sales it seems like this is a pretty reasonable time to start buying.
One thing I think about it how much this would be worth if it was a private company. $10 Billion? $15 Billion?
Yes, I agree. a 6 to 9 month hold at minimum.
That’s the minimum holding period I’m looking at. Most likely 12 to 18 months.
When it gets out of this Trulia takeover / Greece / Puerto Rico funk, I do see it going on a tits ripping move to the upside.
How is Z a monopoly?
They own about 75% of the market for online/mobile real estate and its all trending that way (for advertising / listings etc)
Sorry that was vague…Z gets like 75% of the traffic for online/mobile real estate…i.e almost entire audience for real estate listings goes to Zillow / Trulia. Ad spending eventually migrates to wherever the audience is in all other internet sectors. Right now, Zillow only has about 5% market share of total ad spending for real estate ($500 Million vs $10-$13 Billion ad spending market) so there’s major, major upside. And with most online/mobile networks, the leaders get the lion’s share of the ad spending.
Just an anecdote, but I found Redfin to be much better in terms of info when I was purchasing my house a few years ago.
That was probably before Z started getting listings directly fed to them from all of the MLS’s.
Tried to sell a house recently by listing on Zillow only (no MLS). Got very little response …except from a handful of realtors looking for a listing. About 85% of buyers still shop and buy through agents. Don’t know why …humans, yeesh.
Panic is setting in…bears might want to start ringing the register.
Any thoughts on FITBIT (FIT) ?
None.
They should have named it “nag”.
OA – I haven’t jumped in yet, but do you like that EBIO we talked about last week, here? Has done a pretty good job of not going down…
Yeah, I do like that one/
JUNO and FEYE are starting to look very interesting down here.
Hat tip to QCI. Called this like a champ.
A little credit is due to your brother in law. He helped confirmed my conviction. I’ve lightened up considerably into the close though. It’s hard to imagine we just continue to waterfall with no countertrend.
This could end up being an epic dip buy if all this geopolitical BS works out. Until the sovereign debt issues are solved though all I’m doing is trading intraday swings up and down.
Really interesting stat from today’s session. ES low was 2047.25. This just so happens to be the 150% fib line from 2009 low. What I’m thinking will happen is we probably break this overnight and set up a breakdown of old lows to say 2030 tomorrow. From there we rally back 10-15 points in typical v-reverse fashion. At that point it’s critical that we put in a higher low and continue to v-reverse. If not, then the next big level I see is 1938.75, or the 138.2% fib extension from 2009 low. Going to be an interesting week.
Greece has been baked into the market for years but it is time for a correction.
Don’t worry, Obama and Mrs. Akerlof will never let us down; ZIRP forever.
Is more pumping in the works?
SPX support in the lower 2040’s or 2019 range with an uptrend to follow …
Brother in law is the new gartman.
So bad. He’s actually good in a way.
He has done this many of times.
WNR anyone
Just highlighted these in AHWOA last night.
my FRO sagging bro..