Honestly, the market feels as tentative here as I feel. I don’t know if there’s a clear cut read to this reaction yet.
The VIX has made it back down to the lower end of its range, which means that might be playable from here, unless the market no longer fears the outcome here and mindless chop is here to stay for the time being. Seeing the reaction to the ECB, it would seem like the appropriate compromise since the market always finds a way to stay propped up.
The USD/JPY isn’t totally confirming this all just yet, as it is propped right in the middle of its range. Bonds have rolled a little and stocks look like they might see the upper end of this range.
How to play this is a whole other can of worms. The volatility has throw off any risk-rotations, so rolling from one group to the next has been completely disrupted. Many market favorites, like FB, BIDU, AAPL, etc have been up for 3-4 days now. Hard to chase up.
The risk stock category flourished yesterday, which I think is an important signal, but I always think that. I can’t tell you how close I am to shifting around long term money to buy bullshit stocks like P, ANGI, MBLY, DDD, and logging out of my IRA for a year.
The best outcome here is a dying VIX. At least this calms the market and lets us slowly reengage the options market again.
More later,
OA
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To me, it looks like the VIX finally broke down out of it’s uptrending support, so that’s good. I’m still cautious ahead of the weekend and the Greek vote, but I nabbed some BAC calls for a rebound in financials.
Hah, great episode of Silicon Valley!
“Hey guys there’s totally a move to be made here but im too pussy to have any conviction”
Holy shit, OA sounds like a superstar that had his nuts cut off and is too scared to get back into the game
Never thought the day would come where Id say I miss that homo Chess
day 4 unidirectional is often prickly, no doubt, look at this $GOOG though, sub $500 was the deal of the year
Just buy spoos and go play some World of Warcraft.
@ringo – chess has a separate blog that he posts his ideas on. Been pretty money so far this year
Wish we could get a nice follow thru in risk stocks and crude for once
Big cap tech is where it’s at — MSFT, NFLX, TWTR, BABA, FB, WDC and non-tech GM, JCP, WMT, HD, LOW
I got weeklies in QQQ, GOOGL, TWTR, AMZN and LNKD before that last little spike. Feels like a trend day. Let’s see where we are at close though.
Calls that is. OA, you should totally spike the football if the market goes to new highs.
Nah, just want to recover quickly from last year and get back on track. I give a shit about market calls. Looking forward to an easier road is all.
So are you bullish here moving forward?
I’m bullish for the rest of today. This market is a fickle bitch.
Honestly, I’ll be a megabull if we breakout, until fall probably. I need to see which direction this market is going before making big plans. It’s just day to day trade until then. A stock like PCLN is ripe for a huge run here if we’re going to new highs.
See, I’d think that is where bears should get bearish. New highs has been the epic place to trap and fade the crowd.
After seeing what the market has done here this week my loose gameplan is a run up to highs here potentially. I think you play for a breakout there, sell it after breaking out and wait to see what happens on a retest. It’s hard to imagine a quadruple top or whatever it would be in the RUT.
I’m going to need to renew my TA subscription since I’m obviously a lot more active in stocks than I thought I’d be. Is the email [email protected]?
Yep, that’s me. Chat soon.
Need some opinions (not the trolls). I have ANW from 9 dollars when OA went through the energy stock. When you look at the chart, it feels like it will coil up for a while and then continue going up or shit on itself. What would you do… sell and reallocate or hold onto it.
I’d sell. That’s an epic run for as shitty as the market has been. Great trade.
Thanks – it was your call and I just made the trade.
I would reallocate into some biotech.
biotech? looks awful extended to me here what stocks have your eye?
To be honest, I would like to add to GERN and throw a bone at MNKD. Played MNKD from 4 to 9 and feeling the itch to jump back in again.
Agree with Bio.Trades in it’s own world to some extent.Lots of secondaries are being bought up. KERX .Also JUNO KITE look good to me
I would have liked to play JUNO but I cant trade it.
BMRN as well.