Well, based on our plan last night, I came out swinging. I picked up BABA calls and GOOGL weeklys and am stalking GOGO.
From failed rally, to failed gap down, this market is doing its best to frustrate everyone before it makes the move it wants to make.
To update you on my oversold signal status, my long term signal line touched down in oversold, while the intermediate term signal is registering oversold as well. Short term signal line has not yet crossed into oversold.
I still view this as a market with limited downside, and major upside risk.
OA
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Upside Risk a misnomer with the greatest meaning.
Money for my bitches
What we need to do is get Bchu and Bruce Keller in the same room to discuss ideas like some sort of Special Olympics fucking think tank. Everybody wins: those two can finally make some money charging subscriptions to the rest of us who will be falling over ourselves trying to get a piece of their guaranteed-fade idea generation. Take my money, fucklets!
when was the last time you’ve brought a good idea? easy to just be OA’s little fluffer isn’t it?
i love everyone here, but autumnalcity has helped me make me probably the most $$$ out of the OA community
how much is subs?
He lead from the front on JDST below 11 and is leading from the front on FEYE at THE low yesterday. 2 examples off the top of my head. Don’t be a toad.
OMG LOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Damn this is funny!
Street taking a big bite out of VSLR, letting the sweet plum juice trickle down!
How is this a failed gap down? We are only 2 points up off the low. I would think 3pm is the tell…follow thru or buyer defense.
i think we test 192 on the SPY. thursdays low and where we reversed.
I’ve already seen the close.
I know everyone is puking over solar, but SOL really does look attractive to me, here…
I think NOV looks amazing here. Great relative strength and it’s breaking multiple day highs. RSI so low, energy needs to bounce sometime.
Jeff,,,please give Fly a free membership to TA so he can perhaps stay focused, and on task.
IWM right now down less tan DIA and SPY. That signal risk is coming?
YOLO. Put on $MA Oct 72 @ .40
GPRO calls best thing I ever bot.
GPRO puts one of the worst I’ve ever bought. Eskimo brothers!
oops, what have I done! Long D yolo oct18th@$72.5 and short NOW yolo oct18th@$55
-seems rational to me!
Still holding GOGO Nov calls OA. I have a question for you maybe you or someone can answer because I don’t get it. I have a stock on my radar for leaps but don’t like the action I’m seeing for the last week so have held off. The specialist keeps closing the common at “even” or a penny each way despite the stock trading millions of shares per day. It is a very liquid stock with a large short position. How is a specialist able to pin a stock to a penny thought the day despite it trading millions of shares? Head scratcher for me. Symbol is exel. Thank you for any insight!!
Wait, you think the market maker is keeping the stock pinned?
Market makers like volatility. They don’t usually care what way it goes, they just want movement. When spreads widen on options they make more money.
The NASDAQ is electronically traded with bids and offers posted by market makers, not an auction market with a specialist like the NYSE. The stock you’re looking at trades in incredibly narrow ranges, so it’s most likely just coincidence when it closes up or down a penny. There is no collusion between market makers. You didn’t ask for my advice, but I would find another stock to trade – there are thousands to choose from that trade better.
Scott- It is not that personal.
OA, I’m recognizing a familiar consolidation pattern in AAPL. I am short.
An hour later with still no follow thru down and I’m starting to believe you might have indeed seen the close.
3pm is still my target. Shorts throw in the towel eventually.
I dreamed it over the weekend.
you don’t think longs throw in the towel? We’re hitting near lows while making lower highs.
bot BABA Oct 90s for $1.10
in at 1.35
u guys think the market is bottoming but expect AAPL to break down and not up ?
>market bottom
>aapl breakdown
pick one
Look at Dec, Feb and June. Market went without AAPL.
That’s what I thought too. I see pinning at option expiry but it’s not expiry. Thats what is strange. Will keep watching for now. Too close to 52wk lows to jump in just yet.
Meanwhile I’ll continue to hold GOGO!
It may not be pinning. It may be that the stock has found value.
i missed adding some VSLR 13 yday, but not mad about adding a little right here, reasonable spot
Jeff is Breadth horrible today? Volume on most of my watchlists is a 1/3 of normal
The % of stocks advancing vs those declining is currently just under 30%.
that was a huge block that just traded in BLOX…elevator up!
Does the failed multi-year trend line of the SPY, AND rejection of it mean nothing?
Lol. Trendlines.
Just throw shit at a wall, Bruce, and see what sticks
OA – I just read where a Dr. is treating Ebola patients with the GSK drug Lamivudine (meant for AIDS) resulting in a survival rate of 87%… Not sure there’s much profit in the drug, but the chart is down at an interesting level…
Not bad for the long haul, Unc.
What does 87% mean? As far as I know, a really good % go to full life expectancy with current medicines. 87% live to 72 years old or more? How did they figure that out so fast?
Bruce – This doctor is administering the drug meant for AIDS to confirmed Ebola patients. Of those he has treated with Lamivudine, 13% have died, as opposed to the greater than 60% death rate they are observing over there.
It’s good to be alive
I had completely not seen the Ebola part. That’s what I get for skimming and then doing a reply.
Could you argue that GPRO has hit an enthusiasm high here and puts would be a good idea??
Not sure I would want to argue that. There there are plenty of stocks going down. Start there first.
Lets go bears. flush this puppy.
No chance take a look at JNK. You will be chase buying at all-time highs soon.
Wait, you are long, wanting to get flushed?
Wow, will NMBL ever stop going down? wish i never heard of that stock. biggest loser of the yr so far.
Perhaps you should purchase some puts on that badboy?
NQ coiled up on the smaller time frame. This thing is going to move in a big way by the end of day.
Which way is the question….
if bchu says flush then it must be up!
down
still balanced market. still slow move. so many gaps, dangerous market.
So here is goes.. my confession. I am moving of 5 accounts over to a financial advisor (good friend who owns a firm) I will manage my other 2 with an OA subscription. It is to hard to have the time to manage accounts with 2 toddlers (soon to be three) throwing shit everywhere and demanding any remaining energy I have at the end of the day.
Gold is up today, miners are down – tomorrow should be a fun day. Where’s our nougat head?
Jeff,
CNN Fear & Greed Index at 3 .. is it Bullish signal ?
Yes.
don’t you think that indicator a pure joke? maybe -100 can be reached?
maybe be /es 1900 is in the making…
I am just going to start drinking and hope jeff’s signal trips soon.
Buckle up boys #flush
#timestamp. ROFL
this could seriously by an all timer. Long NQ 3969
You are a champ dude. Opportunity is unreal here.
dude… I think you jinxed it
I think you plugged it…
lucky dude. bchu indicator!
Hey chiefton, must be up right??
My bad OA. Yes im short via spy puts. Long some individual stocks. (More medium and long term).
Will flip to calls at eod if we do not break 194
New lows for the day, but no breach so far.
TLT enthusiasm…
The weekly chart has actually followed the sentiment cycle very closely
Out -2. It was worth a try!
of course, it can bounce, then gap again.
in 3966
back in 3969.
My OA Troll indicator is at a high for the day. All the trolls are coming out today.
out -2 the bchu indicator not working right now
it need to clear 3970 on volume to be the real deal.
IWM sentiment on stocktwits just flipped bearish
.
GLUU?
Looking to buy?
What?
one last shot buy NQ 3954
You hold these overnight ever?
Jeff what’s the ATR at for Nasdaq
#timestamp lol!
sometimes but it completely depends. I usually don’t with volatility this high.
This is the trade you stay up with all night.
yeah thats to much for me. Big enough movement intraday in this environment to make money so no real need to hold overnight.
Oil getting nut punched
and yet OIH is green
it sure does feel like we have some 200MA tests on the indices before we bounce.
Rarely overnight for index options, especially if i have a nice gain already Just closed my puts for a sweet little gain. Equities ac not pretty but this sure helped.
OA,
Do you think Thursday’s low will hold S&P?
the thurs, august 7th low????
yes, that one.
Jeff you’re either a mad genius or just insane. It’s all looking like a rollover.
Bro, I got this.
I vote mad genius. I bought BABA – worth the risk.
+1
sold 1/2 +10
Applause
@Chiefton I think you nailed it this time
CRTO holding up all day long.
Holy Shit!!! I feel like the band is still playing while the Titanic is sinking…where are the buyers at
Busy rearranging the deckchairs…
OA
of the current holdings, what do you like the most here?
BABA, MBLY, CRTO, LOCO, CRM, BAC
All things considered, YELP, CRTO, LULU holding up fairly well today.
OA – thoughts on my MBLY Oct 54s? Take 150%? Or let them ride?
It’s green in a shit storm. I’ll take my chances…but a gain on the long side in this is an awesome gift.
Thank you sir. I took the bird in the hand. Great stock.
We really need a CNBC Markets in Turmoil show tonight…
In BAC Jan 17 calls .82
Anyone else like KNDI here… I know it look strange but it is consolidating and looks like it is loading the springs to the upside.
out last 1/2 +6.
Tough market but this should be good support.
lucky u.
and here comes the puking…
Thx for the chiefton indicator theuout the day. One of my best intraday trading days of the yr
This sell off felt different
Not as correllated
They did it again! EXEL closes precisely EVEN on 3 million shares traded. This makes a week of the specialist pulling that off. Amazing. LOL. Funny to watch.
Nymo vs SP diverge continues.
https://imageshack.com/i/f0E6D3Oyp
Don’t they make a killing if employing the butterfly trade? IE if they can make it move at a ZERO sum daily (no volatility) they make a killing? It’s good to be in the drivers seat! Wow
Tried a tight stop YOLO on TNA when it looked like things were stabilizing about 25 mins ago. I got stopped out before I could even post the ever-elusive #timestamp.
Ugly close.
Now THATS what i call a selloff. Oblierated anyones gains from friday.
Couldnt get myself to buy anything long at eod. Volume picked up big tine the last few minnutes of the selloff
Isnt today’s action a “lower low” in the russell? Deconstructive?
I thought it was a very constructive close.
for the shorts maybe.
“How much money did you lose today?”
“All of it.”
-<1% today.
…Crickets…
130 comments not exactly crickets.
Bot this “dip” today with very small positions where the charts were sitting on some good support and generally showing some volume gaps above. ALEX, NAT, HA, and BABA (BABA cuz didn’t want to be left out). Pretty scary here, but with so much bearish sentiment, the market can really hurt a lot of traders with one stroke.
For my style, initiating options is great here. At least I know my downside and can plan for it. Only have one large equity position (BHI)
So lets see:
Solars have/are breaking down
3D stocks look like death
China stocks look like death
What does this say about the market’s appetite for risk? and sentiment? Perhaps these have been a leading indicator?
Thanks for the hindsight.
Anything you want to give me for tomorrow?
humility
Eat a bag of dicks. Let’s see you put your ideas out there on a daily basis. Go back to whatever bridge you crawled out from under, troll.
Potential H&S possible but test of 94 level on IWM is very very likely, don’t rush in and buy the lows, worth waiting for confirmation rather than buying calls every single day. https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pi83tL4v/
sorry I meant QQQ
IWM is all about the close tomorrow, if we break down or not https://www.tradingview.com/x/xvFxcuXa/ BEARISH any way you look at it IMHO
i meant the close on friday lol my brain is melting
If it makes anyone feel better I can not confirm a cycle top yet.
now I can sleep better tonight… was about ready to pimp out the wife to make up for these losses.
Dow Theory requires all markets to break upward trend and make lower lows until bear is confirmed. So until the other markets follow along with Russel, it is more likely to be a failed H&S.
Also interesting that the dollar is up like 10% since July while Russel down like 10% so is Russel really down or is it just seeking parity to dollar being up?
I guess its Jeff vs Kass…
http://www.thestreet.com/story/12904902/1/kass-on-the-market-i-am-throwing-down-the-bear-market-gauntlet.html?kval=dontmiss
JNUG could be setting up
Insightful commentary
Not that bad , seriously these tiny 2% positions are harmless and were bound to hit a biggy sooner or later . Think of it this way , a 500K account using only 2% and participating in all 20positions .Let me use calculator (only take a second )…….oooooh @ 10K a pop and 20 failed positions that comes $200,000.00 . Ouch!
That’s O.K. , we’ll make that 200 K back with just one big trade . We’re due !!!! And there are volume pocket thingys everywhere !!!!!!!!!!!
oops ,we’re
my results are skewed due to somehow missing a lot of mega winnner trades this year. Some i passed on, some i just flat out missed the alert and was too late to enter by the time i saw.
If we open around these levels I’m buying.
Bot some BABA and GOMO this am. And Puts in PCLN. Trying to hedge myself if we turn down. Can justify buying TZA way up here
this market is relentless.
seems like an inside day to relax today.
/es 1900 on friday is good looking
@Chiefton I blew one account up trying to trade through 2014. After I doubled my portfolio in 2013. Now I’m far more conservative…lol
2014=No Joke
Jeff thoughts on MJNA here? My home state of Florida is voting on a bill for passage Nov 4th figured that would be a huge catalyst for it. Looking at it for an investment not trade
Long term, I’d buy a few. Treat it like a call option though.
I bot bloc Nov calls and hedged with gpro puts from 95-96
ARWR is a POS.
Whats going on with SHLD? Spreads are
WIDE
vendor halting shipments