Look, I started writing about the prospects of VSLR almost a year ago. Having in place an monster infrastructure from door-to-door security sales to use for growth in the residential solar market is a compelling reason to look at this company. I have a few acquaintances that are pretty high up in this organization that have physically shown me how fast the company is growing. That growth rate is what interests me in this company.
Aside from this, the IPO couldn’t have happened at a worse time. Oil prices haven’t been able to hold a gain, and traditional energy stocks are on a slippery slope here. It’s not just VSLR that is trading lower, its the entire space.
Because of these horrific conditions, I said at the time of purchase that I was only taking a small position for starters, that would commit me to building it in the days ahead. I’m sure that because this company has been on my radar for a long time, that this means some might have gone overboard in positioning here.
I have a longer term bias on this stock that I am looking to take advantage of. This price action in the short term will help me build at some pretty decent prices. If you are looking to invest here, as am I, and have only started small, we’ll be looking for the best prices possible in the short term to average down, while watching this action in the overall energy space.
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Thanks for the update. Down 30% from starter position 4 days ago is never a good thing. But we will build it up
Horrific environment for this one.
i am thinking how other high beta growth ones will crash like PCLN and never see the high days again.
Quick, tell us now which ones you are thinking.
lol
Just one?
Shoot! I’ll start a small position at this level….
welcome to die hard club. lol
Jeff, could you briefly touch upon the AAPL short trade? I’m growing fond of this idea here. Just wanted to get your thoughts on this… appreciate it.
Quiet distribution at the highs. You know how we’ve observed ATR breakouts at tops? Check the ATR on AAPL.
Thanks for your post! It’s tough to watch the lack of bids each day but like you said, small position, paper loss, let’s find a new entry to build a cost basis for when the whole sector gets some legs.
OA, looking for your thoughts on MXWL technically,should I see if it trades over 8.50 to add?
Yeah, but that weekly chart looks sick.
I know you say never bail out into the hole but the freefall made me nauseous; cut 60% of position
Had you gone heavily, you don’t have a choice. You have to bail.
Makes me fell a little better
OA, What’s your stop price on NMBL? Looks to me its right at the 23.90-24 support level.
My premium
That organization should be outlawed!
You work with them?
no one appreciates NAMBLA humor attempts any more
My bad. It was a long day.
I am down 12% on this issue. It’s inconceivable how anyone on this board has not established at least a starter position with the price actions since IPO.
XNET $20 by Christmas like TWTR last year!
Calling it
LOL. Why?
XNET $6.21 by Christmas. #stamp
Read it on Stocktwits gotta be true:-)
One of my clients is a district manager for them. I know all the ins and outs of this company. They have a strong culture a lot of their employees believe in the company in an intense way.
I was trying to caution him on his contribution to the IPO. They stifled how much employees could contribute he got only 150 shares and they are all dumping money in the aftermarket day of. Down an easy 20% here.
People got to understand if your going to own this stock long term you need dry powder ready to go to manage the position as well as patience. It will go in favor and out of favor over time regardless of how great the company is.
OA, don’t you think the uptick in QQQ ATR has a lot to do with AAPL’s ATR uptick, if you look at GOOGL, AMZN, NFLX, etc.. They are all still very low.
No, ATR is measured by price movement. Its relative only to the instrument. Google how it is calculated.
speaking of GOOGL. How do you feel about it right here OA?
THNX!
how many homes has VSLR installed solar panels to over the past 4 years.
I am looking for the growth rate. I read there were over 12000 installs in 6 states(http://www.dcurbanmom.com/jforum/posts/list/311927.page) as of 10/29/2013. Door to door sales must pay pretty well for this valuation. Hang on there is a Kirby salesman at the door.
Last quarter SCTY grew from 29 to 35% of residential market share.
VSLR grew from 7 to 15%.
Growth rates.
I’ve said this since the day of the ipo you need to read the financials in the s-1 filing. Those shares are trading at 80 p/s
I started with 1000 shares down 4,000$ who gives a shit! I plan to build this up. Jeff isn’t an idiot, no one wants to loose money. If you want to play you have to pay! Getsome!
Best wishes to the traders here.
I see signs in front of houses for Solar City completed jobs. I got the impression this deal is basically a new mortgage on the house, and these home solar companies are actually In the financing business, and the house may be collateral. Solar has a terrible ROI, and homeowners may be avoiding this reality with the no down loan, to their regret later.
Maybe I’m mistaken.
I get that the focus here is making money trading, carry on and trade well.
I got solar for my pool back in 1998 here in Central Florida.
Waste of $$ and am sorry I got it.
It extended the swim season by a mere 6 weeks or so and the panels had to be put on racks on a fat roof portion of the house (because I have lots of trees on 3 acres).
Every damn time I have to patch the flat roof for leaks the panels have to come down at a cost of $50 to come off and $50 to go back on. I have 6 panels.
When I replace the flat roof (soon) I will have the rack and panels removed, shut off the solar at the pumps, and trash the whole mess.
Solar and roof=leaks and never again.
Ain’t worth it.
The economic for solar in Florida do not work yet. Their main utility FP&L is very anti-solar when it comes to anti-distributed rooftop solar – they want to own the production. The price of power from the grid is less expensive than what solar companies can sell it for and still cover their operating costs. It’ll be within reach soon in that state. The mass marketable product is a solar lease with $0 down, 20% savings against the utility with a controlled or 0% annual increase on the solar bill. It’ll just take time for the economics to work.
For those of you stressing about VSLR, I had invested in GTAT for my mom’s account as a long-term investment and had passed up selling when it had gotten back to 18….that is something that sucks – I am just glad I didn’t increase my stake like I had planned…
I would like to voice my displeasure with LULU. We had a great run in September and I thought she loved me. She proved to be a fickle bitch. I have a rather large position of October 45 calls set to expire worthless (not to worry…I will survive). I’ll take breakeven, or even less of a loss.
they just need to post an earnings date, then I’ll watch as they use their solar panels as guillotines to chop the heads off the short sellers
My account was up 0.8% today, beat that bitches. I’m only down now 93% since March 2009, my hedge fund will rise to the top.
You guys hear the bear growling? Oh nevermind, thats Mark the bearded fellow in my bed.
TIMMAY out
can i ask OA, beside the growth rate that interests you, why this over the other solars ?
left you a message in the ppt
Not much chatter around here.
When we talked about pain trade today in AHWOA yesterday I said it was gap down followed by a green afternoon. Looks like we got the first part,sure hoping for the green afternoon. At least TWTR is giving me some love today.
Failed rally yesterday, failed gap down today.
FAIL.
The gent with the joystick, operating the October markets is trolling EVERYONE.
Looks like May all over again.
@Jeff too funny.
On the bright side there are buyers below. Waiting on the ole V Shape
Long BABA and GOOGL calls here.
I’m still holding GOOGL from Thurs. I still think we’re in a bottoming process with a potential rally to 1160ish for the RUT. Good luck.
OA, your oscillator didn’t happen to signal oversold on this morning’s gap down in the IWM did it?
ALNY looks lovely
EEM about to go green. Still holding a big position in EDC from a couple of sessions ago.
OA thoughts on MLNX?
important test here.