There are just two things I have purchased today.
I purchased September GOOGL options, looking for a repeat of our last group GOOGL trade.
I have also taken it upon myself to buy #ibcvegas tickets for my loved ones. I care deeply about their financial decisions, and what better way to show them how much I care about them than to purchase them tickets to an event hosted by…myself. Don’t wait. There’s a discount involved for your quickness.
Also, LULU is tonight, and as mentioned earlier I am holding into the unknown.
My longs are looking great here, especially each time one of them is called into question. Each of my picks needs a martyr, so please open your mouths to criticize or question immediately. That way we can hurry and get the profits over with.
I’ll be walking the busy roads of Disney if you need me.
OA
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I can be a loved one to you.
no homo?
$LULU gonna be sicky surprise. 40-42 peeps!
Which Strikes for $GOOGL homie?
no homo. with you on the GOOGL for next week, and some Oct GMCRs…which I might add to on the ABC if it forms.
Sept 20 weeklies? What strike?
bought this morning, next week’s 600 strike avgd in @ $2.40
Want – no NEED – video of you doing this over some Magic Mountain buffet line. http://giphy.com/gifs/seth-rogen-this-is-the-end-danny-mcbride-uyushdvv31mxy
sad to watch the major rippage in PANW from the sidelines. oh well, it was part of the plan to not risk profit over unknown earnings reaction.
joined the LULU lovefest. got some $LULU $41’s (YOLO style)
Also in YOLO style, twinkies, let’s hope those ill-fitting pants we see on some folks will pay off…
if this LULU YOLO hits, then everyone that attends the investor conference should have to wear LULU stretchy pants.
Hilarious – “Each of my picks needs a martyr, so please open your mouths to criticize or question immediately. That way we can hurry and get the profits over with.”
we all know how much OA loves trendlines… is it any surprise that $DIS is doing a trendline bounce while he is on the premises?
I AM PREPARED TO BE LULUED.
just want you guys to know I love you all
You sound like my drunk uncle during Y2K, 9/11 and 2008/09. Last time I checked, he still had a pension that he keeps giving to Glenn Beck to survive the latest apocalypse.
Wait, so is frog right or what? I don’t get the correlation to crashes and Frog. Please expand.
Just kidding him around, Bruce. Frog was threatening physical violence on himself yesterday if he missed a 1000% move, and I’m just turning his screws. If this trade don’t pan out, it don’t.
I’ve got 1/4 of my normal position on LULU, nothing earth-shattering if I win or lose.
thank you for your opinion. have a nice day.
the frog turned into a prince?
I’m digging some of these intraday reversals, especially $P. It still looks like it could get to 28 by next Friday.
I thought LULU earnings were tomorrow? Google finance and e*trade both say the 11th.
9:30AM. I guess if you want to get in on the action you gotta get the options today.
Bruce, are you for some LULU yolos?
No LULU exposure for me today. 🙁
Gotta admit it looks tempting though, good contrarian bet if we weren’t all bullish on it ourselves.
you in FL??
I AM IN FLORIDABAMA
you creep me out dude.
You get creeped too easily and at the wrong people. 😀
nothing creeped us out like your last avatar
Dude, thats sooo funny. That last avatar had me sending messages to the administrators to get him banned. Far out creepy!
Per request: Let’s test this out…ahem: CRTO, is it broken? Feel like I’m getting destroyed here. Oh the agony! 🙂
Martyr , did someone call for a martyr ; never one to disappoint I’d suggest a quick exit from LULU and a reallocation of funds to a ridiculous Oct strike in LNG…. what does your boss call that , oh yeah , “a hundred dollar roll” .
Hey OA – What ye think of the shippers now? the higher low in place for BALT / etc?
They look good long.
bought some LULU yolos…cuz i felt like being american and lighting $500 on fire.
Matt, what calls did you buy?
like the olde e i used to drink back in college….40’s.
+200. I am Canadian and dont support this useless company. We are risk averse and protect our money. lol
I joined AHWOA about a month ago….First trade is LULU yolo, cheers!
Most of the Jeffonians buy in 500~1000 contracts ; hope you understand that to be a true YOLO the trade has to hurt if you lose otherwise you’re just playing . Many have told of unheard riches with bawlsy YOLOS . Don’t be afraid : step right up .
Lol. Wow. We’re screwed.
Hallelujah $LULU
http://ibankcoin.com/chessnwine/files/2013/10/pictures_of_the_day_2.jpg
All I saw was ‘chessnwine’ and ‘pictures’…and I knew if I clicked it, it was going to be good.
@Livermore, looks like a Type D trade too me.
ONVO back from the dead…… yassss
Tmr is also analyst day for $ZU if anyone wants to join in on that last minute.
Thank you, I didn’t know this.
also on the LULU yolo train – 41’s – had a hell of a time getting filled though – orders going through on both sides of my entry. Some kind of fuckery going on…
this to add to my existing Sept’s and stock position and extensive wardrobe of boss LULU men’s clothing – no yoga
I am also new to the AHWOA. Do people generally gamble or have a method/predicted outcome before going long. Looking at the LULU bandwagon it seems to be more of a gamblers trade vs any logic/thought process
hey Alec, from my perspective, there may very well be some gambling type behavior going on here. Earnings plays are always a gamble into the unknown but we also back that with a lot of sentiment play and the key is to always position size according to risk tolerance.
Caution may be thrown to the wind but always in proper proportions.
At this point it’s a gamble, but most of us bought the calls a month ago with an upside target of 45-50.
Alec, just attend after hours each night…you will learn.
Alec – read this: http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2014/06/24/the-book-of-yolo/
Dude, of course we have a method.
I don’t really like to think in terms of “labels” but if I had to I would call this high speculation that borders on gambling.
Difference between speculation from gambling is there is an observable expectancy that we believe has an edge (doesn’t mean that a similar trade repeated over and over again with a small position size necessarily does or that there is any concrete evidence other than past results to back it up). Because of so much added uncertainty, this type of play has an extremely fine line between having a large edge and having negative expectancy. These situations are when the belief varies considerably from what the concrete data says.
It would be like in poker taking the mathematically incorrect play, because you have so much conviction in your read that opponent is weak. If your read is wrong even a moderate amount of time it is still a terrible strategy. Instead of reading opponent’s hand we are reading sentiment. The reason an earnings play is a terrible strategy without a read is because you need to be right on both direction AND the magnitude of that direction is typically pricing in a very large move already… With options we not only have to be right about our read of sentiment of stock holders being low, but also sentiment of the option holders being low enough to not price in a large enough move.
I’m also only referring to those that buy a “yolo” today with the sole intention of playing earnings, as opposed to those that bought into an investment thesis based upon long term sentiment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUFW_bCR3zY
Simplified game. High card wins. You know opponent has A,K,Q,J,T. Mathematically correct play is A or K and Q is optional. But if strong read means A or K, weak read means J or T… Playing J may be correct if your reading ability is strong enough and you only play J when you have an absolute clear read opponent is weak that is right often enough to win more than you lose.
You can still use math to assess how often you need to be right about read to profit… But it is guesswork at best and there is much less margin of error in earnings plays.
Earnings plays are purely “read” based plays that are much more highly leveraged to the read than usual, just as in the analogy.
Good luck to all you guys on lulu yolo- with love from Toronto (nohome)
I want to see them announce that Nike has bought LULU out for the inversion play to move their HQ to Canada. Stock shoots to 60, we all win.
Hopefully this AH’s pop in LULU is just the foreplay to a big yoga pants fueled explosion tomorrow
Alec – as a newbie, there’s lots of good stuff you can pick up, not only from the prior AHWOA videos, but also from the blogs (and comments) here if you take time to go back and read some of them. I do this from time to time for fun, to review what setups look like on ‘OA Buys’, but also as a reminder of where we’ve been…as a means to understanding where we are going. This year has been a multitude of ups and downs and changing conditions, but the one constant is the great trade setups that prove fruitful in their entirety over time. Looking back, we hit a rough patch back in here: http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2014/04/28/dear-oa/
Having traded through that, I’m much more appreciative of where we’re at now, and the conditions we’ve had in recent weeks. What I hope to do, is to avoid the pitfalls of the past.
So, welcome to the group…and you must read this to be ‘in the loop’ if you don’t know the story already: http://ibankcoin.com/option_addict/2014/04/09/memoirs-of-a-bitch-named-angi/
5 million Google Passwords leaked, looks like another good day for Cyber security stocks tommorrow
I am in love with AHWOA and respect Jeff for all his hard work. However, from watching a couple of sessions as a newbie (not to trading -I work as an institutional trader) I have noticed that risk managed is often ignored. I know this forum doesn’t respect trend lines that much and likes to leave wiggle room for the anticipated breakout but, not knowing how to manage that “wiggle room” can burn a new trader and/or someone who lacks technical knowledge. I sometimes find it hilarious when people on this blog ask questions when a trade breaks trend lines and are helpless and harass Jeff throughout the day on questions like what do u think of this stock now, should I hold now, etc. all this is because risk management is not really discussed. This could be a weakness of Jeff but who am I to say. I am just a newbie and trying to learn from Jeff with a curious mind. Good luck to all with those lulu yolos
Pretty sure Jeff position sizes to lose the whole premium if he’s wrong in most instances. Position sizing is a form of risk management. Keep the trades to 2% or less and you’ll be ok.
It’s hard to “manage” low delta options.
The position size IS the risk management. The problem is, some people put 25% of their capital in one fucking trade and get blown to bits when it goes against them. Jeff isn’t a babysitter, if people put too much risk on, they deserve to blow up.
Why is there no link to tonite’s AHWOA?
It will be up later tonight. Technical difficulty. Please pass along to the chat members.
OA, picked up Sept GOGO. Have to say i lucked out with the news but was watchin for a few days, nice call. FEYE ripped face. Bot some GOOGL too. What do u think about AEGR here? I think it could get goin. Sick calls, already paid for service and then some on GOGO. TY
So…we’ll see you in there soon?
sure will, tomorrow.
Great avatar. It will bring me good fortune.
im long too lol. thinkin the same
First thing tomorrow I’m going to snap up some LOCO Sep 38 calls for around $0.70 or cheaper unless it’s already gone. We’re hours away from a move here. I wouldn’t mind a little false breakdown action to get in cheap.
Pretty sure OA has discussed risk management in some video series within AHWOA. Beyond that we’ve discussed several times over in the comments about position sizing so you aren’t emotional and don’t get destroyed. It should be a sticky as it’s fundamental to successful trading. That said, with it being a fundamental, who wants to discuss it on every trade idea? It’s like trying to teach a basketball team an offensive play…do you really need to go over how to pass, dribble, square up, etc each time you’re trying to teach a new play?
Killin it this week!
Largest position still GOGO (after hours!)
Then NAME, DATA (!), FEYE(!), VRNS
Long September!
Calls on ZU as well, but they’re only up 30% or so. Happy hunting all!
newsflash….just spotted at Disneyland..a 6’7″ whiteboy sporting lulu yoga pants….strutting his shit LULU
LULU…volume pocket deluxe
Oa nailed lulu. Unfuckingbelievable
I thought you’d resolved during one of your infamous streaks to cease to use the “fuck” words .
You really watched the entire Ray Donovan series ?? Deep , let us know how it ends .
Incredible !! but not only that Le Fly…what is even better is that he is teaching us his methods. Thank you OA for $LULU and the education !!!!
It is a nice report and a great score …..no position , but will be buying puts at the open .
Arent you the NUGT guy? Zero chance you have a big account.
LULU FTW!!
It’s turned cooler here in Kansas city, and last night I couldn’t help but chuckle at all the LULU being worn on the sand volleyball courts. It was a good omen. Another great pick for holding through earnings on low expectations. Well done OA.
OA, congrats on LULU…fantastic trade
In honor of lulu pants, today’s video:
http://youtu.be/VLnWf1sQkjY
lol. And then the short sellers version “shit in my (yoga) pants”
Exit suggestion for $LULU?
(Which country to vacation in…) Boom!
Rage on OA!
You will vacation in Las Vegas on 11/8 if you know what’s good for you.
Step 1: Take 50 contracts of LULU.
Step 2: Call OA and the Dr. in the Morning.
Nothing like clearing 300% in 3 minutes….
Thanks Gents.
(At this rate I’ll be… on the next flight… first class… sitting next to…….)
Nice call on LULU OA. I missed out on this, but happy for everyone and this great blog. #moneyonmymind
Hat tip on the LULU call OA.
So who’s holding and who’s trying to sell immediately at the open?
thinking. might give it an hour
matt, looking at $44.30 and above to sell out of my $42.50s.
In near the close yesterday at .28, out at $2.36 just now. Thanks OA!
sold.
Well done , sorry about burning you about this yesterday. Read it again last night and was too far over. My bad.
if we gap then crap this stock will be ANGI 2.0 LOL
You jinxed it
Lulu has more float short % than angi according to Finviz
What are you guys thinking as far as movement over the next week and a half goes? I’m thinking that the big gap up is going to mean a lot of shorts covering over the next few days contributing to upward price pressure. Sort of like what X did for the first two weeks.
OA has been preaching about letting winners win lately. Guess I am going to let this ride. I was fortunate to get in yesterday via Sept 42.5 @ .38 so I’ve got some room before I need to lock profits. Good luck all!
there was a image/spreadsheet posted showing + 1 week performance after earnings
does anyone have it?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2485815-whisper-number-impact-what-to-expect-from-lululemons-earnings
Anyone adding to Sept GOOGL calls? new of password leak etc dosent seem to affect this bad boy here
I added a few Sep 602.5s on this dip
nice. I added those 602s as well.
Hey OA – where is the LULU post?
Rock On.
I’m holding out for $50. We get a trend day going and we may get there soon. Sitting in weekly 43s from $0.23. Lulz
Great job. I went with 43 weeklies also at $.20 but I set limit order when I left for work and went out for $2 for the 900%…
Short squeeze aside it should be pretty difficult to get past the $45-50 range because it’s the opposite of X in terms of volume profile over last 5 years. Good news is though anything stretched to the downside on higher timeframe tends to have the ability to run more than most. (LNKD for example), so you never know how far the proverbial lulu pants will stretch.
I was initially thinking there is an outside chance of LULU to $60 by December expiry but it took too long to get going so I’m thinking it wasn’t enough time, but we’ll see.
Hey Hat nice job on the weeklies. I probably should’ve sold too, but I’m ok will a small win on the weeklies here if that’s what they give me. Still have Sept 40s and 42.5s so it’s all good.
You might be right about the volume profile. My thought is that they coiled this thing up for so long that the move could be massive, especially since they sucked in so many shorts. We shall see.
Missed LOCO due to illiquid options. Can’t win em all.
nice work out here QCI
Yeah buddy, props to OA for these massive ideas.
Long $JMEI stock, should find support @25 plus or minus a quarter. Swing trade so holding a while.
Score!
Didn’t buy options but I bought shares for LULU. Great call OA.
Also happy to see that $BAC finally decided to crack $16.40. I’m still sitting on a pile of Sept 16s from several weeks ago.
Oh wow, had a limit order in for $LULU stock I went long weeks ago adn it triggered this morning. Went to check the chart… score!
Wahoo!!! Didn’t buy LULU options ( need to learn more ) bet the farm with shares. I made almost $10,000 overnight!!! OA, you da man!!!
I sold half my LULU 40s at $5, holding the other half until I see a lower low intraday.
Followed on $GOOGL and picked up Oct $CAMP calls. Stock is on the edge of low vol area on 5 year weekly chart.
Thanks again for $LULU 300% !!!!
Wonderful on LULU call.. I missed X, TWTR .. but i got this one .. I am forever after hours member.
Next up… $CRTO!