Aversion

Having trouble finding words here today, especially with YGE trading down 15%. Having rode this in December from $4.30 to nearly $8, then back to breakeven as of yesterday, I open up to stare down a nice sized loss, for the first time since purchasing this stock. I refuse to ride a loss like this much lower, especially since I had always figured I would exit just under $4 if it traded there. At the least, I might reduce the size of this position if I attempt to ride it out.

You know, every few years you encounter a behavior or market personality you feel you’ve never seen before. After having gone through 2011, I thought I’d seen it all. As I’m driving home from the hospital the other night, I hear the evening headlines over the radio, followed by the words…”and on Wall Street the Dow finished down 16 points, just off its all time highs” and I laughed out loud.

If you are deploying the same set of strategies used last year, you are facing a steep list of disadvantages here. I have only a fraction of the number of positions I manage on average and have been doing a lot less these days, waiting for a better table to sit down and play at. At this rate, I think it takes at least 2 weeks for option premiums to settle, as we get through earnings and assuming we don’t see the market fall apart in that same time frame.

In the end, I still think we’re in the aversion phase of sentiment. Even if there were an easy trade here, how many of you would actually take it?