This morning I booked CZR and rolled out CRM calls.
After yesterday’s longs in LNKD and Z, I added TWTR to my book. #YOLO.
Most of yesterday’s unrealized losses have been recovered, with the exception of the carnage in the 3D stocks. CAMT, CIMT and ONVO look fine, but I let two gains in XONE and SSYS turn to losses. Tough pill to swallow.
Also, I am thinking about taking a good sized Gold short here using March puts. Looking beyond the state of the currency crisis and my own personal ignorance on the matter, I want to be the upper hand on the 2014 Gold C-Rush.” The location is right, the options are cheap enough for the move, and I think the timing is ok.
OA
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What did you think of the reversal in $ANGI today. I am disappointed that I missed buying the dip. Also, took your advice from AHWOA last night and bought $KWK.
AP u in the TA room? if so whats ur handle?
You get the 60 strike on TWTR?
Yes 60’s
sure… why not. TWTR yolo for me as well
liking that TWTR, may join in
Who was the idiot that said we’re still in a secular bull market for gold? Exact opposite is true, zombies ate these goldbugs brains…”currency crisis”-LOL.
Zombies eh.
happy i saw this. i entered TWTR yesterday afternoon.
$ANGI is 8.5% of lows of today. well done
GLD double bottom is going to trap a lot of longs. Look like a bull trap if I’ve ever seen one.
What strike for GLD?
115?
Nice action, and good that most of us did not panic yesterday.
It’ll be interesting to follow your thoughts on GLD, OA. Last year was a great year for GLD bears.
It was looking to me, though, that GLD is following the sentiment chart to a tee. Hope you talk about it tonight…
Take that out to a 5 year chart. You’ll see what I’m thinking.
Thanks, will do.
yup. definitely a downtrend if ive ever seen one.
You throwing on position today?
buyout activity heating up in the miners tho
I will leave the miners to you. They won’t crash like Gold will.
Yes, GS is also predicting gold crash this year.
That TWTR does look real good here
if it can just finish the day inside the consolidation. tomorrow could be a ripper.
Finally closed out WDAY Jans after missing a fill yesterday before the decline…what a relief. Also parted ways with BIIB for the roller coaster ride I put myself through. And I said goodbye to HII…a very beloved to me…such sweet sorrow. Got a few more to close out, and I should have some dry powder for the next run, whatever that may be!
Good job yoshii, I’ve got some powder as well.
Sounds like everyone wants to short gold – I seem to hear it everywhere but isn’t there a large physical demand for it? I thought a good strategy would be to short gold and long miners. As a note – for some reason I don’t think DRYS is broken yet… holding on until I see some of the other shippers break down… could be a mistake.
sold my calls today almost worthless
next week likely will rocket
We discussed a +GDX -GLD pairs trade in AHWOA
holy shit TSLA! anybody here brave enough to have bought some yesterday?
I was fully invested yesterday with my risk capital. Finally clearing some winners today for some better setups than what my current positions look like. I sold my Jan TSLAs for small profit…not brave enough to hold on for the week after today’s move, and figure I can roll into Feb or some other week if I’m so inclined.
I think this is the best FSLR has looked in a while. Implied vol relatively low too.
Those Feb 55’s look real tempting
I jumped in at 1.65
go QIHU. I think this sucker still tests 96 high. what you all think?
My 7 Feb (weekly) 90’s say yes
once it gets through yesterday’s highs, it can look at targeting last week’s $89 – with Jan calls, I’m doubting that time allows $96, but a lot can happen in 3 days.
thats fine by me. i’d like follow thru tomorrow to let my jan go.
What are people’s thoughts on the setup in ZNGA now?
From this point forward I shall be known t as the fool who sold TSLA Jan 18 $160 calls the day BEFORE TSLA beasted… at the time of post they are currently up 4000%. Please send all condolescences to the North Florida Center for Depression. I will be away for a few days.
I know the feeling i sold AAPL calls minutes before ICAHN tweeted one day
ugh thats hard to deal with. sorry CW
Hang in there CW. I know the feeling all too well.
I am buying options in ALL liquor distillers.
Um, what is it you drink again ?
(Sorry bout the trade – we’ve all done it, but this was a particularly nasty one to have to look back on).
That is tough CW, try to not let it F with you too bad and just consider how this experience can fine tune your trading methods. Sounds like your portfolio will still live to fight on.
Stuff like that still sucks though, idk.
TSLA – My ride ends here at + 700%
well done, fared much better than me.
I was gonna sell it but danny1980 talked me out of it.
Thank you sir danny1980
I was looking at it today thinking it needed more time to stay sideways and round out a bottom and become actionable and I looked away from it and then woosh!
Danny saved me as well. Sold half and hoping for more good news out of the wise mouth of Elon Musk
If he didn’t slap you I was gonna. You owe him big time.
Congrats on the win !!!
awesome sandwich
NFLX wound up tight as a drum here. i say it goes up.
careful, earnings on NFLX are on 1/22
my hunch, aapl, nflx, etc ride up into earnings…we shall see.
looks good for a #YOLO – avoids earnings as boiler pointed out
What year was it when individual stocks used to give real dramatic false moves before it dramatically went the opposite direction which dwarfed the previous move?
Lots of fakeouts, false moves and failed breakouts, bear/bull traps,etc. Similar to the social media call Jeff made in late 2013 only usually these moves would instead take out a bunch of stops after or just before the breakout and then launch higher and everyone would chase, often in the same day or within only a day or two.
I can’t quite put my finger on when but there have probably been a dozen moves in 2014 already where you have a big shakeout of some sort. TSLA today is kind of that same mold, with a slight bleed lower for a few days then what looks to be just another quiet down day before buyers aggressively come in.
OR
LNKD rejecting $200 after sort of a breakdown (like the 3rd time with that stock alone over the 3.5 months). ANGI’s move today too to a lesser extent.
etc
Well DANG! Sold half my Jan 10’s… These were worth 0$ last week. A couple days is a lifetime in options.
TSLA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Seriously, I think it was worth like .10 this morning and now worth 4.30!
CTRP upgraded by JPM if anyone holding
let me know when a buyout is announced on this one. LOL
Yes, I’m still in. Still think this will hit new high long term.
Just bought JASO Feb 10s for .40
XONE done
VJET absolutely destroyed on the news too
might be a gift for discount buying. deferred approvals into 2014 with no lost business, so its not lost revenue, but likely defferred into 2014 once approvals come through. headlines will make this a big negative, but realistically, no big deal. Again, markets are irrational, so any excuse to take profits and any panice on headline news will probably drive it down…but if you read below the headlines this isn’t a big deal.
probably best left alone for awhile…they were green pastures while it lasted.
wow, toast is right.
Um, going to have to disagree. Those numbers are a GARGANTUAN miss.
if I were to give you $1,000,000 six months from now vs. giving it to you 1 month from now…would you throw a fit? probably not…that’s all that I mean by not a big deal. avg Joe will make it a big deal in the short term, which is maybe all we care about for the time being. But in the grand scheme of things and in particular for the other 3d players, I don’t view it as a big deal. this happens everywhere at fortune 500 companies, but it sticks out more given xone’s size or lack thereof.
Gold bug anthem+music video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2Wx230gYJw
Hi thewolf, can you post JPM’s rating for CTRP, since I can’t find any ? Thanks !
http://www.analystratings.net/stocks/NASDAQ/CTRP/?RegistrationCode=SocialMedia-direct
CHTP was on the radar, just didn’t have the stomach to do a yolo on it given the hits I’ve taken lately. would have been a slightly better than 50-50 gamble. Hope that eases your mind a little Capeless Wonder. there will be other opportunities for us.
i was thinking about my string of bad luck recently with my winners:
FSLR up 250% crushed with a downgrade
Cree up 200% crushed with a downgrade
VJET and XONE crushed with surprise announcements.
Winning trades with bad timing.
I’ll see all your downgrades and surprise announcements and raise you CELG, NFLX, SSYS, DDD. I tried letting them run before being torpedoed, or they got torpedoed shortly after entry. CELG being the only one that recovered fully. On the flip side I let others run like HII, WDAY, CF, BIIB, YOKU, SFUN…and those worked for me. i’ve got other positions open, too…but as it stands today, I’m basically starting the year over. Call it mismanagement or bad luck, that’s where I’m at. I’m trying to balance scaling out winners vs. just letting them run…and am not sure what the best thing to do is. I think I watched a video where OA mentioned not really liking scaling out…but I could be wrong, so don’t quote me.
Yes. OA reiterated that recently – why cut your potential profit in half by scaling out of a position. I have done that on occasion like YY and lost out on a huge run. But I bailed on VJET early today when I heard the news on one of the other 3D companies because sometimes there is a ripple effect. I was lucky. So it cuts both ways. I believe that you can maximize your profits by letting winners run. Announcements and downgrades are unpredictable so it comes with the territory.
I got shit on recently myself:
MTDR: passed on a + 400% last week (I watched it go up on Thursday and it came all the way back down that same day). Sold yesterday for even.
SODA: bought last week’s weeklies two weeks ago… They went worthless then came back from the dead last Wednesday, bought more Thursday and they went back to zero just in time for expiration day. F- ing roller coaster
Similar deal with VJET and XONE.
You can’t win them all
Oh yeah, if I would’ve let P run… It would’ve been my largest win ever. Danny remembers that one
Yea remember P and selling it at $30! Ugh… Lol my biggest win so far has been TWTR at 1500%! Doubt I ever see that again
I was starting to shed a tear for ya a minute ago….and now nada.
I have 4 ANGI Feb 15 and up 140 bux 🙂 wanna buy 4 more.
Thinking about jumping into a MCP yolo- Jan 5.50’s in the A.M.
Like those a lot.
Thanks for the idea Juice, ‘m in a .10 hoping for the best
in at .10 that is
In at .08
MCP looking like a great short squeeze YOLO, in at $0.11, wish I got in at .08.
In as well! .09
In at .09
good call on that one
Great call!! followed you in on this.. in @.09
OA – very informative on gold today. Figured out the hd for the video… Much better. Should have signed up last year and I would not have been punched in the face by the miners…. Your gold discussion has me rethinking everything now…
think about how it ties into market direction.
@Tax – how did you get HD? The Vimeo feed is super blurry
x2 to this.. my Vimeo feed leaves a lot to be desired. Can’t wait to go back and watch yesterdays video..
There is an HD button that you click! It may depend on the browser but I have had it work on Mac and Windows.
its that easy? LOL, thanks Alpha, my shits so blurry I never noticed a button..
indeud!
Yep the HD button. Also if you run on a MAC or IPAD it goes into HD automatically.
Doing research into what you said about depressed volume levels and how it is indicative of something happening in the near term. This is so true; must of went through a hundred old charts and almost every breakout had depressed volume and the. Boom goes the dynamite; man I enjoy getting my learn on with you peeps
Is a VJET yolo a good idea?
Too late… got the 42.50’s at .70
damn, apparently should have held $TSLA one more day!
don’t beat yourself up over this one. if your position had been REGN, you’d have been glad you sold yesterday…never know how it will react given a big move prior day. best to take the gift and move on.
Did OA or anyone ever update opinion on XIN position or thoughts?
holy $TWTR… we going for $64 on the YOLO?
Looking at the volume…63 me thinks.
I’d watch it at 63 NOT sell it at 63 – this sucker could be at 65 on Friday.
Thanks lan, will do.
ARIA right at actionable point on 20min chart. I’m in FEB 7s since last Thursday. Anyone care to join?
I got into those yesterday…
@Danny – CRM YOLO’s up 422%. They are saving my week here !!!
What’s your target on CRM for this week? I’m debating on unloading my January’s.
Lan was looking for 60+, iirc – I’m looking for 59 myself
Looking for 60 with an exit of 2.78 and returns of 1108.70%.
Needless to say, I’m watching this ticker like a hawk. Goes out of range, or below 58 – color me gone. However this thing has momentum at the moment and I’ve got another 50% of potential profit to realize.
Tails are still pointing up on 20 minute trades.
I’m glued to it also…lol
I’m sticking with you on this one. @Lan if it finishes above $59 would you hold till tomorrow?
lan are you still holding for 60 ?
See post above this one.
Saving my behind! after the 3D disaster. I am so mad at myself for allowing VJET to become over 5% of my portfolio. I am still hunting for $60 today or tomorrow. Hope it will get there for us
Sold CRM… raising Bio funds
thank you Lanforce
Unless you need the cash – HOLD OUT HERE. I predict a close over 59 today.
Very tempting to take that 445% I’m sitting on…lol
I believe Jeff has the right play, these are a no brainer roll out IMO, clear skies above.
Don’t you dare leave me before 59
Insert clever ANGI pun here.
Not sure if I want to roll her over or let her ride for a little longer
Flawless.
i’m buying a 3d printer so I can print some higher prices. I’d almost say GMCR looks interesting for another goround, but it probably needs to get through the week first.
Held CRM, ANGI, and RKUS from before the drop. Glad I didn’t sell them like a piker during the bad days… 8) Watching CRM as best I can at work. Piggy wants another dollar. Loving ANGI 15 going ITM… RKUS will probably expire worthless.
Congrats for holding – nice trade discipline.
Long WRES stock.
Look at volume profile of a 10year chart or WRES.
Bought a slug of SODA stock. This company will inevitably be acquired.
Here’s an out of the box thought on LNKD.
This morning, you could enter a 215/217.50/220 long fly for a .03 CREDIT.
Exit @ 218 would be $100 and exit at 220 would be 250. At 220 that would be a 660% gain on Friday.
There is upside risk over 220, but still the risk/return is incredible.
ahh… that time of the month when all your trades turn into yolo’s.
watching $ANGI and $TWTR intently
LOL – yes I HATE expiration week.
CRM and TWTR have single handedly pulled me back to Monday’s open PLUS 10%. With LNKD there is the potential to close the week up 20 percent.
Moral of the story:
1. Position sizing – spread risk evenly
2. Let winners run
3. One or two big winners make up for 5 or 7 losers
working on step 3 right now
Were you in SSYS and CREE – I took a whomping on those – just plain bad luck. As someone said, right trade, bad timing.
nope… luckily i did not. right now the worthless options are $FSLR, $CLF, and some $F from a few months ago.
Haha I am in SSYS, CREE, FSLR, and CLF, and VJET. Luckily I was in TSLA too so up for the week!
CRM now officially a two bagger.
Crap – make that TWTR. CRM was a two bagger a few days ago.
you dumped TWTR?
Nope – just sayin it’s at 200 percent. I’m looking for 63 by Friday.
if twtr closed today right around $61 i would be a happy man.
+1
Thanks for the PXD yolo recommendation yesterday. Believe it was Danny/lan that spotted the idea
Watch PXD carefully – she can run but she can also fall on her ass QUICKLY.
ANGI – over 15 ! Blue sky overhead. Shoot if this bitch ends up putting me over 30 percent for the week I’m buying her a nice steak dinner and making Danny cut her meat and feed it to her…
i’m trying to adjust my expectations for ANGI given we only have 2.5 days left. want a realistic but attainable goal.
Over 15.50 and I guarantee a full size erection in both your portfolio and your pants.
yes… especially since i got in at 0.25
0.23 here (a ton of em)
Jinx.
NFLX getting flushed.
For those still in CRM – WATCH the chart today and notice how many pikers are going to get flushed on what is a MILD pullback.
I’ve said it before and will say it again – learn to LOVE pullbacks !!!
broad fades this morning, but I wouldn’t doubt many are not wanting to be caught off guard by fed. should be interesting to see the day progress.
missed this one. what target for the pullback are you using?
Boom goes MCP
I’ve been buying leaps like crazy in biotech… unfortunately I need the cash
Raised some cash today (not related to Fly post) but sold out of YELP, USG, C, BAC – problem sold them all to early but needed some capital. One day I will get enough balls to try out options.. just need more time to learn.
i’ve found that watching my YOLO’s on a 30 minute chart rather than a 5 minute chart is a lot easier on my blood pressure.
+1
+2
MCP moving !
where are the expectations on mlnx to exit ?
my target is 42.5 , bought @ 38.5
Wow, just being in this thread is worth a ton of money. Great call on MCP juice.
$ANGI is a b@#$h
Just a reminder to all that in the market today, everything is gonna be UP a little. OA trades tend to do better the next day on pullback – when many stocks are down and ours are doing STELLAR against the market.
Resist the urge to sell an “up” unless it has met your trade plan goals. The difference between “up” and “monster” can be as much as 50 percent.
very sound advice! thanks for the reminder
nicely done on the MCP calls. great trade
To give credit where it’s due, OA mentioned MCP in AH last night.
You holding until Friday? Looks like the volume party hasn’t really started yet.
Looks like there’s definitely more room to run, planning on holding till Friday.
+1
For those in the GOGO “short” position – you’re gonna LOVE the chart right now.
BLAM
(OA vindication coming)…
Anyone still in VMW ?
If you are, congrats man – you’ve got the MOJO !
i exited yesterday. lol
Hey Jacked Rabbit, what are your thoughts on the ARIA trade? I Have Feb 7s at .75 Mental stop on a close below the 1/9 low of 6.32 Target 8.50ish by end of Jan
boiler, I’m set on this one coiling soon. By the time it gets to $6.32, I don’t know how much premium would be left to salvage. I thought I was set on ARIA, but I bought the blasted Jan 31 $7.50 calls, which have no volume whatsoever at this time.
I have a Feb $7 limit order of .65 in place right now.
CRM through 59
Just sold some of my CRM for over 500% – thank you Lan!
Congrats – nice trade !!!
Remind me – did you grab my PXD YOLO @ 170 ? Playing out nicely…
Nope – waiting on the oils still
Watching GSVC from last weeks OA watchlist – entry trigger at 13.25
No offense, I’m hoping for GRPN under $11 today. That looks like it still might have another day or two of work to do.
And if you know any chasers out there, I would like some more boost of NQ!
pretty sure that was a rejection in $ANGI, can’t believe its red for the day now. looking to escape from them on any strength
LNKD too
Look at the weekly candles. Every attempt to sell the pop has failed to produce new lows. Every one.
Granted, every pop was also lower than the last one but let’s be realistic guys, ANGI is still getting over the fact that she was dumped and it may take a bit longer than many had hoped. I only have a half a position in Febs and got C-blocked on my attempt to go for the Jan $.20 fill
good point.
shoulda buoght more aapl yesterday. dang. only blemish today is nflx alas….
AMRN is up 20% and my Feb calls are only 60% WTF?!
Ungodly high IV
Are you in 3’s? I have Jan’s that are at a double right now.
yea Feb 3’s. oh forgot about the IV on these.
took 150% gains on AAPL from monday, too afraid of the afternoon rug pull. enough profits to make up for monday. i will take it. QIHU hit 89 booked it.
@Danny
@Twinkies
@Sandwich
@Autumnal
@Hesitation
On the medical theme we talked about last Friday – great entry here for ARIA which made a lot of our lists. Perfect and easy to manage.
52 week high of 23, trading around 6.50
Yeah I’ve been eyeballing the Feb 8’s… Im also looking to get the Jan (2015) 10’s
REALLY would like to see a perk on this one before taking action. This REALLY screams “needs to perk” to me.
The beauty of entry here is you will have IMMEDIATE feedback if it is broken. But I agree – it might be good to see a trigger event first.
Boiler and In. Finally got my ARIA Feb 7s filled .65
congrats Jacked, glad you got in! now let’s get it moving the right direction
thank you for the notice lan. I threw some cash into the Feb 8’s…
anyone doing KNDI?
I like the setup. What strike are you thinking?
CNDO doing a nice job building a higher low today
@Lan yea I’m watching it here. The volume pocket is gigantic in this one.
There really is NOTHING above 59 – we’re in uncharted waters here.
I really do not understand this ANGI play; just weird action! Gigantic inverse stem
@Danny
Volume has really picked up this past hour – I think we’re getting noticed.
CRM that is….
Volatility or something must have changed, cuz the option jumped 12 on a 5 point move.
I’m loving this CRM chart Danny – fun to watch and fun to see it drop shares on the dips.
Taking off 60% of CRM at 791.59%
closed 1/3 position 800% to offset vjet clf and my mismanaged czr
I screwed up the CZR exit also – still made money, but not as much as most folks. Caught the uptick after yesterday’s drop.
So don’t feel bad – and I see CZR ready for re-entry here in the next 3-5 days.
Nicely done boys!
Thx however all the credit goes to lan. now if Angi will just pop