If you haven’t read this, do so now:
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2014/01/05/sometimes-the-less-you-know-the-more-you-make/
An excerpt:
Last year was orderly, with large capped stocks leading the way. The buy and hold strategy held true and old men made a bundle of coin in their stupid toilet paper stocks. I believe 2014 is going to imbue a different quality in the investing public, something far more debauched than 2013. If last week was a preview of things to come, expect to see speculation run rampant in small cap, low brow, stocks, whilst the mainstream of Wall Street lags behind and gets flogged with wet towels upon correction.
For people who pride themselves on stock picking prowess, this is a welcomed development. I don’t like it when my dentist makes bundles of coin in his stupid 401k plan, managed by mutual fund hacks. I’d much rather see him destroyed, unable to deal with the market, cashed out and looking for real estate. This doesn’t make me an evil man, of course, only one that is interested in seeing the complete destruction of my dentist’s retirement account. – Fly
In my 2013 Outlook in January last year, I made the comment that 2013 would be the year of the stock. This year, one of my predictions is of the same viewpoint that Dr. Fly suggests, and that is that 2014 will be the year of the stock picker.
Fewer stocks will participate in the market this year, which means that the stocks that actually move, will move in short frantic bursts. If you look at each trading day of the year thus far, we’ve been positioned into stocks making frantic upside moves (YY, YOKU, VMW, CREE, WDAY, SSYS, SCTY, ANGI). The moves will be more explosive than they were last year. I also think what you’ve seen here will be the norm for the year. In other words, if your expertise is picking stocks and timing explosive movements in stocks, then you sir are in for a real treat.
Don’t trade the market. Trade stocks.
OA
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i think it’s this part of the year instead , cos there are lots of stocks rushing the rally at this moment . not sure it’s going to hold this behavior all 2014
Fewer stocks, bigger moves.
Because of the lack of stocks participating, everyone will pile into the stock of the day, breaking out.
It’s fact.
I just joined, but I have a quick question. Do you hold options positions over earnings? I usually try not to be in options during earnings. So I took MU for a quick day trade today after the initial burst for a quick 15% and dumped before the IV got sucked out in the last hour. I’m kicking myself for not holding, but earnings burn me more than not.
Personally, if I were confident in direction, I would just put on size that I’m willing to lose all of.
almost gave me a boner
Sure glad I’m in with one helluva f’n fantastic stock picker.
+1
Insane day in the market, all of my AHWOA picks went “Cocaine Gorilla” to the upside today. Wouldn’t have even looked at these underlyings if it wasn’t for OA.. This shit is real
@Lanforce yes TRLA is definitely in a fast moving zone. Appears to be the same as CREE; looks to go to $40-$42 easy. Cree wouldn’t surprise me if it hit $70
Matter of fact TRLA hits $40 tomorrow barring GOLDMAN coming out of nowhere with a Dusty Rhodes style “peoples elbow” PT cut
Someone say something to make me feel better about not taking the MU trade! Looked at that thing for 10 minutes and didn’t pull the damn trigger
Trading through an earnings announcement is a 30-70 proposition, IMHO. Yes, this one worked out, but as a long term strategy, it’s really almost as bad as chasing. I got my butt kicked from here to breakfast the last 3 times I tried it.
We forget that the other side of monster profits is risk managemet. Had you done this one – you’d be likely to do the next one with less than happy results.
As I mentioned in chat, 24 of 27 stocks on my watchlist were green today. There are plenty of monster trades just waiting to happen. Don’t sweat the ones you miss.
It’s like Vegas. I put on chip on a weekly 21 call yesterday. If it works out, the lady gets a nice dinner out this weekend. If not, I’m not sweating bullets.
Total lotto ticket.
Danny – I took the trade, found out it was earnings and sold for a .10 profit (20%) – the alternative was to possibly (more than likely) lose my entire premium if they reported poorly. I am mad but, just like buses, there will be another one right behind this one.
Half the battle is knowing what will move, the other half is planning and execution.
GM Danny, if I remember it right, MU beat last Q. but the stock had run up into earnings and pulled back with the beat for a week or two. Looked good but wasn’t. Market doing her job.
APOL results came and up in AH trading.
No position yet .
danny. YY continues to eat at me from letting it go after initial pop just to see it go another 16%….missed the nice opp to enter Monday.
since I hold MU weeklies I’ll be exiting morning. I see QIHU pattern shaping up like YY did. Anyone agree? I haven’t viewed the video yet.
Also opinions on CRM?
QIHU, CLF, CRM, and CREE are all basically explosions waiting to happen.
And as to YY with these record high breakouts, it just as easily could have dropped back down in the 50’s and stayed there. If you followed your own trade plan and executed to it, then be happy and congratulations. MANY people traded day 2 of the initial pop – feel bad for them.
Hattery and I have been toying with the idea of replacing the workd “target” with SPOW (starting point of a win) – a useful reminder that there may be room after the initial pop for more gain.
Don’t beat yourself up too bad – speaking personally, the quality of my weekend had I not traded at target last week would have been 90% worse wondering what it was gonna do on Monday.
Also – just a reminder. Even OA does NOT try and top tick an exit.
i like the rewording, and i also am finding myself using the volume profile more now since OA emphasizes this. It is absolutely brilliant concept. Tonight’s video was a gem. Was very confidence inspiring to maximize your probabilities of profit and taking emotional driven profit by spreading multiple trades by spreading the capital into multiple positions. 4 out of 5 will make money so I’m glad I heard this. This is the approach I take. Small account, willing to max it out with positions.
YOLO is brilliant concept and fun!
What about DECK for friday?
lanforce you might need to add TRLA ,ANGI &CZR too for explosions
Yes my list was certainly NOT all-inclusive. I was just pointing out very similar trades, though on different scales.
i didn’t go all the way with QIHU. The location of the triangle had me worried about a possible final trip lower before breaking out.
I was happy with my 270% YOKU sell today and oddly Ididn’t freak about holding WDAY even after I saw it drop from $89.30 down to $88. Currently sitting at 372% on that one and hoping it’ll be a 600% at my exit. We will see by next week. Trying to get better on my exits and holding til target but FSLR damaged my psyche
i know you’ve been killing it and have been following along. great to witness. consistently batting over 300 from my perspective!
I still believe in this trade and believe it could actually exceed our initial target. Remembrer, gotta learn to love pullback – they are the calm that precedes the next big move as people take profits.
Jeff, how about ANF. check out the daily volume pocket. There is zero volume between 40-43.5
That looks like a perfect setup – bottom then a higher low and beginning to break out
I would not trade ANF today. 99% sure it will go down tomorrow.
Some nice charts with huge volume pockets (biotech)
CNDO CPRX ACHN ZIOP
QIHU…YUP…a picker of stocks..big time
According to industry insiders, Chinese e-commerce conglomerate Alibaba Group is in negotiations with internet services and security software provider Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) regarding an investment in Qihoo by Alibaba, similar to Alibaba’s previous investment in Chinese internet company Sina’s (Nasdaq: SINA) Weibo microblogging platform. The negotiations have reportedly been underway for a significant period of time.
Neither Alibaba nor Qihoo has confirmed the rumor.
Everyone who ridiculed me for taking the Qihu trade can now suck it! @Lanforce boom baby!
its all good…lets all be team $$$
PWRD!!!
First buy this morning will be BITA. Coiled and ready for a breakout
rad call
word
Qihu +4.5% premarket! I’m ridin the Jan 24 80’s , boom baby!
Sweet! “ABMM” Always Be Makin Money
Looking at SBUX for a YOLO here also IV is cheap and only needs a $1 move for a triple
Looks up pre-market. Good luck. Going after $78s or $79s on the Jan10s?
Jan 10’s $78’s looks like a good risk reward.
Are you in them right now Danny? Or stalking them at the open?
Stalking
Hey guys, I am somewhat new to options trading, but definitely not new to this fine site and the analysis herein this smoky backroom.
When you talk about a YOLO put on GOGO or going in hard on calls relating to YY, ANGI, etc. what percentage of your available funds are you talking about roughly?
For example, what is the average “bet” size? Just trying to get some perspective.
A “normal” (eg long) trade can/should be about 2 percent of your holdings. A “YOLO” is inherently a high risk high reward trade and as such, recomended to be no more than one percent.
And if you can’t do “normal” limit your number of positions.
So last night I put in a sell order for QIHU calls at a 300% gain. As I’m going to raise the ceiling on the sell order (stock looks like it’s at least going to 90 today), it gets filled.
#FirstWorldProblems #StudentofOAproblems
same thing happened to me in YELP this morning
There goes BORN. Waiting for DANG now.
Oh and FSLR, ANGI, CLF, and MS………
QIHU…how good is Jeff? just check your portfolio…score
Jumped in a YOLO CMG 535 trade @ 1.70
thats a decent idea
Just took SBUX yolos Jan 10’s $78
nice timing danny
Got me some VJET Jan 47.50… chased but missed the BITA jump
Got into CLF and CRM this morning.
We be having a clubhouse for these stocks.
I was all ready for CLF to drop this morning, I should have put my limit order in last night becuase I would have gotten in at .44 instead of .48.
Anyone dumping VMW @ 95?
I’m taking some profits, will hold the rest to 97.
You’re trading at stretch target – congrats guys !!!
mentioning, but with caution cause I’ve lost some with BIIB, but it is once again bouncing up strong…off an area I’d call support.
PWRD – whenever my gut says buy, I shall buy.
CLF? Back from the dead?
took a chance with ARIA Feb 7s here. someone mentioned yesterday on AHWOA thank you… hopefully
I like this one…I’m gonna wait and what the day brings before I hop in
was that you that mentioned it?
No, it’s been on my weekly watchlist for about two weeks now. I think someone brought it up last week too and OA said he liked it but wanted to see it lower.
cmg f550s – I’ll give it a run
love the location here.
MS warming up. Great chart.
My soda POP!
in CMG 535 at 1.35.. placed order early today and didnt think it would fill
@ Danny
@ Cheese_Trader
@ Sandwich
(In my best impression of Chandler from Friends).
Could we have BEEN any better on our CRM entry ?
Not possible… haha
I hope Jeff is proud of the fishermen he’s created
Once you know what you’re looking for – they sort of jump out and smack you in the face. And as Jeff says – with a 12 to 1 risk/reward I will trade those all day long…
How long you been in this blog? – if you don’t mind me asking
I think Lanforce has been here since the first week of the service, like me.
I only ask because he and a few others all seem to know what to buy and when. I’ve been watching this site since September and it’s an amazing site for ideas… I hope to contribute once I become a skilled fisherman
I started on my birthday 09-28-2013
well called, sir
Lan I jumped in too…thanks for the analysis
Anytime – money doubled overnight with 8 days to run – could be a VERY nice trade.
mine are a triple now, .23 to .67
+1
anyone still holding the GOGO puts? contemplating selling now for 50% loss
I am in the Feb’s and am holding. Don’t be so quick to book this loss if you’re still in it.
I love the idea. I am thinking Jan puts might not have the time required to play out as I would like. Sell now and rebuy Feb when GOGO hits $27
This is what I’m thinking on GOGO puts, though I’m not in them yet.
It could get as low as $25.20 today.
Could.
If it closes above that today, my assumption is that it goes to $27 by later in the week. That’s when I might play the $25 puts, but I haven’t looked yet.
If it closes below that $25, it could go lower immediately.
Right now, with 30-35 other stocks, I’m just watching GOGO. Good luck.
It will either go up to 27 then down, or simply down with a target (mine) of 17.
Ian, looks like CZR is coiling for another run. Enough time to still play out in the Jan calls? Still holding from .40.
I’m in at .40 also – I’m not sure there is time enough to hit the goal of 25, but I’m pretty sure we will close out in the 24 range somewhere.
PETA petition against OA for mass slaughtering bears. Luckily I am not one of the victims
@Lanforce nice one! Looking good
How’s your SBUX YOLO Danny?
Hopped in ZIOP (Jan) and SONS (Apr)
Up 100% on my SBUX Yolo in 1 hour
last chance ride for TSLA, before a chase is on?…maybe.
successfully avg down on CLF week 4’s, and got some SCTY 65 yolo’s as a booster for the jan 55’s i still have.
sold out my last YELP Jan 62.5 for $16.5 from $5 entry on Dec 13. I need to raise some capital. Continue to ride for those that can…best wishes.
The internet space has been amazing. I think these may be next. BCOR,HSTM,BITA,PRSS,MBIS
Riding high and clean this morning til I looked in to see how my P Jan 29 calls were doing. I bought these at .60 on 12/30/13, and set a stop of 50 cents. It hit on 1/3/14, and sold for a loss.
Where are they trading today?
$5.00
Congrats to those who stayed in. I was certainly weak on that one. And yet another reason that position size gives you the flexibility that an all or nothing approach is great. I was wearing my stock trading hat in a option trade.
this is why stop losses are awful for options
Bingo. Now there is no way I would have held for this entire run, but you are exactly right.
If I were still in it I’d have +990%… But there’s no way i could have slept last night or Monday night. Maybe I’ll take up yoga or do some breathing exercises to let those puppies ride
$AAPL doing a stealthy 4 day coil up here. I’d like it around 539-540 range.
You ARE aware that we have a YOLO trade on for AAPL, right ?
i guess i did not realize that. must have missed it. good luck to you.
which weeklies did you pick up 550’s?
also, went back a few blog posts, didn’t see any mentions of $AAPL, maybe it was a TA trade.
547.5s
jan ONVO 12s for yolo, 20c
someone sell me their damn gogo 27s NOW
shit was about to cancel and got filled
notsureifwant
lanforce nice call on CRM yesterday.
Echo that.
@ Autumnal
I’m back online – whenever you’re ready. For some reason it’s not letting me initiate a chat – working on it.
TSLA – boom !!!
Great YOKU entry
…20 minutes ago.
CRAP
Yes LAN, I took down crm at the open, nice one! Still holding GOGO puts, YOLO at this point
EGLE might go here
someone hit the BUY button on VJET, about time. LOL…let’s fly.
How have you guys dealt with FSLR?
Cut and run or riding it out?
I’m riding the options probably into next week, and take what I can, see what Mon/Tue brings, and whether its worth holding any into Wed.
I cut my Jan 60’s on Monday’s drop.
Past the point of no return – sticking it out – hoping for the best. Premium isn’t salvagable here, at least for me.
i’m still in em. It was hard to cut and run given the swoosh down on Jan 6th. Just looking for a place to salvage some premium. FSLR not participating in the recent solar run up.
FB – double top and volume pocket beneath
A few puts here for me.
Optionable stocks over $100 picks:ATHN,MSTR,FLT
I think CF is in a good spot, I’m looking for new highs coming up ahead, but I’m biased as I got into this before Christmas. Maybe a dip buy around 232.
sold 1/3 of my $PHOT position at $.298 from $.058 to lock in my cost and take some profits.
The rest I’m leaving to ‘grow’ for more ‘green’ – target…$4.20 ???
Would I be a fool to add more to ANGI? – If you’re out there OA I could use some wise words
Jan 15 calls*
speaking as someone who missed the original pop and has been looking for an entry, I’m stalking for a bit lower
Thank you sir
Get the Feb’s not the Jan’s
looking like aversion on the shorter time frame…15 min charts – as OA mentioned it was on the longer time frame last night.
thoughts on CRBL?
that shouldve been CBRL. have an order in for Jan 115
CREE
I think GOGO will turn out to be correct. Bot Jan 22.5s at $0.40. I like when the pattern suggests there “should” be a continuation of, in this case, a downtrend, and something artificial props it up (Jim Cramer). Usually just delaying the inevitable.
This is a great place to pick up the Jan 15 strike ANGI calls. Setting into another higher low. Stop placed if stock takes out 13.35
CMG yolo looking attractive again on this pullback.
CTRX baby
YOKU – feels like I’ve overstayed
chart looks similar to YY pullback day. sell today and miss the spike tomorrow. Hold your winners unless you portfolio cannot take the risk.
except YY didn’t put in an outside day off of new highs – that’s what’s bothering me
chart looks similar to YY pullback day. sell today and miss the spike tomorrow. Hold your winners unless you portfolio cannot take the risk.
Everything is pulling back. FML I hate the afternoon sell off
Fed minutes at 2 easter
The market rallied hard after the last minutes. might be a good buy op
WOW, whoever saw that ESI setup, even though you admitted not taking it, congrats on spotting it. If you see any more like that, let us know 🙂 She’s a beauty.
angi… you are one dirty lady
any yolo ideas? want to take the position before fed minutes
if you want what a yolo represents, then PCLN. big mover, but it takes capital to do so as well.
CMG,
maybe too early
CRM – officially a 4 bagger for me.
Time elapsed since trade 19h 42m 13s
Etrade is a piece of shit, anyone else have to deal with that. Calling on wait for 30 mins to put stop loss orders in on options, incase it all goes to hell at 2pm. Apparently Scotttrade was down earlier too, wonder if its chinese DDOS attacks pissed off that everyone is making money hand over fist off of their burrito accounting scams.
Etrade just told me my account had no positions. The web is still crap – mobile app appears to be working.
Funny – even with “no positions” the account balance kept up in real time. Different software modules I suppose…
Seems like they are back up now, web wise.
Yah this is garbage, I’ve switched to TD but still need to transfer some things over. I’m going to demand the waive the full acct transfer fee.
Impossible to do that with options, and it’s too fast in here to move capital and risk missing things lol
ANGI – bot a few F15s down here
ditto
Hi OA,
I am currently subscribed to Monthly plan, which is going to expire today. How can I change monthly to yearly plan? And if I change to yearly plan do I get the old price as I am an existing member? Thanks!!!
the market is telling me that it’s OA’s beeatch! 😉
For those who entered the CRM trade yesterday, here are the factoids regarding exit:
January 57.50 calls (entry 0.20-0.25)
SPOW (Starting Point of Win) $60
Sell: 2.78
Return @ SPOW 1108%
Stretch Goal: 62
Sell: 4.57
Return @ Stretch 1886.96%
Happy Trading
@Lan – curious how you came up with 60 as a target? You probably already said and I didn’t see earlier
Volume pocket if it can clear the 57.00 hurdle.
Solar Rays attacking today